Norovirus Dose–Response: Are Currently Available Data Informative Enough to Determine How Susceptible Humans Are to Infection from a Single Virus?

Two forms of single‐hit infection dose‐response models have previously been developed to assess available data from human feeding trials and estimate the norovirus dose‐response relationship. The mechanistic interpretations of these models include strong assumptions that warrant reconsideration: the first study includes an implicit assumption that there is no immunity to Norwalk virus among the specific study population, while the recent second study includes assumptions that such immunity could exist and that the nonimmune have no defensive barriers to prevent infection from exposure to just one virus. Both models addressed unmeasured virus aggregation in administered doses. In this work, the available data are reanalyzed using a generalization of the first model to explore these previous assumptions. It was hypothesized that concurrent estimation of an unmeasured degree of virus aggregation and important dose‐response parameters could lead to structural nonidentifiability of the model (i.e., that a diverse range of alternative mechanistic interpretations yield the same optimal fit), and this is demonstrated using the profile likelihood approach and by algebraic proof. It is also demonstrated that omission of an immunity parameter can artificially inflate the estimated degree of aggregation and falsely suggest high susceptibility among the nonimmune. The currently available data support the assumption of immunity within the specific study population, but provide only weak information about the degree of aggregation and susceptibility among the nonimmune. The probability of infection at low and moderate doses may be much lower than previously asserted, but more data from strategically designed dose‐response experiments are needed to provide adequate information.     

Level‐k Auctions: Can a Nonequilibrium Model of Strategic Thinking Explain the Winner's Curse and Overbidding in Private‐Value Auctions?

This paper proposes a structural nonequilibrium model of initial responses to incomplete‐information games based on “level‐k” thinking, which describes behavior in many experiments with complete‐information games. We derive the model's implications in first‐ and second‐price auctions with general information structures, compare them to equilibrium and Eyster and Rabin's (2005) “cursed equilibrium,” and evaluate the model's potential to explain nonequilibrium bidding in auction experiments. The level‐k model generalizes many insights from equilibrium auction theory. It allows a unified explanation of the winner's curse in common‐value auctions and overbidding in those independent‐private‐value auctions without the uniform value distributions used in most experiments.     

To What Extent Are Labor‐Saving Technologies Improving Efficiency in the Use of Human Resources? Evidence from the Banking Industry

With special reference to the banking industry, the objective of this study is to address managerial concerns over the impact of labor‐saving technologies on efficiency in the use of human resources. A bank is viewed as a collection of human, technology, and capital resources. Labor‐saving technologies are represented by two categories of technology resources—information technologies and patented in‐house process innovations. The estimation of a stochastic frontier manpower‐requirement function shows that, whereas information technology resources have a direct impact on efficiency in the use of human resources, in‐house process innovations have an indirect impact through spillovers. The reduction in labor costs resulting from a more efficient use of human resources is more than enough to cover the required increase in information technology expenditures. This cost‐reducing impact is stronger for firms currently employing a lower level of information technologies. The empirical findings also suggest a complementary relationship between information technologies and spillovers of in‐house process innovations. The empirical framework proposed in this study can help decision makers determine the optimal input mix of technology and human resources.     

Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?

We identify the effects of monetary policy on credit risk‐taking with an exhaustive credit register of loan applications and contracts. We separate the changes in the composition of the supply of credit from the concurrent changes in the volume of supply and quality, and the volume of demand. We employ a two‐stage model that analyzes the granting of loan applications in the first stage and loan outcomes for the applications granted in the second stage, and that controls for both observed and unobserved, time‐varying, firm and bank heterogeneity through time*firm and time*bank fixed effects. We find that a lower overnight interest rate induces lowly capitalized banks to grant more loan applications to ex ante risky firms and to commit larger loan volumes with fewer collateral requirements to these firms, yet with a higher ex post likelihood of default. A lower long‐term interest rate and other relevant macroeconomic variables have no such effects.     

