《制度人口学论丛》征稿启事

制度人口学是人口学中的一个新兴学科,具有很强的交叉学科特征。2004年中国社会科学院重点学科工程建设项目将“制度人口学”作为重点扶植学科,国家社会科学基金也立项资助。这对该学科的发展起到了很大的促进作用。为加强制度人口学研究者之间的学术交流,推动制度人口学学科建     

人口学是一门具有广泛应用价值的很有发展前途的科学

人口学的社会认知形象不清或偏狭 ,对人口学的地位、作用和学科发展造成了不利的影响 ,也是造成我国目前人口学研究萎缩的重要原因之一。人口学是一门很年轻的、在我国还远远没有被开发的很有发展前途的科学。应以市场经济为背景 ,从深化人口学的学科研究、专业人才培养和应用开发三个方面来解决当前人口科学发展问题。     

试论人口学史研究的对象、意义和方法

<正> 人口学史是人口学体系中的一门学科,它研究人口学产生、发展的历史过程,探索其中的规律性,进而预见人口学未来发展的趋向。近几年来,我国学术界在人口学史领域的研究中取得了一定成果,与其它人口分支学科蓬勃发展的态势相比,人口学史领域略显冷落。本文试就人口学史研究的对象、意义、方法等问题做初步探讨。     

对人口学学科体系的重新认识

人口学是一门方兴未艾的朝阳科学 ,2 1世纪正是人口科学的用武之时 ,人口学科学体系构成的研究是人口学研究中的重要环节。国内外学者对人口学学科体系的认识并不统一 ,对重大人口学问题的看法也有待商榷。人口学分支学科是人口科学研究进一步深入的载体 ,是人口科学发展与创新的新的增长点     

人口学的应用研究初探——人口学在社会、经济活动中的应用

<正> 人口学的主要目的是促进我们对人类自身发展运动有所了解,这一点本身就证明了人口学存在的意义。本文试对人口学的应用研究即人口学在社会、经济活动中的应用作一初步探讨。人口学是一门综合性的社会科学,既包括侧重于研究人口自身规律的学科,又包括侧重于应用的研究人口与社会、经济活动相联系的学科。这里不妨把前者称为学术人口学,后者称为应用人口学。     

三十年来中国人口学方法发展的三大特点

人口学在研究方法上具有鲜明的特色,人口学方法是人口学学科体系的重要组成部分之一。按照《中国大百科全书》的界定,人口学方法是指研究人口自身发展规律和人口与社会、经济、环境诸因素间内在本质联系的方法论,以及对其数量关系进行调查、统计、分析、研究所运用的各种方法的总称。国内外经典的人口学教材和著作认为人口学方法包括人口学方法论、数据收集／调查方法、统计分析方法、数理分析方法、人口学模型、间接估计方法以及为了研究人口现象从其他学科引入的各种新方法等。     

我国人口学发展自身的若干思考

在我国人口学发展的过程中,有许多值得回顾和总结的地方.现有较多的研究从影响人口学发展的外部因素探讨人口学学科的变化,本文侧重从人口学学术发展自身建设提出几点粗浅思考,供批评指正.     

美国的人口学兴衰及其决定因素

从社会建构主义视角回顾和分析美国人口学的发展历程,展现人口学在不同历史时期的发展状况。人口学作为一门学科,其学科特色是人口学者们在特定的历史条件下人为建构出来的。人口学本身是不断的调整和发展的,人口学者们应注意到这一现象,不要被人口学所谓的内在学科特色所束缚。     

古人口学有关问题新探

人口学正在向纵深发展,近百年来出现了若干分支学科。古人口学是人口学的重要分支之一。它虽然尚处于幼年时期,但发展趋势业已形成,其前途十分广阔。下面就古人口学的涵义,研究对象、研究方法、社会作用以及发展前景,谈谈个人的见解。     

健康人口学的定义界定和内涵研究

健康人口学是一门正处于创立和发展之中的人口科学和健康科学相结合的边缘交叉学科。在人口学和健康相关学科研究的基础上，本文提出了健康人口学的定义，认为健康人口学是一门研究人口特征变化和健康转变之间相互作用和相互制约规律的学科。在回顾国外学者一些相关观点的基础上，本文还讨论了健康人口学产生的背景、原因、性质和特点、研究内容和范围等几个基本问题。     

The determinants of fertility in rural Peru: Program effects in the early years of the national family planning program

Using data from the 1991 Peru Demographic Health Survey, a linked Situation Analysis, and a unique region-level data set, this paper examines the determinants of fertility in rural Peru before and after the 1985 enactment of its National Policy on Population. The empirical framework combines a model of the timing and spacing of conceptions with a model of the timing of the placement of family planning services in communities in order to control for non-random placement of services. Results show the program helped reduce fertility post 1985. The magnitude of the effects is quantified with simulations. All correspondence to David Guilkey.We thank the editor and two referees for detailed comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Funding support for this project was provided by the MEASURE Evaluation Project under a Cooperative Agreement between the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Carolina Population Center (Number HRN-A-00-97-0018-00). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not the sponsoring agency. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The educational gradient of childbearing within cohabitation in Europe

Nearly every European Country has experienced some increase in nonmarital childbearing, largely due to increasing births within cohabitation. Relatively few studies in Europe, however, investigate the educational gradient of childbearing within cohabitation or how it changed over time. Using retrospective union and fertility histories, we employ competing risk hazard models to examine the educational gradient of childbearing in cohabitation in eight countries across europe. In all countries studied, birth risks within cohabitation demonstrated a negative educational gradient. When directly comparing cohabiting fertility with marital fertility, the negative educational gradient persists in all countries except Italy, although differences were not significant in Austria, France, and West Germany. To explain these findings, we present an alternative explanation for the increase in childbearing within cohabitation that goes beyond the explanation of the Second Demographic Transition and provides a new interpretation of the underlying mechanisms that may influence childbearing within cohabitation.     

