STOCHASTIC INFLATION AND THE OPTIMAL POLICY OF PRICE ADJUSTMENT

This paper analyzes the optimal policy of price adjustment for a monopolistic firm in the presence of stochastic inflation. It shows that an increase in the expected rate of inflation or in the cost of price adjustment leads to an increase in the initial real price and a decrease in the terminal real price in each period with a fixed nominal price. It also shows that the effects of increased riskiness of inflation are ambiguous.     

RELATIVE PRICE DISPERSION, AGGREGATE PRICE MOVEMENT, AND THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper develops a model of relative price stickiness and examines its implications for the relationship between relative prices, inflation, and the natural rate of unemployment. Estimation of the model demonstrates that causality in the relationship between relative and aggregate prices runs in both directions. However, microeconomic disturbances have been the primary source of relative price change variance over the postwar period, and these micro disturbances have exerted a strong effect on inflation in the short run. It also is shown that micro relative price change dispersion has had a significant influence on the natural rate of unemployment.     

COSTLY PORTFOLIO ADJUSTMENT AND THE SHORT RUN DEMAND FOR MONEY

In many empirical studies the short-run demand for money includes a lagged dependent variable; this is usually attributed to some cost of adjusting money balances toward their desired level. This short-run money-demand equation is sometimes used as a structural equation in models in which market clearing is also assumed (in the sense that money supply equals short–run money demand). In this paper, a theoretical counterexample demonstrates that this use of a short-run money demand equation is not generally valid. This finding challenges the usual interpretation of the lagged dependent variable.     

INFLATION AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRICE CHANGES ACROSS MARKETS: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS

Recent advances in time series methodology are applied to the investigation of causal relationships between monthly changes in the consumer price index and changes in its dispersion across different consumption categories. This dispersion is associated with the degree to which relative prices are changing. Past inflation rates seem useful in forecasting changes in relative prices, but not vice-versa; there is also a significant contemporaneous correlation between these series. Hence, it is concluded that fluctuations in the inflation rate help cause fluctuations in relative prices, but not vice-versa unless the entire effect occurs within a month. The analysis also serves to illustrate a new way to implement the Granger causality concept.     

PRICES,INFLATION, AND SMOKING ONSET: THE CASE OF ARGENTINA

This article examines the effect of tobacco prices on the decision to start smoking in Argentina. Argentina is an interesting case to explore given its high smoking rates, its recent experience with periods of very high and hyperinflation, and the mixed evidence of the effect of prices on smoking onset, particularly in low‐ and middle‐income countries. We used data from four cycles of two large national surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011 and discrete‐time hazard models. We found that tobacco prices had a statistically significant and fairly large impact on the hazard of smoking onset, and these findings were robust to alternative specifications. We also found that prices had little effect on the hazards of smoking onset during periods of hyper‐ and very high inflation, which provide some support for the notion that prices lose their informational role in such periods. Governments need to be cognizant that their most important policy tool to reduce tobacco use—taxes that increase real tobacco prices—is likely no longer effective during these times. (JEL C41, H20, I12, I18)     

THE OPTIMALITY OF PARTIAL PRICE ADJUSTMENT POLICIES

This paper studies the optimal price adjustment policies of a monopolistically competitive firm whose profit-maximizing price is subject to a serially correlated random disturbance. The firm chooses its price by comparing the expected cost of present and future price changes with the expected losses occurring when price deviates from its instantaneous profit-maximizing value. Partial price adjustment often is the best way to minimize the sum of these losses. Prices tend to be more flexible both in response to large shocks to the firm's profit-maximizing price and when much uncertainty exists about the future.     

ON THE INFREQUENT ADJUSTMENT OF PRICE BY FIRMS

Many firms change price no more than twice a year. This phenomenon is readily explained by very small price adjustment costs, and the fact that the firm's rate of profit is often insensitive to deviations in the interval between price changes from its optimal level. As a result, firms which change price only once or twice a year may earn almost as much profit as firms that adjust price optimally. This refutes the standard objection that price adjustment costs are too small to matter. The argument does not require extreme assumptions about the flatness of the firm's profit function.     

ON INFLATION AND REAL PRICE VARIABILITY

This paper studies the consequences of costly price adjustments for the variability of real prices accompanying inflation. For constant-elasticity demand and cost of production it is shown that a higher demand, a lower cost of production, or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to less intertemporal variability of real prices. If the marginal cost of production does not increase "too" fast, then the average real price is less than the real price that would prevail in the absence of inflation; additionally, a higher demand, a lower cost of production, or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to a higher level of real prices.     