Are Networks Flat or Vertical?: Developing a Multi-Level Multi-Dimension Network Model

Extant public administration network literature tend to conceptualize and measure relationships in networks based on the premise that the nodes and ties in networks lie on a single-level horizontal structure. The purpose of the current study is to suggest that networks are inevitably multi-level and multi-dimension structures and propose a multi-level multi-dimension network model (MLMD). More specifically, network relationships such as within-level, inter-level, and inter-sector are offered to depict the multi-layered and multi-sectoral nature of the network relationships among the government and non-government actors. For empirical analysis, the current study constructs a hypothetical network to describe MLMD.     

Does Security Impact E‐procurement Performance? Testing a Model of Direct and Moderated Effects

Despite the widespread adoption of e‐procurement and the critical role of information security in these situations, academic research examining the relationship between information security and e‐procurement performance has been surprisingly minimal. This study represents an interdisciplinary approach to present and test a theoretical model that links security in e‐procurement processes to e‐procurement performance. E‐procurement performance is measured as a combination of cost savings, order quality, and satisfaction of fulfillment as perceived by buyers. The model also posits that two aspects of the procurement process will enhance the value of security in e‐procurement, namely, process complexity and process interdependence. We empirically examine these relationships using data collected from procurement managers. Our results have important implications for managing the e‐procurement process.     

What is the impact of sustainable development on the re-localisation of manufacturing enterprises?

Rendering the supply chain more eco-friendly is an innovative idea progressively adopted by industry. Our research focuses on the CO₂ equivalent emissions along the supply chain due to freight energy use and storage. A supply chain model based on discrete event simulation was developed. The model uses reorder point production management policy (ROP) within a make to stock (MTS) demand response strategy. Manufacturing capability is also taken into account using an overall equipment effectiveness indicator (OEE). In addition, the location of the firms and their types of products are modelled. The purpose is to compare supply chain CO₂ equivalent emissions of different configurations. This method is applied to two industrial cases: Carrier (UTC group), a large cooler manufacturer and Zannier group, a textile industry. The principle objective of the study is to conduct pertinent experiments to give green guidelines to Carrier and Zannier group.     

Are crowds on the internet wiser than experts? The case of a stock prediction community

According to the “Wisdom of Crowds” phenomenon, a large crowd can perform better than smaller groups or few individuals. This article investigates the performance of share recommendations, which have been published by members of a stock prediction community on the Internet. Participants of these online communities publish buy and sell recommendations for shares and try to predict the stock market development. We collected unique field data on 10,146 recommendations that were made between May 2007 and August 2011 on one of the largest European stock prediction communities. Our results reveal that on an annual basis investments based on the recommendations of Internet, users achieve a return that is on average 0.59 % points higher than investments of professional analysts from banks, brokers and research companies. This means, that on average, investors are better off by trusting the crowd rather than analysts. We furthermore investigate how the postulated theoretical conditions of diversity and independence influence the performance of a large crowd on the Internet. While independent decisions can substantially improve the performance of the crowd, there is no evidence for the power of diversity in our data.     

Encounter Satisfaction in E‐tailing: Are the Relationships of Order Fulfillment Service Quality with its Antecedents and Consequences Moderated by Historical Satisfaction?

This study focuses on whether historical satisfaction with an e‐tailer (HSat) moderates baseline relationships in order fulfillment service quality models. HSat is defined as satisfaction with the e‐tailer spanning all transactions except the current encounter. Encounter satisfaction (ESat) is defined as the consumer's satisfaction with the current transaction. In the baseline model, four order fulfillment service quality (OFSQ) dimensions managerially relevant to consumer e‐tailing are examined: timeliness, availability, condition, and billing accuracy. The baseline structural model results support that OFSQ dimensions impact ESat, which in turn predicts two key consequences—repurchase intention and word‐of‐mouth. Adaptation theory is used to model the role of HSat, while controlling for transaction recency, vendor familiarity, and competitive pricing. HSat is shown to have pervasive main and interaction effects upon all baseline model relationships. These moderation effects have great managerial relevance. For example, the results illustrate a phenomenon similar to the service recovery paradox, wherein when a negative service encounter is followed by a highly positive service recovery event, previously dissatisfied consumers, as compared to previously satisfied consumers, respond with higher levels of current satisfaction. For managers, this finding is encouraging because policies that create highly positive events for consumers can thus supersede past negative experiences. Our results show however that HSat cannot be completely superseded by current OFSQ or current ESat.     

