The electoral consequences of alienation: Nonvoting and protest voting in the 1992 presidential race

This article focuses on the context of the 1992 national elections in order to determine why certain alienated individuals chose to stay home on election day while others responded by voting for a third party Presidential candidate. Two dimensions of alienation, internal and external political inefficacy, are linked to lower levels of voting, as is consistent with previous research on voting behavior. In addition, we find that, among those who voted, those individuals who expressed political cynicism or external inefficacy were more likely to vote for Ross Perot. We conclude that, while many alienated individuals do not vote, the Perot candidacy in 1992 led certain alienated individuals to engage in “protest” voting by casting their vote for an unlikely winner in the presidential race.     

Strategic voting in the 1984 democratic presidential primaries

When casting their ballots in primary elections, voters usually vote in a straight-forward manner for the candidate of their preference. But sometimes sophisticated voters vote for a second or third choice who has a better chance of winning in the general election or even cross over to the opposition party to vote for a candidate who will be easier to defeat in the general election. This article assesses the amount and importance of such strategic voting in Democratic presidential primaries in 1984 using discriminate analysis.     

Who should cast the casting vote? Using sequential voting to amalgamate information

In this study, we are concerned with how agents can best amalgamate their private information about a binary state of Nature. The agents are heterogeneous in their “ability”, the quality of their private information. The agents cannot directly communicate their private information but instead can only vote between the two states (say “Innocent” or “Guilty” on a criminal jury). We first describe possible methods of sequential majority voting, and then we analyze a particular one: the first \(n-1\) jurors vote simultaneously and, in the case of a tie, the remaining juror has the casting vote. We prove that when \(n=3\) (a common situation for a tribunal of three judges), the probability of a correct verdict is maximized when the agent of median ability has the casting vote.     

¿Amigo de la Raza? Reexamining Determinants of Latino Support in the U.S. Congress*

Objectives. This study updates and extends research on substantive Latino representation in the U.S. Congress. An improved method of measuring “Latino interests” is proposed. Methods. Using a scorecard from the National Hispanic Leadership Agenda as the dependent variable, standard OLS regression is employed to determine the variables that best predict how members of the 108th Congress vote on issues that are salient to the Latino community. Results. The findings indicate that Latinos are substantively represented overwhelmingly by Democrats and those from majority‐Democratic districts or states, while religion and level of constituency poverty also play a notable role. Conclusion. This study adds strong support to the “party as a substantive representative” model of minority representation. It also shows that Latinos are not more likely to be substantively represented by fellow Latinos, nor do larger Latino constituencies affect a lawmaker's propensity to vote in favor of Latino interests.     

Dimensions of Structural Disadvantage: A Latent Class Analysis of a Neighborhood Measure in Child Welfare Data

ABSTRACT

Contextual constructs, such as neighborhood structure, may contribute to child welfare involvement. Secondary data analysis is used with the nationally representative, longitudinal National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being-II (N = 5,872). This study employs latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the number of classes needed to explain the distribution of caregiver responses on the Community Environment Scale. LCA is ideal for this study to identify meaningful groups of caregivers involved with child welfare using neighborhood risk factors. Three latent classes are identified: high social order/medium social capital; high social order/low social capital; low social order/low social capital. Multinomial logistic regression tests whether there are significant differences across the classes, partially validating the LCA that poor, minority caregivers live in neighborhoods with lower social order and capital. Understanding neighborhoods as “high” versus “low” risk may not fully illuminate contextual risk factors in order to develop neighborhood-based interventions. This study reveals that there is a third group of caregivers who reside in places with higher social order but lower social capital. Social capital might be an important factor in preventing child maltreatment. Future work is needed to understand additional individual and neighborhood characteristics that predict membership in each class.     

