A Comparison of the Runs Test for Volatility Forecastability and the LM Test for GARCH Using Aggregated Returns

Christoffersen and Diebold (2000) have introduced a runs test for forecastable volatility in aggregated returns. In this note, we compare the size and power of their runs test and the more conventional LM test for GARCH by Monte Carlo simulation. When the true daily process is GARCH, EGARCH, or stochastic volatility, the LM test has better power than the runs test for the moderate-horizon returns considered by Christoffersen and Diebold. For long-horizon returns, however, the tests have very similar power. We also consider a qualitative threshold GARCH model. For this process, we find that the runs test has greater power than the LM test. Theresults support the use of the runs test with aggregated returns.     

Correlation-Type Goodness of Fit Test for Extreme Value Distribution Based on Simultaneous Closeness

In reliability studies, one typically would assume a lifetime distribution for the units under study and then carry out the required analysis. One popular choice for the lifetime distribution is the family of two-parameter Weibull distributions (with scale and shape parameters) which, through a logarithmic transformation, can be transformed to the family of two-parameter extreme value distributions (with location and scale parameters). In carrying out a parametric analysis of this type, it is highly desirable to be able to test the validity of such a model assumption. A basic tool that is useful for this purpose is a quantile–quantile (QQ) plot, but in its use, the issue of the choice of plotting position arises. Here, by adopting the optimal plotting points based on Pitman closeness criterion proposed recently by Balakrishnan et al. (2010b Balakrishnan , N. , Davies , K. F. , Keating , J. P. , Mason , R. L. ( 2010b ). Computation of optimal plotting points based on Pitman Closeness with an application to goodness of fit for location-scale families. Submitted to Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.  [Google Scholar]), and referred to as simultaneous closeness probability (SCP) plotting points, we propose a correlation-type goodness of fit test for the extreme value distribution. We compute the SCP plotting points for various sample sizes and use them to determine the mean, standard deviation and critical values for the proposed correlation-type test statistic. Using these critical values, we carry out a power study, similar to the one carried out by Kinnison (1989 Kinnison , R. ( 1989 ). Correlation coefficient goodness of fit test for extreme value distribution . The American Statistician 43 : 98 – 100 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), through which we demonstrate that the use of SCP plotting points results in better power than with the use of mean ranks as plotting points and nearly the same power as with the use of median ranks. We then demonstrate the use of the SCP plotting points and the associated correlation-type test for Weibull analysis with an illustrative example. Finally, for the sake of comparison, we also adapt two statistics proposed by Gan and Koehler (1990 Gan , F. F. , Koehler , K. J. ( 1990 ). Goodness of fit based on P-P probability plots . Technometrics 32 : 289 – 303 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), in the context of probability–probability (PP) plots, based on SCP plotting points and compare their performance to those based on mean ranks. The empirical study also reveals that the tests from the QQ plot have better power than those from the PP plot.     

Adaptive Test for Periodicity in Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models

This article is devoted to the study of the periodicity testing problem in a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. The local asymptotic normality (LAN) property is shown via the adapted sufficient conditions due to Swensen (1985 Swensen , A. R. ( 1985 ). The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio for autoregressive time series with a regression trend . Journal of Multivariate Analysis 16 : 54 – 70 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Moreover, the LAN of the central sequence is established. First, we consider the case where the innovation density is specified and we obtain a parametric local asymptotic test. Second, we construct an adaptive test in the case where this density is unspecified but symmetric. The performances of these established tests are shown via simulation studies.     

A Bootstrap Stationarity Test for Predictive Regression Invalidity

In order for predictive regression tests to deliver asymptotically valid inference, account has to be taken of the degree of persistence of the predictors under test. There is also a maintained assumption that any predictability in the variable of interest is purely attributable to the predictors under test. Violation of this assumption by the omission of relevant persistent predictors renders the predictive regression invalid, and potentially also spurious, as both the finite sample and asymptotic size of the predictability tests can be significantly inflated. In response, we propose a predictive regression invalidity test based on a stationarity testing approach. To allow for an unknown degree of persistence in the putative predictors, and for heteroscedasticity in the data, we implement our proposed test using a fixed regressor wild bootstrap procedure. We demonstrate the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap test by proving that the limit distribution of the bootstrap statistic, conditional on the data, is the same as the limit null distribution of the statistic computed on the original data, conditional on the predictor. This corrects a long-standing error in the bootstrap literature whereby it is incorrectly argued that for strongly persistent regressors and test statistics akin to ours the validity of the fixed regressor bootstrap obtains through equivalence to an unconditional limit distribution. Our bootstrap results are therefore of interest in their own right and are likely to have applications beyond the present context. An illustration is given by reexamining the results relating to U.S. stock returns data in Campbell and Yogo (2006 Campbell, J. Y. and Yogo, M. (2006), “Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability,” Journal of Financial Economics, 81, 27–60.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Refined Inference on Long Memory in Realized Volatility