Tax and Education Policy in a Heterogeneous‐Agent Economy: What Levels of Redistribution Maximize Growth and Efficiency?

This paper studies the effects of progressive income taxes and education finance in a dynamic heterogeneous‐agent economy. Such redistributive policies entail distortions to labor supply and savings, but also serve as partial substitutes for missing credit and insurance markets. The resulting tradeoffs for growth and efficiency are explored, both theoretically and quantitatively, in a model that yields complete analytical solutions. Progressive education finance always leads to higher income growth than taxes and transfers, but at the cost of lower insurance. Overall efficiency is assessed using a new measure that properly reflects aggregate resources and idiosyncratic risks but, unlike a standard social welfare function, does not reward equality per se. Simulations using empirical parameter estimates show that the efficiency costs and benefits of redistribution are generally of the same order of magnitude, resulting in plausible values for the optimal rates. Aggregate income and aggregate welfare provide only crude lower and upper bounds around the true efficiency tradeoff.     

A Multi‐theory Perspective of Board Leadership Structure: What Does the Egyptian Corporate Governance Context Tell Us?

Much of the existing research in corporate governance has been directed at examining the consequences of board leadership structure on various organizational issues, with little to say about the determinants of this structure. By exploring either agency theory or stewardship theory, researchers provide contested conclusions regarding board leadership structure. The underlying premise of both theories is that ‘one universal structure fits all’. However, the main argument of this paper is that the appropriate board leadership structure varies with some contextual variables and certain actors in a given environment. Econometric analysis demonstrates that board leadership structure varies with firm size, age and ownership structure. The implication of this result is that the assertion of both agency theory (CEO non‐duality structure) and stewardship theory (CEO duality structure) may be valid under certain conditions. Thus, existing theories might need to be treated as complementary viewpoints, each of which draws upon a part of the whole picture, because depending on just one single perspective is more likely to result in misleading conclusions about the structure as a whole.     

Demographic Influences on the OECD Labour Market: Is there a problem? Are there solutions?*

Abstract. This paper is concerned with the possible economic effects of the demographic movements expected to emerge in the OECD area over the next 30 years. It is argued that the labour and product market implications of the changing population size and ageing are not as worrying as conventional wisdom believes, especially if counterbalancing economic policies are implemented. The most negative effect will probably concern a potential productivity slowdown, but ageing might also have some positive side-effects; implying, for example, declining youth unemployment.     

Design of the Reverse Channel for Remanufacturing: Must Profit‐Maximization Harm the Environment?

A key attribute of a remanufacturing strategy is the division of labor in the reverse channel, especially whether remanufacturing is performed in‐house or outsourced. We investigate this decision for a retailer who accepts returns of a remanufacturable product. Our formulation considers the cost structures of the two strategies, uncertainty in the input quality of the collected/returned used products, consumer willingness‐to‐pay for remanufactured product, the extent to which the remanufactured product cannibalizes demand for a new product, and the power structure in the channel. For the profit‐maximizing retailer, the differentials in variable remanufacturing costs drive strategy choice, and higher fixed costs of in‐house remanufacturing favors outsourcing. The variable remanufacturing costs and the balance of power in the prospective outsourced reverse channel are the key drivers of environmental impact, as measured by the retailer's propensity to remanufacture. While profitability and environmental goals often conflict, they align under certain conditions. These include (a) the third party has less bargaining power; or (b) the fixed cost for in‐house remanufacturing is relatively high. All else equal, when remanufacturing is outsourced, the environment fares better if the third party has leadership power. We generalize to the cases when remanufacturing achieves a quality level less than “good‐as‐new" and when used items have non‐zero salvage value. Analysis of these extensions illuminates how relative power in the reverse channel drives the firms’ preferences, as well as the end customers’ consumption experience.     

