Effects of an Advisory Brochure on Fish Consumption of Urban Anglers in the Great Lakes Region

Past research has suggested that urban anglers are a group at high risk of being exposed to contaminants from fish consumption. Fish consumption advisories have been used in many regions to encourage healthy fish‐eating behaviors, but few studies have been designed to assess whether these advisories actually influence behavior as intended. We conducted a large‐scale, randomized experiment to test the influence of an advisory brochure on urban anglers’ fish consumption. We collected detailed information on anglers’ fish consumption in three urban counties in the Great Lakes region in the summers of 2014 and 2015. We provided a treatment group with fish consumption guidelines in an advisory brochure before the summer of 2015 and compared their change in fish consumption to a control group. The brochure led to a reduction in fish consumption for anglers who ate the most fish; these anglers reduced their consumption of high‐contaminant purchased fish (by ≥0.2 meals/summer for those in 72nd percentile of fish consumption or above), high‐contaminant sport‐caught fish (by ≥0.4 meals/summer for those in 87th percentile and above), and low‐contaminant sport‐caught fish (by ≥0.3 meals/summer by those in 76th percentile and above). The brochure also reduced sport‐caught fish consumption among those anglers who exceeded the advisories in 2014 (by 2.0 meals/summer). In addition, the brochure led to small increases in sport‐caught fish consumption (0.4–0.6 meals/summer) in urban anglers who ate very little sport‐caught fish (≤1 meal/summer).     

Factors in Exposure Assessment: Ethnic and Socioeconomic Differences in Fishing and Consumption of Fish Caught along the Savannah River

South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kg/year) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.     

Human Mercury Toxicity and Ice Angler Fish Consumption: Are People Eating Enough to Cause Health Problems?

Mercury contamination of aquatic ecosystems is a global environmental concern. Bioaccumulation of mercury in fish exposes consumers to risk. We interviewed ice anglers on Monona Bay, Wisconsin during the 2001-2002 ice fishing season to determine risk associated with fish consumption and methyl mercury (MeHg) intake. The majority of anglers (95%) were not at risk of mercury toxicity because they ate less fish than would be required to create health problems. The remaining 5% of ice anglers barely exceeded the mercury toxicity threshold, with the exception of one angler who exceeded the threshold by 0.926 ppm. Anglers encountered were all male and predominantly Caucasian. Fish consumption by ice anglers was independent of awareness of consumption advisories, education, income, and age. This suggests that future awareness efforts should (1) identify groups of anglers most at risk and (2) create policies to effectively reach these audiences.     

Use of Quality-Adjusted Life Year Weights with Dose-Response Models for Public Health Decisions: A Case Study of the Risks and Benefits of Fish Consumption

Risks associated with toxicants in food are often controlled by exposure reduction. When exposure recommendations are developed for foods with both harmful and beneficial qualities, however, they must balance the associated risks and benefits to maximize public health. Although quantitative methods are commonly used to evaluate health risks, such methods have not been generally applied to evaluating the health benefits associated with environmental exposures. A quantitative method for risk-benefit analysis is presented that allows for consideration of diverse health endpoints that differ in their impact (i.e., duration and severity) using dose-response modeling weighted by quality-adjusted life years saved. To demonstrate the usefulness of this method, the risks and benefits of fish consumption are evaluated using a single health risk and health benefit endpoint. Benefits are defined as the decrease in myocardial infarction mortality resulting from fish consumption, and risks are defined as the increase in neurodevelopmental delay (i.e., talking) resulting from prenatal methylmercury exposure. Fish consumption rates are based on information from Washington State. Using the proposed framework, the net health impact of eating fish is estimated in either a whole population or a population consisting of women of childbearing age and their children. It is demonstrated that across a range of fish methylmercury concentrations (0-1 ppm) and intake levels (0-25 g/day), individuals would have to weight the neurodevelopmental effects 6 times more (in the whole population) or 250 times less (among women of child-bearing age and their children) than the myocardial infarction benefits in order to be ambivalent about whether or not to consume fish. These methods can be generalized to evaluate the merits of other public health and risk management programs that involve trade-offs between risks and benefits.     

