Work-Related Road Safety: An Analysis Based on U.K. Bus Driver Performance

The effects of age and experience on accident involvement for bus drivers were investigated, with special emphasis upon the first years of being an operator, using two methods. First, direct calculations between these variables were undertaken. Thereafter, a variant of the method of quasi-induced exposure (a ratio of culpable versus nonculpable accidents in the population) was used and referred to as the indirect method. These methods yielded fairly similar results, given that the samples used were drawn from the same population but only partly overlapping. It was found that experience had the strongest effect on accidents in the first year of driving, while age had a u-shaped association with accidents, that is, young and old drivers had more accidents, something that was more apparent when experience was held constant. These results show that, for bus drivers, experience is initially more important than age, but after two or three years, the effect is small. Thereafter, age is the more discernible variable, although it is a very weak factor in predicting crash risk.     

Age and Gender Differences in Perceived Accident Likelihood and Driver Competences

Road traffic accident involvement rates show clear age and gender differences which may in part be accounted for by differences in risk perception and perceptions of driving competence. The present study extends and replicates that of Matthews and Moran (1986). Young (18–30 years) and older (45–60 years) male and female drivers responded to a questionnaire on perceived accident risk and driving competence (judgment and skill) with respect to themselves and four target groups, and also rated a series of videotaped driving sequences with respect to likelihood of accident occurrence and perceived driving competence. Results showed that effects of rater characteristics were generally confined to the questionnaire. Younger males were perceived as most likely to experience an accident and were judged to be lower than other groups in driving competence. Younger groups showed little bias against older groups and vice versa , but gender-related bias was apparent. The findings of Matthews and Moran were generally confirmed. The results are discussed with reference to four main issues: (1) demographic bias effects—which are generally weak; (2) stereotyping on the basis of gender and/or age of driver; (3) group-specific bias; (4) self-appraisal bias.     

Do Drivers of Small Cars Take Less Risk in Everyday Driving?

Previously reported observed data on risky everyday driving are brought together and reanalyzed in order to focus on the relation between risky driving and the size of the car being driven, as indicated by car mass. The measures of risky driving include separation between vehicles in heavy freeway traffic and speed on a two lane road. Observed seat belt use provides a third measure of driver risk. Confounding effects arising from the observed association between car mass and driver age are taken into account by segmenting the data into three driver age groups. Driver risk taking is found to increase with increasing car mass for each of these three aspects of everyday driving. The implications of these results with respect to driver fatality rates are discussed in terms of a simple model relating observed risky driving to the likelihood of involvement in a severe crash.     

The Use of Telematics Devices to Improve Automobile Insurance Rates

Most automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policyholders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyze information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a pay‐as‐you‐drive sample of insureds. We include distance traveled per year as part of an offset in a zero‐inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros. We show the existence of a learning effect for large values of distance traveled, so that longer driving should result in higher premiums, but there should be a discount for drivers who accumulate longer distances over time due to the increased proportion of zero claims. We confirm that speed limit violations and driving in urban areas increase the expected number of accident claims. We discuss how telematics information can be used to design better insurance and to improve traffic safety.     

Estimating Fatality Reductions from Increased Safety Belt Use

Fatality reductions from increases in safety belt use are estimated taking into account that drivers who change from being nonusers to being users have lower accident involvement rates than the remaining nonusers, a process referred to as "selective recruitment." Analytical functions are derived which express expected fatality reductions in terms of changes in safety belt use rates from an initial rate. The function parameters are determined by requiring that computed average crash rates for nonusers be 53% higher than the rates for users, a recently determined empirical value. These functions show that, depending on the initial use rate and use rate increase, selective recruitment may increase or decrease expected fatality reductions. However, effects are relatively small, in no case exceeding +/- 5.3%.     

Who by Accident? The Social Morphology of Car Accidents

Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers’ social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road‐accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death.     

