A CLOSER LOOK AT LONG‐RUN U.S. MONEY DEMAND: LINEAR OR NONLINEAR ERROR‐CORRECTION WITH M0, M1, OR M2?

We study annual U.S. data from 1869 or 1900 to 1999. We find evidence for a well-specified and stable model of money demand with data from 1946 to 1999. We carry out diagnostic and stability tests, including linearity tests. A linear error-correction model with the monetary base performs better than a model with M1. A specification with M2 is not supported. We use real gross national product as the scale variable and a short-term interest rate as the opportunity cost measure. We estimate an income elasticity of 0.86 and an interest rate elasticity of −0.44 for the monetary base . ( JEL E41)     

Cointegration and Structural Change: An Application to the U.S. Demand for Money

I perform the cointegration tests for the trivariate model of real monetary aggregates, real personal income, and short‐term interest rate. I find the existence of a long‐run relationship among these three variables. To check the stability of a long‐run money demand relationship, I implement a rank constancy test and CUSUM test. The test results show that real M1 is relatively more stable than other aggregates, but structural change occurred during the 1970s and early 1980s. This is consistent with prior research on money demand.     

THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND REAL INTEREST DIFFERENTIALS: THE ROLE OF THE TREND‐CYCLE DECOMPOSITION

We propose an alternative model and method to reconcile the puzzling feature in the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials. Our simple two‐country model with preset prices, along with firms' misperception about the future exchange rate, implies that the real exchange rate follows an ARIMA(0,1,p) process. This allows us to compute the exact Beveridge‐Nelson decomposition, which is a model‐consistent decomposition. In accordance with our model, unit roots in the real exchange rates are found; and statistical inference is partially found to be affirmative regarding the link between the real exchange rate detrended by the Beveridge‐Nelson decomposition and corresponding real interest differentials. (JEL F31, F41)     

IDENTIFYING THE ROLE OF RISK SHOCKS IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE USING STOCK PRICE DATA

I analyze the sources of U.S. business cycle fluctuations in an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with a rich set of nominal and real rigidities and various exogenous disturbances. The model includes a shock to the expected risk‐premium, which introduces a time‐varying wedge between the policy rate set by the central bank and the cost‐of‐capital of firms. In the aggregate data, most U.S. corporations finance their investment using internal funds, and stock prices reveal the opportunity cost of this type of financing. I therefore use corporate market value and dividend data in the Bayesian estimation of the model to identify risk shocks. Variance decomposition exercises show that these shocks account for a substantial part of the variation in the stock market, as well as the variation in output and investment, especially at short forecast horizons. The variation of these variables at longer forecast horizons are mainly captured by shocks to investment‐specific technological change. Historical decomposition points to the important role played by risk shocks in the run up of stock prices and output in the late 90s, and in the reversal of these variables in the early 2000s and during the recent recession. (JEL E32, E44)     

Intergenerational equity and an explicit construction of welfare criteria

Ranking infinite utility streams includes many impossibility results, most involving certain Pareto, anonymity, or continuity requirements. We introduce the concept of the future agreement extension, a method that explicitly extends orderings on finite time horizons to an infinite time horizon. The future agreement extension of the given orderings is quasi-transitive, complete, and pairwisely continuous. Furthermore, its asymmetric part is larger than that of any other pairwisely continuous extension of the orderings. In case of anonymous and strongly Paretian orderings, their future agreement extension is variable step anonymous and strongly Paretian. Characterizations of the future agreement extensions of the utilitarian and leximin orderings are obtained as applications.     

The linear imagination,stalled: changing temporal horizons in migrant journeys

In this article, I engage with a growing interest in questions of time in the study of migration to consider how changing temporal horizons in migrant journeys play an important role in shaping multilocal migration imaginaries. I draw on two ethnographic cases with migrant care workers from the Philippines, of different generations and at different points of their migration journeys, to examine how initially held linear imaginaries of migration become confounded and stuck over time. Snapshots of migrant lives at these different points of the journey – ‘(pre)‐departures’, ‘stepping stones’, ‘settling’ – reveal how migrants’ temporal horizons shift as a consequence of changing state and political‐economic conditions, as well as migrants’ own dynamic subjective and affective engagements. New uncertainties, possibilities and dilemmas unfold and initial linear imaginaries give way instead to those that are open‐ended and asynchronous. A temporal perspective reveals that mobilities are not marked by a beginning and an end but rather involve ongoing, multiple and provisional journeys across locales and over time and the life course.     

