Socioeconomic determinants of China's urban fertility

This paper examines socioeconomic forces other than population policies and family planning programs that have affected the fertility transition in urban China. The authors argue that before and since the intensification of population planning activities, the government influenced fertility directly and indirectly through socialization of the economy, the transformation of the Chinese family, and the provision of education, employment, health, medical, welfare, cultural, and related services in urban areas. The various social institutions and subsystems of society have greatly weakened the motivation for large families. The byproducts of the slow urbanization process in urban China including housing shortages, unemployment, rising living standards, changes in the cost of raising a child, and urban-rural downward mobility have affected the social and economic costs of childbearing, which in turn have affected the postponement of childbearing. Thus, our considerations of urban China's fertility transition must be broadened to include the issues of social development strategy in Chinese urban experience.     

Characteristics of fertility transition in China]

Since 1949 and in particular the 1970s, China's fertility rate has undergone rapid and continuous change. This is a direct reflection of China's success in population control. The decline in China's fertility rate regulated the speed of population growth, altered the population structure, and brought population development to be in line with economic development. Data used in this article are from the National 1/1000 Random Sample of Fertility (1982), the 10% Sample of the 1982 Population Census, 1981, 1983 and 1984 statistical yearbooks, and other data from the Statistics Bureau. China's fertility rate dropped an annual average of 2.5/1000 from 1950-81. However, this time, the fertility rate fluctuated, depending on political, social and economic factors. As the nation prospered, the fertility rate remained stable and high; as China suffered severe economic losses, the fertility rate dropped. A steady decline was evident beginning in 1970 as the government began to propagandize the merits of smaller families. Between 1971-83 the average yearly rate of growth was 1.6%. The number of years a woman was fertile was similar for both urban and rural women in 1964 and 1981; moreover, in 1981 both groups showed a sharp drop in fertility between the ages of 27-35. The 1 child rate for urban women rose from 21.9% in 1964 to 86.6% in 1981. Urban women tend to be more receptive to late marriage, late births, and fewer children. This change in the 1 child rate contributed to the drop in the birth rate of 31.1/1000 in 1964 to 20.9/1000 in 1981.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

Birth limitation, late marriage and decline in the natural increase rate of the population]

Birth limitation and late marriage are two major factors which contribute to the reduction of population growth rate. These two factors should be used as the fundamental method for effectively controlling China's population growth. Facts have proved that birth limitation and late marriage are complimentary to each other and should match each other closely. Since late marriage cannot be delayed indefinitely, the average fertility rate for females under the age of 25 in their first marriage may still reach 5-6 children, provided that birth control measures are not taken. Because of this situation, at the same time that late marriage is encouraged, birth control should also be promoted positively. All married couples should be advised to have only one child. In order to ensure the everlasting practice of these two methods, certain policies concerning family planning and birth control should be formulated according to China's current economic situation. These policies include enforcement of an ideological education and social insurance practice in order to solve the problem of the high population growth rate in the countryside and effectively reach the goal of controlling China's population growth.     

中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。     

论稳定低生育水平

中国经济已进入以扩大内需为主的新发展阶段,从可持续发展计,保持经济持续、快速和健康发展,必须把已出现的低生育水平稳定住。我国已经是低生育率国家,但低生育水平还不稳定。从当前和今后的发展来看,稳定低生育水平,必须使人口政策和经济政策协调起来,积极寻求扩大内需与稳定低生育水平的政策结合点,增加计划生育的政府投入,完善计划生育利益导向机制,处理好稳定现行政策与人口与计划生育工作机制改革与创新的关系。     

A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.     