Individual differences in working hours, work perceptions and accident rates in veterinary surgeries

This study addresses an under-researched outcome of occupational stress, namely the frequency of accidents at work and car accidents. A large, random sample of 778 vets and their auxiliary personnel was assessed in relation to socio-demographic variables, work perception and accident involvement. The study, involving veterinary practices in Germany, revealed that work-related injuries/accidents experienced during the previous 12-month period were significantly related to individual differences in job-related stress and job satisfaction. The average yearly number of car accidents was predicted by age, working climate and job satisfaction. Furthermore, driving accidents going to or from work during the previous year were calculated against distance travelled. Vets working in excess of 48 h/week displayed significantly more driving accidents when visiting clients. Results indicate heterogeneous correlations both between and within the two categories of car and work accidents, suggesting that these are different phenomena, each with its own associated personal and work factors. Results also suggest that work perceptions may act as intermediary influences on accident rates.     

Individual differences in working hours,work perceptions and accident rates in veterinary surgeries

This study addresses an under-researched outcome of occupational stress, namely the frequency of accidents at work and car accidents. A large, random sample of 778 vets and their auxiliary personnel was assessed in relation to socio-demographic variables, work perception and accident involvement. The study, involving veterinary practices in Germany, revealed that work-related injuries/accidents experienced during the previous 12-month period were significantly related to individual differences in job-related stress and job satisfaction. The average yearly number of car accidents was predicted by age, working climate and job satisfaction. Furthermore, driving accidents going to or from work during the previous year were calculated against distance travelled. Vets working in excess of 48 h/week displayed significantly more driving accidents when visiting clients. Results indicate heterogeneous correlations both between and within the two categories of car and work accidents, suggesting that these are different phenomena, each with its own associated personal and work factors. Results also suggest that work perceptions may act as intermediary influences on accident rates.     

Risk Homeostasis Theory and Traffic Accident Data

The risk homeostasis theory posits, in essence, that a control mechanism analogous to the thermal homeostatic system in warm-blooded animals tends to keep risk per unit time constant, and, as a consequence, the number of traffic accidents per unit time of driving also tends to remain constant, essentially independent of changes in the traffic safety system. It is the purpose of the present research to examine the validity of this claim using a wide variety of traffic accident data. All the data examined are found to be incompatible with the risk homeostasis theory. The only specific field accident data offered in the literature to support the risk homeostasis theory are found to, in fact, refute the theory. The accident data provide evidence that a rich variety of user responses occur. While it is possible for users to collectively respond in such a way that safety benefits are completely cancelled, such a response is not particularly common; it is certainly not universally occurring, as suggested by the risk homeostasis theory. It is concluded that the risk homeostasis theory should be rejected because there is no convincing evidence supporting it and much evidence refuting it.     

The Role of Heavy Drinking in the Risk of Traffic Fatalities

Recent studies have identified a "hard core" of drinking drivers who do not fit a "social" drinker profile and may require medical intervention. This article builds on these studies by quantifying the role of heavy drinking in motor vehicle fatalities. Data on male alcohol-involved fatally-injured drivers (AIFIDs) were obtained from the U.S. Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) for the years 1989–1990 (n = 8876). The AIFIDs were grouped into either a "heavy" or "light" drinking category based on drinking behaviors inferred from prior driving records and blood alcohol concentrations (BAC). The majority of male AIFIDs were between the ages of 20–39 (70%). Sixty-five percent had a BAC of 150 mg/dl or greater, and 41% had a BAC in excess of 200 mg/dl. AIFIDs with high BACs were more likely to have histories of DUI convictions and license suspensions than AIFIDs with low BACs. According to the study's criteria, 73% percent of the AIFIDs could be classified as "heavy" drinkers. There were no driving variables that differentiated the heavy and light drinker groups, indicating that heavy drinking per se is the primary factor that distinguishes the groups. Male alcohol-involved fatally injured drivers are comprised mostly of heavy drinkers who may suffer from serious drinking problems or alcoholism. Successful interventions may require medical treatment as well as punitive criminal justice policies.     

