SEEA和NAMEA的比较分析

面对环境与社会经济的不协调发展,各国都意识到可持续发展的重要性。1992年联合国世界环境与发展大会发表了《里约宣言》和《21世纪议程》,此后世界各国根据本国的实际情况制订自己的可持续发展计划。促进可持续消费,构建绿色核算体系,是可持续发展的重要组成部分。挪威、法国、荷兰、美国等国家在这方面做了有益的探索与研究,其中,以联合国统计处公布的综合环境经济核算体系(Integrated Environmental and EconomicAccounting,简称SEEA)和荷兰统计局公布的包含环境账户的国民经济核算矩阵(National Accounting MatrixincludingEnviron…     

建立中国可持续发展指标体系若干问题刍议

 在联合国环境与发展大会通过的重要文件——《21世纪议程》中明确规定：“各国在国家一级和各国际政府组织与非政府组织在国际一级,瑛探讨制定可持续发展的指标的概念,以便建立可持续发展指标。为了确保在卫星账户并最终在国民核算中运用部分此种指标,联合国秘书处统计处必须利用这方面不断积累的经验来从事制定指标的有关工作”。现在,一些国际组织（如世界银行、联合国可持续发展委员会等）和部分国家（如英国）已经建立起可持续发展指标体系的初步框架。我国虽于1996年3月通过了《中国21世纪议程——中国21世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书》,但至今尚未建立起国家一级的可持续发展指标体系。     

关于绿色国民经济核算体系的思考

国民经济核算体系（SNA）被认为是20世纪最重大的发明之一,在1992年6月的联合国世界环境与发展大会通过的《21世纪议程》主题文件中明确规定:“为了实现人类社会经济的可持续发展,主要目标是为了扩大现有国民经济核算体系,将环境和社会因素纳入该体     

环境——经济核算方式初探

1992年6月,在联合国世界环境与发展大会上通过的《21世纪议程》主体文件中明确规定,为了实现人类社会经济的可持续发展,“主要目标为了扩大现有国民经济核算体系,将环境和社会因素纳入该体系,至少所有会员国的核算体系应包括附属自然资源核算制度”.随着国际上“国民经济核算应当反映资源环境因素”日益成为共识,一个如何进行将环境核算纳入国民经济核算体系的实际操作问题已摆到议事日程,成为当代社会经济研究中的一个重点、热点课题.     

基于投入产出表的中国数字经济卫星账户构建

卫星账户作是以国民经济核算体系中心框架为基础，对其某些概念加以修改而建立的附属核算体系。既避免了对中心框架严谨统一性的破坏，又极大地扩展了国民经济核算体系的分析功能。为保持数字经济卫星账户与国民经济核算体系的紧密联系，文章依据国家统计局《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类（2021）》中对数字经济产业的分类标准，基于全国投入产出表对数字经济相关活动进行剥离，从投入产出视角构建中国数字经济卫星账户，并在此基础上对数字经济产业进行生产核算以及产业关联效应分析，以期为中国数字经济卫星账户的编制及国民经济核算体系的完善提供借鉴。     

社会经济统计学的“21世纪议程”——可持续发展统计学刍议

 可持续发展是人类发展的必由之路。1992年联合国环境与发展大会《21世纪议程》的通过和可持续发展战略的开始实施，对统计的实践与理论方法提出了一些列新的要求和挑战。适应新世纪人类发展的需要，把建立可持续发展统计学作为社会经济统计学的“21世纪议程”，这一重大任务已经历史地落在当代统计学家的肩上。     

中国卫生总费用核算体系研究

随着各国核算体系的不断完善,卫生总费用核算已经成为国际公认的用于全面评价国民卫生费用的一种工具.但由于各国的测算口径不同,导致测算结果缺乏国际比较性.为提升中国卫生总费用国内研究的国际性,按照资金来源、分配流向和实际使用三个方面重新调整了中国国民卫生账户核算体系及相关项目,调整后的国民卫生账户核算体系既不会加重现有国民经济核算中心体系负担或打乱该体系,又可通过此账户对所选择的医疗卫生服务领域进行单独核算.     

我国教育核算体系的框架及理论阐释

世界各国都高度重视教育发展,在新时代背景下进行教育活动核算方法的研究有重要的理论与实践意义。本文以联合国教科文组织发布的《国民教育账户方法论》（Methodologyof National Education Accounts 2016,MNEA2016）和联合国《国民账户体系》（System of National Accounts2008,SNA2008）等为基础,讨论我国教育活动核算体系的理论基础与重要范畴,设计账户与核算表通式,构造教育核算指标体系,探讨我国教育核算体系的数据支撑及其与中国国民经济核算体系（China’s System of National Accounts 2016,CSNA2016）的对接问题,以期形成我国教育核算体系的基本范式。     

