Risk communication and attitude change: Taiwan's national debate over nuclear power

This article reports the first analysis of the effects of a national risk-communication program that disseminated the facts about the risks associated with nuclear power plants. It relies upon a unique set of circumstances in Taiwan. The state-operated power corporation sponsored a national debate in an effort to promote greater public consensus on the need for a fourth nuclear power plant. This analysis uses statedrisk perceptions and attitudes toward the plant to evaluate the effect of the debate. The results are based on a panel of households interviewed before and after the debate. They suggest that the debate did not reduce respondents' perceived risks from nuclear power and had little perceptible effect on the attitude changes of our sample. The only systematic influences detected on the observed attitude changes imply that respondents reacted counter to the debate's objectives, and thus the debate seems likely to continue to erode support for the new plant.The authors are, respectively, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Economics, Academic Sinica; and University Distinguished Professor of Economics, North Carolina State University, and Resources for the Future University Fellow. Thanks are due Jin Long Liu for his excellent research assistance in developing these results, to Kip Viscusi for constructive comments, and to Barbara Scott for her helpful editing of earlier drafts of this article. Partial support for Smith's research was provided by National Science Foundation grant SES-8911372.     

A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discounting

We conduct an experiment to investigate the degree to which deviations from exponential discounting can be accounted for by the hypothesis of hyperbolic discounting. Subjects are asked to choose between an earlier or later payoff in a series of 40 choice questions. Each question consists of a pair of monetary amounts determined by compounding a given base amount at a constant rate per period. Two bases (8 and 20 dollars), three compounding rates (low, medium and high) and three delays (2, 4, and 6 weeks) are each used. There are also 2 initial periods (Today and 2 weeks) and there are two separate questionnaires, one with lower “realistic” compounding rates and the other with higher compounding rates, typical of those used in previous studies. We analyze the detailed patterns of choice in 6 groups of 6 related questions each (in which the base and rate is fixed but the initial period and delay varies), documenting the frequency of patterns consistent with exponential discounting and with hyperbolic discounting. We find that exponential discounting is the clear modal choice pattern in virtually all cases. Hyperbolic discounting is never the modal pattern (except in the sense that constant discounting is a special case of hyperbolic discounting). We also estimate a linear probability model that takes account of individual heterogeneity. The estimates show substantial increases in the probability of choosing the later option when the compounding rate increases, as one would expect. There are small, sometimes significant, increases in this probability when the delay is increased or the initial period is in the future. Such behavior is consistent with hyperbolic discounting, but can account for only a small proportion of choices. Overall, deviations from exponential discounting appear to be due to error, or to other effects not accounted for by hyperbolic discounting. Principal among these is an increase in later choices when the base is larger.     

Using Promotores Programs to Improve Latino Health Outcomes: Implementation Challenges for Community-Based Nonprofit Organizations

ABSTRACT

Promotores are community lay health workers who provide outreach and services to Latinos. Little research on the promotores programs exists, and the focus of this article is to identify the challenges faced by community-based nonprofits when implementing promotores programs. To explore this type of program, telephone interviews were conducted with 10 promotores academic experts and nonprofit executives. The results suggest that implementation challenges fall into three major categories: the lack of standardized information on promotores programs, labor issues, and organizational costs. Future recommendations made in the article highlight promotores recruitment and retention strategies and the development of a clearinghouse of programmatic implementation information for community-based nonprofits.     

Is Time-Discounting Hyperbolic or Subadditive?

Subadditive time discounting means that discounting over a delay is greater when the delay is divided into subintervals than when it is left undivided. This may produce the most important result usually attributed to hyperbolic discounting: declining impatience, or the inverse relationship between the discount rate and the magnitude of the delay. Three choice experiments were conducted to test for subadditive discounting, and to determine whether it is sufficient to explain declining impatience. All three experiments showed strong evidence of subadditive discounting, but there was no evidence of declining impatience. I conclude by questioning whether hyperbolic discounting is a plausible account of time preference.     

Estimating discount rates for environmental quality from utility-based choice experiments

We estimate rates of time preference using a utility-based choice experiment administered to a nationally representative sample of 2,914 respondents. For the full sample, the rate of time preference is very high for immediate benefits and drops off substantially thereafter, which is inconsistent with exponential discounting but consistent with hyperbolic discounting. Estimates of the hyperbolic discounting parameter range from 0.48 to 0.61. Visitors to water bodies have low rates of discount but exhibit hyperbolic discounting, whereas those who do not visit have consistently high rates of discount and low valuations of water quality.     

Evaluating the Senior Companion Program: a mixed-method approach

This article reports on a mixed-method assessment of the Senior Companion Program (SCP), a federal program which provides volunteer opportunities with small stipends to low-income older adults, 60 years of age and older, who provide companionship and offer assistance to frail community elders. Through four standardized scales and open-ended questions regarding the impact of the SCP in their lives, 34 Senior Companion volunteers and 32 of their clients were interviewed. Informants reported relatively large social networks and low levels of depression and loneliness. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data revealed the benefits of the program for both volunteers and their clients. Themes emerging from the rich narratives included: companionship, independence, reduced anxiety, giving, and rewards. The article concludes with a suggested brief evaluation instrument that directors of SCP programs, and other similar programs, can use to collect data on the impact of their program--something that is required, but often difficult to do.     