The Effect of Mergers and Acquisitions on Employees: Wealth Transfer,Gain‐Sharing or Pain‐Sharing?

This paper considers whether gains made by shareholders from corporate takeovers are achieved at the expense of employees, as proposed by the ‘wealth transfer’ perspective. It analyses the contribution of employee lay‐offs, along with employment and wage changes, to the takeover premium and abnormal share price movements. The analysis draws on a unique dataset of British takeovers, combining documentary, share price and accounting data. The results show that lay‐offs planned at the takeover have either no effect or adverse effects on shareholder returns. Wages growth is positively, not inversely, related to shareholder returns from the second year after the takeover, whilst positive employment changes have a similar effect in the following year. Closer scrutiny indicates that labour and shareholders share gains when the firm does well, but share pain when it does not. There is evidence, therefore, that labour and shareholder interests can be complementary, rather than antagonistic, after takeovers.     

Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing‐Power‐Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean‐Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price

The PPP puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods (LOOP) or baskets of goods (PPP) appear highly persistent or even nonstationary. The present consensus is these price differences have a half‐life that is of the order of five years at best, and infinity at worst. This seems unreasonable in a world where transportation and transaction costs appear so low as to encourage arbitrage and the convergence of price gaps over much shorter horizons, typically days or weeks. However, current empirics rely on a particular choice of methodology, involving (i) relatively low‐frequency monthly, quarterly, or annual data, and (ii) a linear model specification. In fact, these methodological choices are not innocent, and they can be shown to bias analysis towards findings of slow convergence and a random walk. Intuitively, if we suspect that the actual adjustment horizon is of the order of days, then monthly and annual data cannot be expected to reveal it. If we suspect arbitrage costs are high enough to produce a substantial “band of inaction,” then a linear model will fail to support convergence if the process spends considerable time random‐walking in that band. Thus, when testing for PPP or LOOP, model specification and data sampling should not proceed without consideration of the actual institutional context and logistical framework of markets.     

Metaphors and Theory Building in Organization Theory: What Determines the Impact of a Metaphor on Theory?*

A long‐standing stream of organizational research suggests that our ability to theorize and reason about organizations is significantly influenced by metaphorical representations of organizations. This study contributes to this research stream by examining how different metaphors influence theory development and academic thinking about organizations. We asked scholars from UK business schools to rate different metaphors in terms of their impact on theory building. We then examined whether, and to what extent, these metaphors (after they had been selected) had helped in clarifying and advancing their understanding of organizations. The results indicate that the ability of a metaphor to advance and clarify theoretical understandings of organizations is based upon (1) the degree to which that metaphor is seen to capture multiple salient features of organizations and (2) the ease with which the metaphor is understood. We discuss the implications of these results for theorizing and research on organizations.     

Where To Go From Here? Thoughts on Future Directions for Research on Individual‐Level Technology Adoption with a Focus on Decision Making*

This article recognizes the maturity of individual‐level technology‐adoption research and suggests three broad future research directions. They are: (i) business process change and process standards, (ii) supply‐chain technologies, and (iii) services. Each of these areas is identified based on the topics likely of interest to the readers of the Decision Sciences by closely examining Decision Sciences' editorial mission and the recent research published in it. Within each of these three different broad topic areas, a few different specific directions are identified. The directions outlined here are not meant to be exhaustive but rather potential directions that can result in a theoretical contribution to individual‐level technology‐adoption research and the specific topic area.