Reexamining China's Fertility Puzzle: Data Collection and Quality over the Last Two Decades

China's fertility level has become a matter of considerable debate since the early 1990s. Despite the widespread concern over data quality, a review of the literature reveals little systematic examination of how fertility data are collected, what specific problems they pose, and how they have been used in demographic research. This article examines five major fertility data sources and identifies problems in producing and using fertility data and discusses their implications. Issues relating to China's controversial 2000 census results and the reported low fertility are examined. The analysis concludes that the prevalent uncertainty about fertility levels may not only be related to the problem of data quality, but could also arise from misinterpreting fertility data and exaggerating the problem of undercounting.     

对纵贯数据统计分析的认识

在介绍了纵贯数据的设计思想及优缺点基础上,从统计方法的角度讨论了纵贯数据在社会科学中所能发挥的作用。纵贯数据的优点在于其可以帮助我们进行对总体异质性的识别、对因果机制干预的研究、对因果效应的研究和对状态变换的研究。以一些基于纵贯数据的研究设计为实例,文章阐述了在研究中假设与数据紧密衔接的重要性,以及利用统计方法分析纵贯数据时需要考虑的要点。但由于存在着由人类和人类行为内在变异性导致的这一无法避免的根本性缺陷,纵贯数据并不能解决所有问题。因而在纵贯数据的辅助下,研究者需要对社会现象有更深入的理解,将其进行更合理的概念化,并加以更精准的数据分析。     

The Multidimensionality of Child Poverty: Evidence from Afghanistan

This paper examines multidimensional poverty among children in Afghanistan using the Alkire-Foster method. Several previous studies have underlined the need to separate children from their adult nexus when studying poverty and treat them according to their own specificities. From the capability approach, child poverty is understood to be the lack of freedom to do and to be what children themselves value and have reason to value. The case of Afghanistan is particularly relevant as years of conflict aggravated by several severe droughts, political insecurity, bad governance and ongoing violence have significantly increased poverty in the country. The paper discusses the relevant dimensions when analysing child poverty and uses data from a survey carried out by Handicap International which contains information on dimensions of children’s wellbeing that is typically missing in standard surveys. Ten dimension are considered in this paper: health, care and love, material deprivation, food security, social inclusion, education, freedom from economic and non-economic exploitation, shelter and environment, autonomy, and mobility. Our results show that younger children, those living in rural areas, girls and disabled children are the most deprived.     

The Multidimensionality of Welfare State Attitudes: A European Cross-National Study

When evaluating the various aspects of the welfare state, people assess some aspects more positively than others. Following a multidimensional approach, this study systematically argues for a framework composed of seven dimensions of the welfare state, which are subject to the opinions of the public. Using confirmatory factor analyses, this conceptual framework of multidimensional welfare attitudes was tested on cross-national data from 22 countries participating in the 2008 European Social Survey. According to our empirical analysis, attitudes towards the welfare state are multidimensional; in general, people are very positive about the welfare state’s goals and range, while simultaneously being critical of its efficiency, effectiveness and policy outcomes. We found that these dimensions relate to each other differently in different countries. Eastern/Southern Europeans combine a positive attitude towards the goals and role of government with a more critical attitude towards the welfare state’s efficiency and policy outcomes. In contrast, Western/Northern Europeans’ attitudes towards the various welfare state dimensions are based partly on a fundamentally positive or negative stance towards the welfare state.     

Measuring and Monitoring Poverty and Well-Being: A New Approach for the Synthesis of Multidimensionality

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new approach for the synthesis and analysis of multidimensional poverty and well-being indicators. Our general perspective is inspired by the theoretical foundations of the capability approach and sustainable human development paradigm. The new synthesis of indicators aims at monitoring outcomes of units of interest. Its defining features include: full sensitiveness, continuity, flexibility in substitution between dimensions, and the straightforward interpretation of the results. All these properties are obtained through a transparent and accountable process that is fully open to public scrutiny and reason (as suggested by Amartya Sen). The main contribution of this approach is that the degree of substitutability between dimensions can be directly linked to the general level of well-being of a person, which addresses the so-called “inescapable arbitrariness” issue discussed by Anand and Sen (Concepts of human development and poverty: a multidimensional perspective. Human Development Papers. UNDP, New York, 1997). The new synthesis proposed opens up new possibilities for different types of applications, including monitoring and evaluating development programmes.     

