Sensitivity of the portmanteau statistic in time series modeling

The portmanteau statistic is commonly used for testing goodness-of-fit of time series models. However, this lack of fit test may depend on one or several atypical observations in the series. We investigate the sensitivity of the portmanteau statistic in the presence of additive outliers. Diagnostics are developed to assess both local and global influence. Three practical examples demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed diagnostics.     

Book Reviews

The Levene test is a widely used test for detecting differences in dispersion. The modified Levene transformation using sample medians is considered in this article. After Levene's transformation the data are not normally distributed, hence, nonparametric tests may be useful. As the Wilcoxon rank sum test applied to the transformed data cannot control the type I error rate for asymmetric distributions, a permutation test based on reallocations of the original observations rather than the absolute deviations was investigated. Levene's transformation is then only an intermediate step to compute the test statistic. Such a Levene test, however, cannot control the type I error rate when the Wilcoxon statistic is used; with the Fisher–Pitman permutation test it can be extremely conservative. The Fisher–Pitman test based on reallocations of the transformed data seems to be the only acceptable nonparametric test. Simulation results indicate that this test is on average more powerful than applying the t test after Levene's transformation, even when the t test is improved by the deletion of structural zeros.     

The Effect of a Variable Data Point on Hypothesis Tests for Means

The effect of a single variable data point, x, on the usual test statistics for traditional hypothesis tests for means is analyzed. It is shown that an outlier may have a profound and unexpected effect on the test statistic. Although it might appear that an outlier would tend to lend support to the alternate hypothesis, it may in fact detract from the significance of the test. In one-population tests and analysis of variance (ANOVA), the value of x that maximizes the significance of the test statistic is given. This value does not have to be unusually large or small. In fact, it often falls within the range of the other sample points. In the general one-population case, the limiting value for the test statistic is shown to be +1. In the case involving more than one population, it is shown that the limiting value of the test statistic is a function only of the number of members in the samples and not their relative values. Special cases are identified in which the test statistic is shown to have unique characteristics depending on the characteristics of the data.     

Data-Transformation and Test of Fit for the Generalized Pareto Hypothesis

In this article, we consider Crámer–von Mises type goodness-of-fit statistics for the Generalized Pareto law. The tests involve a certain transformation of the original observations, which, at least in the case of completely specified null distribution, may be viewed as transforming to uniformity and comparing the resulting moments of arbitrary positive order to those of a uniform distribution. The method is shown to be consistent, and the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic is derived. Simulation results indicate that the proposed test compares well with standard methods based on the empirical distribution function.     

Comparing Two Survival Time Distributions: An Investigation of Several Weight Functions for the Weighted Logrank Statistic

In survival analysis, it is often of interest to test whether or not two survival time distributions are equal, specifically in the presence of censored data. One very popular test statistic utilized in this testing procedure is the weighted logrank statistic. Much attention has been focused on finding flexible weight functions to use within the weighted logrank statistic, and we propose yet another. We demonstrate our weight function to be more stable than one of the most popular, which is given by Fleming and Harrington, by means of asymptotic normal tests, bootstrap tests and permutation tests performed on two datasets with a variety of characteristics.     

A confidence interval for the scale parameter based on sukhtmes two-sample statistic

Sukhatme (1957) introduced a statistic which may be used to test the equality of variances in two independent samples from continuous distributions, centered at zero. It has become evident that this statistic cound be used to construct, analytically, a confidence interval for the scale parameter relating the two random variables(of.Laubscher (1968) and Noether (1967, pp. 66-69 and 1972)). In view of this additional use of the statistic, and since no tables of critical values exist, we provide such a table which makes the application of the statistic a practical proposition. In addition, a normal approximation is suggested for the use outside the range of Table III and the accuracy of this approximation is investigated. The Sukhatme test applied to sample values reduced by t n e i r medians i s studied in a small simulation exercise. It appears that this test when used in conjunction with the critical values of Sukhatme's statistic, is a very conservative one and that it is probably fairly robust with respect to the underlying population distribution.     

Adaptive choice of scale tests in flexible two-stage designs with applications in experimental ecology and clinical trials

In this paper, the two-sample scale problem is addressed within the rank framework which does not require to specify the underlying continuous distribution. However, since the power of a rank test depends on the underlying distribution, it would be very useful for the researcher to have some information on it in order to use the possibly most suitable test. A two-stage adaptive design is used with adaptive tests where the data from the first stage are used to compute a selector statistic to select the test statistic for stage 2. More precisely, an adaptive scale test due to Hall and Padmanabhan and its components are considered in one-stage and several adaptive and non-adaptive two-stage procedures. A simulation study shows that the two-stage test with the adaptive choice in the second stage and with Liptak combination, when it is not more powerful than the corresponding one-stage test, shows, however, a quite similar power behavior. The test procedures are illustrated using two ecological applications and a clinical trial.     

