突发公共卫生事件协同防控策略的随机演化决策分析

频繁发生的突发公共卫生事件给国家和人民的生命财产带来了严峻挑战,加强对突发公共卫生事件的协同防控成为社会治理中的重要议题。针对突发公共卫生事件中地方政府和社会公众策略互动与行为演化过程中的高度不确定性问题,构建突发公共卫生事件协同防控随机演化博弈模型,分析地方政府和社会公众的演化稳定策略和演化过程。研究发现,地方政府比社会公众演化至稳定策略的速度更快;随机干扰因素会减缓地方政府和社会公众演化至稳定策略的速度;当疫情扩散概率逐渐升高时,对地方政府策略改变的影响较大,其次为社会公众;随着对地方政府和社会公众惩罚系数逐渐加大,地方政府和社会公众更倾向于选择（积极防控,自愿隔离）策略,并且地方政府对惩罚的反应更为强烈。文章所构建的突发公共卫生事件协同防控随机演化决策模型为突发公共卫生事件的科学预防提供理论参考和现实依据。     

从机构职能配置入手完善突发公共卫生事件应急管理体系建设

突发公共卫生事件具有传播的广泛性、危害的复杂性和治理的综合性等突出特征,应急体系既需要先进的诊疗条件和科研技术“硬件”支撑,也需要一套科学、高效、协同的应急响应机制互为“软件”驱动。文章立足我国机构编制管理工作的实际,深入分析目前我国突发公共卫生事件应急管理体系建设存在的不足,从机构职能配置出发,探讨构建科学、高效、协同的突发公共卫生事件应急管理体系的现实途径。     

从碎片化到整体性：重大突发公共卫生事件治理模式重塑

我国在重大突发公共卫生事件治理中出现公共性不彰显、组织结构裂化、治理重心偏误、多元主体协调沟通不畅、资源保障不足等碎片化问题,这与现代重大突发公共卫生事件治理需求存在逻辑错配。整体性治理理论作为一种整体性、系统性取向的治理范式,高度契合了重大突发公共卫生事件的治理需求。为此,从重大突发公共卫生事件治理碎片化的现实样态和整体性治理理论出发,分别从树立整体性价值理念,强化责任意识与公共意识;推进整体性政府改革,实现组织结构的扁平化和组织方式的网络化;重塑全过程并重流程,重视事前预警、事中处置和事后评估每一环节;实现多元主体共治,相互沟通、协商与配合,形成伙伴关系;提高资源整合能力,合理配置资源,完善信息共享机制等入手提出重大突发公共卫生事件整体性治理模式的构建方案。     

基于改进自适应最优分割法的风险预警区间模型研究——针对重大突发公共卫生事件

重大突发公共卫生事件，譬如新型冠状病毒疫情，严重危害着世界各国人民的生命安全，风险预警是构建重大突发公共卫生事件风险预警管控体系的关键所在，而其风险预警区间的精准确定是关乎预警等级的关键问题。基于自适应最优分割模型，引入熵值法计算各指标权重，采用多种函数拟合识别函数特征，构建了改进的自适应最优分割模型，定量科学划分了重大突发公共卫生事件风险预警区间。通过结合实际案例，应用Matlab软件进行仿真，验证了预警区间的吻合度，为构建重大突发公共卫生事件风险预警防控提供了理论参考。     

新冠肺炎疫情对秘书工作的影响及其思考

<正>2020年初,新型冠状病毒肺炎迅速蔓延乃至席卷全国,因其传播速度快、感染范围广、防控难度大等特点成为自新中国成立以来最大的一次重大突发公共卫生事件[1],先后有三十多个省份启动重大突发公共卫生事件一级响应。中央政府亦出台了多项政策措施予以应对。经过长达数月的努力,疫情防控形势逐渐明朗并呈现出积极向好态势,但目前看来依旧无法从根本上彻底消除疫情,     