There is an emerging consensus in empirical finance that realized volatility series typically display long range dependence with a memory parameter (d) around 0.4 (Andersen et al., 2001 Andersen , T. G. , Bollerslev , T. , Diebold , F. X. , Labys , P. ( 2001 ). The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility . Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 ( 453 ): 42 – 55 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Martens et al., 2004 Martnes , M. , Van Dijk , D. , De Pooter , M. ( 2004 ). Modeling and forecasting S&P 500 volatility: Long memory, structural breaks and nonlinearity. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2004-067/4 . [Google Scholar]). The present article provides some illustrative analysis of how long memory may arise from the accumulative process underlying realized volatility. The article also uses results in Lieberman and Phillips (2004 Lieberman , O. , Phillips , P. C. B. ( 2004 ). Expansions for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the fractional difference parameter . Econometric Theory 20 ( 3 ): 464 – 484 . [Google Scholar], 2005 Lieberman , O. , Phillips , P. C. B. ( 2005 ). Expansions for approximate maximum likelihood estimators of the fractional difference parameter . The Econometrics Journal 8 : 367 – 379 . [Google Scholar]) to refine statistical inference about d by higher order theory. Standard asymptotic theory has an O(n ^?1/2) error rate for error rejection probabilities, and the theory used here refines the approximation to an error rate of o(n ^?1/2). The new formula is independent of unknown parameters, is simple to calculate and user-friendly. The method is applied to test whether the reported long memory parameter estimates of Andersen et al. (2001 Andersen , T. G. , Bollerslev , T. , Diebold , F. X. , Labys , P. ( 2001 ). The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility . Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 ( 453 ): 42 – 55 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Martens et al. (2004 Martnes , M. , Van Dijk , D. , De Pooter , M. ( 2004 ). Modeling and forecasting S&P 500 volatility: Long memory, structural breaks and nonlinearity. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2004-067/4 . [Google Scholar]) differ significantly from the lower boundary (d = 0.5) of nonstationary long memory, and generally confirms earlier findings.     

A Nonparametric Test for Deviation from Randomness with Applications to Stock Market Index Data

The proposed test detects deviations from randomness, without a priori distributional assumption, when observations are not independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), which is suitable for our motivating stock market index data. Departures from i.i.d. are tested by subdividing data into subintervals and then using a conditional probability measure within intervals as a binomial test. This nonparametric test is designed to detect deviations of neighboring observations from randomness when the dataset consists of time series observations. Simulation results and a comparison with Lo and MacKinlay's (1988 Lo, A. W. and MacKinlay, A. C. 1988. Stock market prices do not follow random walks: Evidence from a simple specification test. The Review of Financial Studies, 1: 41–66. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) variance ratio test showed that our proposed test is a competitive alternative.     

Test for periodicity in restrictive EXPAR models

Abstract

This article is devoted to study the problem of test of periodicity in the restricted exponential autoregressive (EXPAR) model. The local asymptotic normality property, of this model, is shown via the adapted sufficient conditions due to Swensen (1985 Swensen, A.R. (1985). The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio for autoregressive time series with a regression trend. J. Multivariate Anal. 16:54–70.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Using this result, in the case where the innovation density is specified, we obtain a parametric local asymptotic “most stringent” test.     

