Nuptiality and fertility of birth cohorts

The impact of changes in age patterns of nuptiality on the net reproduction rate is examined using life table techniques and assuming that age-specific fertility within marriage and fertility outside of marriage are fixed. In the second section, a standardization technique is used to investigate the impact of changes in nuptiality on age-cumulative measures of marital fertility. Examples using data for selected generations of Australian women demonstrate the extent to which recent changes in average completed family size in Australia were affected by changing nuptiality patterns.     

Asymptotic implications of fluctuating nuptiality and fertility considering both sexes together

In this paper we have suggested a procedure of measuring population change which takes into account fluctuating sequences of nuptiality and fertility schedules as they reflect a population’s response pattern to its changing socioeconomic conditions. Through numerical experiments, the two-sex population model of cyclical change, which considers the interaction between sexes through marriage, is seen to converge to an asymptotic stability. The advantage of such a convergence is to enable comparative investigations, in terms of a set of asymptotic parameters, of rather complex series of nuptiality and fertility changes and their implications for short-run oscillation in population structure as well as for long-run population growth.     

Nuptiality and population growth

Abstract In the European historical experience, nuptiality patterns played a very significant role in the development of low fertility. Late marriage and widespread celibacy provided one of the mechanisms by which age-specific fertility rates were brought to low levels in the populations of Western Europe. In Eastern and Central Europe on the other hand, where marriage customarily occurred earlier and was more nearly universal, a somewhat slower fertility transition was achieved through a reduction in marital fertility - without any drastic accompanying nuptiality change. Populations of developing countries, however, commonly exhibit nuptiality patterns characterized by a still higher incidence and a considerably younger age-pattern of marriage than even the earliest observed schedule from Eastern Europe. With few exceptions, little work has been done to date to examine the implications of these very early and universal marriage schedules for fertility in general and for the growth of these populations in particular.(1) We have therefore tried to analyse the impact of nuptiality on the fertility and growth of a series of populations from developing nations where extra-marital fertility is negligible. Populations in which the prevalence of cohabitation by age is not well documented by existing marital-status data (mainly those in Latin America and tropical Africa) are excluded from this analysis; an attempt will be made in later work, however, to extend the analysis to these populations.     

Nuptiality and population growth

In the European historical experience, nuptiality patterns played a very significant role in the development of low fertility. Late marriage and widespread celibacy provided one of the mechanisms by which age-specific fertility rates were brought to low levels in the populations of Western Europe. In Eastern and Central Europe on the other hand, where marriage customarily occurred earlier and was more nearly universal, a somewhat slower fertility transition was achieved through a reduction in marital fertility — without any drastic accompanying nuptiality change. Populations of developing countries, however, commonly exhibit nuptiality patterns characterized by a still higher incidence and a considerably younger age-pattern of marriage than even the earliest observed schedule from Eastern Europe. With few exceptions, little work has been done to date to examine the implications of these very early and universal marriage schedules for fertility in general and for the growth of these populations in particular.¹ We have therefore tried to analyse the impact of nuptiality on the fertility and growth of a series of populations from developing nations where extra-marital fertility is negligible. Populations in which the prevalence of cohabitation by age is not well documented by existing marital-status data (mainly those in Latin America and tropical Africa) are excluded from this analysis; an attempt will be made in later work, however, to extend the analysis to these populations.     

A preliminary investigation of the double-track feedback model of fertility control]

The need to consider the impact of nuptiality and fertility changes when developing models of fertility change in China is stressed. The authors conclude that the development of a system that regulates both fertility and marriage patterns is required if population growth is to be efficiently controlled through a population policy.     

Cohort nuptiality in England and Wales

Summary A computerized nuptiality system, called GENMAR, has been developed to investigate trends in cohort nuptiality in England and Wales. This system has five main programmes dealing with first marriage, the effects of changes in mortality on nuptiality measures, divorce, re-marriage, and marital status distribution. This paper summarizes the results of the application of the first programme to England and Wales data on first marriages of persons who were born in every single year since 1900. GENMAR-1 generated for each of these cohorts a 'complete' gross nuptiality table. The analysis shows that there have been substantial increases in the intensity of first marriage at young ages, a downward shift in the modal age at marriage, and a significant rise in the proportion ever married among women. The cohort nuptiality tables also show that the change in the nuptiality of women was due to changes in both the tempo and level of nuptiality, whereas the change for men was mainly the effect of shifts in the temporal pattern of nuptiality. There are, however, signs of a slow down of marriage among the cohorts born since the early 1950's.     

A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.     

