外汇储备与经济增长的Granger因果关系检验——基于1978-2008年数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,外汇储备呈大幅增长的态势,由于外汇储备的增长会对我国的整体的宏观经济运行有诸多的影响,因此探讨外汇储备增长与经济增长之间的关系,对国内经济的快速稳定的运行有重要意义。文章在吸收内生增长模型和新古典增长模型基本理论的基础上,另外在借鉴对外汇储备研究的相关研究成果基础上,采用了定性分析和定量分析相结合,并采用了能体现时间序列数据特性的相关性检验,单位根检验、格朗杰因果检验等计量研究方法,对外汇储备和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。     

从供应链角度分析煤炭行业流通体制改革——以山西煤炭行业为例

我国是一个能源生产和消耗大国,经济的快速发展拉动了能源需求的迅猛增长。在我国能源结构中,煤炭生产和消耗比例都是最大的。煤炭行业在流通体制改革中起步虽早,过程却很漫长。这成为我国目前能源供不应求的局面的重要因素之一。本文从供应链角度来分析煤炭行业流通体制改革,从而寻求一些新的突破。     

我国煤碳消费与经济增长关系的计量分析

该文主要对煤碳消费与国家经济增长的关系进行分析。其中主要运用时间序列中协整回归分析和因果关系检验等分析方法来研究煤碳消费与经济增长之间的相关性和因果关系。     

进口贸易对中国经济增长的影响研究

关于进口对国民经济增长的作用,一直以来都存在着一些怀疑和争论。实际上,进口问题之所以更为复杂,是因为在自由贸易与贸易保护之争的背后,隐含着消费者与生产者、局部利益与全民福利之间的矛盾。对我国1978~2007年的进口贸易与国内生产总值两个时间序列进行协整分析表明,二者之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系。因此,我国应尽快调整外贸发展战略,积极扩大进口规模,优化进口结构,促进国民经济更快、更好地发展。     

高技术产业与经济增长的互动关系研究——以四川省为例

本文基于一些相对成熟的研究方法,选取了四川省2003~2012年的时间序列数据,利用计量经济学以及产业经济学中的协整检验、相关性检验以及格兰杰因果检验等方法,对四川省的高技术产业与经济增长之间的关系进行动态检验。     

我国贸易回滞的实证分析

首先阐述了贸易回滞产生的根源在于贸易市场结构的变化,然后对 1981年～2001 年我国净出口和汇率的时间序列数据分别进行增广迪基-富勒检验,检验结果表明两者都有单位根,即均为随机游走序列,这样净出口就可能存在回滞.再对净出口和汇率进行协整检验,检验结果表明这两个变量之间不存在协整,这进一步证实了两者之间确实不存在函数关系,由此得出我国存在贸易回滞的结论并据此提出人民币不应贬值等几项政策建议.     

人力资本与经济增长相关性研究——基于河北省的研究

人力资本由于可使其它生产要素产生递增效益,而被视为推动经济持续增长的源泉。河北省从改革开放到现在,人们已逐渐认识到技术、知识和人才是转变经济增长方式、提高经济增长质量的关键性因素。本文根据河北省改革开放以来的相关数据,采用先进的计量经济学方法,对河北省人力资本与经济增长时间序列进行相关关系检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,并在此基础上建立模型来计算人力资本的产出弹性。     

上海地方财政科技投入与经济增长的协整分析

本文根据时间序列动态均衡关系分析方法,通过上海1985-2001年地方财政科技投入与经济增长的有关数据变量进行协整分析与因果关系检验,并建立了相应的误差修正模型,揭示了上海地方财政科技投入与经济增长的动态均衡关系.     

环境规制对可持续发展的影响研究——以陕西省煤炭产业为例

随着新时代绿色经济发展战略理念的提出,环境治理已经成为各级人民政府密切关注的热点问题之一。针对当前我国对环境规制政策日趋从严的现状,运用陕西省2011—2020年煤炭消费量、地区生产总值、大气污染值的相关时间序列数据作为研究对象,运用回归分析方法,对煤炭消费量对经济发展和环境的影响进行实证分析,指出了环境规制对该省可持续发展的积极影响来源。结论认为：陕西省煤炭资源型地区,环境污染随经济的增长表现出降低的趋势,环境规制在其中起到重要作用,该省经济发展和环境正处于向好态势。根据陕西省当前存在的问题,从政府层面、陕西省层面、企业层面,提出相应的建议。     