Roles of Stock Price and Exchange Rate in Slovakia's Money Demand Function and Policy Implications

The demand for real M1 in Slovakia is positively influenced by real output and the stock price and negatively associated with the deposit rate, depreciation of the koruna, the euro interest rate, and the expected inflation rate. Considering the goods and the money market simultaneously, these results suggest that a higher stock price may or may not cause real output to rise and that a depreciation of the koruna or a higher euro interest rate would help raise Slovakia's real output. The coefficients of the deposit rate and the stock price in real M2 demand are insignificant at the 10% level. The likelihood ratio test in the extended Box–Cox model shows that the double-log form cannot be rejected at the 5% level while the linear form can be rejected at the 5% level. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests show that the money demand function was relatively stable.      

Consumer Behavior in the United States: Implications for Social Security Reform

This article shows theoretically and empirically that an aggregate Euler equation relates the growth rate of per capita consumption to the real interest rate, the ratio of private wealth plus asset income to consumption, and the ratio of social security wealth to consumption. Using the estimated Euler equation, the paper then calculates the steady-state effects of social security reform. Reforms that reduce the ratio of social security wealth to consumption are found to shift the balanced growth paths for the capital stock, output, and consumption upward appreciably.     

Real Balance Effects and Monetary Policy

This article presents a dynamic stochastic new Keynesian model with real balance effects. I find a number of results that would not appear in the traditional framework. It is shown that the real balance effect makes the so-called Taylor principle not necessary for determinacy of rational expectations equilibrium and that "passive" monetary rules may be feasible. In addition, within a class of policy rules constrained to be a linear function of state variables, "active" interest rate rules are more likely to be optimal under commitment rather than under discretion. (JEL E52 , E58 )     

Models of Man in the Design of Housing for the Elderly

Several publications have appeared recently on the subject of models of man. While this phenomenon indicates the rising interest in models of man, to this date the work relating this subject to architectural or civic design has been at best minimal. What work that has been done reflects models defined in strictly psychological terms. This inquiry identifies those models best described as humanistic. Four humanistic models of man are identified, defined, and demonstrated as major determinants of architectural form, particularly housing for the elderly. These four are identified as (1) finite, (2) radical, (3) infinite, and (4) post-historic. While these models of man are timeless in the abstract sense and can be seen at work at any time, simutlaneously, or in combinations of one or another, they most clearly are visible as forces at work in history. The finite model of man gives rise to the Asklepieion, an ancient Greek sanitoria or health resort for the aged; the radical, the monastery or monastic home; the infinite, the grandiose or palatial Renaissance institution; and the post-historic, the medically modeled convalescent care home. This paper further illustrates the idea that models of man are a major determinant of form.     

IS RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE A GOOD APPROXIMATION?

Ricardian equivalence may be a good approximation even if all households have finite horizons, many households have short horizons, and an appreciable fraction of wage income is received by liquidity-constrained households. The approximation is likely to be better, the more imperfect annuity markets are.     

The Russian Economy and the Oil Price: A Co-integrated VAR Approach

Using a co-integrated VAR model, this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of oil price and interest rate shocks on the Russian economy for the period 1995:Q1-2008:Q2. The co-integration analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.8%, suggesting an increase four times that reported by Rautava (2002), in the long run. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis suggests that the impacts of the shock on inflation and real GDP are positive over the next eight quarters (short run), whereas the tightening of monetary policy through interest rate channel is immediately associated with a decline in inflation as predicted by theory, but with an increase in real GDP over the preceding quarters.      

PRICE LEVEL UNCERTAINTY, SAVING, AND LABOR SUPPLY

This paper derives the implications, for individual saving and labor supply, of increased uncertainty about the future price level. The framework for the analysis is a two-period model in which saving and labor supply are alternative sources of both present disutility and future income. The individual is assumed to make simultaneously his saving and labor supply decisions prior to the resolution of the uncertainty about the future price level. We find that, under theoretically plausible and empirically relevant assumptions about attitudes toward risk, an increase in future price level uncertainty increases individual saving and labor supply. These results imply that, for the economy as a whole, increased uncertainty about the future price level increases output and employment, while decreasing the real rate of interest, the present price level, and economic welfare.     