人口转变:一个可以无限拓展的概念?

人口转变的概念从提出到现在已有80多年的历史。数十年来,许多学者对人口转变的研究和贡献,使之成为人口学最有影响的理论之一。它概括了人类在从传统社会向现代社会转变的过程中人口再生产的演变特点以及这种演变的原因和社会经济后果。到了上个世纪80年代后期,欧洲学者范德卡及其同事提出了"第二次人口转变"的概念,以此概括二战以后发生在西欧的一系列人口和婚姻家庭的变化以及生育率现象。20世纪90年代后,又有学者用"第三次人口转变"表述欧美国家持续的低生育率和高迁入率导致的人种结构的变化。文章认为,"第二次人口转变"和"第三次人口转变"的提出者们的研究是非常有启发性和有价值的,但并不赞成他们将自己的研究内容冠以"人口转变"。     

What Is Urban? Comparing a Satellite View with the Demographic and Health Surveys

Appraisal of urbanization trends is limited by the lack of a globally consistent definition of what is meant by urban. This article seeks to identify and explain differences in the definition of “urbanness” as used in two largely distinct research communities. We compare the Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), which defines urban areas based primarily on satellite imagery of nighttime lights, to the urban classification found in Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), which relies on the urban definitions of individual countries' national statistical offices. We analyze the distribution of DHS clusters falling within and outside of GRUMP urban extents and examine select characteristics of these clusters (notably, household electrification). Our results show a high degree of agreement between the two data sources on what areas are considered urban; furthermore, when used together, GRUMP and DHS data reveal urban characteristics that are not evident when one data source is used independently. GRUMP urban extents are overwhelmingly medium and large highly electrified localities. DHS clusters that are classified as non‐urban but that fall within GRUMP extents tend to be peri‐urban areas.     

经典人口转变理论的再探索—现代人口转变理论研究评介

产生于20世纪30年代并盛行于60年代的人口转变理论,是当代世界人口学界普遍认同的最重要的人口理论之一。本文以现代人口转变理论发展历程为线索,对该理论已有的研究成果和存在的争论予以总结,试图为今后的人口转变理论研究提供思路。     

Measuring Women’s Empowerment at Household Level Using DHS Data of Four Southeast Asian Countries

Women’s empowerment is important indicator for social development, yet there has not been a practical index on women’s empowerment at household level, especially for developing countries. Previous studies have suggested a theoretical framework of four components of women’s empowerment at household level: women’s labor force participation, women’s household decision-making, women’s use of contraception and women’s education. In this study, a measurement of women’s empowerment is developed using principal axis factoring with micro data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on four Southeast Asia countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines and Timor-Leste. The results has consistently found three factors including women’s labor force participation, women’s education and women’s household decision-making that affect individual women’s empowerment. Nevertheless, despite the literature suggested by other studies, very little evidence was found to support family planning use as one of the components of women’s empowerment in these countries. The new measurement also provides a solution for the problem of lacking household level data in current indices. More importantly, the construction of the measurement is practically applicable in more than 90 developing countries where the Demographic and Health Surveys are available.     

Indonesia; World Bank assists Second Population Project

Indonesia's First Population Project, funded jointly by the International Development Association and UNFPA, was started in 1972 and provided for construction of service and training facilities, equipment, research and evaluation studies, education, and communication activities. The national family planning program has made progress in the last 20 years. Acceptor and family planning personnel statistics are given. The World Bank has recently awarded Indonesia a loan to fund its Second Population Project, to aid in reaching the goal of a 50% reduction in fertility by 2000.     

The effect of number of siblings on adult mortality: Evidence from Swedish registers for cohorts born between 1938 and 1972

Demographic research has paid much attention to the impact of childhood conditions on adult mortality. We focus on one of the key aspects of early life conditions, sibling group size, and examine the causal effect of growing up in a large family on mortality. While previous studies have focused on low- or middle-income countries, we examine whether growing up in a large family is a disadvantage in Sweden, a context where most parents have adequate resources, which are complemented by a generous welfare state. We used Swedish register data and frailty models, examining all-cause and cause-specific mortality between the ages of 40 and 74 for the 1938–72 cohorts, and also a quasi-experimental approach that exploited multiple births as a source of exogenous variation in the number of siblings. Overall our results do not indicate that growing up in a large family has a detrimental effect on longevity in Sweden.     

Climate,migration, and the local food security context: introducing Terra Populus

Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population–environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate–migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments.