The impact of family planning programs on fertility in developing countries: A critical evaluation

Controversy surrounds the question: do organized family planning programs produce fertility decline in developing countries that is independent of other causes? Two major conclusions emerge from this critical evaluation of 26 past studies on this question. First, the disparate results are associated with the differential validity of the studies. Second, the fertility declines or variations analyzed were generated mainly be indigenous causes, that is, they would have occurred and the means for bringing them about would have been available without family planning programs. Hence, the programs had little net effect on fertility.     

Alternatives and options in computer content analysis

First developed in the early 1960s, computer content analysis methods stimulated renewed interest in the quantitative analysis of verbal materials. Continued research and development of such methods produced a range of current alternatives and options. Investigators can choose between advanced systems varying widely in amount of theoretical prestructuring required and complexity of units of analysis, or they can devise less complex systems built upon basic work processing programs.     

Dynamic models and attainment in the workplace

The two most marked trends in recent stratification studies are: (1) the shift away from a statical approach to attainment and toward a dynamical representation of achievement, and (2) the shift away from the assumption that achievement is largely a matter of individual characteristics, and toward the view that achievement is the outcome of an employer-employee exchange of productive resources for earnings and status. This paper forges a link between these parallel trends by elaborating on previous formulations of dynamic models of achievement and applying the results to the analysis of earnings attainment in an internal labor market. The modeling section of the paper joins within a single framework the growing interest in ascertaining how a given structure of opportunity shapes achievement and in determining the different points in the career line at which individual background and resource variables impact attainment. Special attention is devoted to the problems facing researchers who wish to bring a dynamic conceptualization of achievement to cross-sectional or otherwise deficient data. Although the empirical application of the various models is largely meant to be illustrative, it is of interest in its own right because it goes substantially beyond previous efforts in this area.     

Bringing the cops back in: A study of efforts to make the criminal justice system more responsive to incidents of family violence

This paper examines the ways in which the criminal justice system typically responds to incidents of violence between adult members of the same household and then using a three equation, nonrecursive time series model considers the impact of efforts in one locale to improve law enforcement practices. Three questions are addressed: (a) can the apparent underreporting of domestic violence by police be improved; (b) can the quality of information funneled from police to the District Attorney's office be enhanced; and (c) can the number of offenders held accountable for their actions be increased?     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

The perception of crime and punishment: A multidimensional scaling analysis

Two studies were conducted to determine (a) the degree to which seriousness is an underlying dimension in the perception of crimes, (b) the relationship of seriousness and other perceived properties of crimes with punishments prescribed by law and punishments assigned by subjects themselves, and (c) the relationship between personality variables and both the salience of perceptual dimensions and the severity of punishments assigned. Similarity judgments for two sets of crimes were multidimensionally scaled and in both cases the four-dimensional solutions were optimal. None of the dimensions was highly associated with judged seriousness. As in previous investigations, seriousness was only moderately related to punishments prescribed by law. However, certain other perceptual dimensions were found to be associated with legally prescribed punishments, although these were not the same dimensions which were aligned with the severity of punishments called for by the subjects. Authoritarianism and Locus of Control were significantly related to the salience of perceptual dimensions for one of the two sets of crimes. High Authoritarians called for more severe punishments to be levied for crimes on three of the dimensions in one set, but assigned significantly longer sentences than other subjects only for capital offenses.     

Separating age,period, and cohort effects in white U.S. fertility, 1920–1970

Four models are developed to describe the odds transformation of period- and age-specific fertility rates as products of age, period, and cohort effects. These are applied to data for white U.S. women age 15–44 from 1920 to 1970, with equal weights given to each rate. All models which include age fit subsets of the data extremely well. Per effect, the incorporation of periods improves the fit much more than the incorporation of cohorts. It is shown that first differences are invariant in two-effect models, and second differences are invariant in the three-effect models.     

Durkheim and pierce on suicide and economic change

This paper is an attempt to build upon Pierce's important finding, a confirmation of Durkheim, that any form of economic disruption or change increases suicide. In this paper, certain aspects of Pierce's method are criticized. The analysis of an expanded and updated data set, using analytic techniques designed for time-series data, suggests that economic disruption per se is not as relevant to the suicide rate as are economic hardship and economic deterioration or improvement.     

Socioeconomic indexes and the new 1980 census occupational classification scheme

Because of their usefulness in a wide variety of research, socioeconomic scores have been revised several times to incorporate changes in the relevant components of the occupational structure and to conform with the changing census occupational classification schemes. The major purpose of this paper is to provide socioeconomic scores for the 1980 census occupational classification scheme. First, however, we review earlier versions of the socioeconomic index (SEI), summarize the relevant disparities between the 1970 and 1980 census occupational classificatory schemes, and then explain in detail the procedures used to reconcile the SEI with 1980 occupational codes. We also show that, although the 1980 occupational classificatory scheme differs radically from the 1970 occupational scheme, the socioconomic scores for 1980 occupational data replicate features found in 1970 data.     

