论计划生育政策的完善与调整——基于公共政策视角

我国妇女生育率已经稳定在更替水平之下20多年且将持续运行。文章从公共政策视角出发探究在低生育水平下未来生育政策和计划生育工作的取向,研究结果认为计划生育政策和计划生育工作的积极效用是值得肯定的。但是,在新的人口形势下必须对其进行改革。从公共政策效用来看,现有严格的计划生育政策对于其他公共政策需求压力增大,带来一系列较高的执行成本,需要适时对其进行调整和完善,把握好公共政策的整体性和预见性,使计划生育工作和政策可以发挥积极的引导和激励作用,促进和实现人口的长期均衡发展。     

中国碳交易政策扩散的影响因素、路径差异与减碳效果研究——基于省域数据的实证分析

碳交易市场的建设有助于实现全球碳平衡,而碳交易政策扩散对于促进中国碳交易市场的持续健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在我国碳交易市场建设不断深化的情境下,有必要识别省域碳交易政策扩散的多维影响要素,检验不同扩散路径下的政策效果差异,总结政策扩散经验。文章基于省域面板数据,首先运用事件史分析法,通过Cox比例风险模型发现,能源政策的落实、地方政府的综合服务能力和社会创新能力是碳交易政策扩散的关键驱动要素;其次,利用合成控制法进一步检验,发现主动扩散地区的减排效果弱于试点扩散地区,试点扩散地区对主动扩散地区的激励和带动作用有限,试点成果尚未得到有效学习和复制。为此,在我国统一碳交易市场的建设过程中,应强化中央统筹协调与地方相关举措之间的协同配合,依托有力的政策驱动激发我国碳交易制度活力,提升碳减排效果,形成路径清晰、梯度有序的政策扩散机制,以稳步实现2030“碳达峰”、2060“碳中和”的目标。     

人口城市化发展的主客观条件与制约因素

从国内外不同范围分析了人口城市化的客观条件,从成本与收益的视角分析了人口城市化的主观条件,从农业生产水平、水资源、土地资源、城市基础设施、制度与政策等领域分析了它们对人口城市化发展的制约作用。     

The decline of fertility: Innovation or adjustment process

Abstract In Western society the process of fertility decline is often regarded as an innovation process. The assumptions behind this approach seem rather questionable, and the diffusion lags or gradients of limited importance. Both Swedish and other European data are used as illustrations. It is suggested that the decline be treated within the wider sociological perspective of a time-consuming adjustment or change process, not necessarily starting from a position of completely uncontrolled fertility within marriage. The situation in to-day's high fertility populations is briefly discussed against this background.     

A politico-economic model of aging,technology adoption and growth

This paper provides a politico-economic theory that explains how an economy evolves when the longevity of its citizens is jointly determined with the process of economic development. We propose a three-period overlapping generation model where agents’ decisions embrace two dimensions: a private choice about education and a public one on innovation policy. We find that (a) poverty traps can emerge in human capital accumulation, (b) higher life expectancy increases the incentive to innovate for both young and adults, (c) different political configurations can arise depending on endogenous demographic structures and (d) the steady state can entertain both innovation and its absence.     

Estimating optimal expenditures on family planning in developing economies

This paper develops an analytical model of the effect of family planningexpenditures on per capita income. The perspective is that of constrained optimization: a predetermined level of overall development resources is to be allocated to family planning programs and alternative uses in the form of expansion of the generalized capital stock (plant and machinery, education and training, and social infrastructure). The principal functions of the model are power forms, so that an explicit solution may be obtained for the optimal ratio of family planning expenditures to overall development resources. Important insights into the nature of this policy question are derived from consideration of the formula. In addition, tentative numerical estimates of the optimal ratio are presented for several developing economies. These estimates suggest that quite a substantial proportion of overall development resources should be allocated to family planning programs in most developing nations. The paper is concluded with a brief evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the optimization approach to population policy issues.     

中国老龄者看护社会化政策体系探析

文章从公共政策设计的角度,提出未来中国政府构建看护社会化政策体系的构想。在分析我国的老龄者看护问题的时间资源、我国经济发展的现状及前景、社会贫富的分化程度以及社会文化传统影响等的基础上,对我国老龄者看护政策体系做出生态预测和模式的选择。     

Measuring Accessibility for Inclusive Development: A Census Based Index

State is often involved in the challenging process of judicious allocation and apportioning of resources for an inclusive growth through creating infrastructure and ensuring accessibility- the “ability of the people to reach and engage in opportunities and activities”. The issue at the heart of the debate concerns with the “opportunities” available in a geographic area and the inhabitants’ use of those opportunities in terms of their “behaviour”. The extant literature suggests that the dominant component of the accessibility is mobility infrastructure. The present paper argues that the impact of the human development and the information infrastructure should also be considered. This paper uses the Indian census data of 2001 and develops the methodology for creating an accessibility index for a geographic unit. The paper also discusses the use of the accessibility index (AI) as a tool for evaluating the efficacy of a public policy initiative towards decreasing the exclusion of geographic units. Validation of the tool is done using the patient inflow data at a large charitable hospital in Central India and household level employment data from National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS).     