Identifying Dangerous Trucking Firms

The paper develops a statistical procedure for predicting the safety performance of motor carriers based on characteristics of firms and results of two government safety enforcement programs. One program is an audit of management safety practices, and the other is a program to inspect drivers and vehicles at the roadside for compliance with safety regulations. The technique can be used to provide safety regulators with an empirical approach to identify the most dangerous firms and provide a priority list of firms against which educational and enforcement actions should be initiated. The government needs to use such an approach rather than directly observing accident rates because the most dangerous firms are generally small and, despite relatively high accident rates, accidents remain rare events. The technique uses negative-binomial regression procedures on a dataset of 20,000 firms. The definition of poor performance in roadside inspection is based on both the rate of inspections per fleet mile and the average number of violations found during an inspection. This choice was made because selection for inspection has both a random and nonrandom component. The results of the study suggest that both of the government's safety programs help identify the most dangerous firms. The 2.5% of firms that do poorly in both programs have an average accident rate twice that of the mean for all other firms.     

Uncertainty Assessment in the Quantification of Risk Rates of Occupational Accidents

Occupational risk rates per hour of exposure have been quantified for 63 occupational accident types for the Dutch working population. Data were obtained from the analysis of more than 9,000 accidents that occurred over a period of six years in the Netherlands and resulted in three types of reportable consequences under Dutch law: (a) fatal injury, (b) permanent injury, and (c) serious recoverable injury requiring at least one day of hospitalization. A Bayesian uncertainty assessment on the value of the risk rates has been performed. Annual risks for each of the 63 occupational accident types have been calculated, including the variability in the annual exposure of the working population to the corresponding hazards. The suitability of three risk measures—individual risk rates, individual annual risk, and number of accidents—is examined and discussed.     

Learning from Nuclear Accident Experience

Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models and results are compared to earlier graphical and analytical estimates. The models are based on (1) the cumulative number of operating years, (2) the cumulative number of plants built, and (3) accidents (explicitly), with the accident rate distinctly different before and after an accident. The statistical accuracies of the parameters estimated are obtained in analytical form using the Fisher information matrix. Using data on core damage accidents in electricity producing plants , it is estimated that the probability for a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the equivalent frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year, partly due to the increasing population of plants.     

Should I Text or Call Here? A Situation‐Based Analysis of Drivers’ Perceived Likelihood of Engaging in Mobile Phone Multitasking

This study investigated how situational characteristics typically encountered in the transport system influence drivers’ perceived likelihood of engaging in mobile phone multitasking. The impacts of mobile phone tasks, perceived environmental complexity/risk, and drivers' individual differences were evaluated as relevant individual predictors within the behavioral adaptation framework. An innovative questionnaire, which includes randomized textual and visual scenarios, was administered to collect data from a sample of 447 drivers in South East Queensland‐Australia (66% females; n = 296). The likelihood of engaging in a mobile phone task across various scenarios was modeled by a random parameters ordered probit model. Results indicated that drivers who are female, are frequent users of phones for texting/answering calls, have less favorable attitudes towards safety, and are highly disinhibited were more likely to report stronger intentions of engaging in mobile phone multitasking. However, more years with a valid driving license, self‐efficacy toward self‐regulation in demanding traffic conditions and police enforcement, texting tasks, and demanding traffic conditions were negatively related to self‐reported likelihood of mobile phone multitasking. The unobserved heterogeneity warned of riskier groups among female drivers and participants who need a lot of convincing to believe that multitasking while driving is dangerous. This research concludes that behavioral adaptation theory is a robust framework explaining self‐regulation of distracted drivers.     

Mandatory Belt Use and Driver Risk Taking

A study of driver behavior before and after a mandatory seat belt use law in Newfoundland found that the benefits of such legislation are not reduced by riskier driving, as has been suggested by some theorists. On average, belt use in Newfoundland increased from 16% of drivers before the law to 77% after the law. At the same time, the quality of driving changed very little when compared to control groups of Nova Scotia drivers, who were not subject to the law and whose belt use rates did not change. In only one situation did Newfoundland drivers differ from the control group in Nova Scotia: after the belt law, drivers in Newfoundland became relatively more cautious (slower) in their speeds on four-lane expressways. These data confirm the results of earlier less controlled studies that also found no changes in driving behavior following nonvoluntary changes in occupant protection. Since the "risk-compensation" hypothesis predicts such changes, it seems to have no merit in explaining changes in fatalities and injuries after occupant protection legislation.     

