Research Note: Babies Born After Census Day: How the Census Bureau Addressed Dates of Birth After Census Day in the 2010 Census

The fundamental purpose of the decennial Census is an enumeration of the U.S. population at a particular “Census moment” for the purpose of apportionment. The “Census moment” for the 2010 Census occurred at 11:59 p.m. on April 1, 2010. This means that, ideally, all persons alive and living in the United States at that moment are included in the Census count, while any person not alive at that moment is excluded. In reality, this goal is challenging to achieve. Since the actual date of data collection often varies widely, it is possible that individuals are included, or excluded, in the count due to this discrepancy between the Census Day and the date of data collection. In this paper, I explore how the Census Bureau addresses this issue specifically when dates of birth after Census Day are encountered. First, I describe the three methods of data collection (Self-administered questionnaires, enumerator-administered questionnaires, and Telephone Questionnaire Assistance/Coverage Follow-Up operator-administered questionnaires), and how dates of birth after Census Day are addressed in each of these methods. Next, I explore related findings from the 2010 Census, including how many dates of birth after Census Day were found in the 2010 Census data, how they were processed according to data collection method, and how this impacted the final Census count. Finally, I discuss the performance of the new procedures related to dates of birth after Census Day that were implemented in the 2010 Census, along with implications for moving forward into future Censuses.     

Not your lucky day: romantically and numerically special wedding date divorce risks

Characteristics of couples on or about their wedding day and characteristics of weddings have been shown to predict marital outcomes. Little is known, however, about how the dates of the weddings correlate with marriage durability. Using Dutch marriage and divorce registries from 1999 to 2013, this study compares the durations of marriages that began on unusually popular wedding dates with marriages on ordinary dates. We identify several distinct types of popular dates, including Valentine’s Day and numerically special days (dates with the same or sequential number values, e.g., 9.9.99, 1.2.03), showing that on an adjusted basis, the incidence of weddings on such dates was 137–509% higher than ordinary dates. The hazard odds of divorce for these special-date weddings were 18–36% higher than ordinary-date weddings. Sorting on couples’ observable characteristics accounts for some of the higher divorce risks, but even after controlling for these characteristics, special-date weddings were more vulnerable, with 10–17% higher divorce odds compared to ordinary dates. These relationships are even stronger for couples who have not married before.     

Review of the Day Reconstruction Method (DRM)

The Day Reconstruction Method (DRM) for assessing daily experience and subjective well-being is reviewed. The DRM is a promising method as it assesses feelings within situations and activities, and therefore goes beyond asking who is happy to asking when they are happy. The technique might be less burdensome on respondents than experience-sampling, and might reduce memory biases that are inherent in global recall of feelings. However, evidence for the validity and reliability of the DRM is limited and is not entirely supportive. Research is needed on the psychometrics of the DRM, for example by comparing it to mobile phone assessments and other forms of experience-sampling, as well as to global reports of feelings in situations. Conceptual issues with computing overall subjective well-being by weighting a respondent’s activity scores by the time spent in them are discussed. Despite the promises of the DRM, the many unresolved issues with it and the alternative of using on-line electronic experience-sampling techniques suggest that more research is needed before the value of the DRM is established.     

The uncertain timing of reaching 8 billion, peak world population, and other demographic milestones

We present new probabilistic forecasts of the timing of the world's population reaching 8 billion, the world's peak population, and the date at which one-third or more of the world's population would be 60+ years old. The timing of these milestones, as well as the timing of the Day of 7 Billion, is uncertain. We compute that the 60 percent prediction interval for the Day of 8 Billion is between 2024 and 2033. Our figures show that there is around a 60 percent chance that one-third of the world's population would be 60+ years old in 2100. In the UN 2010 medium variant, that proportion never reaches one-third. As in our past forecasts (Lutz et al. 2001, 2008), we find the chance that the world's population will peak in this century to be around 84 percent and the timing of that peak to be highly uncertain. Focal days, like the Day of 7 Billion, play a role in raising public awareness of population issues, but they give a false sense of the certainty of our knowledge. The uncertainty of the timing of demographic milestones is not a constant of nature. Understanding the true extent of our demographic uncertainty can help motivate governments and other agencies to make the investments necessary to reduce it.     