Welfare judgments and future generations

The author argues that long-range welfare policies - policies designed to provide significant, widespread, continuing benefits to future generations, remote as well as near, at some cost to ourselves - cannot be justified by appeal to the welfare of remote future generations. He questions whether they can be justified at all. The problem is that the failure to adopt such a policy would not make any of our distant descendants worse off that he would otherwise be, since had the policy been adopted, he would not even have existed. These considerations also bring out a conflict between utilitarian and Paretian principles.     

The Model Development Dissertation

ABSTRACT

Asset-building programs, such as Individual Development Account (IDA) programs within social service agencies, assist low-income employed clients in building credit, purchasing affordable assets, and gaining wealth. This longitudinal exploratory study examines the credit outcomes of IDA programs to add to the knowledge concerning the effects of IDAs as an asset-building tool. Data were analyzed using a convenience sample of IDA participants and nonparticipants (N = 164), and the results indicated that initial credit score and history are associated with program participation. However, results also suggested that initial credit score is not a meaningful indicator of program completion, time to completion, or type of asset purchased for participants. Those who completed the IDA program within 2 years experienced the highest credit gains. Future research with larger samples is needed to further assess the impact of credit on program participation and completion and on whether credit gains are sustained.     

On the functional form of temporal discounting: An optimized adaptive test

The tendency to discount the value of future rewards has become one of the best-studied constructs in the behavioral sciences. Although hyperbolic discounting remains the dominant quantitative characterization of this phenomenon, a variety of models have been proposed and consensus around the one that most accurately describes behavior has been elusive. To help bring some clarity to this issue, we propose an Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO) method for fitting and comparing models of temporal discounting. We then conduct an ADO experiment aimed at discriminating among six popular models of temporal discounting. Rather than supporting a single underlying model, our results show that each model is inadequate in some way to describe the full range of behavior exhibited across subjects. The precision of results provided by ADO further identify specific properties of models, such as accommodating both increasing and decreasing impatience, that are mandatory to describe temporal discounting broadly.     

Factors Associated with Employee Stress in Psychiatric Rehabilitation: Identifying Vulnerability and Resilience

ABSTRACT

Use of sick days related to mental stress and burnout is a growing problem in Germany. Since stress is related to work demands, there is a substantial need for suitable workplace health promotion programs. This study identifies several organizational and personal stress predictors and presents a predictive model for workers in the field of psychiatric rehabilitation. A cross-sectional design was utilized to collect the self-ratings of employees (n = 243) who typically work with patients. Univariate analyses show, overall, above average stress scores, below average scores in occupational self-efficacy, and a much higher proportion of a gratification crisis (that is, insufficient reward for work performance) compared to other people employed in health care. A multivariate model for predicting the heightened stress indicates the supposed pathogenetic and salutogenetic main effects for organizational variables, such as gratification crisis, and personal variables, such as occupational self-efficacy as well as an interaction of both types of variables. High occupational self-efficacy can attenuate the effect of an existing gratification crisis. Workplace health promotion programs in this field should address organizational and personal variables, in particular occupational self-efficacy and gratification crisis. Future research should focus on interaction effects based on a person-environment-interaction model.     

Non-Statutory Mental Health Social Work in Primary Care: A Chance for Renewal?

Correspondence to Malcolm T. Firth, Honorary Research Fellow & Senior Psychiatric Social Worker, 'DEAL', Department of Psychiatric Social Work, 12th Floor, Mathematics Building, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK. E-mail: malcolm.firth{at}mhsc.manchester.nhs.uk Summary The current status of evidence-based practice in the field ofmental health has led some to question the potential for innovationif social work practice is organizationally proscribed or reducedto a dogged adherence to methodological orthodoxy. Conversely,social work's value base is esteemed disproportionately to itsevidence base. Changing service contexts in the UK, particularlythe emergence of Primary Care Trusts as gatekeepers and commissionersof health and social care services, are providing opportunitiesfor social work to develop a new presence and purpose. The authorsdescribe their work in a small-scale service based in primarycare that anticipated these opportunities, by a retrospectivestudy of 120 cases. A new evidence base that derives directlyfrom practice is suggested as a way forward for social workeducation and training, as well as for service and professionaldevelopment.     

Discounting statistical lives

Benefit-cost analysis of government projects that reduce health risks over an extended period of time requires an estimate of the value of a future life. This in turn requires a discount rate. We suggest and carry out a method to estimate the discount rate using observations on discrete choices between projects with different time horizons. This method is implemented in a survey context. For our primary example, the estimated median discount rate is close to the market rate. A substantial proportion of the sample is estimated to have quite low discount rates. We provide some evidence that discount rates may differ for different types of risks.This research was supported in part by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement in Environmental Economics Research CR-813557-01-0. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We would like to thank Paul Portney for bringing the importance of discounting statistical lives to our attention, and John Conlisk, Maureen Cropper, Mark Machina, Robert Mitchell, Peter Navarro, and Walter Oi for helpful comments.     