Weighing Health Benefit and Health Risk Information when Consuming Sport-Caught Fish

Fish consumers may incur benefits and risks from eating fish. Health advisories issued by states, tribes, and other entities typically include advice about how to limit fish consumption or change other behaviors (e.g., fish cleaning or cooking) to reduce health risks from exposure to contaminants. Eating fish, however, may provide health benefits. Risk communicators and fish consumers have suggested the importance of including risk comparison information, as well as health risk-benefit comparisons in health advisory communications. To improve understanding about how anglers fishing in waters affected by health advisories may respond to such risk-risk or risk-benefit information, we surveyed Lake Ontario (NY, USA) anglers. We interviewed by telephone 4,750 anglers, 2,593 of which had fished Lake Ontario in the past 12 months and were sent a detailed mail questionnaire (1,245 responded). We posed questions varying the magnitude of health risks and health benefits to be gained by fish consumption, and varied the population affected by these risks and benefits (anglers, children, women of childbearing age, and unborn children). Respondents were influenced by health benefit and health risk information. When risks were high, most respondents would eat less fish regardless of the benefit level. When risks were low, the magnitude of change in fish consumption was related to level of benefit. Responses differed depending on the question wording order, that is, whether "risks" were posed before "benefits." For a given risk-benefit level, respondents would give different advice to women of childbearing age versus children, with more conservative advice (eat less fish) provided to women of childbearing age. Respondents appeared to be influenced more strongly by risk-risk comparisons (e.g., risks from other foods vs. risks from fish) than by risk-benefit comparisons (e.g., risks from fish vs. benefits from fish). Risk analysts and risk communicators should improve efforts to include risk-risk and risk-benefit comparisons in communication efforts, and to clarify to whom the health risks and benefits from fish consumption may accrue.     

Utilization survey of a rural creek fishery in central Alabama

A one-year angler intercept survey was conducted on Choccolocco Creek, a rural, limited access tributary to the Coosa River in northeastern Alabama. The purpose of the survey was to collect data and information about the behaviors and fish consumption habits of the recreational anglers who fish there. Nine survey locations were included in the stratified sampling plan, and sampling occurred throughout daylight hours, on weekdays and weekends/holidays, during all four seasons of the year. Surveys were completed on a total of 101 survey days between June 28, 2008 and June 27, 2009.(6) Seventy-two anglers were observed fishing during the survey period, and 52 (72%) of those individuals agreed to participate in the survey. Based on the information collected by the survey clerks, the angler population fishes the Creek between 1 and 54 times per year, with an average frequency of seven trips per year. The average number of months fished was three months per year, with a range of one to nine months. Only 15% of the anglers who participated in the survey (eight individuals) had succeeded in catching fish by the end of their trips, and only four of those individuals (8%) had retained any of the fish they had caught for consumption. Reasons provided for not retaining fish were that they either only fished for sport, did not catch enough fish to eat, or the fish they caught were too small to keep. Because so few anglers used and harvested fish from the resource, fish consumption rates could not be determined with a high degree of confidence. However, from these limited data it was estimated that the three anglers for whom consumption rates could be estimated had annualized average daily fish consumption rates of 0.14, 0.44, and 7.9 grams per day (g/day). The majority of anglers traveled less than 10 miles to fish the Creek. It was estimated that a total population of 173 anglers use the Creek each year. The results of this survey indicated that Choccolocco Creek is a local fishery that is not heavily used by area residents.     

Foodborne Exposure to Pesticides and Methylmercury in the United Arab Emirates

As part of a comprehensive environmental health strategic planning project initiated by the government of Abu Dhabi, we assessed potential dietary exposure in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to methylmercury (in seafood) and pesticides (in fruits and vegetables) above international guideline levels. We present results for the UAE population by age, gender, and body mass index. Our results show very low daily risks of exposure to pesticides in fruits and vegetables at levels exceeding WHO guidelines even under the conservative assumption that no pesticides are removed during washing and food preparation. Thus, exposure to pesticides on fruits and vegetables does not appear to be a major public health concern in the UAE. The chances of exposure to methylmercury in seafood are much higher; our model estimates a mean 1 in 5 daily risk of exceeding the FAO/WHO provisional tolerable weekly intake. However, great caution should be used in interpreting these results, as we analyzed only the risks and not the substantial benefits of fish consumption. In fact, previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to the n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in fish can increase IQ in developing children, and it can substantially decrease the risk in adults of coronary heart disease and stroke. Further research is warranted to compare the risk of Me‐Hg exposure from fish to the nutritional benefits of fish consumption in the UAE and to determine appropriate methods to communicate risk and benefit information to the UAE population.     