Life Tables with Covariates: Dynamic Model for Nonlinear Analysis of Longitudinal Data

ABSTRACT

Life table models based on nonlinear dynamics of risk factors are developed using stochastic differential Equations for individual changes and on the resulting Fokker-Planck equation to describe population changes. Central to the model is a microsimulation strategy developed as a numerical procedure to represent a mortality effect when analytic approaches are not applicable. The model is applied to the Framingham Heart Study 46-year follow-up data. Life table functions and projections of risk factors are calculated to demonstrate the nonlinear effects on observable quantities over time. A set of statistically significant nonlinear contributions to covariate dynamics is identified. Their synergistic effect on dynamics and use of them as “new” risk factors are discussed. An important advantage of this approach is the ability to study the effects of health interventions at the individual level. This is illustrated in several examples.     

On the Prediction of the Subpopulation Total Based on Spatially Correlated Longitudinal Data

In a special case of the general linear mixed model, one random component obeys a spatial autoregressive process and another a temporal autoregressive process. The population and any affiliations to subpopulations may change in time. The empirical best linear unbiased predictor is derived and may be used even if the sample size in the subpopulation is null in the period of interest. The mean squared error and its estimator are expressed. The accuracy of the predictor and the bias of the mean squared error estimator are addressed through simulations.     

Rethinking Historical Reproductive Change: Insights from Longitudinal Data for a Spanish Town

A set of linked reproductive histories taken from the Spanish town of Aranjuez between 1871 and 1950 is used to address key issues regarding reproductive change during the demographic transition. These include the role of child survival as a stimulus for reproductive change, the use of stopping and/or spacing strategies to achieve reproductive goals, and the timing of change. Straightforward demographic measures are used and robust results are achieved. Initial strategies of fertility limitation are shown to exist but are inefficient, are mostly visible during the latter part of the reproductive period, are designed mostly to protect families from the effects of increases in child survival, and are based almost entirely on stopping behavior. As mortality decline accelerates, strategies become much more efficient, are visible at the outset of married life, include spacing behavior, and eventually lead to important declines in completed family size. The results of this study have implications for our understanding of the demographic transition both in historical Europe and in other regions of the world.     

Using Linked Longitudinal Administrative Data to Identify Social Disadvantage

Social Indicators Research - Administrative data are widely used to construct indicators of social disadvantage, such as Free School Meals eligibility and Indices of Multiple Deprivation, for...     

Effects of Lactation on Post-partum Amenorrhoea: Re-estimation Using Data from a Longitudinal Study in Guatemala

In this paper we re-estimate the effects of breastfeeding patterns on the timing of resumption of menses after controlling for maternal nutrition and maternal stressor variables. The analysis shows that simple hazard models, used on data from a longitudinal study in Guatemala, provide estimates of effects on timing of resumption of menstruation that are (a) comparable to others discussed in the recent literature and (b) generally consistent with hypotheses relating patterns of lactation, maternal nutritional status, and maternal stressors to processes that accelerate (decelerate) resumption of anovulatory cycles.     

中国高龄老人生活自理能力纵向动态研究

利用"中国老年健康长寿跟踪调查"1998年、2000年、2002年的跟踪数据分析中国高龄老人ADL的变动趋势及其影响因素。个体增长模型结果显示,高龄老人ADL状况随年龄增长出现了明显的下降趋势,ADL个体差异十分显著。个体之间的差异解释了ADL总差异的31.13%。经历三次追踪调查的高龄老人ADL均值较高,状况较好,下降速度较慢;基期具有3-4项残障的高龄老人,未来ADL下降最为迅速;基期ADL水平高的高龄老人,ADL下降较慢。从ADL的个体影响因素来看,对于基期ADL水平影响最大的变量是"年龄"、"疾病状况"以及"居住安排"等,而对观测期ADL变动速度影响最大的变量是"年龄"以及"过去是否经常从事体力劳动"等。     

Divorce,Separation, and Housing Changes: A Multiprocess Analysis of Longitudinal Data from England and Wales

This study investigates the effect of marital and nonmarital separation on individuals’ residential and housing trajectories. Using rich data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and applying multilevel competing-risks event history models, we analyze the risk of a move of single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women to different housing types. We distinguish moves due to separation from moves of separated people and account for unobserved codeterminants of moving and separation risks. Our analysis shows that many individuals move due to separation, as expected, but that the likelihood of moving is also relatively high among separated individuals. We find that separation has a long-term effect on individuals’ residential careers. Separated women exhibit high moving risks regardless of whether they moved out of the joint home upon separation, whereas separated men who did not move out upon separation are less likely to move. Interestingly, separated women are most likely to move to terraced houses, whereas separated men are equally likely to move to flats (apartments) and terraced (row) houses, suggesting that family structure shapes moving patterns of separated individuals.     

