A preliminary analysis of the high birth rate in India]

The author first provides some basic demographic data for India and points out that the current annual rate of population growth of 2.45 percent is slightly higher than the annual increase in food production. Problems in the areas of employment, education, housing, and transportation, as well as the general problem of poverty, are seen as a consequence of this imbalance. The lack of success of the national family planning program is attributed primarily to the failure to achieve a satisfactory rate of economic growth. Contributory factors include early marriage, the low status of women, the desire for large families, and administrative problems associated with the family planning program.     

A note on the rate of intergenerational convergence of earnings

We show that “convergence” to mean earnings in intergenerational earnings mobility models will be a function not only of the single-generation correlation of earnings, but also of the properties of the unobserved stochastic distribution of shocks to earnings. Received: 24 March 1998/Accepted: 13 November 1998     

A study on the effectiveness of sterilizations in reducing the birth rate

This study analyzed 1,081 women in Kerala State (India) who were either sterilized or were the wives of sterilized men, and by examining the fertility among a comparable group of 1,000 other women, estimated the number of prevented future births per 1,000 women in the sterilized group. The results of this estimation were then applied to project what the entire savings in births might be over a 3D-year period in the entire Kerala population if each year there were one, three, or five sterilizations performed per 1,000 of total population. The results failed to confirm the hope that the crude birth rate would be decreased by 12 per 1,000 in a decade merely by sterilization of five per 1,000 of the population per annum. The study also discusses various measures of reduction in the crude birth rate. By a reasonable measure, the reduction in the crude birth rate for Kerala from such a sterilization program is estimated as seven points after a decade or nine points after three decades, reflecting decreases of 21 and 36 per cent, respectively, in the number of births.     

Indirect evidence of the contribution of prenatal sex selection practices to the high sex ratio at birth in Vietnam

This paper reports indirect evidence that prenatal sex selection is a contributor to the recent increase in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam. The paper uses birth data from the Population Change Survey 2006 to assess the associations between sex ratio at birth and variables that predict increased opportunities to practise prenatal sex selection, including maternal knowledge of foetal sex before birth, the use of ultrasound for foetal sex determination, the gestation week when foetal sex was disclosed, and access to abortion services. The high sex ratio of most recent births was significantly associated with the use of ultrasound to determine the foetal sex in gestation weeks 12–22 and with access to family planning services that provide abortion. Prenatal sex selection in health facilities are likely to contribute to the recent increase in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam.     

Genital tract tears in women giving birth on a birth seat: A cohort study with prospectively collected data

BackgroundBirth positions may influence the risk of tears in the genital tract during birth. Birth positions are widely studied yet knowledge on genital tract tears following birth on a birth seat is inconclusive.AimThe objective of this study was to describe the proportion of genital tract tears in women who gave birth on a birth seat compared to women who did not.MethodAn observational cohort study based on birth information collected prospectively. In total 10 629 live, singleton, non-instrumental births in cephalic presentation were studied.ResultsFewer women who gave birth on a birth seat experienced an overall intact genital tract compared to women who gave birth in any other position. Women who gave birth on a birth seat were less likely to have an episiotomy performed. Women who gave birth vaginally on a birth seat after a previous caesarean section may have an increased risk for sustaining a sphincter tear.DiscussionIt is important to be aware of the decreased chance of an overall intact genital tract area when giving birth on a birth seat. Furthermore, there is a possibly increased risk of sphincter tear in women having a vaginal birth after caesarean. It is required and of importance to provide pregnant women with evidence-based information on factors associated with genital tract tears including birth positions.     

Fertility change in five Latin American countries: A covariance analysis of birth intervals

This paper analyzes patterns of childbearing throughout the reproductive career of Latin American women, using a hazards model of birth interval life tables. Data come from five fertility surveys of the World Fertility Survey Programme. The analysis, within each country and across time, assesses how demographic factors of reproduction influence the fertility history of women throughout their reproductive lives.     