Using a Web‐Based Diary Method to Estimate Risks and Benefits from Fish Consumption

Accurate estimates of the amount and type of fish people eat are necessary to determine the health benefits and risks of consuming fish, and to assess compliance with fish consumption guidelines issued for fish affected by chemical contaminants. We developed a web‐based and mobile‐phone‐enabled diary methodology to collect detailed fish consumption information for two 16‐week periods in the summers of 2014 and 2015. We recruited study participants from two populations living in the Great Lakes region—women of childbearing age (WCBA) and urban residents who had purchased fishing licenses. In this article, we describe the methodology in detail and provide evidence related to participation rates, the representativeness of our sample over time, and both convergent validity and reliability of the data collection methods. Overall, 56% of WCBA and 50% of urban anglers provided complete data across both data collection periods. Among those who provided information at the beginning of Year 2, 97% of both audiences provided information throughout the entire 16‐week period. Those who participated throughout the two‐year period were slightly older on average (1.9–2.5 years) than other members of our original samples. We conclude that using diaries with web and smartphone technology, combined with incentives and persistent communication, has strong potential for assessing fish consumption in other areas of the country or for situations where the potential risks associated with fish consumption are substantial and the cost can be justified.     

Lognormal Distributions for Fish Consumption by the General U.S. Population

The rate of fish consumption is a critical variable in the assessment of human health risk from water bodies affected by chemical contamination and in the establishment of federal and state Ambient Water Quality Criteria (AWQC). For 1973 and 1974, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) analyzed data on the consumption of salt-water finfish, shellfish, and freshwater finfish from all sources in 10 regions of the United States for three age groups in the general population: children (ages 1 through 11 years), teenagers (ages 12 through 18 years), and adults (ages 19 through 98 years). Even though the NMFS data reported in Ref. 14 are 20 years old, they remain the most complete data on the overall consumption of all fish by the general U.S. population and they have been widely used to select point values for consumption. Using three methods, we fit lognormal distributions to the results of the survey as analyzed and published in Ref. 14. Strong lognormal fits were obtained for most of the 90 separate data sets. These results cannot necessarily be used to model the consumption of fish by sport or subsistence anglers from specific sites or from single water bodies.     

Estimates of per Capita Fish Consumption in the U.S. Based on the Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII)

This paper presents estimates of daily average per capita fish consumption by age and gender for the 48 conterminous states. The estimated consumption rates are reported for three fish habitats: freshwater/estuarine fish, marine fish, and all fish. The estimates were generated from the combined 1989, 1990, and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII), a national food consumption survey conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Point and interval estimates of per capita fish consumption were generated from the empirical distribution of daily average per capita consumption. The point estimates include the mean, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Ninety percent confidence intervals are provided for the estimated mean and 90% bootstrap intervals are provided for percentile estimates. Information in a recipe file provided by USDA was used to calculate the amount of fish in recipes which contain fish. The estimated consumption rates are based on the weight of fish in its prepared or "as consumed" condition. The estimated mean consumption rate for all fish for the U.S. population of the 48 conterminous states was 15.65 grams/person/day (C.I.:14.67–16.63) of which 4.71 grams/person/day (C.I.:4.17–5.25) was freshwater/estuarine fish and 10.94 grams/person/day (C.I.: 10.14–11.73) was marine fish.     

Combining Food Frequency and Survey Data to Quantify Long-Term Dietary Exposure: A Methyl Mercury Case Study