基于Matlab的BP神经网络煤炭需求预测模型

煤炭是中国的基础能源,支撑着国民经济的高速发展。在未来的一段时期,煤炭的基础能源地位不会改变。要合理利用煤炭资源,保证我国经济的健康发展,煤炭需求的预测必不可少。近年来煤炭需求的预测存在一定的不足,精度较低。本文基于Matlab技术的双隐层BP神经网络对煤炭需求进行模拟分析,通过实际数据检验和实证分析,预测了未来五年的煤炭需求量。     

Educational Landscapes and Urban Development. Contextual and Spatial Interfaces and Linkages

In the broad sociopolitical discussion on education quality within the last decade, it has become apparent that education is gaining importance for urban development, as well as space and the urban context are important dimensions of education. This becomes particularly evident in concepts for local educational landscapes (Ger. Bildungslandschaften). The young field of research on educational landscapes is currently lacking empirical research from spatial and planning sciences. In the paper, the current state of scientific research on educational landscapes in Germany and Europe and first insights to contextual and spatial interfaces and linkages between education and urban development in general are presented.     

Inventory Models with Continuous and Poisson Demands and Discounted and Average Costs

We develop a new, unified approach to treating continuous‐time stochastic inventory problems with both the average and discounted cost criteria. The approach involves the development of an adjusted discounted cycle cost formula, which has an appealing intuitive interpretation. We show for the first time that an (s, S) policy is optimal in the case of demand having a compound Poisson component as well as a constant rate component. Our demand structure simultaneously generalizes the classical EOQ model and the inventory models with Poisson demand, and we indicate the reasons why this task has been a difficult one. We do not require the surplus cost function to be convex or quasi‐convex as has been assumed in the literature. Finally, we show that the optimal s is unique, but we do not know if optimal S is unique.     

E-governance and Corruption-developments and Issues in Ethiopia

This paper reports the results of a survey of 400 respondents in Ethiopia about factors generating corruption and the potential of e-Governance to mitigate corruption. It is suggested that e-Governance can help not only in weeding out corruption but also in the establishment of sounder government citizen relationships in Ethiopia. While e-Governance cannot cure all the structural factors that breed corruption in the society, strategic implementation of e-Governance can help improve the critical variable in combating corruption-government citizen relationships. It is argued that while e-Governance initiatives can make important contributions to improving public services they can best do so by helping improve overall relationships between governments and citizens.

The Challenge of Political and Economic Change in Poland and Central and Eastern Europe

This article discusses political and economic changes in Poland, Central and Eastern Europe emerging since the demise of the ‘closed system’ in 1989. The presentation explores the range of change, the method and the sequence of change. General lessons in economic transition as identified by Polish Finance Minister Lezak Balcerowicz are discussed. The challenges involved in macroeconomic stabilization, radical liberalization, currency convertibility, subsidy reduction and conversion of state-owned enterprises are reviewed. Despite their complexity, economic and political reforms proved necessary and inevitable. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Work and shopping overflow — Consequences and differentiation among selected psychological and demographic characteristics

Contemporary individuals are forced to deal with excessive stimulation, which causes an overload in the cognitive and emotional areas. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible factors differentiating the perceived level of work and shopping overflow experienced by individuals and consequences of these states. Two psychological variables: cognitive control and sensation seeking, are chosen as potential factors differentiating the perceived levels of overflow. We assume that individuals with high cognitive control and sensation seeking will report lower levels of both types of examined overflows. Experiencing low overflow levels may manifest in the search for additional stimuli, rather than in the desire to limit them. Two indexes of behavior connected to seeking extra stimulation are selected: one belonging to the area of consumer behavior (readiness to participate in the experience economy) and one belonging to vocational behavior (choosing a boundaryless career). The quantitative study is conducted on a sample of 297 management students who are currently employed. The research results support the relation between cognitive control and perceived level of work and shopping overflow. Individuals who can cognitively control the situation and the incoming stimuli report lower levels of overflow. No significant relationship between sensation seeking and the level of overflow is found. The demographic variables that influence the perceived overflow are age and salary for work overflow and age for shopping overflow. As far as consequences of overflow are concerned, a low level of shopping overflow is related to readiness to participate in the experience economy. However, there is no link between work overflow and preferred career pattern. The managerial implications for human resource management and marketing strategy design are discussed.     