Effect of declines in mortality on the birth rate and related measures

In December 1961, the government of the Republic of Korea adopted a programme of family planning as part of its public health services. In 1962 a pilot research project was begun, under university auspices, with the object of demonstrating and assessing what can be achieved through intensive family planning education and services. Wondang Myun near Seoul, with a rural population of 9,000 in seven villages, was chosen for the study. A baseline survey covering attitudes and practices related to family planning was made of the population under study, as well as of a similar population in the control area of Kimpo Myun. This report outlines the design, the programme of education and services, and some of the preliminary results of the study. After eighteen months of the programme, acceptance of birth control measures increased fourfold among the married women in the fertile age range. Acceptance was highest among the 25–39 age group, and among high-parity women. Economic considerations were foremost among the reasons given for adopting family planning. Among the traditional methods offered, the condom was the favoured method of choice, indicating that husbands were taking the initiative in contraceptive practice. A decline in the crude birth index was observed; whether the decline was due more to contraceptive practice or to abortion, at least an increase is reflected in the effective desire for family limitation. The high failure rate among Users should be investigated further. Continued effort is needed to provide more information and detailed instruction to users, and to develop social circumstances that support the practice of family planning. Along with an effort to achieve more effective use of traditional methods, other methods, including intra-uterine devices, deserve trial.     

A note on mortality in Jamaica

This article analyses briefly various aspects of mortality in Jamaica. After an appraisal of available vital statistics, the mortality trend, as revealed in several measures, is traced and brief comparison with other West Indian colonies made. A discussion of the marked differential between legitimate and illegitimate infant mortality leads to the conclusion that the higher rate of the latter is associated with lower socio-economic status of the parents. Mortality from a few causes of death is also analysed and the possibility of improvement stressed. The probable consequences of declining mortality are illustrated by examining the probable growth of the population to 1951 in three broad age groups.     

A note on differential fertility in Sri Lanka

In this paper an attempt has been made to study differential fertility by urban-rural and regional classifications, using data obtained from complete tabulations of the 1963 Census of Population, the four rounds of the Socio-Economic Survey conducted from November 1969 to October 1970, and the Registrar General's Department. The analysis of current fertility indicates that the traditional pattern of lower urban fertility relative to rural held true in both 1963 and 1970 and also shows a narrowing of the differentials. The country was divided into four zones on an agro-climatic basis for regional analysis. A consistent ranking of the zones in relation to current fertility emerges in both 1963 and 1970. Changing patterns of age-specific fertility and age-specific marital fertility are discussed. Data on average size of family by urban-rural and regional classifications are also analyzed. An attempt has also been made to identify some of the possible causes for the differentials observed.     

A note on occupation statistics in British censuses

The census occupation statistics are the most complete source of information on the employment of the population during the past century. The Official Guide to the Census Reports¹ traces the development of the occupation inquiries and gives details of the major classification changes (pp. 27-43). These changes are considered in relation to each census year, but little attempt has been made to examine their effect on the comparability of the data. In addition, certain points which are of interest to research workers in this field have been omitted from the Guide.     

A log-logistic regression model for a transition rate with a starting threshold

The paper presents a new type of parametric transition rate model that is particularly suitable for studying household and union formation. In such studies, it is often not easy to determine the moment at which individuals actually enter the population at risk - or at least when the risk begins to become socially important. Even in the presence of regulations stipulated by law, one might be interested in studying ‘social’ timetables. We assume that there is a constant rate for any duration and that after a certain threshold point a log-logistic rate is added, with this threshold as its time origin. This can be justified in a behavioural sense by assuming that random and social transitions arise from separate processes. We then apply the model to union formation in Italy and show how threshold and intensity effects generated by theoretical hypotheses can be revealed.     

A note on some vital statistics of a primitive peasant community in Sierra Leone

In the course of some work in which a community of 1400 primitive Sierra Leone peasants were being re-examined at two-monthly intervals over a period of a year opportunity was taken to record births, deaths and pregnancies. A birth-rate of 32·9 (P.E. ± 3·27), and a death-rate of 38·4 (P.E. ± 3·52) per thousand per annum were obtained. The infant mortality rate was found to be 417 (P.E. · 48) per thousand live births, and the ratio of miscarriages and stillbirths to live births to be 22·9: 100. Since the community was small the figures are subject to a high statistical error, but they are offered because the data are believed to be accurate, and accurate vital statistics of primitive West African communities are practically non-existent.