Disentangling Constituency and Legislator Effects in Legislative Representation: Black Legislators or Black Districts?*

Objective. Does the race of a legislator or does the black population of a district best predict legislative roll‐call voting in the interests of African Americans? Due to methodological limitations, no prior study has found that both the race of the legislator and the black district population are significant predictors of congressional roll‐call voting. Drawing on post Shaw v. Reno/Miller v. Johnson congressional districts (with greater data variance), I examine the effect of these two racial representation variables on roll‐call voting in the 104th–106th Congresses. Methods. Linear regression with random effects is employed in two statistical models. Results. Even when the black district population and party are considered, the presence of an African‐American legislator leads to greater substantive representation of black constituents. Conclusion. Districting plans that maximize the election of black legislators and Democrats are the most important for the aggregate enhancement of liberal voting in Congress, while districting plans that maximize black district populations and Democrats are the most important for the aggregate enhancement of civil rights voting records in Congress.     

Backing Barack Because He's Black: Racially Motivated Voting in the 2008 Election*

Objective. If racial considerations influenced the outcome of the 2008 presidential election, then how did they shape the campaign, why did race matter, and for whom were such considerations important? I hypothesize that various racial attitudes exert unique influences on voters' support of Obama and that the effects of these attitudes differ by race. Methods. Using a Time Magazine poll, I distinguish between “attitudes regarding Obama's ‘Blackness’” and “opinions about race relations,” and I examine such sentiments among White and African‐American respondents. Results. Regardless of race, Obama support was highest among voters who were “comfortable” with Black candidates. However, increased optimism with racial progress had no effect on Blacks' voting intentions, and it actually lowered Obama support among Whites. Conclusion. The conventional wisdom is that African Americans “backed Barack because he is Black”; I demonstrate that Obama's race mattered more to White voters than it did to Blacks.     

Regional Variations in the Realignment of American Politics, 1944–2004*

Objective. Perennial questions in electoral studies are what constitutes realignment, and when and where do realignments occur? Using the concepts of critical and secular realignments as a framework, we model change in the end product of realignment, election outcomes. We test for secular and critical changes in partisan strength across six geographic regions of the United States, focusing on office‐holding data at both the federal and state legislative level. Methods. Using an interrupted time‐series model, we examine evidence for secular realignment and posit five critical interventions that have affected American politics since World War II. Results. Our findings suggest that there are elements of both critical and secular realignments at work with different patterns in each region, and that different regions have been affected by a variety of elections associated with critical events since 1944. Conclusions. The collapse of Republican hegemony in the Northeast and Pacific West has gone largely unnoticed, buried in the intense examination of the growth of the Republican Party in the American South. The 1994 election is the most prominent in terms of its impact on seat holding by the parties at both the state and national level, and constitutes a realigning election.     

Three's a crowd? The Nader vote in the 2000 presidential, election in U.S. metropolitan areas

The 2000 U.S. presidential election resulted in one of the closest and most controversial outcomes in U.S. history. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader had little chance of winning, but nevertheless impacted the race in several close states and arguably swung the race from Al Gore to George W. Bush. This research examines Ralph Nader's “urban strategy” to win 5% of the vote for president and the bases of his electoral support. This study uses the METRO_2000 data set which contains a variety of publicly available variables for 276 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the year 2000. The analysis uses OLS regression to examine the determinants of the percentage of the vote for Nader in each MSA. The results indicate that the Nader vote was positively influenced by key electoral variables such as the level of electoral participation, whether Nader was on the ballot or could be written in, and the closeness of the race in state polls leading up to the election. The Nader vote was also higher in MSAs with high percentages of voters who supported Nader programs including environmentalists, those favoring universal health care and gay rights, union members, and MSAs that were college towns or with high percentages of college-educated voters. Ralph Nader's urban strategy effectively mobilized enough of his electoral base to impact the 2000 election, but electoral constraints and the closeness of the race prevented him from achieving his goal of attaining 5% of the vote. This case holds lessons about the limits and possibilities of third party campaigns in U.S. presidential elections.     