Does Area Team Organization Make a Difference?

Correspondence to Roger Fuller, Senior Research Fellow, University of Stirling, Social Work Research Centre, Stirling FK94LA, Scotland Summary The paper describes early stages of a programme of researchdesigned to investigate the effects of different ways of organizingsocial work teams. Initially conceived as an attempt to studythe relative effectiveness of specialist and generic team organization,the focus has been broadened to encompass a range of wider andsometimes cross-cutting organizational variables. After a briefreview of attempts to specify organizational characteristicsand of the methodological problems they pose to the researcher,a preliminary study is reported. This compared services to theelderly delivered by teams exemplifying some of the more prominentorganizational types. The study tentatively identifies a numberof factors which distinguished between teams in social workactivities and in rudimentary measures of client outcome. Thedimensions of further work which would fill out these earlyfindings and explore further organizational effects are sketched.     

Discount rates and risky sexual behaviors among teenagers and young adults

This article examines the relationship between personal discount rates and sexual behaviors in a sample of teenagers and young adults. We find that higher discount rates (an indication of less willingness to forego current consumption for future consumption) are significantly associated with a range of sexual behaviors, including ever having sex, having sex before age 16 years, and past or current pregnancy. These associations are consistent with previous studies showing a link between discounting and other, non-sexual health behaviors. JEL Classification D80 · D90 · I10     

Can better parenting be achieved through short prevention programs? The challenge of universal prevention through Strengthening Families Program 11–14

With the increase in substance use by young people in recent years' there has been a growth in evidence‐based programs aimed at preventing this problem. This study aims to assess possible changes in family and parental dynamics among families taking part in a short (6‐session) universal program. These changes might act as protective factors for families in preventing substance use. A quasi‐experimental design was used' with pretest and posttest evaluations. The participating schools meeting the inclusion criteria were randomly assigned to the experimental or control group. The sample was made up of 16 experimental groups and 17 control groups' with the participation of 353 parents and 289 youths. The results confirm the strengthening of the families by improving the following key components of parenting: resilience' involvement' family conflicts' and positive parenting. Reinforcing parenting skills through a short program is a good strategy to take' ensuring high levels of adherence (86.40% retention of the initial sample). Hence future universal prevention programs must not just set their sights on high levels of effectiveness' but also on efficiency.     

Experiences of Women on Public Assistance

Although much has been written regarding the effectiveness and efficiency of the various antipoverty programs, very little information is available on the recipients' perceptions of and experiences with these programs. This article addresses this issue and presents qualitative results of interviews with 8 recipients of both cash assistance (e.g., Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) and in-kind assistance (e.g., Section 8 housing). The average age of the participants was 37.5; all were females with children from 2 to 5 years old. Overall, the major themes that emerged include lack of work programs, difficulties in forming a permanent family life with a partner, feelings of shame and disrespect, an insecure future, and a sadness regarding life's outcome. These findings suggest that antipoverty programs should focus not only on financial concerns but also on the individual's desire to be a contributing member of society.     

Assessment of a State TANF Funded IDA Initiative: A Case Study

Individual development accounts (IDAs), wealth-building programs for the working poor, have existed since the late 1980s. Current research suggests that IDA programs benefit families while contributing to local and state economies. This program evaluation assessed the impact of one state Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)-funded IDA initiative. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from four agencies chosen using cluster sampling across the state. Agency programmatic and participant data from the last year of operation (N?=?160) were examined. Agencies also provided contact information for three participants who had graduated and three who exited the program prematurely in the past year of operation. In person, interviews were held with agency directors (n?=?6) and IDA participants (n?=?11) were interviewed by telephone. Results indicate that 69% (n?=?111) of IDA enrollees successfully completed the program. IDA participants who exited the program prior to completion also expressed benefits associated with the time in which they were involved. Programmatic and individual benefits and challenges reported guide recommendations for improving IDA marketability, participant outcomes, and organizational performance rates. A critical implication of the findings is the need to expand the use and design of IDA programs legislatively to better serve historically oppressed and working poor families more effectively.     

Non-linear mixed logit

We develop an extension of the familiar linear mixed logit model to allow for the direct estimation of parametric non-linear functions defined over structural parameters. Classic applications include the estimation of coefficients of utility functions to characterize risk attitudes and discounting functions to characterize impatience. There are several unexpected benefits of this extension, apart from the ability to directly estimate structural parameters of theoretical interest.     

Some Aspects of Future Plant Design

The State Committee for Automation and Machine-Building commissioned a group of plant designers and architects to prepare blueprints and present their ideas on a machine-building plant to be built 15 to 20 years in the future. The author of this article headed the project. ["The Factory of the Future," Ekonomicheskaia Gazeta, July 1, 1960—abridged.]