Presentation and establishment of a system of total progressive fertility rates and relevant models

Demographic studies necessarily rely on adequate and accurate statistical data. To take into consideration China's present situation of population control and planned birth practice, a system of total progressive fertility rate (TPFR) different from the parity progression ratio is established and its relevant model presented in order to make indicators used in analysing women's 1st marriage and fertility level reflect as closely as possible the actual situation. Here, TFR and TPFR, both used in analyzing fertility level, are compared so as to show that TPFR is a methodology more appropriate for use in the analysis of China's fertility. The model is based on the fact that women's vital events happen progressively from being born to completing childbearing. In composing the model, both women's age structure and parity structure are considered and the regularity of their changes with different years is defined. In China, the population development program has been brought into the overall social and economic development plan. Thus it is necessary to practice planned birth in order to make the population develop in a way which is in keeping with the social and economic development. Compared with other models or theories, it is more realistic to use the model discussed above in studies on China's population policy.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

生育率演变的生态学逻辑及人口增长的长期趋势

人口增长的长期过程一直是充满困惑与引发争论的话题,将人类复归到生态系统的普通成员,按照生态学逻辑构建一个由替代生育率内生引导、人口容量外生制约的人口增长新模型,以代替用具体社会经济因子解释短周期人口变动的传统思路,探讨生育率转变的一般模式及人口发展的长期趋势。工业革命以来,全球人口已经或正在经历着第一次、第二次生育率转变,全球生育率演变可以聚类为欧美、亚非拉、撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚四种区域模式;在计划生育政策的推动下,我国在短短的三十年内完整经历了两次生育率转变。极限替代生育率是生育率演变的长期目标,但当前已有一些国家跌破更替水平,这也许会成为各个国家的普遍经历,预示着人口容量约束的日益显性化;世界及主要国家的人口规模正在日益逼近其容量极限,并会在惯性驱动下突破容量限制,达到峰值后再以负增长方式趋近人口容量,同期的生育率也将向极限替代生育率递增复归。按趋势模拟世界和中国的可持续人口容量分别约为65亿人和12亿人。研究设计出测量人口增长惯性的新指标——人口增长惯性系数,它是生育率与实时替代生育率之比或出生率与死亡率之比,相比常用的人口惯性因子更为简便易行。     

On China's family planning policy

The birthrate in China in 1985, according to Li Honggui, Deputy Director of the General Office, the State Family Planning Commission, was 17.8/1000 with a death rate of 6.57/1000 and a natural growth rate of 11.23/1000. The number of births in 1985 was 18,520,000; 59.1% of these births were 1st births, 24% 2nd births, and 16.9% 3rd or more births. Women of childbearing age who pledged to have only 1 child accounted for 15.6% but only for 10% in rural areas. The peak fertility age of Chinese women was 24. Due to the age structure, a birth boom will begin in 1986 and will last for a decade. It is projected that the natural population growth rate will rise to 12.4/1000 in the 1986-96 period. The Chinese government has advocated a "1 child for 1 couple" policy since 1979. Couples who have difficulties can have a 2nd child with approval. Minority nationalities are permitted to have 3 children. The strategy of China's family planning program is to combine the guidance of the government with the motivation of the population. Consequently, communication and education have been emphasized. The situation is reported to be improving. At this time, women are advised to terminate unplanned pregnancies as early as possible. Individuals who refuse to consider the advice will be taxed.     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.     

Toward a national population policy

Canada has notexplicit national population policy although various policies do have an effect on the size, rate of growth, distribution, and composition of the nation's population. Traditionally, Canada has been pronoatalist, particularly favoring immigration. In response to the 1974 Bucharest World Population Conference, the Canadian government solicited public testimony regarding a population policy for the nation. Environmentalists urged population limitation with a view to maintaining the ecosystem. Social justice and reallocation of resources were urged by an 2nd group. The quality of life argument was used by both proponents and opponents of population limitation. Canada has increased its world assistance for economic and population activities. With 1 of the highest growth rates of the developed countries, (in 1976-1977, 1.3% vs. .8% for the U.S. and .4% for France), Canada needs to propound a slow growth ethic. With future fertility at replacement level, Canada will look to immigration for population input.     