The Role of Wilderness Protection and Societal Engagement as Indicators of Well-Being: An Examination of Change at the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness

A societal decision to protect over 9 million acres of land and water for its wilderness character in the early 1960s reflected US wealth in natural resources, pride in the nation’s cultural history and our commitment to the well-being of future generations to both experience wild nature and enjoy benefits flowing from these natural ecosystems. There is no question that our relationship with wilderness has changed. Individually it is probably quite easy to examine differences in the role wilderness plays in the quality of our lives today compared to some previous time. But how the role of wilderness protection has changed for society is more difficult to describe. In only a few places do we have data across multiple decades that would allow us to even examine how users or their use may have changed over time. At the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in northern Minnesota we are fortunate to have multiple studies that can give us some 40 years of insight into how some aspects of use have changed there. For example, an analysis of results of visitor studies at the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in 1969, 1991 and 2007 reveal some big differences in who is out there today, most notably the presence of a much older, more experienced and better educated user population, almost exclusively white and predominantly male. It is time to decide whether the best thing for wilderness and or society is to try to restore historic patterns of use (to include younger people, the less wealthy and lower educated) in greater numbers, to try to identify new markets within growing underrepresented populations, or adapt our perception of wilderness stewardship to better include planning for emerging social values of a new generation with other indicators of well-being. A growing population with greater dependence on ecosystem services provided by protected nature could lead to wilderness protection becoming an important quantitative and qualitative element of quality of life indices in the very near future.     

Political Democracy and the Physical Quality of Life: The Cross-National Evidence

Why do some countries have a high quality of life? One important explanation is that political democracy fosters life quality. Proponents of this perspective argue that political democracy acts to center the public agenda on state actions that enhance life quality. The cross-national effects of democracy (and several alternative variables) on the physical quality of life were examined for 87 countries at three points in time: 1970, 1980, and 1990. Results indicate the existence of a strong positive relationship between democracy and life quality for all three time periods.

     

缺席的在场：失独者生活境况的家庭时空分析与关系性变革

去世的独生子女对于其父母,是一种＂缺席的在场＂,虽然已脱离了其父母、家庭的时间进化过程和生活生产空间,但仍然会以一种特殊的在场方式,影响其父母的行为与行动。基于10户失独者的深度访谈资料,通过构建家庭时空分析的视角,在时间与空间的双维,分析失独者的时间安排与空间生产策略。并于家庭时空之中探讨独子死亡后的家庭链条关系性变革,在此基础上提出对策建议。     

Precision,bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models

Many researchers have used time series models to construct population forecasts and prediction intervals at the national level, but few have evaluated the accuracy of their forecasts or the out-of-sample validity of their prediction intervals. Fewer still have developed models for subnational areas. In this study, we develop and evaluate six ARIMA time series models for states in the United States. Using annual population estimates from 1900 to 2000 and a variety of launch years, base periods, and forecast horizons, we construct population forecasts for four states chosen to reflect a range of population size and growth rate characteristics. We compare these forecasts with population counts for the corresponding years and find precision, bias, and the width of prediction intervals to vary by state, launch year, model specification, base period, and forecast horizon. Furthermore, we find that prediction intervals based on some ARIMA models provide relatively accurate forecasts of the distribution of future population counts but prediction intervals based on other models do not. We conclude that there is some basis for optimism regarding the possibility that ARIMA models might be able to produce realistic prediction intervals to accompany population forecasts, but a great deal of work remains to be done before we can draw any firm conclusions.     

Asia's population and development in retrospect and prospect

By 1989 Asia's population will reach 3 billion. That Asia's countries can change the course of population development has been shown by China, whose population growth rate has decreased to 1.2%. 58% of the world's population in 1985 was Asian, and 53% of it was concentrated in 11 Asian countries, of which 37.6% was accounted for by India and China. Asia's population density is 3 times the world average, and the number of persons sustained by a square kilometer of land in Asia is 2.5 times the world average. Asia's population is young (median age 20.3), which means a high dependency burden, a large number of women of childbearing age, and low quality of life, as measured by infant mortality, life expectancy, and literacy. Rapid population growth ensures a low rate of development. Asia's goals are to achieve a 1% growth rate by year 2000, zero population growth and replacement level by 2015 for East Asia and 2020 for South Asia. The World Bank estimates that Asia's population will not stabilize until the end of the 21st century, by which time it will have reached 6 billion. Asia must find a way of achieving both population control and economic development. 5 recommendations are made to the Asian Forum of Parliamentarians on Population and Development (AFPPD): 1) that the AFPPD sponsor the activities of "the Day of 3 billion"; 2) that seminars and conferences on population be held among Asian nations; 3) that high-fertility countries adopt late marriages, few births, and programs for maternal and child health; 4) that organizations for family planning be strengthened and given the resources to upgrade the status of women; and 5) that international cooperation in the area of population be intensified.     

Context Effects as an Illustration of Response Uncertainty –A Cautionary Tale

Many years of experience make it difficult to believe that survey answers are mostly unambiguous. For example, by going through accessible studies, a lot of problems concerning memory can be identified in the field of living conditions and in other domains. Consequently, it may be claimed that facts are seldom stored in an easily accessible manner. It is probably not the case that people – when answering questions – respond promptly and automatically. Rather, some sort of thinking activity is initiated. Accordingly, the answers may be dependent on the occasion when the questions are asked, which background information is given, how familiar the respondents are with the phenomenon in question, how much time there is for reflection, and so on. We have had the opportunity to compare answers to the same questions asked in different contexts. The results clearly indicate the existence of context effects. At the same time, the results give some clues to how these effects can be interpreted, and even avoided. Problems may be minimized if questions are more precisely formulated, if their focus is on strictly limited aspects, and if they are only about things to which people have devoted a lot of interest and thought.     

