New sources on the demographic history of the Southern Andes (sixteenth to eighteenth centuries)

The author describes and evaluates some little-known sources of data on the Southern Andes for the period from the sixteenth to the eighteenth century.     

Economic swings and demographic changes in the history of Latin America

In this paper we study the effects of short-term fluctuations in indicators of economic well-being on selected demographic response such as births, marriages and deaths at age intervals in eleven Latin American countries between 1910 and 1990. We use conventional distributed lag models to assess the magnitude and direction of effects and test a variety of hypotheses some of which have been posed to hold in Western Europe and others that are more specific and tailored to the Latin American context. We also compare the magnitude and direction of effects obtained among these countries with those obtained for pre-industrial Europe and uncover the existence of broadly similar patterns.     

'Between one and three million': towards the demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (1970-79)

Estimates of mortality in Camabodia during the Khmer Rouge regime (1975-79) range from 20,000 deaths according to former Khmer Rouge sources, to over three million victims according to Vietnamese government sources. This paper uses an unusual data source - the 1992 electoral lists registered by the United Nations - to estimate the population size after the Khmer Rouge regime and the extent of "excess" mortality in the 1970s. These data also provide the first breakdown of population by single year of age, which allows analysis of the age structure of "excess" mortality and inference of the relative importance of violence as a cause of death in that period. The estimates derived here are more comparable with the higher estimates made in the past. In addition, the analysis of likely causes of death that could have generated the age pattern of "excess" mortality clearly shows a larger contribution of direct or violent mortality than has been previously recognized.     

Growth and inequality: a demographic explanation

This paper investigates the relationship between growth and inequality from a demographic point of view. In an extended model of the accidental bequest with endogenous fertility, we analyze the effects of a decrease in old-age mortality rate on the equilibrium growth rate as well as on the income distribution. We show that the relationship between growth and inequality is at first positive and then may be negative in the process of population aging. The results are consistent with the empirical evidence in some developed countries.

Starting,stopping, and spacing during the early stages of fertility transition: The experience of German village populations in the 18th and 19th centuries

Examination of the reproductive histories of a sample of German married couples during the 18th and 19th centuries provides insights into behavioral changes involved in the shift from natural fertility to deliberate marital fertility control. A simple accounting scheme is used to assess the relative contributions of starting, spacing, and stopping to changes in family size during the initial phases of the fertility transition. The results suggest that in rural Germany, attempts to terminate childbearing prior to the end of the reproductive span were far more important in initiating the onset of fertility transition than efforts to deliberately prolong intervals between births or changes in the timing of the start of childbearing.     

The demographic effects of a contraceptive programme

Abstract The calculation of the number of births prevented for each item of contraceptive service provided entails the integration of a variety of factors relating to the potential fertility of users and the duration and effectiveness of use. This article differs from previous essays of this kind in that estimates of future potential fertility are based not on fertility rates but on age-specific means of inter-live birth intervals, modified by periods of use overlapping post-partum sterility, and by the probabilities attached to the development of permanent sterility and to the successful adoption of extra-programme birth control. In the first three years after acceptance of intra-uterine contraception by some 9,000 postpartum women of several ethnic origins in Singapore, it is calculated that about 4,800 births were prevented.     

Investigating demographic processes using innovative combinations of remotely sensed and demographic data

Population and Environment -     

Implementation of a demographic and contraceptive surveillance system in four counties in north China

This paper details efforts to implement a demographic and contraceptive surveillance system in four counties in North China. These counties are taking part in a large-scale field experiment involving the introduction of new contraceptives, greater choice in the use of contraceptives, and better training of family planning personnel. To evaluate the impact of these changes, a system of detailed, individual-level records are being kept in the 24 townships taking part in the project. We discuss the interaction between data collection and policy implementation - its general forms, its manifestations in modern China, and its relevance for the current project. We describe the system that we are implementing - what the old system looked like, and how we have tried to improve it. We evaluate the system's functioning over three years, based on field observations and preliminary data from one of the project's four counties. We conclude that there has been progress in the timely accumulation of standardized data; but there remains an antinomy whereby, past a point, an emphasis on data quality has the effect of sensitizing those responsible for recording data to the problematic nature of such data, thereby weakening accuracy. Many of the issues encountered in implementing the new system are relevant to the larger issues of (a) correct interpretation of data from China, and (b) creating a reasonable climate for change in the family planning system.     

Correction to: Investigating demographic processesusing innovative combinations of remotelysensed and demographic data

Population and Environment - The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. The name “Kluger” in the second paragraph should be changed to “Kugler”.     