俄罗斯人口发展状况及对中国的启示

本文利用俄罗斯的历史人口数据,对俄罗斯人口数量和结构变动状况进行了分析,并对俄罗斯三次人口转型中的社会经济情况变化对人口变动状况的影响进行了分析。结果表明,俄罗斯的人口出生率下降很快,人口死亡率升高,总和生育率已远低于替代水平,因此人口自然增长率迅速下降,总人口数长期处于下降通道,出生预期寿命不增反降,特别是男性出生预期寿命远低于女性出生预期寿命。在推动人口增长的社会经济相关措施实施后,俄罗斯人口数量仍不能增加,这对目前总和生育率已经很低的中国有一定的借鉴意义。     

A better future is ahead of us

China's family planning program is implemented under the unified leadership of the Chinese government. The main responsibilities under this program are to set up and strengthen family planning offices at all levels, formulate relevent laws and regulations, work out programs, principles, and policies for population growth, carry out intensive publicity and education, speed up scientific and technological research on family planning, and mobilize all the people and related departments to support the work of family planning. Family planning in China is practised on a voluntary basis. Education on patriotism is conducted among the people to enable them to see that strict control of population growth and conscious practice of family planning according to policy have a crucial bearing on China's prosperity and well being. As shown in practice, China has not only succeeded in maintaining sustained and steady economic growth, but has also succeeded in drastically reducing the population birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate, and in extending average life expectancy. This demonstrates the superiority of China's socialist system. To control the growth of the population is an extremely arduous task. However, as long as China keeps to a practical and effective policy, the goal of keeping the total population at around 1.2 billion by the end of the century can be attained.     

The outlook of China's population after the stabilization of birth policy

A professor of the Institute of Population Research of the People's University of China attempts to project the future population development of China so that stabilization of the birth policy can be assessed. He divides China into the economically developed and population-controlled area (29% of the population), the economically subdeveloped and population fairly-controlled areas (59% of the population), and the economically less-developed areas where fertility is high (12% of the population). China's population is expected to increase because of the baby boom to 1.25-1.3 billion by the year 2000. Between 1996 and 2000, the growth rate is expected to decelerate and reach zero growth. After 2010, if growth is held at the replacement rate of 2.1, the population will still continue to grow slowly. Around 2100, China's population should be around 1.45-1.59 billion. This would cause a decrease of 27% of arable land. With a decline in fertility rate comes a rise in the amount of the aged population (4.9% in 1982 vs. 5.5% in 1987). The proportion of aged citizens is expected to rise with the stabilization policy until around 2040 where it can be held at about 18%. China's GNP by the year 2000 is expected to be US$1183.8 billion with the per capita GNP about US$934 (providing the population is controlled). Compare this figure with the per capita GNP of the world (US$30,100) and of developed countries (US$10,700) in 1988, and one can see that China is far behind the rest of the world in economic growth.     

人口增长与经济发展相互作用机制及实证分析——基于水平VAR的Granger因果分析方法和协整技术

本文首先分析了人口数量与经济发展相互作用机制,从环境承载力角度分析了一定数量的人口是经济发展的必要条件,而当社会生产力发展到在特定空间内相对稳定时,若不断增长的人口数量超过社会经济发展的需求与承受能力,这时经济发展就要受到人口增长的困扰。其次本论文运用Granger因果分析方法和协整技术研究了中国人口增长率与经济发展水平之间相互作用数量关系。结果为:在短期内,在5%的显著性水平下,人口增长率对经济发展水平没有显著影响,而经济发展水平却对人口增长率有显著影响;从长期看,人口增长率与经济发展水平之间具有显著的负相关关系。最后得出结论:只有控制人口增长(尤其是农村人口增长),才能促进经济发展;而只有促进经济发展,才能更好的控制人口增长,两者相辅相成。     

农村妇女生育意愿影响因素分析

低生育水平不代表我国农村社会生育意愿已经完成了从传统型向现代型的转变,因为生育意愿的变化受到社会和家庭多种因素的影响。借助莱宾斯坦孩子"成本-效用"理论,通过农村妇女边际孩子的选择对农村妇女生育意愿的影响因素进行分析。结果发现,性别偏好、孩子的经济成本以及抵御家庭风险、扩大家庭规模的效用在影响妇女生育意愿中起着较为明显的作用。了解农村妇女生育意愿影响因素,对建设先进生育文化有重要意义。     

