Nuptiality and population growth

Abstract In the European historical experience, nuptiality patterns played a very significant role in the development of low fertility. Late marriage and widespread celibacy provided one of the mechanisms by which age-specific fertility rates were brought to low levels in the populations of Western Europe. In Eastern and Central Europe on the other hand, where marriage customarily occurred earlier and was more nearly universal, a somewhat slower fertility transition was achieved through a reduction in marital fertility - without any drastic accompanying nuptiality change. Populations of developing countries, however, commonly exhibit nuptiality patterns characterized by a still higher incidence and a considerably younger age-pattern of marriage than even the earliest observed schedule from Eastern Europe. With few exceptions, little work has been done to date to examine the implications of these very early and universal marriage schedules for fertility in general and for the growth of these populations in particular.(1) We have therefore tried to analyse the impact of nuptiality on the fertility and growth of a series of populations from developing nations where extra-marital fertility is negligible. Populations in which the prevalence of cohabitation by age is not well documented by existing marital-status data (mainly those in Latin America and tropical Africa) are excluded from this analysis; an attempt will be made in later work, however, to extend the analysis to these populations.     

Nuptiality and population growth

In the European historical experience, nuptiality patterns played a very significant role in the development of low fertility. Late marriage and widespread celibacy provided one of the mechanisms by which age-specific fertility rates were brought to low levels in the populations of Western Europe. In Eastern and Central Europe on the other hand, where marriage customarily occurred earlier and was more nearly universal, a somewhat slower fertility transition was achieved through a reduction in marital fertility — without any drastic accompanying nuptiality change. Populations of developing countries, however, commonly exhibit nuptiality patterns characterized by a still higher incidence and a considerably younger age-pattern of marriage than even the earliest observed schedule from Eastern Europe. With few exceptions, little work has been done to date to examine the implications of these very early and universal marriage schedules for fertility in general and for the growth of these populations in particular.¹ We have therefore tried to analyse the impact of nuptiality on the fertility and growth of a series of populations from developing nations where extra-marital fertility is negligible. Populations in which the prevalence of cohabitation by age is not well documented by existing marital-status data (mainly those in Latin America and tropical Africa) are excluded from this analysis; an attempt will be made in later work, however, to extend the analysis to these populations.     

Some aspects of mating and fertility in the West Indies

This paper deals with certain problems in fertility analysis in the West Indies that have their origin in two characteristics of the populations involved: the diversity of family forms and the imbalance between the sexes. Considerations of the main features of these family types, in terms of a fourfold classification as well as in terms of the threefold classification adopted at recent censuses (single, common law and married), show that many techniques relied on in the study of fertility among European populations are inapplicable to West Indian populations.

The limited data available permit only rough estimates of the rates of formation of different types of unions: but these emphasise that formal marriage usually takes place late in the childbearing period, generally after the couple has had one-or more children, that the formation of keeper unions begins considerably earlier and that the common law type is a transitional state between the looser keeper union and the state of formal marriage.

There seems to be no chance of studying fertility differentials among the several family types in terms of reproduction rates. Census data however provide three measures for this purpose, all of which show that fertility is highest for the married type and lowest for the single or keeper union. These differentials seem to run counter to the more usual pattern of fertility differentials which show fertility lowest among groups of high socio-economic standing.

Imbalance between the sexes is of importance primarily in the problem of arriving at satisfactory indices of fertility, though it may also have contributed somewhat to the establishment of the pattern of low marriage rates. Wide discrepancies between rates based on males and rates based on females appear, both in respect of fertility levels at given points of time and in respect of fertility trends. These discrepancies seem closely related to the imbalance between the sexes in. the reproductive age span. Under these conditions the use of joint G.R.B's clearly offers a more realistic measure of fertility than rates based on either sex.     

Marriage Patterns And Cumulative Fertility In West Malaysia: 1966–1967

Differentials in age at first marriage and being married more than once are discussed for a probability sample of West Malaysian currently married women 15-44 years of age. Both marriage ages and the incidence of multiple marriages vary greatly by race, place of current residence, wife's education, and husband's occupation; and the marriage variables are shown to have significant effects on the cumulative fertility of West Malaysian women. Early marriage leads to higher cumulative fertility and multiple marriages lead to lower cumulative fertility. Since the social groups with the highest proportions of early marriages are also those with the highest incidence of multiple marriages, the marriage variables explain some but not all of the variance in cumulative fertility for West Malaysian social groups. After adjustment for the effects of the marriage variables, rural Indian or Pakistani women still have the highest cumulative fertility and urban Chinese women with more than five years of schooling still have the lowest cumulative fertility.     