突发公共卫生事件下的应急运作管理研究

近年来突发公共卫生事件频发,对构建新时期下突发公共卫生事件应急运作管理模式提出了新挑战,产生了探索突发公共卫生事件下应急运作管理规律的新需求。首先,提出突发公共卫生事件的基本概念,指明突发公共卫生事件下应急管理的科学意义和国家战略需求;其次,梳理该领域的国际发展态势及中国发展现状;最后,据此分析和凝练该领域近期主要研究方向和典型科学问题。研究结果表明,突发公共卫生事件下的应急运作管理研究主要内容包括：突发公共卫生事件的风险源识别、演化规律、传播预测模型和预警方法,基于数字孪生技术的公共卫生事件控制理论和策略,应急管理多主体、多因素耦合理论和策略,应急物资生产管理和调度,应急物资储备管理和策略,应急物资物流配送体系构建及优化,应急物资供需匹配及供应链理论。     

海南省突发公共事件的现状及政府应对措施

现阶段海南省存在的突发公共事件主要有自然灾害、安全生产事故、突发公共卫生事件、突发社会安全事件四种。近年来,海南省突发公共事件的政府管理取得了一系列成效。突发公共事件固然具有突发性,但也是可以预防的,因此政府应积极扮演主导型角色,进一步提升应对突发性公共事件的能力,可通过事件前的日常管理、事件中的应急处理和事件后的恢复治理,最终实现对突发公共事件的有效管理。     

COVID-19背景下基于IMB模型的中老年人在线健康信息搜寻行为影响机制研究

COVID-19对中老年人的健康造成了巨大冲击，疫情期间中老年人对于健康信息的需求及在线健康信息搜寻行为的频率显著增加。为探究COVID-19背景下，中老年人在线健康信息搜寻行为的内在机理和影响因素，本文基于信息-动机-行为技巧模型(IMB模型)，选择COVID-19健康知识、自我感知老化、自我效能、感染人数、隔离程度和在线健康信息搜寻行为6个变量构建结构方程模型，通过收集到的350份有效问卷，进行了实证研究。研究结果表明，除了3条调节效应的假设不成立外，其余5条假设均成立。本研究为今后在突发公共卫生事件中解释中老年人的在线健康信息搜寻行为提供了依据。     

基于鲁棒优化的突发公共卫生事件精准筛查策略研究

“精准筛查”是落实突发公共卫生事件精准防控工作的基础保障和重要手段，但是如何科学合理地制定突发公共卫生事件精准筛查策略尚未开展深入研究。本文根据传染病传播机理，将待检测群体进行分类，引入“检测效用”刻画各类人群在不同时间检测对突发公共卫生事件传播扩散的抑制程度，建立以检测效用最大化为目标的鲁棒优化模型，并将其转化为易求解的鲁棒等价模型，确定最优的筛查方案。最后通过算例仿真验证模型及其转化方法的可行性和有效性，为突发公共卫生事件的精准筛查策略提供了理论指导和决策支持。     

公共危机下地方党政领导干部的综合治理能力及其提升路径研究

结合当前正在发生的新冠肺炎疫情可以看到,当前突发公共危机事件对地方党政领导干部的治理能力建设带来了新的挑战。因此,地方党政领导干部需要强化风险防范能力、预判决策能力、执行保障能力、统筹协调能力、引导学习能力,以妥善应对突发公共危机事件。具体而言,应树立风险防控意识,建立应急责任机制;积极运用技术手段,提升风险处置水平;完善应急管理培训,锻造危机应对能力;强化应急素质测评,夯实能力建设机制。     