Stress and the London Regional Transport train driver

This study was carried out to identify and assess possible sources of stress in London Regional Transport train drivers caused by the introduction of one person operation (OPO) on the Metropolitan Line of the London Underground. OPO involves combining the duties of the driver and guard. The drivers' reactions to this possibly stressful situation were assessed through interview, using a sample of one-third (18) of the affected driven, and by analysis of possible organizational outcomes, such as sickness absence and failures, delays and accidents on the line. No experience of stress by the drivers as a result of OPO was indicated by these data; however, it was possible to make recommendations for improving the driver's cab on the basis of the study.     

Value of Statistical Life and Cause of Accident: A Choice Experiment

The purpose of this study is to compare the value of statistical life (VSL) estimates for traffic, drowning, and fire accidents. Using a choice experiment in a mail survey of 5,000 Swedish respondents we estimated the willingness to pay for risk reductions in the three accidents. In the experiment respondents were asked a series of questions, whether they would choose risk reducing investments where type of accident, cost of the investment, the risk reduction acquired, and the baseline risk varied between questions. The VSLs for fire and drowning accidents were found to be about 1/3 lower than that for traffic accidents. Although respondents worry more about traffic accidents, this alone cannot explain the difference in VSL estimates. The difference between fire and drowning accidents was not found to be statistically significant.     

The Theory of Risk Homeostasis: Implications for Safety and Health

No strategy for countermeasure design or future directions of research in the areas of human behavior which leads to traffic accidents or lifestyle-related diseases can be rationally developed without an acceptable working theory of human behavior in these domains. For this purpose, an attempt has been made to conceptually integrate the available evidence with respect to the role of human behavior in the causation of road accidents. From this integrative effort it would seem that the accident rate is ultimately dependent on one factor only, the target level of risk in the population concerned which acts as the reference variable in a homeostatic process relating accident rate to human motivation. Various policy tactics for the purpose of modifying this target level of risk have been pointed out and the theory of risk homeostasis has been speculatively extended to the areas of lifestyle-dependent morbidity and mortality.     

Increasing Following Headway in a Driving Simulator and Transfer to Real World Driving

ABSTRACT

The effects of a package intervention including prompts, goal setting, feedback, education, and behavioral self-monitoring to increase following headway (decrease tailgating) of three young drivers were evaluated in a simulated driving environment. Another objective of the present study was to determine if the effects of the package intervention would maintain in the simulator and transfer to real-world driving by assessing driving behavior recorded using a black box video camera in the participants’ vehicles. During intervention, drivers were prompted to increase following headway and were provided a specific target for following headway. The participants were asked to estimate following headway after each session and when the session ended were given feedback on actual following headway. The introduction of the treatment package in the simulator was associated with an increase in following headway for all participants. During the reversal phase maintenance occurred for all participants. The effects transferred to real-world driving for all participants. Teaching young drivers in a simulator to increase following headway may be one strategy to decrease the risk of crashes.     

Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul

The Strait of Istanbul, the narrow waterway separating Europe from Asia, holds a strategic importance in maritime transportation as it links the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It is considered as one of the world's most congested and difficult-to-navigate waterways. Over 55,000 transit vessels pass through the Strait annually, roughly 20% of which carry dangerous cargo. In this study, we have analyzed safety risks pertaining to transit vessel maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul and proposed ways to mitigate them. Safety risk analysis was performed by incorporating a probabilistic accident risk model into the simulation model. A mathematical risk model was developed based on probabilistic arguments regarding instigators, situations, accidents, consequences, and historical data, as well as subject-matter expert opinions. Scenario analysis was carried out to study the behavior of the accident risks, with respect to changes in the surrounding geographical, meteorological, and traffic conditions. Our numerical investigations suggested some significant policy indications. Local traffic density and pilotage turned out to be two main factors affecting the risks at the Strait of Istanbul. Results further indicate that scheduling changes to allow more vessels into the Strait will increase risks to extreme levels. Conversely, scheduling policy changes that are opted to reduce risks may cause major increases in average vessel waiting times. This in turn signifies that the current operations at the Strait of Istanbul have reached a critical level beyond which both risks and vessel delays are unacceptable.