The demographic impact of Partition in the Punjab in 1947

We use data from the 1931, 1941, and 1951 censuses of India and the 1951 census of Pakistan to examine the demographic consequences of Partition in the Punjab in 1947. Had growth rates for the period 1931-41 for the Punjab as a whole continued to 1951, the population of the Punjab would have been 2.9 million larger than that recorded in 1951. Population losses from migration and mortality above age 20 were approximately 2.7 million greater between 1941 and 1951 than would have been predicted by loss rates between 1931 and 1941. We estimate a net Partition-related population movement out of the combined Punjab of about 400,000. We conclude from several lines of analysis that Partition-related population losses in the Punjab, either from deaths or unrecorded migration, were in the range 2.3-3.2 million. Partition was also marked by a dramatic religious homogenization at the district level.     

The demographic impact of Partition in the Punjab in 1947

We use data from the 1931, 1941, and 1951 censuses of India and the 1951 census of Pakistan to examine the demographic consequences of Partition in the Punjab in 1947. Had growth rates for the period 1931–41 for the Punjab as a whole continued to 1951, the population of the Punjab would have been 2.9 million larger than that recorded in 1951. Population losses from migration and mortality above age 20 were approximately 2.7 million greater between 1941 and 1951 than would have been predicted by loss rates between 1931 and 1941. We estimate a net Partition-related population movement out of the combined Punjab of about 400,000. We conclude from several lines of analysis that Partition-related population losses in the Punjab, either from deaths or unrecorded migration, were in the range 2.3–3.2 million. Partition was also marked by a dramatic religious homogenization at the district level.     

Vital rates in India 1961-71 estimated from 1971 census data

Abstract In the last decade the increase in the population of India, while, of course, very large, was smaller than predicted by official forecasts. With the use of recent census and sample registration data - in the absence of age-specific rates and adequate vital statistics - this paper provides estimates of fertility and mortality through the reverse-survival and forward-projection methods. Birth rates are estimated as 40·5-42, death rates as 18-20, and life expectancy at birth as 45-46 years. Mortality decline had been smaller than forecast but more than during any comparable period in the past, even though current mortality levels, particularly infant mortality, are still high. Males continue to have a longer life expectation than females, with a difference that has widened in the past decade. The decline of between seven and ten per cent in the crude birth rate is largely due to changes in marital fertility and to some extent to changes in age and marital composition. Because of greater decline in death rates than birth rates, the 1961-71 decade shows a higher rate of population growth than previous periods.     

Construction of nuptiality tables for the single population in India: 1901–1931

In this paper abridged nuptiality tables for the single population of India have been constructed for the three consecutive decades 1901–1911, 1911–1921 and 1921–1931. No significant time trend has been observed in the nuptiality rates among the single population of India. The rates are initially small, but increase rapidly until they reach a maximum at ages 25–30 for bachelors and 15–20 for spinsters, following which they gradually decline. During 1901–1931, unlike Western countries, India had not experienced any revolution in marriage habits encompassing traditional child marriages. The distinctive marks of the Indian age patterns of marriage are higher age-specific marriage rates combined with lower ages at marriage and lower proportions of people who never marry with relative stability of marriage habits during the early part of the twentieth century.     

Migration between India and Pakistan, 1951–61

A critical evaluation of the available data on migration between India and Pakistan in the 1951-61 decade leads to the conclusion that there was a substantial net migration of Pakistan-born persons into India, but only a negligible net migration of India-born persons into Pakistan. Annual administrative statistics published by the Indian Government suggest an immigration from Pakistan of the order of 1.16 to 1.32 million. More importantly, birthplace data from the Indian censuses indicate a net intercensal immigration of Pakistan-born persons amounting to 1.19 to 1.34 million, depending on the assumed level of mortality. The Pakistani census data on the India-born show no net influx from India during 1951-61. Intercensal growth rates for the populations of different religious faiths in Pakistan are consistent with the estimates of net immigration into India. The migrants and the survivors of their progeny are estimated to represent a net gain of about 1.68 million by India and to account for no more than 2.2 per cent of the total population growth in India during 1951-61.     

