Mothers in an insider-outsider economy: the puzzle of Spain

There is growing evidence that social policies towards mothers have important effects on their labour market behaviour. This article argues that these effects are less important in a Male Breadwinner Regime if there is employment insecurity in the household or if women intend to participate in the long-run. I consider the case of Spain, where the workforce has become polarized between insiders and outsiders and where social policies closely resemble the Male Breadwinner Regime. The results show that Spanish mothers fall into two groups: those who do not withdraw from the labor force after childbirth and those who withdraw and do not re-enter after their children arrive at school age. Entry or re-entry appears related to the husband's employment uncertainty. Married women in an insider household are less likely to be mobile than women in an outsider household.This research was initiated with the financial support from the Bank of Spain (Fondo para Estudios sobre el Mercado de Trabajo) and the CIRIT (Generalitat de Catalunya). An earlier version has been published in Spanish in Adam, 1995 a. I benefited from presentations in the session on Women's Labour Force Transitions in the ESPE ninth annual meeting at Lisbon, in the IESA (CSIC, Madrid) seminar, in the session on European Labour Markets in the IEA meeting at Tunis, and in the IGIER seminar. I thank Namkee Ahn, Siv Gustafsson, John Ermisch, Andrea Ichino, Sergi Jiménez, Dennis Snower, Robert Waldmann and an anonymous referee for comments. My very especial thanks go to my thesis supervisor, John Micklewright, to Gosta Esping-Andersen, John Myles and David Soskice. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Barefoot and in a German kitchen: federal parental leave and benefit policy and the return to work after childbirth in Germany

Since 1979 German federal maternity leave and benefit policy has given women incentives to stay at home and take care of their newborn and youngest children. In 1986 this leave and benefit policy was changed in several ways, turning it into a powerful instrument for delaying mothers' return to work after childbirth. Using a flexible duration dependence estimation technique for proportional hazards due to Prentice and Gloeckler (1978) and applied to grouped durations by Meyer (1987, 1990), we estimate post childbirth return to work hazards for women during the federally protected leave protection period and immediately upon completion of this leave period. During the leave mothers are less likely to return to work the longer is the time left in the leave protection period; however, this result cannot be attributed generally to high levels of maternity benefits. When the leave protection period ends, mothers with strong labor force attachment who are still on leave return to their jobs.The second author gratefully acknowledges financial support by the National German Science Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) (Grant No. Wa 547/2-1). The authors would like to thank Richard Burkhauser, Barbara Butrica, John F. Ermisch, Joachim Frick, Siv Gustafsson, Philip Merrigan, Johannes Schwarze, Eileen Trzcinski, Jan-Dirk Vlasblom, Gert Wagner, Sheng Zhu and two anonymous referees for their help and suggestions. Remaining errors are of course, our own. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Maternal employment in Scandinavia: a comparison of the after-birth employment activity of Norwegian and Swedish women

A striking characteristic of recent Western labour market trends is the rise in employment among mothers of very young children. So far, few studies have analysed the impact of public policies on employment rates of young mothers. In this study we address this issue by comparing two similar countries, Norway and Sweden, which have the same set of policies with slight variations, using data sets with similar designs. We analyse rates of re-entry into paid work after first birth for mothers in 1968–88 by means of hazard regression. One important finding is that the right to paid maternity leave with jobsecurity greatly speeds up the return to work.We want to thank Jan Kowalski for programming assistence and the Swedish Research Council for the Social Sciences and the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences for financial support for the Swedish study. We are grateful to John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson, to two anonymous referees and to colleagues at the Demography Unit for valuable comments. Responsible editors. Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Women's transitions in the labour market: a competing risks analysis on German panel data

This paper analyses the transitions between the three states of non-employment, part-time and full-time work of a sample of married women living in West Germany. The questions addressed concern the dynamics of women's labour market transitions and the association of the probability of transition with household and individual characteristics. A non-parametric duration analysis shows that women have a similar attachment to full-time and part-time work in terms of survival, and that survival in non-employment is shorter than in the other two states. Estimates of a parametric discrete-time competing risks duration model show that wives of retired husbands go into full-time work, children under 3 years have a disincentive effect on part-time work and that part-time work is a state that German women prefer to stay in and not a first step to full-time employment, whereas foreign women living in West Germany prefer full-time jobs.I thank Rebecca Blank, John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson, John Micklewright, Pravin Trivedi, Jane Waldfogel and two anonymous referees for helpful discussions and comments, and Hans-Peter Blossfeld for providing access to these data through his research project at the European University Institute of Florence. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch     