On the Preliminary Test Backfitting and Speckman Estimators in Partially Linear Models and Numerical Comparisons

Przystalski and Krajewski (2007 Przystalski , M. , Krajewski , P. ( 2007 ). Constrained estimators of treatment parameters in semiparametric models . Statist. Probab. Lett. 77 : 914 – 919 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed the restricted backfitting (RBCF) estimator and restricted Speckman (RSPC) estimator for the treatment effects in a partially linear model when some additional exact linear restrictions are assumed to hold. In this article, we introduce the preliminary test backfitting (PTBCF) estimator and preliminary test Speckman (PTSPC) estimator when the validity of the restrictions is suspected. Performances of the proposed estimators are examined with respect to the mean squared error (MSE) criterion. In addition, numerical behaviors of the proposed estimators are illustrated and compared via a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

A Note on the Poisson Likelihood Ratio Test Statistic for Kulldorff's Scan Methods

Methods based on scan statistics are widely used in health-related applications to detect clusters of disease. The most common methods are based on the Bernoulli and Poisson models. Kulldorff (1997 Kulldorff , M. ( 1997 ). A spatial scan statistic . Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 26 : 1481 – 1496 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) derived the likelihood ratio test statistic for his scan method for both of these models. His scan statistic is widely used with freely available software, SaTScan^? (see Kulldorff, 2005 Kulldorff , M. ( 2005 ). SaTScan: software for the spatial, temporal, and space-time scan statistics , version 5.1 [computer program]. Information Management Services 2005; Available: http://www.satscan.org/. Accessed July 2007 . [Google Scholar]). We provide an alternative derivation of the likelihood ratio test statistic in the Poisson case. Our derivation is simpler and more general in the sense that it applies when the incidences are not aggregated into subregional counts.     

Goodness-of-Fit Test and Parameter Estimation for a Proportional Odds Model of Random Censorship

Censored data arise naturally in a number of fields, particularly in problems of reliability and survival analysis. There are several types of censoring, in this article, we will confine ourselves to the right randomly censoring type. Recently, Ahmadi et al. (2010 Ahmadi , J. , Doostparast , M. , Parsian , A. ( 2010 ). Bayes estimation based on random censored data for some life time models under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions . Communcations in Statistics-Theory and Methods , 39 : 3058 – 3071 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) considered the problem of estimating unknown parameters in a general framework based on the right randomly censored data. They assumed that the survival function of the censoring time is free of the unknown parameter. This assumption is sometimes inappropriate. In such cases, a proportional odds (PO) model may be more appropriate (Lam and Leung, 2001 Lam , K. F. , Leung , T. L. ( 2001 ). Marginal likelihood estimation for proportional odds models with right censored data . Lifetime Data Analysis 7 : 39 – 54 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Under this model, in this article, point and interval estimations for the unknown parameters are obtained. Since it is important to check the adequacy of models upon which inferences are based (Lawless, 2003 Lawless , J. F. (2003). Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data. , 2nd ed. New York : John Wiley & Sons. [Google Scholar], p. 465), two new goodness-of-fit tests for PO model based on right randomly censored data are proposed. The proposed procedures are applied to two real data sets due to Smith (2002 Smith , P. J. ( 2002 ). Analysis of Failure and Survival Data . London : Chapman & Hall, CRC . [Google Scholar]). A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to carry out the behavior of the estimators obtained.     

General Saddlepoint Approximations: Application to the Anderson-Darling Test Statistic

We consider the relative merits of various saddlepoint approximations for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a statistic with a possibly non normal limit distribution. In addition to the usual Lugannani-Rice approximation, we also consider approximations based on higher-order expansions, including the case where the base distribution for the approximation is taken to be non normal. This extends earlier work by Wood et al. (1993 Wood , A. T. A. , Booth , J. G. , Butler , R. W. ( 1993 ). Saddlepoint approximations to the CDF of some statistics with nonnormal limit distributions . Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 : 680 – 686 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). These approximations are applied to the distribution of the Anderson-Darling test statistic. While these generalizations perform well in the middle of the distribution's support, a conventional normal-based Lugannani-Rice approximation (Giles, 2001 Giles , D. E. A. ( 2001 ). A Saddlepoint approximation to the distribution function of the Anderson-Darling test statistic . Communications in Statistics B 30 : 899 – 905 .[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) is superior for conventional critical regions.     

Bayesian Alternatives to the F Test for Two Population Variances

Bayesian alternatives to the classical F test comparing two population variances are explored. Shoemaker (2003 Shoemaker , L. H. ( 2003 ). Fixing the F test for equal variances . The Amer. Statistician 57 : 105 – 114 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) suggested two adjustments to the F test due to it being very sensitive to the normal assumption of the two populations. A simulation study is performed to compare the Bayesian alternatives to the F test and Shoemaker's adjusted F tests as well as to the Levene/Brown–Forsythe and the squared rank nonparametric tests. The Bayesian alternatives assume a normal parent distribution and non informative priors and the conjugate prior for the variances; in addition, an exponential power distribution is considered as the parent distribution with a non informative prior for the variances. The latter looks to be very promising provided that a suitable value of a parameter which measures the extent of non normality is chosen.     

Accelerated Life Test Data Analysis for Repairable Systems

In this article, the imperfect maintenance model and proportional intensity model are used to analyze failure data of repairable systems in accelerated life testing. In the design and development phase of products, we should collect and analyze failure data quickly with small proto-type products. Thus, we test the products under accelerated conditions and if the products fail, then we repair and use those continuously in the life testing. Acceleration and repair models are needed to analyze the failure data. An age reduction model (Brown et al.'s Brown et al. 1983 Brown , J. F. , Mahoney , J. F. , Sivazlian , B. D. ( 1983 ). Hysteresis repair in discounted replacement problems . IIE Trans. 15 : 156 – 165 . [CSA] [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], model) and relationship between scale parameter and stress level are assumed. The stress acts multiplicatively on the baseline cumulative intensity. The maximum likelihood method is used, the log-likelihood function is derived, and a maximizing procedure is proposed. In simulation studies, we investigate the accuracy and trends of the maximum likelihood estimator.     

Step-Up Procedure for Multiple Comparison with a Control for Multivariate Normal Means

In this study, we consider the multiple comparison with a control for multivariate normal means. Specifically, we construct a step-up procedure by referring to Dunnett and Tamhane (1992 Dunnett , C. W. , Tamhane , A. C. ( 1992 ). A step-up multiple test procedure . Journal of the American Statistical Association 87 : 162 – 170 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We derive recursive formulae for determining the critical values of the step-up procedure for a specified significance level. Then we formulate the power of the test. Finally, we compare the step-up procedure with the single-step procedure proposed by Nakamura and Imada (2005 Nakamura , T. , Imada , T. ( 2005 ). Multiple comparison procedure of Dunnett's type for multivariate normal means . Journal of the Japanese Society of Computational Statistics 18 : 21 – 32 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and the step-down procedure proposed by Imada and Douke (2007 Imada , T. , Douke , H. ( 2007 ). Step down procedure for comparing several treatments with a control based on multivariate normal response . Biometrical Journal 49 ( 1 ): 18 – 29 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in terms of numerical examples regarding the power of the test.     

A Nonparametric Test for the Ordered Alternative Based on Kendall's Correlation Coefficient

Several methods have been developed for testing the ordered alternative. These include the Jonckheere–Terpstra (JT) test (Jonckheere, 1954 Jonckheere , A. R. ( 1954 ). A distribution free k-sample test against ordered alternatives . Biometrika 41 : 133 – 145 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Terpstra, 1952 Terpstra , T. ( 1952 ). The asymptotic normality and consistency of Kendall's test against trend when ties are present in one ranking . Indigationes Mathematicae 14 : 327 – 333 . [Google Scholar]), a modified JT test (MJT) (Tryon and Hettmansperger, 1987 Tryon , V. P. , Hettmansperger , T. P. ( 1987 ). A class of nonparametric tests for homogeneity against ordered alternatives . Annals of Statistics 1 : 1061 – 1070 . [Google Scholar]), and a test proposed by Terpstra and Magel (TM) (Terpstra and Magel, 2003 Terpstra , J. T. , Magel , R. C. ( 2003 ). A new nonparametric test for the ordered alternative problem . Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 15 : 289 – 301 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), among others. This article proposes a new method for testing the ordered alternative. The proposed test is based on Kendall's tau statistic. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is given. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted comparing the estimated powers of the proposed test with existing tests under a variety of sample sizes and distributions.     

Note on posterior inference for the Bingham distribution

The properties of high-dimensional Bingham distributions have been studied by Kume and Walker (2014 Kume, A., and S. G. Walker. 2014. On the Bingham distribution with large dimension. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 124:345–52.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Fallaize and Kypraios (2016 Fallaize, C. J., and T. Kypraios. 2016. Exact Bayesian inference for the Bingham distribution. Statistics and Computing 26:349–60.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) propose the Bayesian inference for the Bingham distribution and they use developments in Bayesian computation for distributions with doubly intractable normalizing constants (Møller et al. 2006 Møller, J., A. N. Pettitt, R. Reeves, and K. K. Berthelsen. 2006. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method for distributions with intractable normalising constants. Biometrika 93 (2):451–458.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Murray, Ghahramani, and MacKay 2006 Murray, I., Z. Ghahramani, and D. J. C. MacKay. 2006. MCMC for doubly intractable distributions. In Proceedings of the 22nd annual conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence (UAI-06), 359–66. AUAI Press. [Google Scholar]). However, they rely heavily on two Metropolis updates that they need to tune. In this article, we propose instead a model selection with the marginal likelihood.     