Estimation of interprovincial migration for Canada from place of birth by residence data, 1951–1961

In Canada, unlike many other countries, birth-residence data by age and sex are available in each of the decennial censuses from 1931 to 1961 which permit the estimation of intercensal net migration for the provinces and regions. After a brief discussion of the basic measures of migration from birth-residence data the paper focusses on the problems and procedures in estimating interprovincial net migration, 1951–1961 for Canada using “the place of birth survival ratio method, ” and it evaluates the estimates thus obtained. The evaluation of the estimates, taking into consideration the inherent limitations of the method and its merits compared with period migration estimates by the census survival ratio method and life table survival ratio method, suggests that the net migration estimates for the Canadian born by the place of birth survival ratio method are probably more reliable than those by the other two methods. One striking finding was that the net migration curves by age obtained from the census survival ratio and place of birth survival ratio estimates were smoother than the curve obtained with the use of the more accurate life table survival ratios. Furthermore, whatever the relative accuracy of net migration may be, the birth-residence approach is capable of furnishing more details about the net migration of the native born than by the standard survival-ratio methods. For the population under age 10 intercensal estimates were directly derived from the place of birth and residence distributions by age.     

New estimates of the vital rates of the United States black population during the nineteenth century

The difficulties of obtaining credible estimates of vital rates for the black population throughout the entire nineteenth century are overcome in this study. The methodology employed the notion of deviating networks of mortality rates for each general mortality level, which was taken from the United Nations studyThe Concept of a Stable Population. Period life tables and vital rates for intercensal periods were generated from the new estimates of the black population at each census date. The results of this study are highly compatible both with the life tables for the death-registration states in the twentieth century and the recent Coale and Rives reconstruction for the period from 1880 to 1970 and with several estimates of vital rates previously made for the mid-nineteenth century. This study places the mean life expectancy at birth for the black population during the nineteenth century at about 33.7 years for both sexes. The infant death rate (1000m (0)) is shown to have varied between 222 and 237 for females and between 266 and 278 for males. The intrinsic crude death rate centered on 30.4 per thousand during the century, while the birth rate declined from 53.2 early in the century to about 43.8 at the end.     

A reconsideration of negro-white mortality differentials in the united states

This paper summarizes the results of an investigation of the validity of Negro-white mortality differentials as reflected in the series of official United States life tables since the turn of the century. Pertinent excerpts from these often-quoted tables are reproduced in Appendix Table A-1 for convenient reference. The paper divides into two main parts.First, mortality levels and differentials beyond early childhood are derived, without use of the existing vital records, by interpreting the series of ten-year cumulative survival rates implicit in the census records for native whites and for Negroes. The results are in general agreement with the official figures, particularly for males.Second, mortality levels and differentials in early childhood are estimated by extrapolating the official 1)5 values via model life tables; that is, by the analytical procedure that would be followed in the absence of direct information on early childhood mortality. Unless it is assumed that age patterns of death for United States Negroes were extremely deviant from those found in populations with reliable census and vital statistics, one must conclude that the official figures grossly underestimate early childhood mortality for Negroes, at least for the period, 1910-40. It follows that, during those decades, Negro-white mortality differentials in terms of expectation of life at birth were also substantially higher than is suggested by the official estimates.     

Reduction in fertility due to induced abortions: A simulation model

The impact of induced abortion on fertility under Indian conditions is studied in this paper. The model is executed on a computer. First, matrices of birth probabilities specific to age and age at marriage are obtained, with the help of a simulation model, under various assumptions regarding the incidence of induced abortion. Later, making use of these matrices, period fertility measures such as age specific marital fertility rates and crude birth rates are obtained for India for the period 1961-75. One of the findings is that the effect of induced abortion in reducing the birth rate of India will be greater if it is used as a supplement to various family planning methods.     

Recent fertility declines in Hong Kong: the role of the changing age structure

Abstract The birth rate in Hong Kong fell rapidly from 1961 to 1966: from 35·5 in 1961 to 25·8 in 1966 1 These rates are based on corrected estimates of population and of births made after the 1966 census. They differ somewhat from rates published before that, because the earlier rates had not been adjusted for some underregistration of births and had been calculated on larger population bases than proved to be justified by the census. - a decline of27%. Such a decline deserves special attention, because there are only a few examples of such trends in poor, high-fertility populations since World War II. We have just begun to find evidence of such declines in a few of the other rapidly developing countries of Asia: Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia.     

Atechnique for estimating life expectancy with crude vital rates

This paper describes a method of estimating life expectancy at birth on the basis of crude vital rates. The method is derived from stable population theory and it furnishes good estimates insofar as the current crude vital rates of a population are close to its intrinsic rates. This condition is generally met in closed populations which have not experienced sharp movements in fertility. The method is useful for estimating life expectancy in developing nations with good sample registration systems but for which information on age is of poor quality. It is also useful for estimating the movement of life expectancy in certain European nations in the period prior to regular census taking. There are a number of nations and regions in Europe for which long series of birth and death rates are available but for which census age counts are widely spaced.     