Twenty-four-hour recall data from the Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII) are frequently used to estimate dietary exposure for risk assessment. Food frequency questionnaires are traditional instruments of epidemiological research; however, their application in dietary exposure and risk assessment has been limited. This article presents a probabilistic method of bridging the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) food frequency and the CSFII data to estimate longitudinal (usual) intake, using a case study of seafood mercury exposures for two population subgroups (females 16 to 49 years and children 1 to 5 years). Two hundred forty-nine CSFII food codes were mapped into 28 NHANES fish/shellfish categories. FDA and state/local seafood mercury data were used. A uniform distribution with minimum and maximum blood-diet ratios of 0.66 to 1.07 was assumed. A probabilistic assessment was conducted to estimate distributions of individual 30-day average daily fish/shellfish intakes, methyl mercury exposure, and blood levels. The upper percentile estimates of fish and shellfish intakes based on the 30-day daily averages were lower than those based on two- and three-day daily averages. These results support previous findings that distributions of "usual" intakes based on a small number of consumption days provide overestimates in the upper percentiles. About 10% of the females (16 to 49 years) and children (1 to 5 years) may be exposed to mercury levels above the EPA's RfD. The predicted 75th and 90th percentile blood mercury levels for the females in the 16-to-49-year group were similar to those reported by NHANES. The predicted 90th percentile blood mercury levels for children in the 1-to-5-year subgroup was similar to NHANES and the 75th percentile estimates were slightly above the NHANES.     

Fishing in a Polluted Estuary: Fishing Behavior, Fish Consumption, and Potential Risk

People make subjective judgments about hazards relying on what they know and feel. These risk perceptions may be based on accurate or inaccurate information and are often optimistically biased. The existence of uncertainties in the evaluation of many environmental hazards effects how risks are perceived. This paper examines fish consumption and risk perception of urban fishermen in the New York/New Jersey estuary, in areas where there were consumption advisories. We interviewed 318 fishermen and crabbers in the Arthur Kill, Raritan Bay, and New Jersey shore. Fish were eaten an average of at least four times per month in all regions, but fishermen in the Arthur Kill fished most frequently, averaging over eight times per month. Although 60% of fishermen and crabbers in the Arthur Kill reported hearing warnings about consuming fish caught in these waters, 70% of fishermen and 76% of crabbers said they ate their catch. Significantly fewer fishermen in the Bay and Shore regions had heard warnings (28% and 30%, respectively), and more reported consuming their catch (88% and 82%, respectively). In all regions, most people thought that the fish were safe to eat, many believing they were "fresher" than store bought fish. Thus, most people ignored the consumption advisories in effect for these waters. Some of these people are consuming high quantities of fish and crabs, and thus are exposed to potentially deleterious levels of contaminants. In general, people failed to consider the possibility of chronic effects and did not perceive that this enjoyable, familiar pastime could be hazardous. Further, fishermen generally had great confidence in their own knowledge, which proved to be inaccurate in many cases, and often expressed distrust in the information source (government). Clearly, simply issuing consumption advisories is insufficient to promote risk-reducing behavior.     

Radiocesium in Fish from the Savannah River and Steel Creek: Potential Food Chain Exposure to the Public

This study examined radiocesium (137Cs) levels in fish from the vicinity of the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. Fish from the Savannah River were sampled above (upstream), along, and below (downstream) the SRS, and from Steel Creek, a tributary that runs through the SRS. There was some off-site contamination of 137Cs in the Savannah River watershed due to low-level releases from past nuclear production on the SRS. The null hypotheses tested were that there would be no differences in 137Cs levels as a function of location along the river, and between species collected from the river and from Steel Creek on the SRS. For six of eight species of fish collected from the Savannah River, there were no differences in 137Cs levels in muscle from fish collected above, along, or below the SRS; exceptions were bowfin and shellcracker. Fish collected from Steel Creek had significantly higher levels (by about an order of magnitude) of 137Cs in muscle tissue than fish collected in the Savannah River. However, no fish from either Steel Creek or the Savannah River had 137Cs levels above the European Economic Community limit for fresh meat of 0.6 Bq/g. Lifetime cancer risk was calculated using the cancer slope factor of 3.2 x 10(-11)/pCi, and various fish consumption scenarios reflecting actual data from Savannah River fishermen. Using mean 137Cs concentrations and median fish consumption for 70 years for Black males-the group with the highest consumption-the excess lifetime risk associated with the eight species of fish in the Savannah River ranged from 9.0 x 10(-7) to 1.0 x 10(-5). The same calculation for fish from Steel Creek gave risk estimates from 1.4 to 8.0 x 10(-5). The 95% level for consumption by Blacks, however, was about 70 kg/year. Black fishermen consuming that amount of bass from Steel Creek would sustain a lifetime risk of 3.1 x 10(-4), whereas the same consumption of Savannah River bass would yield a risk estimate of 1.5 x 10(-5).     