Polygyny and the rate of population growth

Summary The roots, motives and feasibility of practising polygyny in societies with a balanced sex structure and the effect of polygyny on the rate of population growth are considered. High demand for labour combined with limited supply over the last several centuries, had been conducive to the evolution of a polygynous nuptiality pattern. The unprecedentedly high rates of population growth during the last several decades combined with progressive economic development have led to a change in the role of the labour factor and consequently diminished its impact upon polygyny. Polygyny is feasible because of a sex-age differential at first marriage, which enables younger cohorts of women to enter the marriage market, and thus results in a very early age at first marriage and universal incidence of marriage among women. A very young pattern of nuptiality inevitably evolves under polygyny, which tends to raise the rate of population growth. No significant variation in fertility between polygynous and monogamous women was found but substantial gaps in standards of living, child mortality, and educational attainment were noted for polygynous households. The findings imply that during the transition from polygyny to monogamy family size will tend to diminish, although initially fertility may not decline concurrently with changing socio-economic status. The most important effects on the rate of population growth thus result from the increase in age at first marriage and declining proportions of ever married women.     

Patterns underlying fertility schedules: A decomposition by both age and marriage duration

Summary Model fertility schedules based on the proportions married and the age pattern of marital fertility are unsatisfactory to the extent that marital fertility does not depend on age alone but also on other factors. Most notably, models based just on age fail to allow for differences between populations in their composition by marriage duration. Examination of the major series of fertility rates specific by both age and duration of marriage (Sweden 1911-70, England and Wales, 1941-70) reveals striking underlying regularities. The marital fertility rates observed at any given point in time can be factored into three independent components - an overall level, a vector of age effects common to all marriage durations and a vector of duration effects common to all age groups. A simple product of these three components is shown to approximate the data very closely over the entire series, despite major changes in the aggregate levels of fertility and nuptiality during the periods concerned. Not only are the data tightly structured, conforming very closely to this simple multiplicative model, but the vectors of age and duration effects themselves are shown to exhibit clear and meaningful regularities.     

A fertility analysis of New Zealand marriage cohorts

New Zealand annual returns of non-Maori live legitimate births 1913 to 1955 were tabulated longitudinally by marriage duration and birth order. The figures were used as numerators of fertility rates of forty marriage cohorts, specific for duration and birth order ; the twenty-four oldest cohorts had virtually completed fertility. For the denominators of the rates, the cohorts of initial size (estimated by a method similar to that described by P. H. Karmel) were survived by observing changes over time through divorce, death, widowhood, war-widowhood, and net external migration. The aim was to provide a set of data of the best possible approximation on variations of cohort fertility.

Total cohort rates, cumulated for twenty years’ duration of marriage, and segmental rates of relevant sub-periods are given for parities o to 7+. Total rates of the cohorts of completed fertility yielded values of family size, and were also used for parity progression ratios (by L. Henry’s formula). Segmental rates permitted a study of changes in timing maternities.

The analysis, which needs as a corollary a nuptiality analysis, is concerned, so far with past experience. It confirms the decline in number and proportion of large families. Both the parity progression ratios, and segmental rates of cohorts of as yet incomplete fertility, suggest some recent recovery in three- and fourchild families. For total fertility, such recovery might even be more significant than the observed decline in large families. On the other hand, birth-order specific changes in timing suggest lengthening of intervals among older cohorts as a trend upon which is superimposed the fluctuation due to postponement of, and recovery of a portion of postponed maternities. A construction of hypothetical timing patterns for incomplete cohorts by a simplified method of projection does not lead very far without support of observations on spacing that differentiate for family size.     

The relations between male and female nuptiality in a stable population

Both male and female nuptiality conditions can be calculated from any given population. Generally these conditions will be inconsistent in the sense that if applied continuously with given mortality and fertility conditions they would produce different sets of marriages, both in total numbers and in age distribution of bridegrooms and brides. It is shown that, given, say, male nuptiality, female nuptiality conditions consistent in the sense that both male and female conditions could hold in a stable population can be deduced. These consistent conditions depend on the ultimately stable rate of growth of the population. The mathematical formulae for the relations connecting various characteristics of the two consistent sets of nuptiality conditions are worked out (e.g. net probability of marrying, mean ages at marriage, marriage-rates at particular ages, etc.), the magnitudes of the parameters in the relations estimated and the relations are translated into numerical terms, showing the effects of changes in the level of the stable rate of growth on the. consistent nuptiality conditions.     

Age at marriage and proportions marrying

This paper deals with the recent widespread increase in marriage rates in the Western world. The principal materials used are data on the proportions single in each age group at various times. These data are used to estimate how far the ‘marriage boom’ has reflected decreases in the proportions of persons remaining single throughout life or reductions in the age at marriage of those who do marry. The conclusion is that changes of both types have occurred; the mean age at marriage has been declining in several countries at a rate of more than one-tenth of a year per annum. A number of ancillary technical problems relating to the analysis of nuptiality are discussed.     

Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100

I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projections from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth (SRB). To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze conditions will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structures.     