Review and preview of productivity research and applications

During the last two decades, productivity research and applications have not been given adequate importance when trying to attain excellence in the management of manufacturing enterprises. Recent developments in managerial philosophies Total Quality Management and Business Process Re-engineering , manufacturing technologies Flexible Manufacturing Systems, Computer Integrated Manufacturing, etc. and Information Technology innovations have made the traditional productivity improvement techniques obsolete. This article presents a review consisting of analyses of literature on productivity and a survey of manufacturing enterprises. A five-step preview strategy on productivity is enumerated which provides a meaningful direction towards future productivity research and application. The article is concluded by briefly describing the current research that is being carried out based on the preview strategy evolved.     

Modeling Pathology Workload and Complexity to Manage Risks and Improve Patient Quality and Safety

Anatomic pathology (AP) laboratories provide critical diagnostic information that help determine patient treatments and outcomes, but the risks of AP operations and their impact on patient safety and quality of care remain poorly recognized and undermanaged. Hospital-based laboratories face an operational and risk management challenge because clinical work of unknown quantity and complexity arrives with little advance notice, which results in fluctuations in workload that can push operations beyond planned capacity, leading to diagnostic delays and potential errors. Modeling the dynamics of workload and complexity in AP offers the opportunity to better use available information to manage risks. We developed a stock-and-flow model of a typical AP laboratory operation and identified key exogenous inputs that drive AP work. To test the model, we generated training and validations data sets by combining data from the electronic medical records and laboratory information systems over multiple years. We demonstrate the implementation of 10-day AP work forecast generated on a daily basis, and show its performance in comparison with actual work. Although the model somewhat underpredicts work as currently implemented, it provides a framework for prospective management of resources to ensure quality during workload surges. Although full implementation requires additional model development, we show that AP workload largely depends on few and accessible clinical inputs. Recognizing that level loading of work in a hospital is not practical, predictive modeling of work can empower laboratories to triage, schedule, or mobilize resources more effectively and better manage risks that reduce the quality or timeliness of diagnostic information.     

Definitions and linkages between operational and strategic flexibilities

This paper aims at clarifying the concept of strategic flexibility, starting from that much more common of manufacturing flexibility (or operational one). After characterizing the dimensions of the latter, a classification of strategic flexibility is presented which distinguishes four categories. The measures of strategic flexibility are also investigated. Then two analogies are pointed out with the operational flexibility. The first, of the cause-effect type, is on two levels: at the business level, the operational flexibility estimates the variation of practices, while the strategic flexibility measures the effect obtained on performances; at the corporate level, the operational flexibility estimates the variation of competences, while the strategic flexibility evaluates the change in business. The second analogy, related to the classification variables, permits the main types of operational and strategic flexibilities to be placed in a single framework. So this study seeks to provide a framework—which has not been proposed in prior literature—for analyzing and evaluating the correlated concepts of operational and strategic flexibilities, to create a theoretical foundation for future research and empirical testing.     

Review and reappraisal of modelling and predicting mental workload in single- and multi-task environments

The concept of mental workload has long been recognized as an important factor in individual performance within complex systems. It is documented that either overload or underload may degrade performance, and further affect the efficiency of the whole system. Therefore, systems designers need some explicit models to predict the mental workload imposed on individuals by the system at an early design phase so that alternative system designs can be evaluated. In examining mental-workload literature, it is found that few predictive mental-workload models have considered factors specific to individuals. This research aims to develop a practical framework for predicting mental workload in both single- and multi-task environments considering such individual factors. In order to describe mental workload more precisely and more completely, a framework for mentalworkload definitions, which contains instantaneous workload, average workload, accumulated workload, peak workload and overall workload, is proposed. In order to model individual factors, two new variables, i.e. effective workload and ineffective workload, are introduced to model the taskgenerated workload and individual-generated workload. The extension of the model to multi-task environments is also discussed. The proposed conceptual models are domain-independent and could be used to guide the development of operational models for different specific tasks.     

Additive and Multiplicative Models and Multistage Carcinogenesis Theory

In light of the Armitage-Doll multistage carcinogenesis theory, this paper examines the assumption that an additive relative risk relationship is indicative of two carcinogens that affect the same stage in the cancer process. We present formulas to compute excess cancer risks for a variety of patterns for limited exposure durations to two carcinogens that affect the first and penultimate stages; and using an index of synergy proposed by Thomas (1982), we find a number of these patterns to produce additive, or nearly additive, relative risk relationships. The consistent feature of these patterns is that the two exposure periods are of short duration and occur close together.