Everyday Racism as Predictor of Political Racism in Flemish Belgium

Two aspects of research on racism in Flanders (Belgium) are discussed in this article based on results from large-scale surveys between 1991 and 2003. The first relates to the (negative) attitudes of the majority toward foreigners (everyday racism) . The second relates to the vote for an extreme right-wing political party that emphasizes anti-immigrant viewpoints in its political program and propaganda (political racism) . Our main research question is how both forms of racism are related. First, theories to explain political racism are reviewed. Some theories suggest an extreme right-wing vote to be motivated by a content-related agreement with (part of) the program of these parties (e.g., racism, nationalism, or authoritarianism). Other theories suggest that this vote represents an antipolitical protest vote. From these theories, hypotheses are derived regarding the background characteristics and attitudes that are associated with an extreme right-wing vote (e.g., the Vlaams Blok). These hypotheses are tested using data from election research in 1991, 1999, and 2003. The results suggest that the vote for the party Vlaams Blok is a rational vote. Of all theories, the theory suggesting that everyday racism plays a prominent role received most support. Everyday racism thus motivates political racism in the Flemish part of Belgium.     

The Intrinsic Influence of the Poetics of Yanzhi on Modern Chinese Literature

否定与批判“言志”诗学, 曾是中国现代文学转型的标志。但从五四新文学开 始, “言志”诗学不仅没有被剔出中国现代文学的审美范畴, 相反, 却借助于西方 话语得到合理的传承。“言”救亡图存的启蒙之“志”, 与“抒”忧国忧民的个人 之“情”, 中国现代文学都未摆脱“志”者“大情”、“情”者“小志”的传统思 维, 具体表现在: 主“思”派提倡文学创作的功利意识, 进而以“志”代“情”回归 “道”统; 主“情”派则提倡文学创作的真情实感, 进而以“情”传“志”, 回归 “道”统。中国现代文学的理论与实践, 虽然涂抹着光怪陆离的“西化”色彩, 但 其重新“释道”与巧妙“言志”的本质特征, 恰恰表明了它对传统文化的价值认同, 而不是简单地抛弃“传统”后走向了“西方”。

关键词: “言志”诗学 “志”与“道” “志”与“情” 古典主义

Rejection and denunciation of the poetics of “yanzhi” (literally “expressing one’s thought or ideals”) was once a marker of Chinese literature’s modern transformation. However, right from the beginning of May Fourth new literature, the poetics of “yanzhi” was not only not cast out of the aesthetic canon of modern Chinese literature but was, on the contrary, legitimately transmitted via Western discourse. Whether modern Chinese writers were expressing enlightenment ideas of saving the nation or voicing their personal feelings for their country and their people, they remained convinced that “zhi” was “feelings” writ large and “feelings” were a lesser form of “zhi.” Specifically, the school stressing the idea that “literature expresses thought” advocated utilitarian literary creation and returned to the traditional Chinese poetics of “yanzhi” by replacing “feelings” with “zhi.” Those stressing the idea that “literature expresses feelings” advocated writing with genuine emotion; they went on to express “zhi” via “feelings,” thus returning to the traditional Chinese way of thought. Both the theory and practice of modern Chinese literature have a strange “Western” tint. Nevertheless, this literature’s essential character of “reinterpreting the ‘dao’ (way)” and sophisticated “expression of thought” or “yanzhi” indicate its value identification with traditional culture rather than the simple abandonment of “tradition” in pursuit of “the West.”     

The Communist Activities of the First International and the Logic of Socialist Party Politics

Against the backdrop of the 19^th century, the First International, guided by Marxism, emerged in the form of the early “International Socialist Federation.” It viewed the seizure of power as the great mission of the proletariat, actively struggled against bourgeois regimes, strongly responded to the call of times for the theoretical self-consciousness and organized struggle of the proletariat, and exerted a profound historical influence on the stirring inauguration and nationally oriented development of the international Communist movement of the 20^th century. From the socialist party political perspective, the First International, once the Communist League, had raised the curtain on socialist party politics, changed the political mode of capitalist party politics’ exclusive world domination through the interactive development of new organizational forms, theoretical viewpoints and political practice. It thus left an abundant historical legacy in terms of ideological creation and practical innovation for the subsequent Second International, the Communist International and the emergence and development of socialist party politics within nation-states. Although its socialist party political practice had an obvious “regional,” “preliminary” and “tentative” nature, the First International had foundation-laying significance and pioneering value for the development of socialist party politics, whether in terms of organizational vehicles, value orientation and activity content, or in terms of ideological guidance, practical patterns and strategic principles.     