Immigration and internal migration “flight”: A California case study

Recent analyses of 1990 census migration data have pointed up disparities in the way immigration and internal migration contributions affect an area's demographic profile. They show that there is little overlap between states with large population gains from internal migration from other parts of the United States and states with large population gains from immigration from abroad. This emerging pattern, along with the fact that immigration and internal migration select on very different demographic characteristics, could lead toward a demographic balkanization of the nation's population. This paper evaluates immigration-induced out-movement from California, based on an analysis of recently released migration data from the 1990 U.S. census. The results presented here suggest that California's out-migration consists of two different migration systems: first, an immigration-induced flight that exports lower income and less-educated Californians, primarily, to the nearby states of Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona. And second, a more conventional migration exchange with the rest of the United States that involves the redistribution of better educated, higher income migrants. It is the former migration system which appears to be most responsive to the low-skilled immigration flows, while the latter should be responsive to more conventional labor market employment characteristics. This implies that, irrespective of changing economic conditions in the state, the continued immigration of low-skilled migrants will lead to more losses of native-born internal migrants to neighboring states and metropolitan areas. However, these migrant streams will not be made up of the best and brightest residents that characterize most conventional migration streams.A longer version of this report with more extensive background statistics isResearch Report 94–306 (Frey, 1994b) available from Publications, Population Studies Center, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104.     

Employment after childbearing and women's subsequent labour force participation: evidence from the British 1958 birth cohort

Data on women from the British 1958 Cohort Study is used as evidence on the determinants of their labour force participation at age 33. A conventional cross-sectional model of full or part-time employment makes use of some longitudinal material not normally included in such models. Whether the woman made the hitherto customary break from. employment at the time of the first maternity is included in recognition that this cohort was among the first generation to be offered Statutory Maternity Leave. Results suggest that the presence of children (still) inhibits full-time employment and raises the probability of part-time employment; that income effects on participation have continued to weaken while wage elasticity for full-time employment is high. Continuity of employment straight after childbearing raises the chances of subsequent full-time employment, but by no means guarantees it. Gains from maternity leave and other family friendly employment policies have been far from uniform.All correspondence to Heather Joshi. Our research was supported by the ESRC Grant R000234600. Helpful comments by John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Migrant stock vs. lagged migrant flow as a determinant of migrant settlement. A comment on Anjomani and Hariri

In a recent contribution to this Journal Anjomani and Hariri present an interesting study of United States interstate migration which explicitly incorporates so-called flow diversion and flow creation effects. Their discussion and evaluation of the model, however, are marred by several factors. This paper contrasts the roles of migrant stock and lagged migration in migration analysis and then addresses (a) the problems encountered when the family-friends effect is proxied with measures of lagged migrant flows, (b) the problem of using a two-period lagged value of earlier migrant flow as an explanatory variable, and (c) this paper suggests an alternative method of correcting the Anjomani-Hariri model's problems with multicollinearity.The author is grateful to Walter J. Wadycki and to David A. Macpherson for helpful comments and suggestions. The author, of course, bears full responsibility for all errors that remain. This research benefited from a grant from the Miami University Committee on Faculty Research.     

Fertility of rural China: effects of local family planning and health programs

The rationing of births in China after the 1979 announcement of the one-child family policy has been held responsible for the rapid decrease in Chinese fertility, whereas other observers have noted that parallel fertility declines occurred with voluntary behavior in other East and Southeast Asian countries. This paper assesses the joint contribution of local family planning and health programs, individual characteristics of women, and the development of their communities, as explanatory variables for Chinese fertility in rural areas of three provinces in 1985. Given the explicit quantitative reproductive goals of the government, an ordered Probit model for cumulative fertility is estimated for women age 15–34 and 35–49.The authors appreciate the comments on and corrections of our paper by John Ermisch and the programming assistance of Paul McGuire. The financial support of the Rockefeller Foundation is acknowledged.     