World fertility and the women's situation]

In 1981, total number of childbearing women in the world reached 9.8 hundred million. Their socioeconomic status and fertility level are very important data for the study of women's liberation and population control. Facing limited natural resources and a constant growing demand, many nations are studying how to control the population growth and achieve a "zero population growth." In nations with a high GNP, such as Switzerland, West Germany, and France, fertility is low. On the contrary, countries in central and south Asia and most parts of Africa are the poorest economically, and their fertility rate has remained very high. Another factor which is related to the fertility level is the degree of women's participation in the labor market. In Europe and North America, the percentage of women's participation in economic activities is high, and fertility is low. In Latin America and Africa, fertility is high, and the percentage of women's participation in economic labor is low. From the above, we may conclude that promotion of women's participation in the labor market and better employment conditions will reduce fertility. Another 2 factors related to fertility are marriage age and birth control rate. Late marriage and the extensive use of birth control measures are effective methods for reducing fertility. All the above mentioned factors are closely related to the woman's educational background. If women receive a better education and find better employment opportunities, delay their marriage age, and take birth control measures, fertility will be reduced and the population growth will be under control.     

Immigration and status exchange in Australia and the United States

This paper evaluates the status exchange hypothesis for Australia and the United States, two Anglophone nations with long immigration traditions whose admission regimes place different emphases on skills. Using log-linear methods, we demonstrate that foreign-born spouses trade educational credentials via marriage with natives in both Australian and U.S. marriage markets and, moreover, that nativity is a more salient marriage barrier for men than for women. With some exceptions, immigrant spouses in mixed nativity couples are better educated than native spouses in same nativity couples, but status exchange is more prevalent among the less-educated spouses in both countries. Support for the status exchange hypothesis is somewhat weaker in Australia partly because of lower average levels of education compared with the United States and partly because of the less sharply defined educational hierarchy at the postsecondary level.     

Child gender and the transition to marriage

We estimate the effect of a child's gender on the mother's probability of marriage or remarriage using data from the PSID Marital History and Childbirth and Adoption History Files. We find that the birth of a son speeds the transition into marriage when the child is born before the mother's first marriage. A competing-risks analysis shows that the positive effect of a son is stronger for marriages to the child's biological father than for other marriages. We find no significant effect of child gender on the mother's remarriage probabilities when the children are born within a previous marriage. These results are consistent with a marital-search model in which sons, more than daughters, increase the value of marriage relative to single parenthood.     

Household division of labor and cross-country differences in household formation rates

This paper considers the extent to which the gender division of labor affects the likelihood of household formation. Using repeated cross sectional data covering highly-developed nations, we consider the differential effects of aggregate social norms regarding the division of household labor. Controlling for other factors that affect the marriage market, our findings indicate that more egalitarian norms are associated with an increase in the probability of forming a household. When additionally controlling for individual attitudes, we find that, ceteris paribus, more egalitarian women are less likely to form a household, while more egalitarian men are more likely to do so. This pattern of results is consistent with economic models of the marriage market where partners contract over the future household division of labor. Moreover, given the salience of household formation as a proximate determinant of fertility, our results potentially shed light onto the process of below replacement fertility and the economic challenges associated with it.     

On the pattern of cohort fertility

Abstract An examination of the patterns of cohort fertility rates in a number of populations revealed the existence of a common pattern showing how mean family sizes of the different age-at-marriage groups of a given marriage cohort are built up over the reproductive span. Standard schedules of fertility patterns are generated by the use of the Gompertz function which defines the distribution of cumulative fertility rates of a given marriage cohort by marriage duration by means of only three parameters. The generated system is tested with the historical series for England and Wales and Sweden and is found adequate to describe widely different childbearing patterns. Some of the demographic implications of the existence of common fertility patterns are examined and the usefulness of the generated system in projecting future fertility trends is briefly discussed.     

A century of international mortality trends: I

An attempt is made to summarize the chief generalizations that can be drawn from available evidence on world mortality developments during the last hundred years. Past and prospective trends are compared for three broad groups of populations or approximately those in the West, Eastern and Southern Europe, and Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Two major points of emphasis are that the usual methods of comparing regional changes can usefully be supplemented by other approaches, and that the mortality history of Western nations may prove a highly unsatisfactory guide to future trends elsewhere. The study is based on a nearly complete compilation of the national life tables on record.     

