Projection Measures And Estimation Variances Of Intensities

The paper investigates random processes of geometrical objects in Euclidean spaces. General properties of the measure of total projections are derived by means of Palm distribution. Explicit formulas for variances of the projection measure are obtained for Poisson point processes of compact sets.

Intensity estimators of fibre (surface) processes are then studied by means of projection measures. Classification of direct and indirect probes is introduced. The indirect sampling design of vertical sections and projections is generalized and its statistical properties derived.     

Birth Weight And The Linear Statistical Model

Linear modals are used to disentangle the effects of several factors on the birth weight distribution of human infants. Parameters of interest include the overall mean and standard deviation, mean weights of infants of ‘low’ and ‘high’ birth weight; and proportions of ‘low weight’ infants. Conclusions vary strongly with the parameter concerned and in some instances are quite surprising.     

全球中小企业反规制进程及其因素分解

 20世纪70年代以后，一股世界性的“反规制”的潮流逐渐形成。“反规制”是指对过度规制的矫正，是为了更有效地发挥市场机制的作用而放松或改进政府对企业监管的行为。本文首先对目前全球中小企业的规制现状进行了统计分析；然后从对全球中小企业反规制进程及其国别差异问题进行了定量研究；最后建立面板数据计数模型，对影响全球中小企业反规制进程的诸因素及其影响力进行了系统的分解和测算。     

非经典计量经济建模方法论的特征分析与比较研究

 按照内容的沿革,计量经济模型分为经典计量经济模型和非经典计量经济模型。非经典计量经济建模方法论既是经典计量经济建模方法论的发展和延伸,又在建模理念、建模方法、模型应用等方面有着很大的不同。本文从数据类型、模型变量、建模对象、参数形式、建模思想等几个方面,对非经典计量经济建模方法论进行了系统的梳理、归纳和分析,重点比较了其与经典计量经济建模方法论的不同特征,对计量经济模型方法论发展演进的规律进行了初步的总结。     

财政政策DSGE模型中国化构建及其应用

事前模拟经济对财政政策变化的反应是检验政策效果的重要手段。本文通过国外经典模型中国化改进,并引入系统财政规则,构建财政政策DSGE模型。在有效税率估算校准与参数贝叶斯估计基础上,给出政策模拟检验应用示例。发现税率冲击效应模拟是税制改革实验的有效方法,资本税率可作为经济结构调整的政策工具,以及当前增加政府支出拉动增长作用微弱等结论。该研究也可为我国DSGE模型研究提供参考。     

The Design And Analysis of a Mixture Experiment on Glass Durability

This paper discusses the statistical design and analysis of a non–standard constrained mixture experiment on glass durability (the components sum to 1, and there are non–trivial lower or upper bounds on components or combinations of them). It notes some of the difficulties which arose during the study, and shows how the aims and methods of the experiment changed during its execution.     

A Review Of Some Robust Data Analysis And Multiple Outlier Detection Procedures

Some recent contributions to robust data analysis and multiple outlier detection are discussed. Two methods of analysis producing robust estimates and sets of weights which may be inspected for outliers are described and compared. Some examples of their application are given to support the recommendation that both ordinary least squares and a robust method of analysis should be part of routine data analysis.     

A Dynamic Discrimination Information Based On Cumulative Residual Entropy And Its Properties

In this article, we introduce a measure of discrepancy between two life-time distributions based on cumulative residual entropy. The dynamic form of this measure is considered and some of its properties are obtained. The relations between dynamic form and some well-known concepts in reliability such as mean residual life-time, hazard rate order, and new better (worse) than used are studied.     

协整理论和ECM模型在我国经济增长因素分析中的应用

文章运用协整理论,建立了排除伪回归的长期均衡方程以及ECM模型,对影响经济增长的资本因素、劳动因素、制度因素和产业结构因素进行分析,从定量角度探寻长期和短期影响我国经济增长的主要因素。     

Pseudo–Modelling of Outliers for Estimation of Regression And Time Series Models

This paper documents situations where the variance inflation model for outliers has undesirable properties. The model is commonly used to accommodate outliers in a Bayesian analysis of regression and time series models. The alternative approach provided here does not suffer from these undesirable properties but gives inferences similar to those of the variance inflation model when this is appropriate. It can be used with regression, time series, and regression with correlated errors in a unified way, and adheres to the scientific principle that inference should be based on the data after obvious outliers have been discarded. Only one parameter is required for outliers; it is interpretable as the a priori willingness to remove observations from the analysis.     

《统计通论》的版本、内容及影响

《统计通论》是20世纪上半叶在中日两国十分流行的社会统计学教材,截止1921年6月,其日文版在日本发行了42个版本,截止1931年5月为止,其中文版由商务印书馆共发行了10个版次。此书前身乃横山雅男的《统计学讲义》,也即1903年时中书局版《统计讲义录》（钮永建与林卓男译）的底本,1908年版孟森译《统计通论》的底本乃日文版《统计通论》的第4版（1904年）。该书包含社会统计学最基本内容,它不仅在日本普及了西方近代统计学理论和方法,而且在中国推动了传统统计思想方法向现代的转变,在晚清、民国时期的统计学教育中发挥了重要作用。     

Recurrence Relations And Identities For Moments Of Order Statistics,II; Specific Continuous Distributions

In an earlier paper, Malik et al. (1987) have reviewed several recurrence relations and identities available for the single and product moments of order statistics from an arbitrary continuous distribution. In this paper, we review several such relations and identities established for both single and product moments of order statistics from some specific continuous distributions. We also mention some important applications or. these results.     

中国财政收入与经济增长关系的实证分析

利用经济计量模型证实了分税制改革前后中国财政收入弹性有显著变化,详细计算了各分项财政收入对财政总收入增长的贡献率及其对财政总收入超GDP 增长的影响,在此基础上探讨和分析了过去一段时期,中国财政收入超GDP 增长的具体原因.     

Estimation Of A Survival Function With Doubly Censored Data And Dirichlet Process Prior Knowledge On The Observable Variable

This article presents a nonparametric Bayesian procedure for estimating a survival curve in a proportional hazard model when some of the data are censored on the left and some are censored on the right. The method works under the assumption that there is a Dirichlet process prior knowledge on the observable variable. Strong consistency of the estimator is proved and an example is given. To finish some simulation is presented to analyze the estimator.