Earth,the Business of the Future: From Ego Energy to Eco Energy

Just as we have a turn around manager to save a failing business organization, so it is held, we need a turn around perspective to retrieve the Earth from being in a deficit position. Hence the paradoxical emphasis upon the Earth as the business of the future. Two important distinctions are offered which together provide a new frame of reference for bonding the human and the Earth. The initiating event for the first distinction was a business conference whose purpose was to explore the emerging domain of ego energy. In a parallel way, it is proposed we explore the yet to be discovered domain of eco energy. With eco energy we open our narrowed human window to cosmic perception. With cosmic perception, the energy of the universe can flow through us. The second distinction is between looking at and seeing. Looking at refers to treating our world as a collection of objects. As a collection of objects the Earth can be processed as a series of business transactions. With seeing we relate to our world as a communion of subjects. Such seeing offers transforming power for the human and the Earth to engage in the dialogue of powerful listening and speaking on both individual and planetary scale. These two sets of distinctions are sounded like echo chambers against ten ecologically guiding statements. These ten guiding statements become a reality-testing, experiential framework. Such a turn around perspective offers a different vision to be operationalized in our individual, community, and business lives. Then we can see clearly and respond with eco energy to the Earth, the business of the future!     

Community-Run Fisheries: Avoiding the “Tragedy of the Commons”

This paper discusses how fishing communities around the world avoid destructive overfishing through local and largely informal self-management. The paper offers many examples that undermine the widespread assumption that the tragedy of the commons is inevitable without government regulation.     

Exponential Population Growth and Doubling Times: Are They Dead or Merely Quiescent?

Exponential Growth and Doubling Times: Use of these popular population buzzwords of the last half of the twentieth century was fully justified by the growth rates of that period. However, those growth rates have now all but disappeared and so have the underlying reasons that those buzzwords made sense. Misuse of such expressions today costs credibility. Though the world's population growth certainly does remain vigorous and robust, creating many reasons for concern, nowhere today is growth projected as exponential. The essence of exponential growth is analyzed and distinguished from exponential curves, and non-exponential growth. Several types of current population growth are recognized, none being exponential. In periods of non-exponential growth, a Doubling Time calculated from a single annual growth rate is grossly erroneous and often absurd. Other standard measures of growth are needed. United Nations projections should include figures for percentage growth by 2025 and 2050.     

Have the relative employment prospects for the low-skilled deteriorated after all?

Has the relative unemployment propensity for the low-skilled increased during the 1990s? We address this question empirically, based on two notions of low skills; i) low education, and ii) low ability, conditioned on education and work experience. Ability is identified by previous earnings. Evaluated by the education-based measure, we find that unemployment propensity has not developed unfavourably for the low-skilled. Evaluated by the ability-based measure, it has. We uncover a steady deterioration of employment prospects for persons with low ability relative to others with similar formal qualifications. The adverse employment effects of being low-skilled are stronger the higher is formal education.All correspondence to Knut Røed. The paper is part of the project Sorting, exposed groups and labour market programs financed by the Research Council of Norway. We wish to thank Rolf Aaberge, Paul Gertler, Harald Goldstein, Karl Ove Moene, Jon Strand, Steinar Strøm, Asbjrn Rødseth and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Immigrant and native responses to welfare reform

We investigate the effect of welfare reform in the US on the employment and hours of work of low-educated foreign-born and native-born women. For foreign-born women, we investigate whether the effect of welfare reform differed by year of immigration. We also examine whether the immigrant provisions of welfare reform had a chilling effect on those who remained eligible for benefits. Results suggest that welfare reform induced low-educated women to increase their labor market attachment; reform had larger effects on the least educated native-born women and among foreign-born, larger effects on more recent arrivals. The chilling hypothesis is not supported.All correspondence to Robert Kaestner. The authors thank Lynn Karoly, Christoph Schmidt, seminar participants at the University of Illinois and New School University, and several anonymous referees for comments on a previous draft of this paper. Robert Kaestner is grateful to the Luce Foundation for partial support for this research. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.     