Tests for homogeneity of risk differences in stratified design with correlated bilateral data

ABSTRACT

Correlated bilateral data arise from stratified studies involving paired body organs in a subject. When it is desirable to conduct inference on the scale of risk difference, one needs first to assess the assumption of homogeneity in risk differences across strata. For testing homogeneity of risk differences, we herein propose eight methods derived respectively from weighted-least-squares (WLS), the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) estimator, the WLS method in combination with inverse hyperbolic tangent transformation, and the test statistics based on their log-transformation, the modified Score test statistic and Likelihood ratio test statistic. Simulation results showed that four of the tests perform well in general, with the tests based on the WLS method and inverse hyperbolic tangent transformation always performing satisfactorily even under small sample size designs. The methods are illustrated with a dataset.     

Optimizing the wald-wolfowitz runs statistic using a linkage tolerance: guidelines based on computer simulation

When performing the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test, observations from two samples are combined and ordered, and the test statistic is the number of sequences of observations from the same sample. This test statistic is equivalent to the number of links between observations from different samples, if we consider each observation to be linked to the next higher and next lower observations. While it is known that the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test is not very powerful, what would be the effect on the power of the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test if all observations within a specified Euclidean distance or “tolerance” were linked instead? This question is motivated by the simulation results of Whaley and Quade (1985), who found that for normal data, the power of the multi-dimensional runs test using a linkage tolerance compared favorably to Hotelling's T² in some instances. The results of a similar simulation procedure show that the power of the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test does indeed improve when observations are linked using a tolerance. The results also suggest that a better large sample approximation to the distribution of the test statistic needs to be found.     

Application of skew-normal distribution for detecting differential expression to microRNA data

Traditional statistical modeling of continuous outcome variables relies heavily on the assumption of a normal distribution. However, in some applications, such as analysis of microRNA (miRNA) data, normality may not hold. Skewed distributions play an important role in such studies and might lead to robust results in the presence of extreme outliers. We apply a skew-normal (SN) distribution, which is indexed by three parameters (location, scale and shape), in the context of miRNA studies. We developed a test statistic for comparing means of two conditions replacing the normal assumption with SN distribution. We compared the performance of the statistic with other Wald-type statistics through simulations. Two real miRNA datasets are analyzed to illustrate the methods. Our simulation findings showed that the use of a SN distribution can result in improved identification of differentially expressed miRNAs, especially with markedly skewed data and when the two groups have different variances. It also appeared that the statistic with SN assumption performs comparably with other Wald-type statistics irrespective of the sample size or distribution. Moreover, the real dataset analyses suggest that the statistic with SN assumption can be used effectively for identification of important miRNAs. Overall, the statistic with SN distribution is useful when data are asymmetric and when the samples have different variances for the two groups.     

Pena's statistic for the Liu regression

In fitting regression model, one or more observations may have substantial effects on estimators. These unusual observations are precisely detected by a new diagnostic measure, Pena's statistic. In this article, we introduce a type of Pena's statistic for each point in Liu regression. Using the forecast change property, we simplify the Pena's statistic in a numerical sense. It is found that the simplified Pena's statistic behaves quite well as far as detection of influential observations is concerned. We express Pena's statistic in terms of the Liu leverages and residuals. The normality of this statistic is also discussed and it is demonstrated that it can identify a subset of high Liu leverage outliers. For numerical evaluation, simulated studies are given and a real data set has been analysed for illustration.     

A Generalization of Shapiro–Wilk's Test for Multivariate Normality

A goodness-of-fit test for multivariate normality is proposed which is based on Shapiro–Wilk's statistic for univariate normality and on an empirical standardization of the observations. The critical values can be approximated by using a transformation of the univariate standard normal distribution. A Monte Carlo study reveals that this test has a better power performance than some of the best known tests for multinormality against a wide range of alternatives.     

Sequential change detection in the presence of unknown parameters

It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time. Further, the parameters of both the pre- and post- change distributions may be unknown. In Hawkins and Zamba (Technometrics 47(2):164–173, 2005), the sequential generalised likelihood ratio test was introduced for detecting changes in this context, under the assumption that the observations follow a Gaussian distribution. However, we show that the asymptotic approximation used in their test statistic leads to it being conservative even when a large numbers of observations is available. We propose an improved procedure which is more efficient, in the sense of detecting changes faster, in all situations. We also show that similar issues arise in other parametric change detection contexts, which we illustrate by introducing a novel monitoring procedure for sequences of Exponentially distributed random variable, which is an important topic in time-to-failure modelling.     