Feddersen and Pesendorfer meet Ellsberg

The Condorcet Jury Theorem formalises the “wisdom of crowds”: binary decisions made by majority vote are asymptotically correct as the number of voters tends to infinity. This classical result assumes like-minded, expected utility maximising voters who all share a common prior belief about the right decision. Ellis (Theor Econo 11(3): 865–895, 2016) shows that when voters have ambiguous prior beliefs—a (closed, convex) set of priors—and follow maxmin expected utility (MEU), such wisdom requires that voters’ beliefs satisfy a “disjoint posteriors” condition: different private signals lead to posterior sets with disjoint interiors. Both the original theorem and Ellis’s generalisation assume symmetric penalties for wrong decisions. If, as in the jury context, errors attract asymmetric penalties then it is natural to consider voting rules that raise the hurdle for the decision carrying the heavier penalty for error (such as conviction in jury trials). In a classical model, Feddersen and Pesendorfer (Am Politi Sci Rev 92(1):23–35, 1998) have shown that, paradoxically, raising this hurdle may actually increase the likelihood of the more serious error. In particular, crowds are not wise under the unanimity rule: the probability of the more serious error does not vanish as the crowd size tends to infinity. We show that this “Jury Paradox” persists in the presence of ambiguity, whether or not juror beliefs satisfy Ellis’s “disjoint posteriors” condition. We also characterise the strictly mixed equilibria of this model and study their properties. Such equilibria cannot exist in the absence of ambiguity but may exist for arbitrarily large jury size when ambiguity is present. In addition to uninformative strictly mixed equilibria, analogous to those exhibited by Ellis (Theor Econo 11(3): 865–895, 2016), there may also exist strictly mixed equilibria which are informative about voter signals.

     

The impact of school autonomy and education marketization in the United Kingdom

The Education Reform Act 1988 in England proposed by the Conservative Party caused over 1100 public schools to “opt out” of local school authority control by becoming autonomous grant-maintained schools. Using a regression discontinuity design, this paper finds a causal effect of party control on school autonomy with British local election dataset. That is, a Labour party (not a Conservative party) win would consequently stimulate a considerable increase in local schools opting for autonomy. This could be the first empirical evidence of a remarkable cross-party consensus in education policy, which has so far been stressed only on theoretical grounds. Our findings not only improve the understanding of current government education policy but also suggest the role that government would play in future policy-making process.     

Racial Threat or Racial Contact? How Race Affected Third‐Party Presidential Voting in the Antebellum North*

Objective. In this study, the “racial threat” and “racial contact” hypotheses are evaluated in relation to voting for the Liberty and Free Soil Parties in the North during the 1840s. Methods. Regression models are used to predict the effect of county‐level black populations on Liberty and Free Soil vote percentages in relation to types of employment. Results. Racial threat occurred in high manufacturing counties, but racial contact/threat emerged in more agricultural counties. The effects vary by party and region of the North. Conclusion. The effects of racial context on political behavior during this era are mixed, much like modern political studies have uncovered.     

Self‐reported proficiency in Māori language among those of Māori descent in New Zealand

Abstract

In a national survey in New Zealand (N = 12 992), participants of Māori descent (N = 2936) reported their proficiency in speaking, reading, and writing Māori and in understanding spoken Māori. Only 6–10% reported that they could cope “very well” in these areas while 36–52% reported their proficiency as “no more than a few words or phrases”. There was no evidence of subgroups of Māori with divergent proficiency across oral language or literacy. Six latent classes were fitted but these appeared to lie along a continuum, and analysis employing item response theory (IRT) and factor analysis confirmed this. A simple sum of scores across the four areas correlated very highly with the IRT factor score (r = 0.97). High proficiency was more common among older Māori and females, in the Midland region (lowest in the South), and for those with sole‐Māori ethnicity, followed by multi‐ethnic Māori (seldom seen in those of Māori descent but not ethnicity).     