The most interesting features in regard to deaths were that deaths in children aged 3 years or under accounted for almost half the total deaths at all ages, and that of these deaths in young children 38·5 % were attributed to an acute febrile illness.     

Some problems in determining the number of acceptors needed in a family planning programme to achieve a specified reduction in the birth rate

Abstract The paper attempts to revive professional interest in a problem originally considered by Lee and Isbister and which has assumed added importance recently because of the increasing number of national family planning programmes that are being instituted, which require the determination of the number of acceptors needed in a family planning programme in order to achieve a specified reduction in the birth rate. The publication of subsequent papers on births averted by programmes, notably by Potter and Wolfers, each of whom had made some criticisms of the paper by Lee and Isbister, has tended to obscure the differences in the nature between the problem raised by Lee and Isbister, and that discussedby Potter or Wolfers. The paper tries to bring out these differences and points out one of the limitations of the estimates of births averted obtained by using either Potter's or Wolfers's methods, viz. the inability to determine the time period to which the birth reduction refers, thereby further complicating the issues involved in assessing the social and economic implications of births averted by a family planning programme. The paper also points out some of the unrecognizedtechnical considerations which arise in dealingwith the 'target-setting' problem raised by Lee and Isbister and suggeststhat stochasticmodel studies might offera clue for evolving practical methods for tackling this problem.     

A note on the score reliability for the Satisfaction With Life Scale: an RG study

The purpose of the present study was to meta-analytically investigate the score reliability for the Satisfaction With Life Scale. Four-hundred and sixteen articles using the measure were located through electronic database searches and then separated to identify studies which had calculated reliability estimates from their own data. Sixty-two articles met this criterion, providing 76 reliability coefficients. The articles comprising the sample were next coded to identify potential sample or test characteristics that might affect the variation in reliability estimates. Results indicate that score standard deviation, mean, percent female, US samples, English test version, and youth samples demonstrated significant relationships with score reliability. Results from this study provide useful information, in terms of scale performance, for researchers interested in using the measure for future academic endeavors.

A note on suicide in Russia, 1965–1993

Recently, theCentre for Demography and Human Ecology in Moscow in collaboration with theInstitut National d’études Démographiques in Paris undertook a reconstruction of registered deaths in individual republics of the former Soviet Union. The first set of such data, tabulated by sex, age and cause of death, covers the deaths registered in Russia between 1965 and 1993. The present article extracts from the data set information on registered suicide mortality and reviews its trends and age and sex patterns. The link between alcoholism and suicide is strongly suggested.     

A note on the use ofregression methods in population estimates

Evidence which has emerged in the past few years indicates that the relative accuracy of population estimates derived from the ratio-correlation method and the difference-correlation method varies from state to state. In assessing the possible reasons why neither technique is uniformly more accurate, attention is focused on the temporal instability of the statistical relationships between symptomatic indicators and population change. The author concludes that further improvement in population estimates based on regression techniques is likely to be limited until demographers derive means of measuring and adjusting for these temporal changes.     

The cost of vaginal birth at home,in a birth centre or in a hospital setting in New South Wales: A micro-costing study

BackgroundWomen want greater choice of place of birth in New South Wales, Australia. It is perceived to be more costly to health services for women with a healthy pregnancy to give birth at home or in a birth centre. It is not known how much it costs the health service to provide care for women planning to give birth in these settings.AimThe aim of this study was to determine the direct cost of giving birth vaginally at home, in a birth centre or in a hospital for women at low risk of complications, in New South Wales.MethodsA micro-costing design was used. Observational (time and motion) and resource use data collection was undertaken to identify the staff time and resources required to provide care in a public hospital, birth centre or at home for women with a healthy pregnancy.FindingsThe median cost of providing care for women who plan to give birth at home, in a birth centre and in a hospital were similar (AUD $2150.07, $2100.59 and $2097.30 respectively). Midwifery time was the largest contributor to the cost of birth at home, and overhead costs accounted for over half of the total cost of BC and hospital birth. The cost of consumables was low in all three settings.ConclusionIn this study, we have found there is little difference in the cost to the health service when a woman has an uncomplicated vaginal birth at home, in a birth centre or in a hospital setting.