Provisional evaluation of the 1970 census count of American Indians

Estimates of the American Indian population under 20 years of age on April I, 1970, based on birth and death statistics for a 20-year period, show a possible net undercount of 6.9 percent for this age group in the 1970 census. However, for some particular ages the estimates indicate net overcounts in the census. Likewise, the net increase of the entire American Indian population as measured by the difference between the 1960 and 1970 censuses is 67,000 greater than the natural increase for the decade. Detailed analysis of cohort data with respect to the possible causes of the differences between the estimates and the census figures indicate that a portion of the estimated net overcounts can be attributed to classification, as well as coverage, problems. The estimated net overcounts offer support for the hypothesis that many individuals who were registered as white at birth and who were counted as white in the 1960 census shifted their racial self-identification from white to American Indian during the 1960s.     

Stochastic indicators of occupational mobility,Canada: 1951–1961

Though various studies on spatial mobility are available, little is known about occupational mobility in Canada. This study is concerned with the estimation of Canadian occupational mobility from aggregate census data. The process of occupational mobility is characterized as a stationary Markov chain and certain meaningful conditions are imposed on the transition probabilities to convert the estimation strategy into a linear programming problem. Cross-section data for 1951 and 1961 are employed for estimation purposes. The study reveals that in 1951–61, the Canadian females had higher rates of mobility than the males.     

Population estimates for Bangladesh: The use of a specific transitional population model

Summary The development of population in Bangladesh was affected by a succession of man-made and natural calamities, such as the Bengal Famine of 1943, refugee movements following the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, devastating floods and cyclones around 1970, and the military action during the war of liberation. Though there had been a tradition of census taking and vital registration in Bangladesh, as part of the Indian sub-continent, extending for over a century, vital registration was so deficient as to be almost valueless, and there were gross misstatements of age and under-enumeration in the censuses. In the census of 1941, on the other hand, political manoeuvring led to a substantial overcount of the population. In this paper, Bangladesh population trends are studied within the broader framework of the subcontinent, taking account of plausible differentials. A considerable element of uncertainty was introduced into growth trends as a result of variations in the completeness of census-taking and of unrecorded refugee and labour movements across open land borders. In this connection the substantial inflationary bias associated with techniques of population estimation using the dual record system is discussed. The application of stable population models is even less justified in Bangladesh with its history of declining mortality. A transitional age structure model was constructed on the basis of the information available on declining mortality and accelerating growth and the model was made even more specific by modifications which took care of the impact of recent calamities and of unrecorded migration. The population base of the census of 1961 was adjusted in accordance with this model. The local mortality age pattern was used in projecting the population by sex and age groups to the date at which the census was originally due to be taken in 1971, and to the date when it was actually taken in March 1974. The post-1970 calamities and their effect on mortality were ignored. The aggregate estimate of population of 72.9 million in March 1974 is slightly in excess of the census count (by about two per cent) reported provisionally as 71.3 million. The excess in our estimate could be accounted for by the losses due to cyclone and military action.     

20世纪50-60年代中国人口统计数据考略

论文指出,关于1959-1961年人口死亡规模的争议,源于国家统计局1983年公布的历史人口数据的缺陷。论文验证了国家统计局关于数据来源于公安部门的说明,指出1983年公布的数据就是当年的统计数。论文利用公安系统1957年的大规模分年龄人口和分年龄死亡人口的统计,建构了分年龄人口在1953-1964年间的生存率。根据1953年人口普查分年龄人口与生存率,计算了1964年的预期人口,比较了其与1964年人口普查时实际的分年龄人口,证实了当年确实有大量的人口损失存在。     

