从伊拉克到阿富汗：美国反恐战略评估

奥巴马执政以来,美国反恐战争重心转移到阿富汗。与小布什不同,奥巴马反恐面临三重挑战,即振兴国内经济、结束反恐战争以及应对新兴大国群体的崛起。阿富汗战争久拖不决,奥巴马增兵重蹈前苏联覆辙,陷入泥潭而难以自拔,伊拉克战争的混乱局面继续在阿富汗延续,成为消耗美国力量的另一大困局。2010年中期选举败北之后,奥巴马的权力基础被削弱。在反恐战争第二个十年,阿富汗战争与美国经济的衰弱一道将继续加速美国在全球的衰落。     

美国在伊拉克战略利益得失分析

2003年以来,美国为发动伊拉克战争和战后控制伊拉克局势而付出沉重的军事、政治和经济代价,但收获也不小;美国虽因输掉道义制高点而遭受挫折,但却实现了战略目标,甚至有意外收获。概括而言,美国的7年半伊战有得有失,得大于失,以前所未有的态势在中东全面得手。认识到这一点,对判断伊战引发的中东变局现状及走向,十分重要。     

美国在伊拉克战略利益得失分析

2003年以来,美国为发动伊拉克战争和战后控制伊拉克局势而付出沉重的军事、政治和经济代价,但收获也不小;美国虽因输掉道义制高点而遭受挫折,但却实现了战略目标,甚至有意外收获。概括而言,美国的7年半伊战有得有失,得大于失,以前所未有的态势在中东全面得手。认识到这一点,对判断伊战引发的中东变局现状及走向,十分重要。     

伊拉克战争后的中东战略格局

美国发动的伊拉克战争是美国试图建立美国控制下的单极世界的第一场战争．美国在取得战争的胜利后，将在中东建立美国主导下的中东格局，并加紧实施其全球战略．中东政治力量在战后纷纷重组，尤以伊朗的海湾安全战略和以色列的中东超级大国地位确立最为典型。美国主导下的中东虽不会发生大的战争，但中东依旧是动荡之源，未来走势充满变数．     

伊拉克战争后的中东战略格局

美国发动的伊拉克战争是美国试图建立美国控制下的单极世界的第一场战争.美国在取得战争的胜利后,将在中东建立美国主导下的中东格局,并加紧实施其全球战略.中东政治力量在战后纷纷重组,尤以伊朗的海湾安全战略和以色列的中东超级大国地位确立最为典型.美国主导下的中东虽不会发生大的战争,但中东依旧是动荡之源,未来走势充满变数.     

解读美国反恐兵力部署政策调整

撤兵伊拉克和增兵阿富汗是奥巴马政府恢复美国全球领导地位的重要组成部分.伊拉克战争缺乏合法性,美国在伊拉克的军事存在本身成为伊拉克局势恶化的原因之一,撤兵主要是稳定局势的需要;阿富汗战争虽具一定的合法性,但反恐形势趋于严峻,增兵阿富汗则主要是防止阿富汗和巴基斯坦成为恐怖主义的策源地.从长远来看,美不会放弃在伊拉克和阿富汗的既得地缘战略利益,美在两国的军事存在将成为美全球基地体系的一部分.     

从伊拉克战争看美国中东战略之变化及战后中东格局

伊拉克战争是海湾战争后中东地区最重要的政治事件，它标志着美国中东战略正在发生重大转折．当前的美国领导层对美国在中东地区利益的认识发生了很大变化，意识形态色彩更为浓厚，推行民主成为关系到美安全核心利益．伊战打破了中东地区原有的力量平衡，战后的中东格局面临新一轮重组．     

从伊拉克战争看美国中东战略之变化及战后中东格局

伊拉克战争是海湾战争后中东地区最重要的政治事件,它标志着美国中东战略正在发生重大转折.当前的美国领导层对美国在中东地区利益的认识发生了很大变化,意识形态色彩更为浓厚,推行民主成为关系到美安全核心利益.伊战打破了中东地区原有的力量平衡,战后的中东格局面临新一轮重组.     

美国反恐战争第三阶段的政策

伊战后，美国开始修正其原订反恐第三阶段目标，制定了“小心谨慎但又不能无所作为”的新对策。本丈就其缘由及新对策的缺陷等问题作一剖析。     

反恐与美国安全战略

9·11前美国的安全战略小布什政府上台后,美国国内新保守主义势力抬头,在他们看来,中国的崛起将成为对美国利益的主要威胁,一旦中国成为美国的主要战略对手,就如同来自波斯湾的能源供给被切断一样,会切实损害美国的国家利益。美国在东亚驻军10万,大部分费用由驻在国负担,使美国以较小的代价保持了在该地区的优势地位。美国在亚洲成功的关键在于有着强大的联盟体系,而一旦亚洲出现新的霸权,美国的这种优势地位就将受到     

21st Century American Military Families: A Review in the Context of the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq

This article has three interrelated objectives designed to highlight military family studies in the context of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Often referred to collectively as “the war on terror,” Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan and Operation Iraqi Freedom represent the most comprehensive wars fought with an all‐volunteer force since the nation's independence. I review the literature on American military families with an emphasis on the challenges facing military families during these operations. First I provide coverage of issues specific to military marriages and then address the research on children of military families. The article ends with an argument for scholars to take a more integrated approach to the study of military families that would help break down the current state of family scholarship and military family scholarship as parallel lines of inquiry.     

美对伊战争目的与伊重建

美英于3月20日对伊发动了战争,5月1日,布什总统宣布在伊的"大规模战斗"已经结束.至此,美结束了其"改造"伊拉克的第一阶段行动;第二阶段的工作是重建和掌控伊拉克,从中获取丰厚的经济利益;第三阶段是在伊建立美式民主制度,作为样板供中东各国效仿.但战后,伊社会状况混乱,民不聊生,伊重建将面临诸多困难.     

美对伊战争目的与伊重建

美英于3月20日对伊发动了战争，5月1日，布什总统宣布在伊的“大规模战斗”已经结束。至此，美结束了其“改造”伊拉克的第一阶段行动；第二阶段的工作是重建和掌控伊拉克，从中获取丰厚的经济利益；第三阶段是在伊建立美式民主制度，作为样板供中东各国效仿。但战后，伊社会状况混乱，民不聊生，伊重建将面临诸多困难。     

Iraq,Afghanistan, and rethinking the post-heroic turn: Military decorations as indicators of change in warfare

This article compares the awarding patterns of the two senior Anglophone military decorations, the British/Commonwealth Victoria Cross and the American Medal of Honor, to challenge arguments that a shift to ‘post-heroic’ warfare has been in progress in Western societies since 1990. Despite the two decorations being independent of each other, each born of a particular military, political, and social context in their respective parent societies, the article reveals strong consistencies across the two. These include common understandings of military heroism centred on infantry- rather than machine-intensive combat, and a shared neglect of armoured, aerial, and naval combatants. Crucially, the medal data suggests that, despite academic suggestions to the contrary, there was no discernible shift towards ‘post-heroism’ in the post-Cold War era. Such a shift, however, is observable between 1916 and 1920, suggesting that the ‘new Western way of war’ began far earlier than is often suggested.     

How Migrant Resource Centres affect migration decisions: Quasi-experimental evidence from Afghanistan,Bangladesh, Iraq and Pakistan

Several Migrant Resource Centres (MRCs) have been set up in South Asia jointly by national governments of origin and destination countries. Their objectives include encouragement of potential migrants to seek regular rather than irregular routes and to ensure the safety of those migrating, regardless of status. Of theoretical note, their activities utilise innovative, highly personalised counselling. This article provides quasi-experimental evidence of the effect of four activities – telephone and online counselling, and college outreach and pre-departure sessions – on 2215 randomly allocated users of the MRCs' services across six MRCs in four countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iraq and Pakistan. The effects are a large reduction in self-reported likelihood of migrating irregularly, and a strong increase in awareness of safe options and who to contact for assistance whilst migrating. The effects are consistent across activity type and MRC location, although magnitudes vary. These findings have implications for our understanding of how the decision to migrate is made, what interventions are effective and why.