The effect of maternal employment on teenage childbearing

This paper estimates the effect of a mothers employment on her teenage daughters likelihood of birth. Using data from the United States, the National Education Longitudinal Survey of 1988, the author finds that teenagers with working mothers who attend relatively wealthy schools are more likely (77%) to have a birth compared to teens who attend similar schools but have non-working mothers. In contrast, teenagers with working mothers who attend relatively poor schools are less likely (18%) to have a birth compared to teens who attend similar schools but have non-working mothers.I am indebted to Marcia Carlson, Thomas DeLeire, Angela Fertig, Brian Jacob, Darren Lubotsky, Scott Lynch, Susan Mayer, Sara McLanahan, Robert Michael, German Rodriguez, seminar participants at Princeton University and The University of Chicago, and two anonymous referees for insightful suggestions made on earlier versions of this paper. I also gratefully acknowledge financial support from a Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research Graduate Fellowship, a Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation Graduate Fellowship, the Bendheim-Thoman Center for Research on Child Wellbeing at Princeton University, and the Office of Population Research at Princeton University, which is supported by center grant 5 P30 HD32030 from the NICHD. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach

The Easterlin hypothesis emphasizes the effect of relative cohort size on fertility. Models based on the Easterlin hypothesis have performed well in explaining time series fertility data, although these results have been for long historical time series and have typically been restricted to single country studies. These models are not adequate to determine if the hypothesis still holds and if the success of the Easterlin hypothesis is an artifact of the time period chosen. We use panel data analysis and temporal causality tests to see of the Easterlin hypothesis holds for higher-income OECD countries. The results support the Easterlin hypothesis.All correspondence to Yongil Jeon. An earlier version, The Easterlin hypothesis in OECD countries, was presented at the annual conference of the European society for population economics, Bilbao, Spain, June 2002. We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. The usual caveat applies. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The effect of immigration on wages in three european countries

We analyse the impact of immigrants on natives wages from reduced form wage equations for The Netherlands, United Kingdom and Norway. We find very small effects on natives wages and no dominant robust patterns of substitution and complementarity. Effects on earlier immigrants own wages are larger but less reliable. Further work should focus on these own effectsData on the Netherlands have been made available by CEREM, Statistics Netherlands(LSO 1997) and SEO (GPD). The British QLFS have been made available by the Office for National Statistics through the Data Archive, University of Essex. Norwegian KIRUT data have been made available by NSD, Bergen. We are grateful to these organisations. None of these organisations bear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of data sets used in this paper.Two anonymous referees and the editor-in-chief, Klaus Zimmermann, provided very valuable inputs for a substantial revision of an earlier draft. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann.     

Spillover Between Work Attitudes and Overall Life Attitudes: Myth or Reality?

It is widely believed that work attitudes influence attitudes toward life overall. We investigated a multivariate model of work attitudes and overall life attitudes using survey data from two nationally representative (U.S.) data sets, one cross-sectional and one longitudinal. Including a comprehensive set of control variables, we found only weak support for the attitudes spillover perspective, suggesting that employees often compartmentalize or segregate their work and nonwork lives. We consider theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

Households and Territory. The Location of the Population of Rome in Relation to Housing Supply Characteristics

This study forms part of a general programme of research aimed at evaluating the quality of life in Rome. In particular, we have wished to analyse the way in which housing quality, measured with indicators of housing structure and utilization, intersects with the quality of urban livability, measured here only with indicators of social background, homogeneity and hardship referring to subjects living in the individual segments of the city. Groups of territorial areas, homogeneous by housing typology, were identified using multivariate data analysis and it was thus shown how particular typologies of household respond to this supply. From this emerged a particular model of development of the city in concentric bands, within which the originally differentiated households have tended over time to assume homogeneous characteristics.     

Subsidy policies with capital accumulation: Maintaining employment levels

We study a dual economy model of growth and unemployment in the presence of Harris-Todaro type labor migration. The model is a discrete time model of economic growth with given population but endogenous migration of labor. The economy tries to reach development in the quickest possible time while not allowing unemployment to rise above a socially acceptable level. We characterize situations under which maximizing the accumulation of capital in each period is optimal. We also study how particular taxes and subsidies affect unemployment and capital accumulation. Finally, we show that a higher initial capital stock does not necessarily mean a quicker attainment of self-sustained full employment.