Structure and change in causes of death: An international summary

Abstract Model patterns of the cause structure of mortality at different levels were established for males and females, based on data for 165 national populations. These patterns suggest that the cause of death most responsible for mortality variation is influenza/bronchitis, followed by 'other infectious and parasitic diseases', respiratory tuberculosis, and diarrhoeal disease. Together, these causes typically account for about 60 per cent of the change in level of mortality from all causes combined. Their respective contributions have not depended in an important way on the initial level of mortality. These results - especially tbe importance of the respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases - imply that past accounts may have over-emphasized the role in mortality decline of specific and well-defined infectious diseases and their corresponding methods of control. There is strong statistical support for the suggestion that most of the remainder of mortality variation should be ascribed to changes in cardio-vascular diseases, but that methods of cause-of-death assignment in high-mortality populations have often obscured the importance of these diseases. When death rates from 'other and unknown' causes are held constant, changes in cardio-vascular disease account for about one-quarter of the decline in mortality from 'all causes'.Although the causal factors are poorly established, corroborative results have been demonstrated cross-sectionally in the United States. The composition of the group of populations most deviant from the structural norms is apparently dominated by differentials in the mode of assigning deaths to cardio-vascular disease. However, when broad groups of regions or periods are distinguished, more subtle differences emerge. Controlling mortality level for all causes combined, diarrhoeal diseases are significantly higher in non-Western populations and southern/eastern Europe than in overseas Europe or northern/western Europe. These differences are probably related to standards of nutrition and personal hygiene, but may also reflect climatic factors. Much higher cardio-vascular mortality in overseas European populations than in non-Western populations at similar overall levels probably reflects variation in habits of life. Regional differences in death rates from violence, maternal mortality, respiratory tuberculosis and influenza/pneumonia/bronchitis are briefly noted and commented upon. Cause-of-death structures at a particular level of mortality display some important changes over time. Respiratory tuberculosis and 'other infectious and parasitic diseases' have tended to contribute less and less to a certain level of mortality. They have in part been 'replaced' by diarrhoeal disease, specifically in non-Western populations. These developments reflect an accelerating rate of medical and public health progress against the specific infectious diseases, and a disappointing rate of progress against diarrhoeal disease. Western and non-western populations have shared to approximately the same extent in the accelerating progress against infectious diseases, and developments during the post-war period are more appropriately viewed as an extension of prior trends rather than as radical departures therefrom. For males, cardio-vascular disease and cancer have significantly increased their contribution to a particular level of mortality, while no such tendency is apparent for females. These developments may be related to changes in personal behaviour and in environmental influences whose differential impact on the sexes has been demonstrated in epidemiological studies. Although we have avoided an explicit treatment of age by having recourse at the outset to standardization, certain of the results are apparently reflected in studies of age patterns of mortality. The joint occurrence in non-Western populations and Southern/Eastern populations of exceptionally high death rates from diarrhoeal disease may explain why the 'South' age-pattern, with it high death rates between ages one and five, is often the most accurate referent for use in Latin America and Asia. The fact that the list of populations with the least deviation cause structure is almost exclusively confined to members of the 'West' group of Coale and Demeny may account for the lack of persistent deviation in this group's age patterns. Finally, tbe increasing importance of cardio-vascular disease and neoplasms in cause-of-death structures for males but not females is probably associated with the changing age patterns of male mortality noted by Coale and Demeny.     

Assessing attitude toward same-sex marriage: scale development and validation

This paper reports the results of three studies conducted to develop, refine, and validate a scale which assessed heterosexual adults' attitudes toward same-sex marriage, the Attitude Toward Same-Sex Marriage Scale (ASSMS). The need for such a scale is evidenced in the increasing importance of same-sex marriage in the political arena of the United States and other nations, as well as the growing body of empirical research examining same-sex marriage and related issues (e.g., Lannutti, 2005; Solomon, Rothblum, & Balsam, 2004). The results demonstrate strong reliability, convergent validity, and predictive validity for the ASSMS and suggest that the ASSMS may be adapted to measure attitudes toward civil unions and other forms of relational recognition for same-sex couples. Gender comparisons using the validated scale showed that in college and non-college samples, women had a significantly more positive attitude toward same-sex marriage than did men.     

Does an effect of marriage duration on pre-transition fertility signal parity-dependent control? An empirical test in nineteenth-century Leuven,Belgium

It has been demonstrated for many pre-industrial populations that the age at marriage, or marriage duration, influences age-specific marital fertility but the reason for this remains unclear. Among the several mechanisms that may be responsible, the following are often cited: secondary sterility or increased subfecundity associated with parity; declining coital frequency; the age difference between the spouses; and, importantly, parity-dependent fertility control. If the latter mechanism were partly responsible for the marriage-duration effect in pre-transition populations, it would contradict the concept of the modern fertility transition as the evolution (or revolution) from parity-independent to parity-dependent fertility. The study presented in this paper investigates the relative importance of these alternative explanations. The application of multivariate Poisson regression to the fertility data from two birth cohorts in the Belgian city of Leuven shows that a linearly declining or even concave age-specific fertility pattern, disaggregated by age at marriage, does not imply parity-dependent fertility limitation.     