Reliability of reasons for early termination of breastfeeding: application of a bivariate probability model with sample selection to data from surveys in Malaysia in 1976-77 and 1988-89

Although extensively collected, data on people's reasons for their behaviour provided retrospectively have been met with some scepticism on the grounds that they may be subject to biases and errors that jeopardize their usefulness. This study investigates, for a sample of 1,327 births, the reliability with which women in Peninsular Malaysia recalled, at intervals 12 years apart, reasons for not initiating or for stopping breastfeeding less than 3 months after a birth. Overall, we find low to moderate reliability of recall. Levels of reliability are relatively high for some reasons (the child died and no or insufficient milk) but low for some others (child ill, breastfeeding inconvenient). Results from selection models show that reliability does not vary with the length of time since the child's birth but is inversely related to socio-economic status (proxied by education and employment). Social status, social norms, and health-related factors appear to be significant influences on women's consistency of reporting.     

中国农业非剩余劳动力转移决策机制及其对农业的影响

中国现阶段的乡—城迁移背景是,宏观上农业剩余劳动力问题严重的格局并没有改变,但由于超稳定的、超小规模均田制的作用,乡—城迁移者不仅包括农业剩余劳动力,也包括非农业剩余劳动力;结果,在许多农村地区出现了劳动力过剩与劳动力供给不足并存,或耕地资源短缺与耕地资源利用不足甚至闲置并存的矛盾。该两个问题的解决都将取决于中国是否能够在现阶段形成与快速城市化及国际化相适应的土地资源再配置机制,能否实现乡—城迁移条件下的富余耕地资源向种田专业户集中。     

Exploring Homophobia in Tbilisi,Georgia

The purpose of this study is to determine statistical predictors of homophobic attitudes among the residents of Tbilisi, Georgia. We analyze 2013 survey data from a representative sample of the Tbilisi adult population. Residents were asked about their attitudes, beliefs, and political and social values in the context of the May 17, 2013 attack on LGBT activists on the International Day Against Homophobia and Transphobia (IDAHOT). Findings show that homophobia is significantly predicted by male gender, lower levels of education, acceptance of social inequality, nonliberal attitudes, and perceiving homosexuals as a “threat to national security.” However, psychological perceptions and personal experiences also indirectly influence homophobic attitudes: the findings suggest that males report homophobic attitudes more often than females do and tend to be even more homophobic when they believe that homosexuality is inborn rather than acquired. The study also found that people without liberal attitudes tend to be more homophobic when they have personal contacts with homosexuals. This article highlights the need for a more comprehensive approach to education and the promotion of liberal values as well as legal equality for LGBTQ individuals to decrease the level of homophobia in Georgian society and, specifically, in Tbilisi.     

A modification of a continuous time model for first conception

The interval between marriage and the first conception leading to a live birth plays an important role in the determination of fertility components. Several probability models (Potter and Parker, 1964; Singh, 1961, 1964, 1967) based on varying sets of assumptions relating to this interval have been propounded in the recent past. All of them are based on the assumption that the females under study are susceptible to conception at the time of marriage. However, in certain situations, where some of the females already pregnant at the time of marriage report to have conceived within a short interval following marriage, this condition is not satisfied and these models become unsuitable. A probability distribution which is an inflated form of the continuous model proposed by Singh, for the time of the first conception leading to a live birth, is presented in this paper. It describes reasonably well the data on first conception times in the context of premarital conceptions. Simple expressions for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters involved in the model are obtained and a method for finding the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimators is outlined. The model is applied to four sets of data.     

Welfare benefits and birth decisions of never-married women

For some time now, the out-of-wedlock birthrate has been increasing rapidly in the United States. This has prompted several states to propose (and in some cases, enact) legislation to deny access to higher AFDC benefits for families in which the mother gives birth while receiving AFDC. The authors investigate whether AFDC benefit levels are systematically related to the family-size decisions of never-married women. Using a bivariate probit model with state and time fixed effects, applied to Current Population Survey data for the years 1980–1988, it is found that the basic benefit level for a family of two (one adult and one child) and the incremental benefit for a second child positively affects the family size decisions of black and Hispanic women, but not of white women. The effects are concentrated among high school dropouts (no effects are found for high school graduates). The authors conclude that rather than to uniformly deny benefits to all AFDC women that bear children, a better targeted policy might be to alter the AFDC benefit structure in such a way as to encourage single mothers to complete high school. However, being a high school dropout might be a proxy for some other underlying characteristic of the woman, and encouraging women to complete high school who otherwise would not might have no effect whatsoever on nonmarital births.     