Characteristics of age composition of China's population]

The age composition of Chinese population is analyzed via data collected in the 1982 census, which has been the basis for planning the social and economic life of 1 billion people. The census reflected complete population age composition, by birth, mortality and growth rates, from the time of the Liberation in 1949. The 10% sample, based on the national age composition, did not include the 4,240,000 people in military service which, as .42% of the total population, did not constitute a large differential. The population has grown rapidly since 1949. A few years before and after 1960, growth was reduced due to economic conditions, but the overall growth trend remained unchanged. The census showed that since 1970, growth has experienced a downturn, but the decrease was not related to the sudden drop before and after 1960. The census also showed China's population had changed from 1964's primarily young population to an adult population, but the process of population aging is only beginning, with a still relatively young population. China's population is not a stable one. This increase and decrease were greatly influenced by the changes in social and economic conditions. The disparity in age composition caused by these changes has created problems in social life, education, employment, marriage, housing, health, transportation, and cultural facilities. There are large differences in age composition between regions and ethnic groups. The decreases in birth and growth rate of the eastern coastal provinces were more rapid than those of the southwest and northwest regions. The age composition of minority nationalities is considerably younger than the Han people. Factors that influenced age composition characteristics included reduction of the neonatal mortality rate, the rises and falls of economic development, and the work in planned fertility.     

A brief introduction to China's family planning programme

China's family planning program is described in reference to its goals, approaches, and achievements. Between 1949-83, China's population increased from 541 million to 1,024,950,000. The population has a young age structure, and the median age is 22.9 years. 80% of the population is rural, and 90% of the population lives in the southeastern region of the country. In view of this demographic situation, the government recognizes the need to control population growth. China's goals for the year 2000 are to increase industrial and agricultural input by 400% and to keep population size below 1.2 billion in order to ensure that per capita income increases. In accordance with these goals, the government, in 1979, began advocating a 1-child policy. To ensure the survival of single children, the government also launched a program to upgrade maternal and child health (MCH). In some rural areas and among certain minority groups, the 1-child restriction is not applied. Family size goals will vary with time. These variations will reflect the need to maintain a balance between economic growth and population growth. A variety of incentives are used to promote the 1-child family. For example, single children receive medical and educational benefits, and in some rural areas, the parents of single children can obtain additional land contracts. Economic disincentives are also used. The government seeks to obtain compliance with the policy primarily through educating the public about the consequences of uncontrolled population growth. All channels of the mass media are used to deliver the messages, and the publicity campaign is especially intensive in rural areas. A comprehensive plan to provided family planning and population education for middle school students is currently being implemented. Each local area develops its own fertility control plan. This plan is then incorporated into the nation's overall plan and the overall plan is implemented from above. Family planning workers bring free contraceptives directly to the people, and family planning motivators are found in almost all villages, neighborhood committees, factories, and military units. As a result of these efforts, China made great strides in controlling population growth and improving MCH during the last decade. The birth rate declined from 27.93 to 18.62, and the total fertility rate declined from 4.01 to 2.48. 124 million couples were practicing contraception by the end of 1983. 41% used IUDs, 37.4% relied on tubal ligation, 12.9% relied on vasectomy, 5.1% on oral contraceptives, and 1% on other methods. The quality of maternal and child care also improved. 92.7% of all deliveries are now performed by trained midwifes. Infant and maternal mortality rates declined considerablely in recent years. Currently the respective rates are 35.68/1000 live births and 0.5/1000 live births. In 1983 alone, the gross national agricultural and industrial output increased by 46.1%. Since 1979 per capita income increased annually by 18.3% among rural residents and by 10.7% among urban workers. China controls and operates its own population program, but in recent years, it increased its cooperation with UN Fund for Population Activities, other UN agencies, and nongovernment agencies. China recently completed its 3rd national census, and demographic research institutes have been established in 10 universities.