On Well-Being and Public Policy: Are We Capable of Questioning the Hegemony of Happiness?

Measuring the well-being of citizens has become established practice in many advanced democracies. In the move to go beyond GDP, indicators of subjective well-being (SWB) have come to the fore, and are increasingly seen as providing a ‘yardstick’ to guide public policy. A strong version of this position is that SWB can (and should) provide the sole basis on which to design and evaluate public policy. This article argues that the increasing dominance of the subjective definition of well-being is problematic, and amounts to a hegemony of happiness. The article examines the fundamental assumptions behind different accounts of well-being, and develops a critique of the ‘strong position’ that sees SWB as the ultimate guide for public policy. First, the connections between the modern debate and classical schools of thought are discussed, and the strong Benthamite SWB approach is contrasted with the alternative Aristotelian capabilities approach. Next, the article examines current practice, using the UK’s Measuring National Well-being Programme as a case study. Finally, the article concludes that SWB has questionable legitimacy as a summary indicator of objective quality of life, and does not, on its own, provide a reliable metric for public policy. The capabilities approach, which takes a pluralist perspective on well-being and prioritises freedom and opportunity, offers a richer and more useful foundation for policy.     

Time and Money: A New Look at Poverty and the Barriers to Physical Activity in Canada

The relationship between time, money, and regular participation in physical activities, especially at the intensities and durations required to improve one’s health, is an important public health and social policy issue. The objective of this research is to develop a better understanding of the extent to which income poverty and time poverty act as barriers to regular participation in moderate or higher intensity physical activities. This study uses Canadian time use data collected in 2005 in order to measure income poverty, time poverty, and active living. Objective measures of physical activity engagement (participation rates, daily occurrences, and daily time budgets) are used to explore differences between the rich and poor categories of both income and time wealth. The income and time wealth categories are corroborated using subjective assessments of stress and perceived barriers to regular participation in sports. The results illustrate the multidimensional nature of poverty, but from a public health and social policy perspective, time poverty may be more important than income poverty as a barrier to regular physical activity engagement.     

可持续生计分析框架下西藏农牧区贫困人口生计状况分析

生计概念为研究者提供了一种观察和研究农村扶贫、环境保护等农村发展问题的视角。本文借助可持续生计分析框架,对西藏农牧区贫困人口进行分析。研究发现,农牧区贫困人口生计资本整体呈现脆弱性,生计资本之间互为因果,呈非线性关系。由于生计资本的限制,农牧民所能选择的生计策略有限,进而导致贫困与生态环境问题加剧。研究认为,政府在西藏农牧区扶贫开发过程中,要从影响农牧民生计资本出发,提高对农牧民可行能力的培养,加大基础公共设施与生态移民并重,同时,通过产业、科技等构建农牧区生态文明,促进农牧民脱贫致富。     

基于国际人力资本流动视角的中印技术创新模式比较研究

文章通过构建企业创新生产函数并引入国际人力资本流动因素,对中印两国技术创新的影响因素进行计量分析,并重点考察了国际人力资本流动的作用。实证结果表明,中国的技术创新主要来自高研发投入和以FDI技术溢出为代表的国际技术扩散,而印度则更多地依赖国际人力资本流动引致的技术创新、内需及制度方面的政府支持,以FDI为代表的国际技术扩散对其技术创新作用甚微。印度在国际人力资本流动推动技术创新方面比中国更具优势,中国技术创新模式虽然取得了一定成绩,但与印度依靠人才国际化推动创新的模式相比潜力相对不足。     

子女性别和孩次对中国农村代际货币转移的影响

代际转移动机对公共项目的决策具有重要影响,货币转移则是代际转移的重要和常见形式。国内对于子女性别和孩次对代际转移影响的研究处于空白状态。通过采用利他主义和交换假说两种理论模型来定义代际转移动机,从农村地区父母的视角分析子女性别、孩次对代际转移动机的影响。结果显示,子女的孩次对代际转移动机有显著的影响,而子女性别的影响并不显著。因此,政府制定相关政策时应考虑农村地区子女的孩次对代际货币转移的影响,从而提高公共资源的效用。     

Exclusion and vulnerability on public transit: experiences of transit dependent riders in Portland,Oregon

In urban areas, the inequitable distribution of transit systems and services has been shown to reproduce safety and environmental risks – potentially exacerbating preexisting inequities. Thus, how vulnerable populations access and utilize public transportation is of critical concern to urban scholars. This paper utilizes focus group data to explore how transit-dependent (particularly low-income) riders engage with the public transit system in Portland, Oregon. We illustrate specific ways in which transit-dependent riders experience marginalization and exclusion. We find that certain groups, particularly mothers with young children and those with disabilities are not well served by a public infrastructure oriented toward an ‘ideal rider’ who is an economically stable, able-bodied, white, male commuter. We conclude that a public infrastructure meant to serve all riders equitably, yet which fails to consider the unique experiences of marginalized transit users risks further amplifying existing social vulnerabilities and reinforcing gender, racial, and class inequalities.     