Legal Protections and Advocacy for Contingent or “Casual” Workers in the United States: A Case Study in Day Labor

Contingent, non-standard or “casual” work is present in large numbers in virtually every sector of the United States economy. Staffing strategies that use subcontracted or contingent work – strategies that once characterized only some low-wage workers such as garment and agriculture – have now spread to virtually every area of industry, including high tech and finance. United States law is a patchwork of provisions in separate federal statutes – and sometimes in each of the 50 states – governing whether a particular individual is an “employee.” Day laborers in the United States have particular challenging enforcing their limited rights. To address the issues of vulnerable low-wage workers being locked out of labor protections, activists have developed a number of strategies, including litigation and legislative campaigns. These strategies have more recently been broadened to facilitate developing leadership in a new social movement. In this article I draw a portrait of the day labor workforce from city- and state-based surveys of day laborers themselves. I then discuss strategies employed by day laborers to advance their workplace rights.

Husbands' and wives' relative influence on fertility decisions and outcomes

This research was supported by NICHD Center for Population Research Contract No. HD52807 and Research Scientist Development Award No. AA00002 from NIAAA to the author. The important contributions of Philip Bardsley to this research and to earlier drafts of this paper are gratefully acknowledged. Thanks are also due to Tom Day and Linda Moody Chilingar for their data analytic and statistical skills and to Cathey Heron for her assistance throughout the course of this project.When couples were in conflict about short-term fertility, wives had the same or somewhat greater influence over actual outcomes than did husbands, especially when the wife was the one who did not desire a child. Antecedent wife demographic, attitudinal and couple interactional variables had more influence on short-term fertility decisions made than did antecedent husband variables. However, inclusion of husband data as well as wife data increased discrimination between those deciding to have or not have a child.     

When Twenty-Four Hours is not Enough: Time Poverty of Working Parents

Individuals can be money poor, time poor or both. While income is the most used indicator of poverty, broader indexes including non-monetary aspects of deprivation have been proposed and measured. As one such measure, our study focuses on the element of deprivation arising from the time deficit of many working people. The usual poverty threshold is calculated as the amount of income to buy the minimum required goods and services from the market. This minimum required purchase is greater for these people since they have less time than the average person to produce some goods and services for themselves at home. So, they need money to buy these in the market in order to maintain the same consumption. The income standard must be supplemented to adequately measure actual poverty. Time use data make it possible to establish time requirements and time availability and provide a measure of time poverty. Using Canadian GSS 1998 data, and building on the work of Vickery (1977, ‚The time poor: A new look at poverty’, The Journal of Human Resources 12(1), pp. 27-48) and of Douthitt (1993, ‚The inclusion of time availability in Canadian poverty measures’, Time-Use Methodology: Toward Consensus (ISTAT, Roma), pp. 83–91), and our own previous study, we estimate time-adjusted poverty thresholds and rates for single and dual parent Canadian families. As expected, we have found high incidence of time deficit among the employed single parents with children. We make a case for the acceptance of a redefined poverty standard for such time-deprived groups.     

Changes in motivation for parenthood among young married couples

The perceived satisfactions, costs, and overall motivation associated with having a first or second child was assessed at two time points for 507 married couples. Motivation associated with parenthood varied systematically over time and was influenced by attainment of cultural fertility norms and the impact of a birth. Among those who experienced a birth between Times 1 and 2, couples who already had a child showed a much greater drop in motivation for a future child than did initially childless couples. Husbands perceived lower costs associated with an additional child than did wives.This research was supported by NICHD Center for Population Research Contract No. HD 52807 and Research Scientist Development Award No. AA00002 from NIAAA to the author. The important contributions of Philip Bardsley to this research and to earlier drafts of this paper are gratefully acknowledged. Thanks are also due to Tom Day and Linda Moody Chilingar for their data analytic and statistical skills and to Cathey Heron for her assistance throughout the course of this project.     

The demography of American Indian families

This paper uses data from the decennial censuses to examine family structure and changes in family structure over time among American Indians. The information about the national Indian population indicates that the trends in family structure among American Indians are parallel in many respects to those in the general US population. That is, the percentage of young American Indian women who have never married has increased over time, the percentage of American Indian women who are divorced has increased over time, and the percentage of American Indian children who reside with a single parent has increased as well. The percentage of American Indian women who have never married and who are divorced and the percentage of American Indian children who live with a single parent are higher than those among the general population. The incidence of children living with single parents is especially high on some reservations which also have high levels of poverty and unemployment. Family patterns, however, vary considerably across reservations in ways that are not easily explained by differences in other demographic characteristics. These variations may be due to cultural and historical differences that are not captured in data collected in the censuses.