PRICE FLEXIBILITY AND AGGREGATE STABILITY: NEW EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS

The relation between price flexibility and aggregate real stability has been subject to recent debate. Increased price flexibility decreases the response of real output to aggregate demand shifts and, in turn, is stabilizing. The increased flexibility may exacerbate, however, the size of demand shifts induced by a given underlying shock. If the latter channel dominates, increased flexibility may prove destabilizing. This paper examines the real effects of specific shocks underlying aggregate demand across a group of eighteen major industrial countries. The stabilizing effect of price flexibility appears to dominate.     

PRICE ADJUSTMENT POLICIES AND FIRM SIZE

A number of U.S. State Departments of Transportation have adopted a price adjustment policy designed to limit cost fluctuations of oil‐based inputs in government procurement. Similar policies are common in defense contracting, and have been used to offset financial losses of health insurance companies in Medicare and the Affordable Care Act. We show that while all bidders submit lower bids after the policy is introduced, the extent of bid reduction diminishes with firm size. Small new firms are able to compete more frequently, promoting auction competition and efficiency. (JEL H4, H57, D44)     

FACTOR SUBSTITUTION, RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS, AND THE EFFECTS OF COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS ON EMPLOYMENT AND INVESTMENT

Within an aggregate model with three inputs to production, the paper studies the effects of an increase in the price of one of the inputs, called commodities. No restrictions are placed on the production possibility constraint, and expectations are assumed to be formed rationally. After considering the effects on the demand for the two remaining inputs, labor and capital, the paper analyzes the effects on employment under a wage rigidity constraint. A dynamic formulation is used to analyze the effects on investment, which are found to depend weakly and sometimes perversely on partial substitution parameters.     

AGGREGATE PRICE SHOCKS AND FINANCIAL INSTABILITY: A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

This article presents evidence on the relationship between price and financial stability. We construct an annual index of financial conditions for the United States, 1790–1997, and estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on the index using a dynamic ordered probit model. We find that price-level shocks contributed to financial instability during 1790–1933 and that inflation rate shocks contributed to financial instability during 1980–97. The size of the aggregate price shock needed to alter financial conditions depends on the institutional environment, but we conclude that a monetary policy focused on price stability would contribute to financial stability.     

UNCERTAIN EFFECTS OF MONEY AND THE LINK BETWEEN THE INFLATION RATE AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY

In the postwar period high rates of inflation are associated with high levels of inflation uncertainty. In this paper I argue that the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty are linked by forecasters' uncertainty about the impact of money growth on the price level, and I present evidence indicating that this has been the case. As long as the impact of money growth on the price level remains unpredictable, then even predictable money growth will cause inflation uncertainty with its accompanying adverse effects on employment and output.     

THE CONSEQUENCES OF COSTLY DEFAULT

This paper investigates the consequences of assuming that default on loans or corporate debt is costly; that is, the act of default imposes a deadweight cost on the economy. The analysis deals with two simple capital market models. Conditions for capital market equilibrium nominal interest rates and probability of default to exist are given and the comparative statics of these equilibrium variables with respect to changes in expectations, productivity of investment, cost of default and riskless interest rates are examined. In many cases these comparative static results are unambiguous in sign.     

EMPLOYMENT FLUCTUATIONS AND THE MITIGATION OF RISK

The main ideas discussed in this paper can be briefly summarized as follows: First, although risk-mitigating arrangements — specifically, risk shifting in labor markets and risk pooling in product markets — suggest an explanation for certain specified features of macroeconomic fluctuations, risk-mitigating contractual arrangements are neither necessary nor sufficient to cause any particular disturbance to produce output and employment fluctuations. Second, given that a stochastic disturbance is going to affect output and employment, risk-mitigating arrangements can affect the amplitude of these fluctuations. Specifically, risk-mitigating arrangements reduce and reallocate the risks associated with stochastic disturbances. This process produces at least three effects on the variation in aggregate employment. These effects are changes in worker tolerance of employment fluctuations, increased variation in spot product prices, and relatively greater income variation for agents who probably have relatively high marginal spending propensities. In addition to these effects the existence of contractual markets has a potential effect on the form of the inference problem that agents face in determining the nature of disturbances in a context of incomplete information. Third, despite some similarities, a macroeconomic model that encompasses risk-mitigating arrangements differs in important ways from models that utilize the non-market-clearing approach to analysis of the determination of income and employment.