FEDERAL DEFICITS, MACRO-STABILIZATION GOALS, AND FEDERAL RESERVE BEHAVIOR

The effects of federal deficits on Federal Reserve behavior as proxied by changes in the growth rate of the monetary base are analyzed in this study. Multivariate Granger-causality tests are employed in the analysis. The deficit measure that is the focus of the analysis is the change in the real market value of privately held federal debt. The tests indicate that the deficit Granger-causes the monetary base. Additionally, concerns for financial market stability, real output, and exchange rate movements in the period of floating rates also affect Federal Reserve behavior.     

THE LONG RUN BEHAVIOR OF THE INCOME VELOCITY OF MONEY IN FIVE ADVANCED COUNTRIES, 1870–1975: AN INSTITUTIONAL APPROACH

The income velocity of money in Canada, the United States, Great Britain, Norway and Sweden displays a U-shaped pattern over the last one hundred years. This paper presents and tests empirically an explanation for this secular pattern emphasizing the influence on velocity of institutional changes. The inclusion into a simple velocity function of institutional developments such as the process of monetization, the spread of commercial banking, financial development and the growth of economic stability improves the explanation of long-run movements in velocity provided by a regression of velocity on real permanent income per head and the interest rate.     

The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna

The behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model of the Czech koruna is derived in this paper and estimated by three methods suitable for nonstationary time series. The considered potential determinants of the real equilibrium exchange rate are the productivity differential, the interest rate differential, the terms of trade, net foreign direct investment, net foreign assets, government consumption, and the degree of openness. We find that the Czech koruna was on average undervalued over the period from 1994 to 2004 by about 7 percent with respect to the estimated BEER. The significant determinants of the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna appear to be the productivity differential, the real interest rate differential, the terms of trade, and the net foreign direct investment.     

Expanding Statistical Frontiers in Sexual Science: Taxometric,Invariance, and Equivalence Testing

Sexual scientists must choose from among myriad methodological and analytical approaches when investigating their research questions. How can scholars learn whether sexualities are discrete or continuous? How is sexuality constructed? And to what extent are sexuality-related groups similar to or different from one another? Though commonplace, quantitative attempts at addressing these research questions require users to possess an increasingly deep repertoire of statistical knowledge and programming skills. Recently developed open-source software offers powerful yet accessible capacity to researchers wishing to perform strong quantitative tests. Taking advantage of these new statistical opportunities will require sexual scientists to become familiar with new analyses, including taxometric analysis, tests of measurement variability and differential item functioning, and equivalence testing. In the current article, I discuss each of these analyses, providing conceptual and historical overviews. I also address common misunderstandings for each analysis that may discourage researchers from implementing them. Finally, I describe current best practices when using each analysis, providing reproducible coding examples and interpretations along the way, in an attempt to reduce barriers to the uptake of these analyses. By aspiring to explore these new statistical frontiers in sexual science, sexuality researchers will be better positioned to test their substantive theories of interest.     

Finite decentralization in a Tiebout economy with crowding types

We study a model with local public goods in which agents' crowding effects are formally distinguished from their taste types. It has been shown that the core of such an economy can be decentralized with anonymous admission prices (which are closely related to cost share prices). Unfortunately, such a price system allows for an arbitrary relationship between the public goods level in a given jurisdiction and the cost to an agent for joining. Formally, this means that admission prices are infinite dimensional. Attempts to decentralize the core with finite price systems such as Lindahl prices suggest that this is possible only under fairly restrictive conditions. In this paper, we introduce a new type of price system called finite cost shares. This system has strictly larger dimension than Lindahl prices but, in contrast to general cost share prices, is finite. We show that this allows for decentralization of the core under more general conditions than are possible with Lindahl prices. Received: 18 January 2000/Accepted: 21 January 2002 The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

ARE GOVERNMENT BONDS NET WEALTH? EVIDENCE FOR THE UNITED STATES

This paper investigates whether government bonds are viewed as net wealth. If they are, the nominal interest rate in steady-state equilibrium should be an increasing function of the government debt and of government spending. Using forward interest rates realized during World War II, this paper finds no evidence of such a relationship. These data afford an especially powerful test because the federal debt rose from 29 to 106 percent of trend output during the war. This enormous increase in government debt actually appears to have reduced forward interest rates by a statistically significant, but small, amount.     

Teaching,as Learning,in Practice

In this article, I investigate an alternative place for the computer with respect to human cognition. Instead of the computer as a model of the human being, I explore the computer in its role as mediator of human activity based on activity theory. In particular, I discuss various metaphors for this role, including that of a tool, and I look at possible roles for the computer in development of human work activity. I emphasize further the importance of the design of this alternative place. I use an example from a computer application in use in a real work setting to illustrate my points.