Aligned rank statistics for repeated measurement models with orthonormal design, employing a Chernoff–Savage approach

In this paper, aligned rank statistics are considered for testing hypotheses regarding the location in repeated measurement designs, where the design matrix for each set of measurements is orthonormal. Such a design may, for instance, be used when testing for linearity. It turns out that the centered design matrix is not of full rank, and therefore it does not quite satisfy the usual conditions in the literature. The number of degrees of freedom of the limiting chi-square distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis, however, is not affected, unless rather special hypotheses are tested. An independent derivation of this limiting distribution is given, using the Chernoff–Savage approach. In passing, it is observed that independence of the choice of aligner, which in the location problem is well-known to be due to cancellation, may in scale problems occur as a result of the type of score function suitable for scale tests. A possible extension to multivariate data is briefly indicated.     

The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio when the model is incorrect

Classical results on the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic rely on the assumption that the model chosen to construct the test statistic be correct. The model is said to be correct if it contains the true distribution of the observations. In this paper the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic is derived without the condition that the model need be correct.     

Fractiles of an extended multiple outlier test

The widely-used Tietjen—Moore multiple outlier statistic has a defect as originally proposed in that it may test the wrong observations as outliers. The defect is corrected by redefinition and the statistic extended to make use of possible additional information on underlying variance. Results of simulation of the revised statistic are presented.     

Efficiency of t-Test and Hotelling's T 2-Test After Box-Cox Transformation

Early investigations of the effects of non-normality indicated that skewness has a greater effect on the distribution of t-statistic than does kurtosis. When the distribution is skewed, the actual p-values can be larger than the values calculated from the t-tables. Transformation of data to normality has shown good results in the case of univariate t-test. In order to reduce the effect of skewness of the distribution on normal-based t-test, one can transform the data and perform the t-test on the transformed scale. This method is not only a remedy for satisfying the distributional assumption, but it also turns out that one can achieve greater efficiency of the test. We investigate the efficiency of tests after a Box-Cox transformation. In particular, we consider the one sample test of location and study the gains in efficiency for one-sample t-test following a Box-Cox transformation. Under some conditions, we prove that the asymptotic relative efficiency of transformed t-test and Hotelling's T ²-test of multivariate location with respect to the same statistic based on untransformed data is at least one.     

A remark on testing covariance structure in a mixed model

Khuri (1989) tests for the intraclass covariance structure implied by the balanced two-way mixed analysis of variance model by computing wilks' likelihood ratio test statistic using the sample covariance matrix of the vectors of treatment means. In the unbalanced case he uses a linear transformation to augment the treatment-mean vectors to vectors which are expected to satisfy the intraclass structure, and then computes Wilks' statistic using these augmented vectors. We point out that the augmentation process is in fact equivalent to deleting observations until the design is balanced, so that the augmented test actually uses less information than that contained in the original sample means.     

Accurate inference for scale and location families

A great deal of inference in statistics is based on making the approximation that a statistic is normally distributed. The error in doing so is generally O(n^?1/2), where n is the sample size and can be considered when the distribution of the statistic is heavily biased or skewed. This note shows how one may reduce the error to O(n^?(j+1)/2), where j is a given integer. The case considered is when the statistic is the mean of the sample values of a continuous distribution with a scale or location change after the sample has undergone an initial transformation, which may depend on an unknown parameter. The transformation corresponding to Fisher's score function yields an asymptotically efficient procedure.     

Robust weighted one-way ANOVA: Improved approximation and efficiency

A robust test for the one-way ANOVA model under heteroscedasticity is developed in this paper. The data are assumed to be symmetrically distributed, apart from some outliers, although the assumption of normality may be violated. The test statistic to be used is a weighted sum of squares similar to the Welch [1951. On the comparison of several mean values: an alternative approach. Biometrika 38, 330-336.] test statistic, but any of a variety of robust measures of location and scale for the populations of interest may be used instead of the usual mean and standard deviation. Under the commonly occurring condition that the robust measures of location and scale are asymptotically normal, we derive approximations to the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis and to its distribution under alternative hypotheses. An expression for relative efficiency is derived, thus allowing comparison of the efficiency of the test as a function of the choice of the location and scale estimators used in the test statistic. As an illustration of the theory presented here, we apply it to three commonly used robust location–scale estimator pairs: the trimmed mean with the Winsorized standard deviation; the Huber Proposal 2 estimator pair; and the Hampel robust location estimator with the median absolute deviation.