政策创新的地理扩散——基于暂住证制度的地方实践分析

以暂住证制度为例，从时间和空间两个角度，对这一政策创新的地理扩散模式进行了分析。结果表明，尽管该政策的扩散受到了明显的垂直影响，在水平尺度上，表现出了明显的扩散效应，扩散曲线大致为S形：扩散早期，政策创新与经济社会发展条件关联度较高，随后政策扩散受到了显著的邻近区域影响，模仿学习占据主导，创新性表现不明显，政策的扩散甚至演变为公文的传播。准确找出地区面临的公共问题，以创新性的方式积极应对，全面贯彻实施政策创新，是经济社会迅速发展的背景之下地方政府的因应之道。     

Implications of demographic change for civil society in Germany

Germany is currently beginning to become aware of the consequences of a process of demographic change, initially triggered by extremely low levels of fertility. The population recently started to decline, the demographic dividend is coming to an end and the ageing of society accelerates. Particularly places in peripheral regions are already seriously affected by this process which will increase in pace and spread spatially. Shrinking and ageing populations are associated with a declining purchasing power as well as fewer local tax revenues for public and private services and infrastructure. The population necessary to maintain and economically justify the provision of public services and infrastructure at the current level will in many cases shrink below required thresholds. Commercial services will probably also continue to diminish at such places. Volunteer organizations may provide some of the services which the local administrations can no longer afford to provide and thus strengthen civil society and social cohesion. But can this be an option for communities with a shrinking and ageing population in which qualified younger people are lost through out-migration? The paper presents a new projection of the future demographic capacity for volunteer organizations and concludes that the decay of demographic capacity will affect most regions and sectors of civil society. The loss will be most prominent in remote areas with low population density and in sectors where the need to compensate for declining public services and infrastructure will be highest.     

促进我国流动人口基本公共卫生服务均等化的筹资机制研究

从筹资的角度分析制约我国地方政府向流动人口均等化供给基本公共卫生服务的原因,总结国外流动人口基本公共卫生服务筹资的经验,提出筹资机制改革建议。研究结果表明：我国现行的以常住人口为基数核定和安排基本公共卫生服务筹资责任的政策安排,给地方政府回避流动人口基本公共卫生服务的供给责任提供了制度空间,导致了流动人口公共卫生服务筹资“两头落空”的现象,影响了服务供给的均等化水平。我国须进一步强化中央政府的投入责任,保证流动人口基本公共卫生服务筹资的总体充足性,同时完善转移支付制度,增加对人口流入地的基本公共卫生服务经费补助金额,从而填补短期流动人口筹资政策的空白。     

On the Determinants of Mortality Reductions in the Developing World

This article presents and critically discusses evidence on the determinants of mortality reductions in developing countries. It argues that increases in life expectancy between 1960 and 2000 were largely independent of improvements in income. The author characterizes the age and cause‐of‐death profile of changes in mortality and assesses what can be learned about the determinants of these changes from the international evidence and from country‐specific studies. Public health infrastructure, immunization, targeted programs, and the spread of less palpable forms of knowledge all seem to have been important factors. Finally, the article suggests that the evolution of health inequality across and within countries is intrinsically related to the process of diffusion of new technologies and to the nature of these new technologies, public or private.     

The real cost of growth in Oregon

The costs of growth are little known, poorly understood and typically understated. This study is an initial effort to provide a more complete understanding of the current costs of growth in Oregon. While more than two dozen cost areas are identified, the focus is on basic physical infrastructure required for urban development. A proportionate share costing method is used to determine the public infrastructure costs associated with the construction of a typical single-family house. Each increment of growth is allocated costs for only the increment of system capacity required to serve it. Cost figures are from representative projects recently completed or underway in Oregon. The result is a composite of recent cost data selected to be representative of the state as a whole. An analysis of seven public infrastructure cost areas associated with the construction of a typical single-family house—including public facilities for schools, sewer, storm drainage, roads, water service, parks and recreation, and fire protection—shows that the total cost is about $24,500 per house. Oregon's development impact fees are recovering only a fraction of these costs. As a result, most of these public infrastructure costs are distributed across the entire population of a community through property taxes or general obligation bonds, whereas the benefits of these investments accrue primarily to the new development. The methodology used in this study can be easily replicated and may provide a useful tool for communities trying to obtain better information about the economic and fiscal impacts of urban growth. A review of relevant literature and references are provided.     

Der dreifache Bezug zur Arbeit – Transformation öffentlicher Dienste und berufliche Identität

During the last 2 decades the public administration and the public services have undergone far-reaching transformations that resulted in substantial changes in work and employment. This contribution discusses the question as to how workers perceive these upheavals and what consequences these have for their occupational identity. Based on empirical research on an Austrian town the authors show how local government employees, doctors and nurses at the community hospital and the post office’s deliverers and counter clerks interpret the transformations in particular from the perspective of their occupational self-conception. The article makes clear that using the concept of a threefold relationship to work makes it easier to understand workers’ perceptions, interpretations and reactions. Such a threefold relationship to work includes a labour power perspective, a subject perspective and the public sector ethos.