Bootstrap test of hypothesis for the multi-state models in survival analysis

Abstract

In the present paper we develop bootstrap tests of hypothesis, based on simulation, for the transition probability matrix arising in the context of a multi-state model. The bootstrap test statistic is based on the paper of Tattar and Vaman (2008 Tattar, P. N., Vaman, H. J. (2008). Testing transition probability matrix of a multi-state model with censored data. Lifetime Data Anal. 14(2):216–230.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which develops a statistic for the testing problems concerning the transition probability matrix of the non homogeneous Markov process.     

A variance shift model for detection of outliers in the linear mixed measurement error models

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we extend a variance shift model, previously considered in the linear mixed models, to the linear mixed measurement error models using the corrected likelihood of Nakamura (1990 Nakamura, T. (1990). Corrected score function for errors in variables models: methodology and application to generalized linear models. Biometrika 77:127–137.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This model assumes that a single outlier arises from an observation with inflated variance. We derive the score test and the analogue of the likelihood ratio test, to assess whether the ith observation has inflated variance. A parametric bootstrap procedure is implemented to obtain empirical distributions of the test statistics. Finally, results of a simulation study and an example of real data are presented to illustrate the performance of proposed tests.     

Robustness of the EWMA control chart for individual observations

The traditional exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is one of the most popular control charts used in practice today. The in-control robustness is the key to the proper design and implementation of any control chart, lack of which can render its out-of-control shift detection capability almost meaningless. To this end, Borror et al. [5 Borror, C. M., Montgomery, D. C. and Runger, G. C. 1999. Robustness of the EWMA control chart to non-normality. J. Qual. Technol., 31(3): 309–316. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]] studied the performance of the traditional EWMA chart for the mean for i.i.d. data. We use a more extensive simulation study to further investigate the in-control robustness (to non-normality) of the three different EWMA designs studied by Borror et al. [5 Borror, C. M., Montgomery, D. C. and Runger, G. C. 1999. Robustness of the EWMA control chart to non-normality. J. Qual. Technol., 31(3): 309–316. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]]. Our study includes a much wider collection of non-normal distributions including light- and heavy-tailed and symmetric and asymmetric bi-modal as well as the contaminated normal, which is particularly useful to study the effects of outliers. Also, we consider two separate cases: (i) when the process mean and standard deviation are both known and (ii) when they are both unknown and estimated from an in-control Phase I sample. In addition, unlike in the study done by Borror et al. [5 Borror, C. M., Montgomery, D. C. and Runger, G. C. 1999. Robustness of the EWMA control chart to non-normality. J. Qual. Technol., 31(3): 309–316. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]], the average run-length (ARL) is not used as the sole performance measure in our study, we consider the standard deviation of the run-length (SDRL), the median run-length (MDRL), and the first and the third quartiles as well as the first and the 99th percentiles of the in-control run-length distribution for a better overall assessment of the traditional EWMA chart's in-control performance. Our findings sound a cautionary note to the (over) use of the EWMA chart in practice, at least with some types of non-normal data. A summary and recommendations are provided.     

Asymptotic normality of the local linear estimation of the conditional density for functional time-series data

This article focuses on the conditional density of a scalar response variable given a random variable taking values in a semimetric space. The local linear estimators of the conditional density and its derivative are considered. It is assumed that the observations form a stationary α-mixing sequence. Under some regularity conditions, the joint asymptotic normality of the estimators of the conditional density and its derivative is established. The result confirms the prospect in Rachdi et al. (2014 Rachdi, M., A. Laksaci, J. Demongeot, A. Abdali, and F. Madani. 2014. Theoretical and practical aspects of the quadratic error in the local linear estimation of the conditional density for functional data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 73 :53–68.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and can be applied in time-series analysis to make predictions and build confidence intervals. The finite-sample behavior of the estimator is investigated by simulations as well.