Bombay migration study: A pilot analysis of migration to an Asian metropolis

This paper reports on a pilot study of migration to Greater Bombay, initiated on the recommendation of the Population Commission of United Nations, and utilizes both published tables from the 1961 Census of India and a set of specially prepared tables from the same census. Migrants were defined by birthplace and cross-classified by age and duration of residence in Bombay.Data (1901-61) on net migration (obtained from successive age-sex distributions) are analyzed in terms of underlying trends to give historical perspective to the analysis of recent data with special emphasis on changes in industrial and occupotiona structure.For the 1951-61 decade, the extensiveness of out-migration of former in-migrants, its age-sex selectivity, and its high incidence among recent migrants are demonstrated. As is true elsewhere, migration to Bombay is shown to be highly selective for ages of maximum economic activity. Migration streams to Bombay were preponderantly male, and, among males, the married segment predominated. The propensity to migrate was unusually high among minority religious groups. As to educational level, migrants were superior to the general population at origin but inferior to nonmigrants residing in Bombay. The work participation rates of migrants were higher for every age group than for resident nonmigrants; the proportion of employees was higher; and there was evidence of migrant concentration in industries and occupations requiring less skill, less education, and less capital than was true of nonmigrants. There were significant tendencies toward "division of labor" among various migration streams on the basis of skills and abilities acquired not only by formal education but also through tradition and precept. From the standpoint of the promotion of social change, the large volume (and selectivity) of reverse or return migration is especially note-worthy.The paper concludes with a methodological evaluation of the reliability and validity of duration-of-residence data and indicates that the relatively simple techniques of enumeration and tabulation utilized in this pilot study may have wide applicability in other developing countries.     

A statistical analysis of the life expectancy of the residents of our country, 1973-75]

Statistical analysis of life expectancy is important in assessing population health and its characteristics and in studying human diseases and natural population changes. Life tables are constructed and statistical analysis is performed retrospectively on data accumulated over a 3-year (1973-1975) period. The data were supplied by the Office of Cancer Prevention and Treatment of the Ministry of Health, which originated from 24 provinces, representing an accumulated population of 2.04 billion, with a total mortality of 15.29 million. Results show that life expectancy in China has greatly improved since Liberation. Thus, in 1935, the average life expectancy for Nanjing residents was under 35 years. In 1951, the average life expectancy for male and female residents of Shanghai were 42.74 and 46.76 years respectively. But for the 1973-1975 period, the average Chinese life expectancy was 63.62 years for males and 66.31 years for females, with higher life expectancy for coastal provinces than for inland provinces. Cardiovascular diseases (excluding arteriosclerotic heart diseases), malignant tumors, and cerebrovascular diseases were the major causes of death in regions with higher life expectancy, while respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, and diseases of the newborn were the major causes of death in regions with lower life expectancy.     

Variation in life expectancy during the twentieth century in The United States

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reports life expectancy at birth (LE) for each year in the United States. Censal year estimates of LE use complete life tables. From 1900 through 1947, LEs for intercensal years were interpolated from decennial life tables and annual crude death rates. Since 1948, estimates have been computed from annual life tables. A substantial drop in variation in LE occurred in the 1940s. To evaluate these methods and examine variation without artifacts of different methods, we estimated a consistent series of both annual abridged life tables and LEs from official NCHS age-specific death rates and also LEs using the interpolation method for 1900-1998. Interpolated LEs are several times as variable as life table estimates, about 2 times as variable before 1940 and about 6.5 times as variable after 1950. Estimates of LE from annual life tables are better measures than those based on the mixed methods detailed in NCHS reports. Estimates from life tables show that the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on LE was much smaller than indicated by official statistics. We conclude that NCHS should report official estimates of intercensal LE for 1900-1948 computed from life tables in place of the existing LEs that were computed by interpolation.     

Mortality rates of elderly Asian American populations based on Medicare and Social Security data

We present sex- and age-specific death probabilities for the elderly of six Asian American subgroups--Chinese, Filipino, Indian, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese--based on data from social Security Administration files. We determined ethnicity by combining race, place of birth, surname, and given name. The data source and ethnic determination are the same for deaths and the population at risk, avoiding the problem of noncomparability present when data for the numerator come from vital records and data for the denominator come from census records. We found that death rates for elderly Asian Americans are lower than those for whites, and that socioeconomic differences between subgroups do not translate into like differences in mortality.     

General growth balance method: A reformulation for populations open to migration

This paper proposes a reformulation of the general growth balance method for estimating census and registration completeness so as to make it applicable even to populations that are affected by migration. It also discusses a new procedure of line fitting that could be useful in countries where the input data are severely affected by age misreporting. The method is applicable to countries where data on age distribution of the population are available for two points in time from either censuses or surveys. Following closely the original proposal of Brass, it involves adjusting the 'partial' birth rates for age-specific disturbances from growth and migration rates. Beyond correcting the death rates, the method is useful in inferring the relative completeness of the censuses, and in deriving a robust estimate of birth rate under certain conditions. The application of the method is illustrated using the example of the male population of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh for the period 1981 to 1991.