Towards a European migration policy

The stagnating West European population combined with the prosperous economic development of the European Community (EC) generate strong economic incentives for immigration. The drastic political changes in Eastern Europe have caused additional migration pressures. There are a variety of problems with the economic and political integration of migrants, however. The paper argues that immigration can compensate for demographic losses due to the decline and ageing of the European labor force. Economic theory further predicts welfare gains from free factor movements, which should be reaped as long as social costs and adjustment costs are not prohibitive. An active European migration policy is recommended to achieve this aim.This article is a completely revised version of CEPR Discussion Paper No. 641, presented by the second author at the CEPR Workshop The economies of migration on 23 November 1991 in London, UK, and at a hearing of the European Parliament on 25 May 1992 in Bruxelles, Belgium.     

Social status inconsistency and migration

We use NLSY79 panel data to extend the line of sociological research encouraged in the early work of Lenski by analyzing the effects of social status inconsistencies on the likelihood and direction of migration. Given that migration is often viewed as a way for individuals to locate prospective returns fitting for their qualifications, analysis of migration behavior offers an opportunity to examine the impact of status inconsistency. Key findings indicate that under-rewarded individuals, specifically relatively highly educated individuals in low status and low paying occupations, are more likely to migrate than are status consistent individuals. Over-rewarded individuals are less likely to migrate. These findings vary across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan places: individuals in nonmetropolitan areas who are under-rewarded or have mixed statuses have higher odds of migration than status consistent respondents. Individuals in metropolitan areas with inconsistent statuses are not more likely to migrate than status consistent respondents once other determinants of migration are entered in the analysis. Exploratory analysis shows migration increases the likelihood of achieving status consistency. Further examination of the interrelationship between migration and status inconsistency is recommended.     

Asymmetric social protection systems with migration

We study the consequences of the coexistence of different social protection systems on contribution rate levels and migration in a two-country model. Before any migration takes place, the levels of contribution rates are chosen by a representative elected in each country. The migration of each agent depends on her anticipation of other agents’ migrations. We show that the richest agents are attracted to the Bismarckian country. The poorest agents tend to migrate toward one country or the other depending on the Beveridgean country contribution rate. The Beveridgean country can set a higher contribution rate to limit the departures of rich agents.

Homogamy by education and migration status in Monterrey,Mexico: changes and continuities over time

This paper reviews changes in homogamy by migration status and educational level in Monterrey, Mexico, through the analysis of marriage patterns for two cohorts of men born in 1905–1934 and 1940–1969. Results show a significant increase in educational homogamy, as well as in homogamy by rural origins. The changes suggest that education has played an increasingly important role in the process of mate selection, although certain particularistic characteristics, such as being a rural immigrant, are still important in marriage formation. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the relationship between homogamy and social stratification.

Population dynamics and monetary policy

This paper shows that in a general equilibrium model with interest-rate feedback rules of the Taylor-type population dynamics give rise to multiple steady states. Under an active monetary policy, real determinacy occurs only around the steady state with zero net financial wealth, where aggregate consumption is equally distributed among agents of different generations. By contrast, in a neighborhood of the steady state displaying a positive stock of financial wealth and intergenerational inequality, real determinacy requires monetary policy to be passive. Changes in the demographic profile of the economy are shown to have relevant implications for the aggregate accumulation of wealth.

The impact of migration on the nonmetropolitan population age structure, 1960–1990

In this paper we examine the short-run impact of migration on the age composition of nonmetropolitan areas. Changes in age structure can have important consequences at the local level, and the influence of migration is particularly notable because it is highly age-graded, with different migration patterns found in various types of nonmetropolitan communities. Here we compare the impact of migration on age structures in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas across the last three decades. Within nonmetropolitan areas we also compare counties with colleges, commuting counties, agricultural counties and retirement counties. We conclude that several factors influence the impact of migration on age structure. Impacts will be greater in smaller than in larger population groups, and in areas that specialize in economic functions that impinge on a particular age group. But in general, migration adds young people to metropolitan areas and older people to nonmetropolitan areas. Differential impacts may be lessened in periods, such as 1970–80, when substantial population redistribution was underway. Nevertheless, prior and present fertility and mortality trends, and the cumulative history of migration well exceed the impact of migration on age in any ten-year interval.Abbreviations Metro Metropolitan - Nonmetro Nonmetropolitan An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Western Regional Science Association, Wailea, Hawaii, 22 February 1993.     