重大传染病疫情演化情境下应急物资配置决策建模分析:以新冠肺炎疫情为例

基于对新冠肺炎疫情时空分布的分析,从时段、关键事件、传播动力学、空间分布、感染规模、信息特征、医疗资源等7个维度构建了重大传染病疫情演化的5种情境,提出了各种情境下需要解决的5个关键应急物资配置决策问题。综合考虑应急物资配置的空间、信息、物资、供应、需求和网络等特性,分析了每一个决策问题进行建模优化的关键因素。基于这些关键因素构建了一个多周期贝叶斯序贯决策模型,给出了求解步骤和解析解,并结合武汉疫情进行了算例分析,验证了模型的有效性。在重大传染病疫情演化情境下,综合考虑这些关键因素,应用贝叶斯决策分析进行应急物资配置决策建模有利于建立更加符合实际的决策模型,减少决策损失。     

Collaboration outcomes in a public sector: impact of governance,leadership, interdependence and relational capital

Collaboration between public agencies is critical to address social issues effectively. The main objective of this research was to identify the factors that lead to successful achievement of desired collaboration outcomes that could eventually lead to societal outcomes. The factors identified were: transformational leadership, governance, interdependence, and relational capital. An integrated framework was developed based on collaboration governance framework (CGF) of Ansell and Gash (J Public Adm Res Theory 18:543–571, 2008). The CGF framework has integrated the following four broad variables that are responsible for achieving the desired collaboration outcomes: starting conditions, institutional design, leadership, and collaborative process. The study was conducted in Malaysia by sending questionnaires to 500 officers in various ministries who were involved in planning, formulating, and implementing public policies. The main findings of this study are: (1) transformational leadership influences governance, interdependence, relational capital, and collaboration outcomes; (2) governance has impact on relational capital, interdependence, and collaboration outcomes; (3) relational capital and interdependence result in positive collaboration outcomes; (4) dimensions of governance are inter-related; and (5) interdependence and relational capital are strongly correlated. This research adds significantly to the literature on collaborative governance. The implications and limitations of the study are discussed.     

Interactions among the human and organizational factors within the public sector regarding epidemic prevention and control

The management of human and organizational factors (HOFs) within the public sector directly concerns the efficacy of epidemic prevention and control (EPC). Insufficient examination of such HOFs has led to defective countermeasures. This study attempts to comprehensively identify the HOFs within the public sector critical to EPC and investigate their interactions with the weighted network theory. A total of 55 HOFs were identified, and their interactions were assessed and visualized in the Chinese context. Then, the established weighted network was analyzed to investigate the interactions and diagnose critical factors and sectors. The analysis shows that there are strong interactions among HOFs, and that the human and organizational risks emerging from administrative departments of public health, centers for disease control and prevention, and medical institutions act as the key risk sources in the complex interconnected EPC system, exacerbating risk and causing a significant domino effect. It is recommended that the authorities devote more resources to the core sectors and endeavor to reinforce those critical HOFs by implementing closer risk communication, collaboration, and response. This study may deepen and broaden the authorities’ awareness and understanding of interactions among HOFs regarding epidemic mitigation, and strengthen their capacity to perceive, evaluate, and manage these factors in a proactive and effective way, thereby facilitating the success of EPC.     

COVID-19疫情下一种新的地铁平峰运营策略

地铁在城市交通中发挥着重要作用。然而，在新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情下，地铁的运营出现了包括消毒、限流及出行独立等多重约束。错峰出行成为了众多城市地铁运营过程中的必然选择。如何既满足居民的基本出行需求，为顺利实现复工复学提供交通支持，又能有效降低乘客感染病毒的风险与追踪密切接触者的成本成为了城市地铁运营的新目标。本文通过对北京地铁运营现状及居民的出行规律分析发现，在新型冠状病毒疫情下，地铁运营过程中存在出行需求与地铁运力不匹配，复工复产与疫情防控，乘客交叉出行数量过多等难题，并针对以上难题提出了分时段复工出行与周末可复工在内的复杂指派模型。这一指派模型不仅实现了城市关键地铁站点平峰人流量、降低疫情传播风险及追踪难度的目标，同时通过模型目标函数与约束条件的灵活修改可实现更为复杂的乘坐地铁复工复产目标。本文所提出的模型在复杂周期性平峰问题中具有较强的推广应用价值。     