中国国家统计体系简介(四)--国民经济核算

中国从20世纪50年代起建立的核算体系，基本属于MPS体系。1992年开始采用与联合国SNA体系相衔接的《中国国民经济核算体系(试行方案)》。到1995年，已基本完成了从旧核算体系向新核算体系的转轨。近年来，正在参照联合国1993年版的新SNA进一步改进中国的国民经济核算体系。中国国民经济核算的内容相当丰富，它包括国内生产总值的核算、投入产出核算、资金流量核算、国际收支核算、国民资产核算和编制经济循环账户等内容。由于目前我国国民经济核算的主体和核心内容依然是国内生产总值核算，因此主要介绍国民经济核算方法和资料来源。 …     

可持续发展指标的探讨

人类进入21世纪,实施可持续发展战略已成为世界各国共同选择的道路.可持续发展的定义是“既满足当代人的需要,又不损害子孙后代满足其需求能力的发展”.我国根据全球可持续发展的战略框架文件《21世纪议程》,率先制定《中国21世纪议程》.党的十五大再次重申将可持续发展作为国家发展战略,由此可见,可持续发展在中国已不仅仅是个理论话题,而且是切切实实的行动纲领.实施可持续发展战略需要有相应的指标体系作支撑.按照可持续发展思想对现行统计指标进行审视和扬弃,充分挖掘现有统计资料的价值,从而建     

环境管制与绿色经济效率

针对环境管制与经济效率之间的复杂关系和相关问题,本文结合非期望产出SBM模型提出绿色经济效率非参数条件效率模型,探讨和验证宏观环境管制对绿色经济效率影响的作用效果。研究发现无条件的绿色经济效率都低于条件效率。环境管制对绿色经济效率的影响不仅具有“时滞”性而且具有“非线性”性,随着环境管制程度的加强,绿色经济效率呈先降后升趋势。环境管制在长期对提高绿色经济效率具有促进作用,但它的影响体现在对不同地区和时期具有不同效应,东部地区环境管制对绿色经济效率也具有先负后正的效应,而加强环境管制目前对提高中西部地区的绿色经济效率仍具有抑制作用。     

Theoretical and practical issues in purchasing power parities illustrated with reference to the 1993 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development data

This paper deals first with some theoretical issues in purchasing power parities, including the definition of a generalized class of additive indices, which includes the standard Geary–Khamis and Iklé indices as special cases, and the definition of indicators of price and quantity structure which are independent of the particular units in which quantities are originally expressed. The paper then provides a comparative analysis of the results of applying these techniques to the 1993 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development data and relates the results to underlying features of the price and expenditure data.     

环境规制促进了绿色创新能力吗?——来自中国的经验证据

本文基于国泰安数据库和中国专利数据库的合并数据,以《万家企业节能低碳行动实施方案》(以下简称“节能低碳”政策)作为准自然实验,实证分析了“节能低碳”政策带来的环境规制效应对企业绿色创新能力的影响。研究结果显示,“节能低碳”政策对企业绿色创新能力有显著的促进作用,并且这一结论在一系列稳健性检验和排他性检验后仍然成立。异质性检验表明,“节能低碳”政策对企业绿色创新能力的影响存在异质性,其中对东部和中部地区、技术密集型行业、大型企业和成熟期企业的促进作用更明显,而该效应在国有企业和非国有企业之间没有显著差异。本研究还发现,“节能低碳”政策引致的创新补偿效应大于遵循成本效应,据此从环境规制视角解释了企业绿色创新能力提升的事实与机制。本文的研究为如何合理利用环境政策推进企业绿色创新能力提供了重要的政策启示。     

Robust interval forecasting algorithm based on a probabilistic cluster model

For substantiation of managerial decisions the forecasting results of dynamic indicators are used. Therefore, forecasting accuracy of these indicators must be acceptable. Consequently, forecasting algorithms are constantly improved to get the acceptable accuracy. This paper considers a variant of the method of forecasting binary outcomes. This method allows prediction of whether or not a future value of the indicator exceeds a predetermined value. This method ‘interval forecasting’ was named. In this paper a robust interval forecasting algorithm based on a probabilistic cluster model is proposed. The algorithm’s accuracy was compared with an algorithm based on logistic regression. The indicators with different statistical properties were chosen. The obtained results have shown the accuracy of both the algorithms is approximately similar in most cases. However, the cases when the algorithm based on logistic regression demonstrated unacceptable accuracy, unlike the presented algorithm have been identified. Thus, this new algorithm is more accurate.     

Statistical profiling methods with hierarchical logistic regression for healthcare providers with binary outcomes

Within the context of California's public report of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery outcomes, we first thoroughly review popular statistical methods for profiling healthcare providers. Extensive simulation studies are then conducted to compare profiling schemes based on hierarchical logistic regression (LR) modeling under various conditions. Both Bayesian and frequentist's methods are evaluated in classifying hospitals into ‘better’, ‘normal’ or ‘worse’ service providers. The simulation results suggest that no single method would dominate others on all accounts. Traditional schemes based on LR tend to identify too many false outliers, while those based on hierarchical modeling are relatively conservative. The issue of over shrinkage in hierarchical modeling is also investigated using the 2005–2006 California CABG data set. The article provides theoretical and empirical evidence in choosing the right methodology for provider profiling.     