Self-selection in migration and returns to unobservables

We build a model of migration that considers both observable and unobservable individual characteristics and their returns across locations. We focus on the interprovincial migration patterns of Canadian physicians, in part, because physicians are paid on a fee-for-service basis. Because fees are exogenous, we can estimate a mixed conditional-logit model to determine the effects of individual- and destination-specific characteristics (particularly earnings differentials) on physician location decisions. We find, among other things, that individuals with greater earnings potential based on unobservables are more likely to migrate to provinces where the returns to such unobservables are greater.      

International migration and economic growth: a source country perspective

This study analyzes the impact of international migration on economic growth of a source country in a stochastic setting. The model accounts for endogenous fertility decisions and distinguishes between public and private schooling systems. We find that economic growth crucially depends on the international migration since the migration possibility will affect fertility decisions and school expenditures. Relaxation of restrictions on the emigration of high-skilled workers will damage the economic growth of a source country in the long run, although a ‘brain gain’ may happen in the short run. Furthermore, the growth rate of a source country under a private education regime will be more sensitive to the probability of migration than a country under a public education regime.

Environmental security and labor migration in Nepal

Do changes in environmental security that result from declining access to forest resources shape labor migration in a context where household production and consumption are intimately dependent on natural resources? Using 1996 household data from the Chitwan Valley of Nepal, we examined if a decrease in access to firewood increased the likelihood of migration of individuals for work. The results of multinomial logistic regression showed that, environmental insecurity was a significant predictor for migration regardless of destination, domestic or international. Labor requirements for household maintenance also played an important role in the decision to migrate. Management of forest resources and poverty alleviation by providing firewood substitutes and economic opportunities at the local level is likely to change the labor migration flow, which could be an important issue for future research.     

Supplemental security income, labor supply, and migration

The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program in the USA creates incentives for potential aged recipients to reduce labor supply prior to becoming eligible, and past research finds evidence of such behavior for older men. There may be a migration response to across-state variation in SSI benefits, which is of interest in its own right and can bias estimates of the effects of SSI benefits on labor supply. We fail to find evidence that older individuals migrate in response to SSI benefits, or that the labor supply disincentive effects of SSI are spurious and instead reflect migration behavior.The author Neumark is also a Senior Fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Research Fellow at Institute for the Study of Labor. The views expressed are not those of the Public Policy Institute of California.     

Family migration and changes in women's earnings: A decomposition analysis

Married women who migrate with their families experience relative earnings losses after migration. In this study, we use data from the 1987 Wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to explicitly examine the relative importance of three sources of those losses: labor force participation, hours of labor supplied, and wages. We estimate earnings models with Heckman's sample selection method for each of four years following migration. The results and subsequent coefficient decomposition methods show that labor force exit and a reduction of labor supplied contribute the largest share to the earnings penalty attached to migration for married women. The participation effect, although reduced in size, is significant for three years following migration. The wages of employed married women who migrate appear to be unaffected in any year following migration.     

Social vulnerability and migration in the wake of disaster: the case of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

This study explores the relationship between place-based social vulnerability and post-disaster migration in the U.S. Gulf Coast region following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Using county-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop a regional index of social vulnerability and examine how its various dimensions are related to migration patterns in the wake of the storms. Our results show that places characterized by greater proportions of disadvantaged populations, housing damage, and, to a lesser degree, more densely built environments were significantly more likely to experience outmigration following the hurricanes. Our results also show that these relationships were not spatially random, but rather exhibited significant geographic clustering. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for future research and public policy.     