Do females necessarily have the same occupational status scores as males? A conceptual and empirical examination of the Duncan Socioeconomic Status Index and Nam-Powers Occupational Status Scores

Social Science researchers have advanced important yet somewhat contradictory conclusions regarding the different economic and occupational reward structures faced by men and women. Income and wage differences between men and women have been shown to be sizable and persistent throughout the occupational hierarchy. Conversely, gender differences in occupational status, commonly scaled by the Duncan Socioeconomic Index, have been shown to be small or nonexistent in most studies. In an attempt to investigate this incongruity, the present study undertakes a comparison of the Duncan SEI and the Nam-Powers Occupational Status Scores in an empirical study of the occupational position of white men and women in 65 large standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs) in 1970. While the findings of earlier studies showing no gender differences in occupational status are for the most part replicated using the Duncan SEI, use of the Nam-Powers scores prompts a much different conclusion. Large status differences between men and women are indicated using this latter scale, differences which are very much in line with income differences commonly cited. We suggest that the Nam-Powers metric should be used instead of the Duncan SEI in studies of occupational status of women and men.     

The effects of labor market segmentation on economic resources in retirement

Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to explore the determinants of economic resource levels among recently retired workers. Three income determination models are used to examine significant predictors of economic status using a broad measure of economic well being that includes both retirement income and wealth. Findings indicate that variables used in status attainment, human capital, and labor market segmentation models explain substantial amounts of variance. Applying these models to the longitudinal data provide suggestive information about the crucial life-span characteristics and circumstances that determine economic status as workers enter retirement.     

Pleas,priors, and prison: Racial/ethnic differences in sentencing

Final case disposition and sentencing decisions for whites, blacks, and Chicanos are modeled with event-history data from the State of California. Dynamic analyses are used to link processing models and theories. The three-way interaction of (1) pleading guilty × (2) racial/ethnic group membership × (3) the extent of prior court experience on rates of moving through the legal system is assessed, controlling for other legitimate and nonlegitimate influences. In a jurisdiction handling large numbers of defendants representing diverse racial/ethnic and cultural groups under determinate sentencing, the timing of legal processing is shown to be critical. Results demonstrate that pleading guilty increases the speed of processing most when sentences do not involve incarceration, though this effect is not found for second or later arrests of Chicanos. Generally, theories of resource mobilization receive greater support than cultural stereotyping.     

Canonical analysis and optimal criterion validity scaling

This article suggests methods for forming linear composites which will have either optimum (maximum) criterion validity or an optimum ratio of valid to reliable variance. These methods may be of interest to researchers whose data contain substantial systematic but invalid components. These techniques are formally related to canonical correlation analysis, and the output from standard canonical correlation computer programs can be directly used in forming the composites.     

On the mode of administering a questionnaire and responses to open-ended items

Concurrently administered personal and telephone surveys are compared to measure differences between the modes for identical questions. Speed of questioning is found to be greater in telephone interviews than personal interviews. The faster pace of telephone interviews is linked to shorter answers to open-ended items on the telephone. The tendency to reduce such responses is disproportionately exhibited by younger, affluent respondents who tend to provide detailed responses in personal interviews.     

Recursive models for categorical data

Standard methods for recursive models with continuous endogenous variables are extended to models with categorical endogenous variables. The concept of a reduced-form equation is generalized in a natural way to cover nonlinear regression functions and, in particular, models with categorical endogenous variables. Maximum-likelihood estimation and asymptotic chi-square tests are described. Two numerical examples are presented: a linear recursive two-equation model for all-categorical data, and a combined linear and logit three-equation recursive model with both categorical and continuous endogenous variables. Limitations of the present work and directions for further extension are noted.     

Aggregate male and female labor force participation functions: An analysis of structural differences, 1947–1977

The hypothesis that the structure of the forces that affect male and female labor force participation rates are distinct has been corroborated in numerous studies using microdata. This paper examines the validity of this structural distinctiveness hypothesis in the context of aggregate, time series data on male and female labor force participation in the post-World War II United States. Standard economic and sociological theories are used to specify sex-specific participation functions that contain indexes of the sex-specific general opportunity for employment, the sex-specific rates of participation in the armed forces and in postsecondary schooling institutions, the average real wage rate, the average number of hours worked, and the fertility rate. It is found that the female rate is more responsive than the male rate to the general employment opportunities and average hours indexes, but less responsive to the wage rate. Also, the female rate responds positively to the armed forces participation and college enrollment rates, whereas the male rate is negatively related to these indexes. However, no evidence is found for another component of the structural distinctiveness hypothesis, namely, that the fertility rate bears a consistent negative relationship to the female participation rate. While this relationship may have held during the early postwar years, it seems to have been substantially attentuated since the early 1960s. Prospects for convergence of the male and female participation functions are evaluated. Although current social trends suggest that the female function eventually will resemble more closely the male funtion, it is concluded that substantial sex differences are likely to persist for at least another decade. Implications of this for the structure of the labor force participation functions used in macroeconometric forecasting models are discussed.