Assessing the value of state legislative experience and legislative professionalism in national election performance, 1974–2010

State legislative experience and chamber professionalism have been shown to benefit state legislators as they decide and prepare to run for national office in American Congressional elections. Yet, what are the effects of these two factors on national election performance? I test the implications from the literature that state legislative experience and chamber professionalism should impact national election outcomes on all two-party contested elections from 1974 to 2010. I find that state legislative experience enhances candidates’ vote shares, though differently for different candidates. Yet, surprisingly professionalism plays no moderating role. Such effects present at the earlier stages of elections wash out as elections come to a close.     

Do young children preferentially trust gossip or firsthand observation in choosing a collaborative partner?

From early on in ontogeny, young children hear things being said about particular individuals. Here we investigate the ways in which testimony with social content, that is, gossip, influences children's decision‐making. We explored whether five‐year‐old (N = 72) and seven‐year‐old (N = 72) children trust gossip or firsthand observation in a partner choice setting. Seven‐year‐old children preferentially trusted what they had seen firsthand over gossip; five‐year‐old children, in contrast, did not differentiate between these two sources of information. However, five‐year‐old children (but not seven‐year‐olds) generally gave negative information more weight, that is, they showed a “negativity bias.” These results suggest that at around school age, young children become more “epistemically vigilant” about gossip.     

An Analysis of the Psychological Mechanism of Confucius’ Benevolence

讨论中国人的观念系统在很大程度上离不开儒家思想, 分析儒家思想要从孔子开 始。孔子因 “德命” 受挫而形成 “时命” 观, “时命” 观挑战了 “以德配天” 的思 想, 这需要更为本源的终极观来应对。孔子在内外心理框架的互动中, 反思体悟而形 成 “仁” 的终极观。在此理念的支配下, 向内修德凝道而 “内圣”, 向外践行 “仁 政” 而 “外王” , 内外并重以获得充沛丰盈的生命意义感。

关键词:仁 内圣外王 心理机制

The discussion of the conceptual system of the Chinese is, to a large extent, inseparable from Confucian thought, and its analysis should start from Confucius himself. He developed the idea of shiming (时命), or the mandate of the times, after the idea of deming (德命), or the mandate of virtue, encountered repeated setbacks. Shiming challenged the idea that “Heaven is aligned with the virtuous,” and coping with this challenge required an ultimate worldview of a more original nature. Confucius formed his ultimate world view of “benevolence” (ren 仁) through the interaction between his internal and external psychological framework and his reflections and realizations. Gripped by this idea, he cultivated inward virtue and adhered to the Way while outwardly practicing benevolence, with the goal of becoming “a sage within and a king without.” The balancing of the interior and the exterior was the key to enjoying a rich and meaningful life.     

The Social Composition of China's Private Entrepreneurs: Class and Cohort Differences*

On the basis of survey data on Chinese private enterprises over the years, we try to respond to the classic subject of “the social composition of private entrepreneurs (siyingqiyezhu 私营企业主).” In nearly forty years of development, the overall composition of private entrepreneurs has undergone major changes. The group contains a growing proportion of people who have a market background and higher education and are non-political CPCs. On further classifying the occupational mobility of private entrepreneurs into categories such as “xiahai 下海” (jump into business), “gaizhi 改制” (restructuring), “kuajie 跨界” (crossover), “tiaoban 跳板” (springboard) and “caogen 草 根” (grassroots), we find there are significant differences in the occupational mobility of entrepreneurs in large, medium, and small enterprises in terms of what they did before they founded their businesses. In particular, entrepreneurs in large enterprises are more likely to have “jumped into business” from inside the government system or after restructuring, while most small and medium entrepreneurs develop outside the system. Multiple regression and coefficient clustering analysis shows that education level and political status have varying effects on the occupational mobility of entrepreneurs in terms of class and cohort.