Buffon's needle and the estimation of migration distances

A procedure is suggested for estimating migration distances from data on the proportion of migrants crossing regional boundaries. The method makes use of Buffon's needle, a problem in geometrical probability from the eighteenth century that was originally used as an empirical means of estimating π. The procedure is described for various scenarios that differ in their assumptions about region shape, the spatial distribution of population, and the distribution of migration distances. An application to migration distances in the United States is given, and additional attention is given to the estimation of intraregional migration distances.     

Modeling interregional migration flows: Continuity and change

This paper addresses the question of how to formally represent the spatial structure of an observed origin‐destination‐specific pattern of interregional migration flows. Such a representation allows an analyst to compare the spatial structures of different migration regimes and contrast their changes over time. It also facilitates the indirect estimation of migration flows, in the absence of such data, by allowing the analyst to impose a particular age or spatial structure when observed flow data are inadequate, partial, or completely nonexistent. In this paper, we focus on the level and allocation aspects (or the generation and distribution components) of age‐specific interregional migration flows. We find that over time these flows exhibit strong regularities that can be captured by generalized linear models, which can then be used in situations where data are inadequate or missing to indirectly estimate interregional migration patterns.     

我国三大都市圈人口迁移态势与影响因素分析

三大都市圈是中国重要的经济承载区和人口承载区,对三大都市圈的人口迁移研究对于整个中国的人口迁移研究来说很具有代表性。本文运用空间统计中有关方向和距离的研究方法来研究三大都市圈人口迁移规律。研究结果表明,影响地区之间人口迁移量的主要因素有经济差距、人口规模、地理距离和气候差别。根据分析结果,参照吉佛的引力模型建立三大都市圈与全国其它各地州市的人口迁移量模型。     

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

The inter- and intra-state migration of American families with work-disabled members is a neglected area of empirical study. Longitudinal migration and health status data from the 1996 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are merged with state-level welfare policy indicators to investigate migration behavior under welfare reform’s emphasis on requiring work and encouraging reliance on social support networks. We use a nested discrete-choice event history model that incorporates the departure decision and interstate destination choice in a single model that tests the effects of state-level welfare policy and economic opportunity characteristics, with state fixed effects, plus family sociodemographic characteristics and social networks, as the basis for comparing migration of families with and without work disabilities. The results show that although families with disabilities and illnesses are less likely to migrate than other families generally, they are “pushed” to migrate if they live in states that do not exempt them from TANF activities requirements. Furthermore, in-migration is inhibited by stringent state welfare illness exemption rules and high state unemployment rates. Intrastate migration is more likely among families who received family and community social support, regardless of work-disability status.     

Immigration and native migration in New York City, 1985–1990

The 1990 Public Use Micro Sample is used to analyze the relationship between immigration and outmigration of the native born in New York City. The study population is limited to native born males who lived in the five boroughs in 1985. The relationship between immigration and the probability of various kinds of moves is assessed using logistic regression. Results suggest that immigration has an insignificant effect on migratory behavior, with the exception of inter-borough migration. Unlike prior work, this study examines a single metro area, and does not limit itself to inter-state migration. These results are consistent with more recent work (Card 2001; Kritz et al. 2001), which has failed to find a positive labor market level effect of immigration on native migratory behavior. The inter-borough finding is consistent with the occurrence of voluntary residential segregation within the city, in which the native born move away from areas of immigrant concentration but do not leave the labor market, yet there is no direct evidence that this process occurred.     

九十年代以来我国人口迁移的若干新特点

根据对 2 0 0 0年人口普查资料的分析 ,认为二十世经九十年代以来我国人口迁移表现出如下新特点 :一是人口迁移与流动进入新阶段 ,二是人口迁移的宏观流向呈现新模式 ,三是城市内部迁移成为新热点 ,四是城乡人口互动蕴涵新挑战 ,五是“人口窗口”提供新机遇。