Between a rock and a hard place: The evaluation of demographic forecasts

Forecasting, in general, has been described as an unavoidable yet impossible task. This irony, which comprises the ‘rock’ and the ‘hard place’ in the title, creates a high level of cognitive dissonance, which, in turn, generates stress for those both making and using forecasts that have non-trivial impacts. Why? Because the forecasted numbers that are invariably accorded a high degree of precision inexorably reveal their inevitable imprecision when the numbers forming the actuality finally take place and the numbers comprising the forecast's errors are precisely measured. The current state of the art in demography for dealing with the ‘rock’ and the ‘hard place’ is a less-than-successful strategy because it is based on an acceptance of accuracy as the primary evaluation criterion, which is the source of cognitive dissonance. One way to reduce cognitive dissonance is to change the relationship of the very cognitive elements creating it. We argue that forecast evaluations currently focused on accuracy and based on measures like RMSE and MAPE be refocused to include utility and propose for this purpose the ‘Proportionate Reduction in Error’ (PRE) measure. We illustrate our proposal with examples and discuss its advantages. We conclude that including PRE as an evaluation criterion can reduce stress by reducing cognitive dissonance without, at the same time, either trivializing the evaluation process or substantively altering how forecasts are done and presented.     

A problem of estimating a contingency table arising in demographic analysis

Abstract This note deals with a special problem of estimating a contingency table arising in demographic analysis. What we require are the estimates of the numbers of births and deaths in Malaya crossclassified by state and race for the years of the Japanese occcupation, 1942-45. For many reasons this period had an adverse effect on the Chinese and Indian Communities, and hence the two-fold result of a greater reduction in the number of births and a larger increase in the number of deaths in states with a smaller proportion of Malay population. The estimates are worked out by means of a technique which takes into consideration this actual demographic situation.     

AIDS and kitchen gardens: insights from a village in Western Kenya

In rural Africa, indigenous farming and natural resource management systems exemplified by kitchen gardens are being reshaped by the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its negative impacts (illness, stigma and mortality, and economic costs) and positive opportunities (organizational responses to the epidemic). Subtle changes in crops and farm techniques can be traced to these diverse influences of HIV+ infection, illness, mortality, widowhood, foster child care, and AIDS support groups, as well as the organizations, ideas, and flow of funding from outside. These findings draw on original field data: a village census, in-depth interviews with gardeners, and group discussions in a village in Bungoma District (in 2005 and 2007). This part of western Kenya is a typical small-farm zone that has faced a moderate HIV/AIDS epidemic since the 1990s, following decades of demographic, environmental, technological, and institutional changes. Implications of this case study for further research on HIV/AIDS and on micro-level population–environment change suggest that households are useful but imperfect analytical units and are best seen as part of complex social networks, shaping connections to markets. These important “mediating institutions” link AIDS as a demographic and economic force with environmental outcomes in cultivated landscapes.     

Sensitivity analysis in a multidimensional demographic projection model with a two-sex algorithm

"Formulas are derived for the effect that a slight change in the occurrence/exposure rate of the multidimensional projection model has on the elements of the population vector. The projection model classifies the population by sex, age, and marital status. The model includes a two-sex algorithm in order to ensure consistency between numbers of male and female marriages, number of divorces for the two sexes, and new widows (widowers) and deceased spouses. The sensitivity functions and elasticities are applied to data from the Netherlands for the period 1980-1984. The results indicate that marriage market mechanisms, in particular competition and substitution effects, are reasonably well modelled."     

Social and demographic determinants of abortion in Poland

Summary Most abortions in Polish hospitals and clinics are performed on social indications. In the 22 administrative areas of Poland, the high rates of divorce and large proportions of total population employed in non-agricultural pursuits reflect the individualistic approach to family planning which is characteristic of present-day urban society. Industrialization is disruptive to the normal functioning of the country's traditionally large families. In addition, the gross reproduction rate increases directly with the proportion of the peasant population in 17 voivodships and five large cities of Poland, whereas in the urban sector the gross reproduction rate has fallen below replacement level in the past few years. Rural birth rates will continue to decline. In view of increasing needs for future manpower, population policy aimed at increasing births through incentives to prospective mothers may achieve a limited degree of success in cities only among the educated segments of the female population.     

Size and structure of the household in England over three centuries

Abstract Data giving sizes and structures of households have been rare for any country before the institution of the official census, and have to be gleaned from surviving documents containing listings of inhabitants. This article, the first of two, describes the collection of listings of inhabitants of English communities which is being assembled by the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure and the methods by which the hundred most informative of them have been submitted to analysis. When ranged alongside the information on mean household size derived from the official British census since its inception in 1801, the results of this analysis suggest the following. 1. Mean household size in England and Wales as a whole was relatively constant at 4·75 or a little below for the whole period from the sixteenth century until 19II, and has only fallen since that date. The reduction of about one-third starting in 1921 may therefore be the first of considerable magnitude ever to occur: it seems to have been particularly rapid between 1911 and 1931. 2. Mean household size in England and Wales has been surprisingly resistant to demographic fluctuation on the one hand and to the structural influences of industrialization on the other, until the last fifty or sixty years. 3. The traditional household in England has never been extended on any definition, at least since the sixteenth century. Mean household size varied with social status, and a majority lived in households of six or more members. But this distribution was due to the very large numbers of servants living in and not to the presence of resident kin, who seem to have been rare. 4. The relationship between fertility, mortality and mean household size is different from what has been supposed. This article ends by registering the paradox that proportion of children in a pre-industrial English community apparently seems to be negatively, not positively, related to its mean household size, and this theme will be taken up in the second article. These four points are illustrated by a series of tables drawn from the analysis of the one hundred communities.