A spatial structural equation model with an application to area health needs

Indices of population ‘health need’ are often used to distribute health resources or assess equity in service provision. This article describes a spatial structural equation model incorporating multiple indicators of need and multiple population health risks that affect need (analogous to multiple indicators–multiple causes models). More specifically, the multiple indicator component of the model involves health outcomes such as hospital admissions or mortality, whereas the multiple risk component models the impact on the need for area social and demographic indicators, which proxy population-level risk factors for different diseases. The latent need construct is allowed (under a Bayesian approach) to be spatially correlated, though the prior assumed for need allows a mix of spatially structured and unstructured influences. A case study considers variations in need for coronary heart disease (CHD) care over 625 small areas in London, using recent mortality and hospitalization data (the ‘indicators’) and measures of general ill-health, income and unemployment, which proxy variations in population risk for CHD.     

Comparison of GEE1 and GEE2 estimation applied to clustered logistic regression

Generalized estimating equations (GEE) have become a popular method for marginal regression modelling of data that occur in clusters. Features of the GEE methodology are the use of a ‘working covariance’, an approximation to the underlying covariance, which is used to improve the efficiency in estimating the regression coefficients, and the ‘sandwich’ estimate of variance, which provides a way of consistently estimating their standard errors. These techniques have been extended to include estimating equations for the underlying correlation structure, both to improve the efficiency of the regression coefficient estimates and to provide estimates of correlations between units in a cluster, when these are of interest. If the mean structure is of primary interest, then a simpler set of equations (GEE1) can be used, whereas if the underlying covariance structure is of interest in its own right, the use of the more complex GEE2 estimating equations is often recommended. In this paper, we compare the effect of increasing the complexity of the ‘working covariances’ on the variance of the parameter estimates, as well as the mean-squared error of the ‘sandwich’ estimate of variance. We give asymptotic expressions for these variances and mean-squared error terms. We use these to study the behaviour of different variants of GEE1 and GEE2 when we change the number of clusters, the cluster size, and the within-cluster correlation. We conclude that the extra complexity of the full GEE2 approach is not usually justified if the mean structure is of primary interest.     

财政分权和环境规制促进了中国绿色技术创新吗？

基于我国2003-2017年省级面板数据测算财政分权水平和财政分权效率,结合两阶段关联网络DEA测算绿色创新效率、绿色技术研发效率、绿色技术成果转化效率。结合理论模型与实证模型,分析了财政分权、环境规制对我国绿色技术创新的影响。结果表明：从整体上看,财政分权水平、财政分权效率和环境规制都是推动我国绿色创新发展的积极因素,财政分权还通过影响环境规制对绿色技术创新产生积极间接影响;但也导致了地方政府不注重绿色研发的短视行为。从不同时段看,财政分权和环境规制对绿色创新影响发生了变化,一是国际金融危机以后,财政分权加大了经济刺激政策对绿色创新发展的挤出效应,但这在新时代以后得到缓解;二是2013年以后地方环境规制水平提升过快,在一定程度上反而不利于绿色创新。从发展处于不同分位的地区看,财政分权对高、低分位地区绿色创新发展支持都稍显不足,但提高财政分权效率则能显著带动高分位地区发展;环境规制只在高分位地区促进了绿色创新发展,但对绿色创新效率较低的地区而言,过高的环境规制并没有实际意义。     

加拿大资源环境统计与核算的主要内容和方法

 加拿大统计局资源环境核算工作在国际统计领域处于领先水平，并为其他国家开展此项工作提供了许多有益的方法和经验。本文主要对加拿大的资源环境核算总体框架、自然资源存量账户、物质和能源流量账户、环境保护支出账户及工作情况等内容进行了较为全面系统的介绍和论述。     

On the Optimality and Limitations of Buehler Bounds

In 1957, R.J. Buehler gave a method of constructing honest upper confidence limits for a parameter that are as small as possible subject to a pre‐specified ordering restriction. In reliability theory, these ‘Buehler bounds’ play a central role in setting upper confidence limits for failure probabilities. Despite their stated strong optimality property, Buehler bounds remain virtually unknown to the wider statistical audience. This paper has two purposes. First, it points out that Buehler's construction is not well defined in general. However, a slightly modified version of the Buehler construction is minimal in a slightly weaker, but still compelling, sense. A proof is presented of the optimality of this modified Buehler construction under minimal regularity conditions. Second, the paper demonstrates that Buehler bounds can be expressed as the supremum of Buehler bounds conditional on any nuisance parameters, under very weak assumptions. This result is then used to demonstrate that Buehler bounds reduce to a trivial construction for the location‐scale model. This places important practical limits on the application of Buehler bounds and explains why they are not as well known as they deserve to be.