Marriage patterns and fertility of the world population]

Marriage patterns of the world population may be divided into two major categories; i.e., the traditional marriage pattern, and the European marriage pattern. Characteristics of the traditional marriage pattern are: early marriage, a high percentage of married people, and a low percentage of people who remain single during their lifetime. Characteristics of the European marriage pattern include: late marriage and a higher percentage of females who do not marry in their lifetime. In most parts of Asia and Africa and some Latin American countries, the traditional marriage pattern is dominant, and the birth rate in these countries has remained very high. Most countries in Europe show the characteristics of the European marriage pattern, and the fertility rate in these countries is comparatively low. Some other countries, such as Sri Lanka, are in a process of transformation in their marriage pattern, and their fertility level also shows a transition from a high fertility rate to a lower fertility rate. There is a close relationship between marriage patterns and the level of fertility.     

Timing effects on first marriage: twentieth-century experience in England and Wales and the USA

Recent substantial declines in first marriage in Western countries have been accompanied by increases in the average age at first marriage. Since the period proportion ever marrying, PEM, is sensitive to cohort tempo changes, the recent fall in the PEM may simply reflect cohort delays in marriage. The importance of timing factors is examined in the light of twentieth-century experience of first marriage in England and Wales and the USA. Using a variant of the Timing Index developed in research on fertility, we measure cohort timing effects for marriage and calculate an adjusted PEM. After examining twentieth-century trends in nuptiality for men and women, we find substantial tempo effects on the period PEM. Adjusted PEM values show a real decline in marriage for cohorts, but that decline is considerably smaller than the one shown by the unadjusted figures. This is especially true for England and Wales, where the decline in marriage was much greater.     

The interrelations of marital status,fertility, family size and intelligence test scores

In this paper data relating to men born in 1924 in the two southernmost counties of Sweden, and called up for military service in 1944 are analyzed. The population registers yield certain demographic and social information about these men, and this may be related to their performance in an intelligence test administered when they were called up. The association between test scores and level of schooling on one hand, and such variables as nuptiality, age at marriage, number of sibs, marital fertility, the incidence of pre-nuptial conceptions and occupational class is discussed, and an estimate of the influence of differential fertility on the trend of intelligence is given.     

Adolescent migration and the 1990s nuptiality transition in Mali

Attempts to explain the rise in women's age at marriage across Africa have focused mainly on determinants in the urban environment, notably women's education and the economic recession. In our study, we examined the migration of adolescent girls as a factor in the transition to a later age of marriage in rural Mali, using an analysis of data from a longitudinal survey conducted over 20 years. The findings show a close correlation between the rise in labour migration and the onset of this nuptiality transition. Continuing changes in marriage patterns include not only its postponement but also a breakdown in the marriage formalization process. Two main mechanisms are documented: a direct one, as migration enables young women to choose the timing of their marriage and is a source of empowerment; and an indirect one, as migration challenges family marriage conventions and contributes to elders disengaging from control over marriage and young people.     

Measuring the tightness of a marriage squeeze

The “marriage squeeze,” or the effect on marriage of an imbalance between the numbers of males and females, has been seen as having a great influence on contemporary marriage behavior. Nonetheless, the literature does not contain a clear definition of exactly what a marriage squeeze is and contains few quantitative estimates of its impact on marriage. The present article provides a precise definition of the marriage squeeze in equation (2), and applies it to measure both artificially produced marriage squeezes in two-sex nuptiality stable populations and the experience of the United States during the period 1950–1990. The marriage squeeze is shown to be capable of producing significant changes in both the level and distribution of marriage, and it appears to be having such an impact in some contemporary Third World societies. For developed     

Canada, United States, Australia and New Zealand: Nuptiality trends

Abstract Annual variations are often more brutal for nuptiality than they are for other demographic phenomena. Short-term economic movements, in particular, seem to have a more direct impact. Fig. 1 clearly illustrates this point for Australia during the thirties. Nuptiality rates dip more sharply and recuperation is more pronounced: not only do they follow the employment trend, they amplify it. 1 For nuptiality and fertility, the two indicators we chose are probably the most responsive to short-term movements. They result respectively, from the addition of age-specific first-marriage rates (number of first marriages at age x/total population age x) for ages 15 to 50, and from the combination of parity progression ratios which gives the average number of births per marriage, (a (0)+a (0) a (1)+a (0) a (1) a (2)+ ..., where a (1) is the ratio ofwomen who have a child of order i+1 per 1,000 mothers of children of order i). For each year these were divided by the corresponding cohort index, i.e. the proportion ever-married, and the mean number of ever-born children per marriage. The cohort used for a given year is that which reaches its mean age at first marriage in that year or its mean duration at birth of the children. Nine months are subtracted from the fertility measure to give time of conception. The economic indicator is a measure obtained by dividing the number of jobs by the population aged 15 to 64. All indices are calculated using the 1926-1927 figures as base 100.