Fish for Dinner? Balancing Risks,Benefits, and Values in Formulating Food Consumption Advice

Many and complex factors underlie seemingly simple decisions about what to eat. This is particularly so for foods such as fish, which present consumers with both risks and benefits. Advice about what type of and how much fish to consume is abundant, but that advice is often confusing or contradictory, reflecting the differing mandates and orientations of those advising. We survey a range of issues that can and should be incorporated into dietary advice, and offer tools for health agencies tasked with providing it. We argue that risks and benefits should not be limited to direct physical health. Rather, socioeconomic and community factors, unintended or indirect effects, and nonhuman‐health outcomes such as animal welfare and planetary health should also be considered and weighed. We provide examples of existing fish consumption guidance to highlight the conflicting messages that emerge when different sources of advice with singular aims of avoiding risk, gaining nutritional benefit, or sustaining fish populations are juxtaposed. We then offer tools borrowed from health and other fields to guide health agencies toward developing more comprehensive advice and targeting that advice for specific populations.     

Issues in Evaluating Fish Consumption Rates for Native American Tribes

The environmental health goals of many Native American tribes are to restore natural resources and ensure that they are safe to harvest and consume in traditional subsistence quantities. Therefore, it is important to tribes to accurately estimate risks incurred through the consumption of subsistence foods. This article explores problems in conventional fish consumption survey methods used in widely cited tribal fish consumption reports. The problems arise because of the following: (1) widely cited reports do not clearly state what they intend to do with the data supporting these reports, (2) data collection methods are incongruent with community norms and protocols, (3) data analysis methods omit or obscure the highest consumer subset of the population, (4) lack of understanding or recognition of tribal health co‐risk factors, and (5) restrictive policies that do not allow inclusion of tribal values within state or federal actions. In particular, the data collection and analysis methods in current tribal fish consumption surveys result in the misunderstanding that tribal members are satisfied with eating lower contemporary amounts of fish and shellfish, rather than the subsistence amounts that their cultural heritage and aboriginal rights indicate. A community‐based interview method developed in collaboration with and used by the Swinomish Tribe is suggested as a way to gather more accurate information on contemporary consumption rates. For traditional subsistence rates, a multidisciplinary reconstruction method is recommended.     

Communicating Contaminant Risks from Sport-Caught Fish: The Importance of Target Audience Assessment

A fish consumption health advisory has existed for New York Lake Ontario sport-caught fish since 1978. Our study objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness of the advisory for reaching potential target audiences and to identify appropriate advisory content, style, and dissemination methods using a risk communication planning model as an evaluation framework. We used a combination of mail surveys and personal interviews with three target audiences (opinion leaders among recreational anglers and charter boat operators, migrant farm workers, and low-income individuals) and two communicator groups (fishery experts and health care experts). The New York Lake Ontario advisory appeared to be successful in reaching and encouraging risk-mitigating fish consumption behavior in recreational angler opinion leaders and low-income individuals but not in migrant farm workers. The advisory may not be reaching two sensitive subpopulations, women of childbearing age and children. Communicators and target audiences differed in their assessments of important information to include in an advisory. The health advisory could be improved with additional information such as risk-reducing cooking and cleaning methods and by diversifying the dissemination methods to reach the variety of audiences who potentially consume Lake Ontario fish.     

Evaluating Efficiency-Equality Tradeoffs for Mobile Source Control Strategies in an Urban Area

In environmental risk management, there are often interests in maximizing public health benefits (efficiency) and addressing inequality in the distribution of health outcomes. However, both dimensions are not generally considered within a single analytical framework. In this study, we estimate both total population health benefits and changes in quantitative indicators of health inequality for a number of alternative spatial distributions of diesel particulate filter retrofits across half of an urban bus fleet in Boston, Massachusetts. We focus on the impact of emissions controls on primary fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions, modeling the effect on PM_2.5 concentrations and premature mortality. Given spatial heterogeneity in baseline mortality rates, we apply the Atkinson index and other inequality indicators to quantify changes in the distribution of mortality risk. Across the different spatial distributions of control strategies, the public health benefits varied by more than a factor of two, related to factors such as mileage driven per day, population density near roadways, and baseline mortality rates in exposed populations. Changes in health inequality indicators varied across control strategies, with the subset of optimal strategies considering both efficiency and equality generally robust across different parametric assumptions and inequality indicators. Our analysis demonstrates the viability of formal analytical approaches to jointly address both efficiency and equality in risk assessment, providing a tool for decisionmakers who wish to consider both issues.     