Risk Governance for Mobile Phones,Power Lines,and Other EMF Technologies

Power‐frequency electric and magnetic fields (EMFs) have been present in industrialized countries since the late 19th century and a considerable amount of knowledge has been accumulated as to potential health effects. The mainstream scientific view is that even if there is a risk, it is unlikely to be of major public‐health significance. EMFs from cellular communications and other radio‐frequency technologies have increased rapidly in the last decade. This technology is constantly changing, which makes continued research both more urgent and more challenging. While there are no persuasive data suggesting a health risk, research and particularly exposure assessment is still immature. The principal risk‐governance issue with power frequencies is how to respond to weak and uncertain scientific evidence that nonetheless causes public concern. For radio‐frequency electromagnetic fields, the issue is how to respond to large potential consequences and large public concern where only limited scientific evidence exists. We survey these issues and identify deficits in risk governance. Deficits in problem framing include both overstatement and understatement of the scientific evidence and of the consequences of taking protective measures, limited ability to detect early warnings of risk, and attempted reassurance that has sometimes been counterproductive. Other deficits relate to the limited public involvement mechanisms, and flaws in the identification and evaluation of tradeoffs in the selection of appropriate management strategies. We conclude that risk management of EMFs has certainly not been perfect, but for power frequencies it has evolved and now displays many successful features. Lessons from the power‐frequency experience can benefit risk governance of the radio‐frequency EMFs and other emerging technologies.     

Integrative leadership for collaborative governance: Civic engagement in Seattle

This article distills concepts and tools from the literatures on civic engagement, collaborative management, and conflict resolution into a parsimonious framework of tactics and constructs for integrative leadership. Using these tactics and constructs to compare cases of civic engagement drawn from the administration of Seattle Mayor Norman Rice (1990–98), the article demonstrates the framework's analytic potential for scholars and its strategic relevance for public leaders. The comparison of the cases suggests that the framework enables scholars and practitioners to distinguish meaningful changes in key dimensions of collaborative governance related to leadership tactics, stake holders' interpretations, and results. The conclusion proposes six hypotheses and explores theoretical implications for future research.     

A national risk analysis model (NRAM) for the assessment of COVID-19 epidemic

COVID-19 has caused a critical health concern and severe economic crisis worldwide. With multiple variants, the epidemic has triggered waves of mass transmission for nearly 3 years. In order to coordinate epidemic control and economic development, it is important to support decision-making on precautions or prevention measures based on the risk analysis for different countries. This study proposes a national risk analysis model (NRAM) combining Bayesian network (BN) with other methods. The model is built and applied through three steps. (1) The key factors affecting the epidemic spreading are identified to form the nodes of BN. Then, each node can be assigned state values after data collection and analysis. (2) The model (NRAM) will be built through the determination of the structure and parameters of the network based on some integrated methods. (3) The model will be applied to scenario deduction and sensitivity analysis to support decision-making in the context of COVID-19. Through the comparison with other models, NRAM shows better performance in the assessment of spreading risk at different countries. Moreover, the model reveals that the higher education level and stricter government measures can achieve better epidemic prevention and control effects. This study provides a new insight into the prevention and control of COVID-19 at the national level.     

Hurricane Katrina, the Crisis of Leadership, and Chaos Management: Time for Trying the ‘Surprise Management Theory in Action’

Four years have gone by since the historic Hurricane Katrina hit and drowned the city of New Orleans and caused a massive crisis of, and a global case of grand failure in, governance, leadership, and public management. Advancing on an earlier work published in Public Administration Review (Farazmand 2007), in which a global case of grand failure was established with several lessons drawn for future crisis management, this article argues further for developing and applying a theory of ‘surprise management’ to manage future crises and chaotic situations. Crises are borne out of natural and human made disasters, catastrophes, revolutions, and rapidly changing emergencies. Surprise management is the best approach to managing or coping with crises and crisis driven emergencies.