Polarisation of Non-standard Employment in Europe: Exploring a Missing Piece of the Inequality Puzzle

The rise in non-standard employment inspired many scholars to study the social consequences of these new employment forms. Most research focusses on individuals working non-standard. With the increase in dual earnership, however, we need a household perspective. This study therefore develops the notion of household non-standard employment and applies a polarisation index to examine the distribution of non-standard work over dual earner couples. This polarisation index compares the actual rate of household non-standard employment with a counterfactual rate when non-standard employment would be randomly distributed over households. Drawing on EU-SILC 2011, we define non-standard workers as individuals who worked during the previous year, but not full-year full-time. The results indicate that the levels of polarisation vary considerably across countries. Because especially women do not work full-time, polarisation is highly negative since it is less likely to find clustering of non-standard work within households. This pattern is dominant in Continental European countries, but also observable in Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon countries. On the other hand, in Eastern and Southern European countries, non-standard employment is concentrated in some households, mainly because of the inability of its members to work full-year. Common characteristics of household members known to be associated with non-standard employment, like age and education, explain little of the levels of non-standard employment polarisation.     

Well-Being and Social Capital: Does Suicide Pose a Puzzle?

This paper has a double purpose: to see how well Durkheim’s [1897, Le Suicide (Paris: 1^e edition)] findings apply a century later, and to see if the beneficial effects of social capital on suicide prevention are parallel to those already found for subjective well-being (Helliwell 2003, Economic Modelling 20(2), pp. 331–360). The results show that more social capital and higher levels of trust are associated with lower national suicide rates, just as they are associated with higher levels of subjective well-being. Furthermore, there is a strong negative correlation between national average suicide rates and measures of life satisfaction. Thus social capital does appear to improve well-being, whether measured by higher average values of life satisfaction or by lower average suicide rates. There is a slight asymmetry, since the very high Scandinavian measures of subjective well-being are not matched by equally low suicide rates. To take the Swedish case as an example, this asymmetry is explained by Sweden having particularly high values of variables that have more weight in explaining life satisfaction than suicide (especially quality of government), and less beneficial values of variables that have more influence in explaining suicide rates (Swedes have low belief in God and high divorce rates), because with the latest data and models the Swedish data fit the well-being and suicide equations with only tiny errors. If the international suicide data pose a puzzle, it is more because suicide rates, and their estimated equations, differ greatly by gender, while life satisfaction and its explanations are similar for men and women.     

Longitudinal indicators of the social context of families: beyond the snapshot

Longitudinal indicators are measures of an individual or family behavior, interaction, attitude, or value that are assessed consistently or comparably across multiple points in time and cumulated over time. Examples include the percentage of time a family lived in poverty or the proportion of childhood a person lived in a single-parent family. Longitudinal indicators reflect exposure not at a “snapshot” moment but over the lifecourse and may also be more reliable assessments of the family environment or experience. We highlight potential longitudinal indicators and discuss methodological issues.     

乡镇计生服务站面临的困扰与出路

国务院《计划生育技术服务管理条例》(以下简称条例 )的颁布实施 ,确立了计划生育技术服务机构的合法地位 ,给计划生育技术服务工作带来了新的转机。如何贯彻落实好《条例》 ,严格依法行政 ,抓紧抓好技术服务工作 ,提高服务质量 ,推进计划生育技术服务机构不断健康发展 ,这是当前计划生育部门应当研究和探索的一个重要课题。对此 ,笔者结合基层实际进行探讨。1　乡镇计生服务站面临三大困扰《条例》规定 :“从事计划生育技术服务的机构 ,包括计划生育技术服务机构和从事计划生育技术服务的医疗、保健机构。”在科技发展和市场竞争的条件下 ,…     

A Generalized Estimating Equation in Longitudinal Data to Determine an Efficiency Indicator for Football Teams

Over the years football has attracted enormous interest from various fields of study, attracting attention both for its sporting and social aspects. Professional business operators consider football an important industry with enormous potential both in terms of its size and growth, and also because of indirect benefits due to the popularity gained by investors and management of football teams. The focus of the analysis has been on what characterizes most football clubs, and determines their particular economic and financial needs. The aim of this paper is to establish an efficiency measurement for football team financial resource allocation. In particular, we analysed the impact that the income statement, Net equity and Team value variables have on the points achieved by football teams playing in “Serie A” championship (Italian league). The method used in our study is a generalized estimating equation (GEE) for longitudinal count data. In addition we consider a coefficient of determination in the GEE approach based on Wald Statistics, and we propose a modified Mallow’s Cp for choosing the best model. Finally we propose an AFRSport index based on the differences between observed and theoretical points, in order to identify those teams that efficiently employ their financial resources.