Using Probabilistic Modeling to Evaluate Human Exposure to Organotin in Drinking Water Transported by Polyvinyl Chloride Pipe

The leaching of organotin (OT) heat stabilizers from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipes used in residential drinking water systems may affect the quality of drinking water. These OTs, principally mono- and di-substituted species of butyltins and methyltins, are a potential health concern because they belong to a broad class of compounds that may be immune, nervous, and reproductive system toxicants. In this article, we develop probability distributions of U.S. population exposures to mixtures of OTs encountered in drinking water transported by PVC pipes. We employed a family of mathematical models to estimate OT leaching rates from PVC pipe as a function of both surface area and time. We then integrated the distribution of estimated leaching rates into an exposure model that estimated the probability distribution of OT concentrations in tap waters and the resulting potential human OT exposures via tap water consumption. Our study results suggest that human OT exposures through tap water consumption are likely to be considerably lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) "safe" long-term concentration in drinking water (150 μg/L) for dibutyltin (DBT)—the most toxic of the OT considered in this article. The 90th percentile average daily dose (ADD) estimate of 0.034 ± 2.92 × 10⁻⁴μg/kg day is approximately 120 times lower than the WHO-based ADD for DBT (4.2 μg/kg day).     

Using Theory to Identify Beliefs Associated with Intentions to Follow Fish Consumption Advisories Among Anglers Living in the Great Lakes Region

Fish consumption advisories are issued by states, tribes, and federal agencies to provide guidance to consumers about eating sport‐caught fish potentially affected by chemical contaminants. Previous work has found that while anglers report being aware that advisories are available, awareness and use of specific advisory recommendations is low. This study uses the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction (IMBP) to identify beliefs with potential to increase intentions to follow fish consumption advisories in Great Lakes states. We conducted a mail survey of 1,712 licensed anglers in seven of eight Great Lakes states (excluding Ohio) to gauge advisory awareness, cognitive factors influencing fish consumption behaviors (informed by the IMBP), and sociodemographic characteristics. Results show that most anglers reported being generally or vaguely aware of fish consumption advisories and try to follow them, but far fewer report being aware of specific advice needed to decide whether or not to consume different types of sport‐caught fish. Informed by the IMBP, we also identify several behavioral, normative, and control beliefs that have sufficient room to change, strong associations with intentions to follow the advisories, and potential to be modified if targeted with strategic risk messages. Targeting these beliefs with strategic communication holds potential to increase the proportion of anglers intending to follow fish consumption advisory recommendations in choosing which fish to eat.     

Importance of Uncertainty and Variability to Predicted Risks from Trophic Transfer of PCBs in Dredged Sediments

Biomagnification of organochlorine and other persistent organic contaminants by higher trophic level organisms represents one of the most significant sources of uncertainty and variability in evaluating potential risks associated with disposal of dredged materials. While it is important to distinguish between population variability (e.g., true population heterogeneity in fish weight, and lipid content) and uncertainty (e.g., measurement error), they can be operationally difficult to define separately in probabilistic estimates of human health and ecological risk. We propose a disaggregation of uncertain and variable parameters based on: (1) availability of supporting data; (2) the specific management and regulatory context (in this case, of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tiered approach to dredged material management); and (3) professional judgment and experience in conducting probabilistic risk assessments. We describe and quantitatively evaluate several sources of uncertainty and variability in estimating risk to human health from trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using a case study of sediments obtained from the New York-New Jersey Harbor and being evaluated for disposal at an open water off-shore disposal site within the northeast region. The estimates of PCB concentrations in fish and dietary doses of PCBs to humans ingesting fish are expressed as distributions of values, of which the arithmetic mean or mode represents a particular fractile. The distribution of risk values is obtained using a food chain biomagnification model developed by Gobas by specifying distributions for input parameters disaggregated to represent either uncertainty or variability. Only those sources of uncertainty that could be quantified were included in the analysis. Results for several different two-dimensional Latin Hypercube analyses are provided to evaluate the influence of the uncertain versus variable disaggregation of model parameters. The analysis suggests that variability in human exposure parameters is greater than the uncertainty bounds on any particular fractile, given the described assumptions.