Polygyny and the rate of population growth

Summary The roots, motives and feasibility of practising polygyny in societies with a balanced sex structure and the effect of polygyny on the rate of population growth are considered. High demand for labour combined with limited supply over the last several centuries, had been conducive to the evolution of a polygynous nuptiality pattern. The unprecedentedly high rates of population growth during the last several decades combined with progressive economic development have led to a change in the role of the labour factor and consequently diminished its impact upon polygyny. Polygyny is feasible because of a sex-age differential at first marriage, which enables younger cohorts of women to enter the marriage market, and thus results in a very early age at first marriage and universal incidence of marriage among women. A very young pattern of nuptiality inevitably evolves under polygyny, which tends to raise the rate of population growth. No significant variation in fertility between polygynous and monogamous women was found but substantial gaps in standards of living, child mortality, and educational attainment were noted for polygynous households. The findings imply that during the transition from polygyny to monogamy family size will tend to diminish, although initially fertility may not decline concurrently with changing socio-economic status. The most important effects on the rate of population growth thus result from the increase in age at first marriage and declining proportions of ever married women.     

Spatial inequalities in Western cities: A comparison of North American and German urban areas

Since metropolitan areas in North America and Western Europe reflect similar social and economic divisions in society; similar degrees of spatial inequality for social and housing indicators are expected. This proposition was tested for seven cities (four in West Germany, two in the United States and one in Canada) for 1960–61 and 1970–71. Eight of the nine social indicators showed approximately equal inequality scores, once scale differences are controlled. Minority groups in American cities were significantly more spatially concentrated than those in German or Canadian cities. Areas of multiple housing deprivation were more clearly defined in American cities and the populations living in these areas were predominantly minority, old, renters and welfare recipients, a sharp contrast to deprived areas in cities in the other two nations. The German urban social mosaic is becoming more ‘Americanized’ as postwar housing shortages give way to increased homeownership, suburbanization and greater social class segregation.     

Marriage patterns and fertility of the world population]

Marriage patterns of the world population may be divided into two major categories; i.e., the traditional marriage pattern, and the European marriage pattern. Characteristics of the traditional marriage pattern are: early marriage, a high percentage of married people, and a low percentage of people who remain single during their lifetime. Characteristics of the European marriage pattern include: late marriage and a higher percentage of females who do not marry in their lifetime. In most parts of Asia and Africa and some Latin American countries, the traditional marriage pattern is dominant, and the birth rate in these countries has remained very high. Most countries in Europe show the characteristics of the European marriage pattern, and the fertility rate in these countries is comparatively low. Some other countries, such as Sri Lanka, are in a process of transformation in their marriage pattern, and their fertility level also shows a transition from a high fertility rate to a lower fertility rate. There is a close relationship between marriage patterns and the level of fertility.     

Assessing Attitude Toward Same-Sex Marriage

Abstract

This paper reports the results of three studies conducted to develop, refine, and validate a scale which assessed heterosexual adults' attitudes toward same-sex marriage, the Attitude Toward Same-Sex Marriage Scale (ASSMS). The need for such a scale is evidenced in the increasing importance of same-sex marriage in the political arena of the United States and other nations, as well as the growing body of empirical research examining same-sex marriage and related issues (e.g., Lannutti, 2005; Solomon, Rothblum, & Balsam, 2004). The results demonstrate strong reliability, convergent validity, and predictive validity for the ASSMS and suggest that the ASSMS may be adapted to measure attitudes toward civil unions and other forms of relational recognition for same-sex couples. Gender comparisons using the validated scale showed that in college and non-college samples, women had a significantly more positive attitude toward same-sex marriage than did men.     

Subjective Well-being and Partnership Dynamics: Are Same-Sex Relationships Different?

We analyze Dutch panel data to investigate whether partnership has a causal effect on subjective well-being. As in previous studies, we find that, on average, being in a partnership improves well-being. Well-being gains of marriage are larger than those of cohabitation. The well-being effects of partnership formation and disruption are symmetric. We also find that marriage improves well-being for both younger and older cohorts, whereas cohabitation benefits only the younger cohort. Our main contribution to the literature is on well-being effects of same-sex partnerships. We find that these effects are homogeneous to sexual orientation. Gender differences exist in the well-being effects of same-sex partnerships: females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on males.