国际金融危机潜在传染源的识别及其传染力分析

亚洲金融危机和希腊债务危机表明中小国家也可以引发严重危机，这种现象不容忽视。基于复杂网络理论，使用2007年国际贸易数据构建了包含148个国家和地区的全球宏观经济网络；利用S.I.R模型模拟了各国在发生不同等级的金融危机时所影响到的国家数量和经济总量，发现不同国家传染力的差异存在一定的区域特征，许多经济总量不大的国家也具有引发严重危机的潜力；使用动态聚类法对各国的传染力进行分类，处于类别1至类别4的国家为国际金融危机潜在传染源；通过计算传染力与GDP、进口和网络拓扑结构指标的Spearman相关系数发现，GDP、进口较大以及聚类系数小的国家在低危机等级时就表现出一定的负面溢出；而贸易伙伴较多以及处于网络中心位置的国家在较高的危机等级下具备引发严重危机的潜力；使用2009年的数据进行模拟，本文的主要结论依然稳健。     

The Role of Local Context in the Cross‐border Acquisitions by Emerging Economy Multinational Enterprises

This paper explores the role of local context in cross‐border acquisitions by emerging economy multinational enterprises (EMNEs). It argues that the importance of local context has remained despite the increased global integration of the world economy. Hypotheses are tested using data on Indian acquisitions hosted in 70 countries over an eight‐year period. Results, which are consistent across number and value of cross‐border acquisitions, show that the local context in host countries offers contrasting benefits. Emerging economy multinational enterprises exploited these benefits by embedding in host countries through acquisitions. The acquisition strategy is conventional in the motives underpinning internationalization, but novel in its geographical clustering of host countries, and idiosyncratic owing to the EMNE's ability to draw on home country embeddedness. The paper develops theoretical implications and extends the concept of embeddedness, treating it as a series of internalization or quasi‐internalization decisions across a variety of local contexts by multinationals.     

Low-risk opportunity recognition from mature technologies for SMEs

It is common that SMEs recognize low-risk technological arbitrage opportunities in mature technologies, enter the global market, and occupy significant market shares. This opportunity is characterized by imitable technology complexity, market insignificance for oligopoly companies, and technology maturity. We propose a new and systematic method to recognize the most appropriate low-risk technological arbitrage opportunities for SMEs. The four-phase opportunity recognition procedure consists of technology complexity analysis, market appropriateness analysis, technology maturity analysis, and organizational fit analysis using empirical measures and analytic tools. An illustrative example of a company searching for technological arbitrage opportunities in semiconductor equipment is provided.     

全球价值链贸易网络分析与国际风险传导应对

在全球化生产不断演进的背景下，参与国际分工各国在共享分工福利的同时，如何避免 外部世界的冲击?关于这一问题，若从一国所处的与其他国家的价值链贸易网络的视角给予 考察，或许能够得到一些答案.本文基于2000年~2014年世界投入产出数据，研究发现全球价值链贸易网络具有“小世界现象”和“无标度特性”等复杂网络性质，且整个网络的演化是一个循序渐进的过程.接着指出，在全球生产网络分析框架下，一国可通过强化其在全球价值链贸易网络中的集约性和广延性特征，实现自身重要程度的提高，弱化来自外部波动的影响.最后，从进口(投入)和出口(产出)两个方向对上述结论给予验证，即一国可通过增加上下游贸易对象数量并降低贸易强度分布集中度，做广做均全球外贸发展布局，弱化内外部之间风险互相传导的冲击，稳健全球价值链贸易网络.     

Is there a trend towards global value chain specialization? — An examination of cross border sales of US foreign affiliates

In this study we discuss and empirically test the assertion that over the last two decades multinational enterprises' (MNEs') configuration of value-adding activities has shifted from a sparse and simple (host–home) international division of labor among the foreign affiliates to a more specialized and ‘advanced’ global value chain configuration in which MNEs locate fine-sliced parts of the value chain at the most efficient locations. Using data on trade flows of U.S. affiliates in 56 host countries between 1983 and 2003 we find some indications of a trend in the direction of global value chain specialization. In particular among US affiliates in developing countries the proportion of host–host, intra-firm trade has increased significantly during the observed period of time. Conversely, the proportion of host–home and inter-firm trade has diminished. We interpret this as indicating both value chain disaggregation (vertical specialization) and MNEs' systematic exploitation of factor cost differentials across countries. We also find that the absolute levels of all types of trade flows have increased. Hence, it is the relative, and not the absolute, changes in the trade flow patterns of US affiliates that gives credibility to the global value chain assertion.     

Institutional distance and ownership in foreign acquisitions

In this study, we take a balanced view on cross-border distances and argue that there are both costs and benefits when multinational companies (MNCs) operate in distant environments. When conducting cross border acquisitions (CBAs), MNCs attempt to minimize the costs while also maximizing the benefits offered by institutionally distant host countries. MNCs do so by sharing the equity ownership with the local partners who help MNCs navigate the local environment and derive location-specific advantages. We also propose that the effect of institutional distance is directional such that firms are more likely to opt for shared ownership when the target is located in a country with less developed institutions than in a country with more developed institutions. Further, firm-specific and context-specific factors impact the costs and benefits of operating in distant countries and condition the relationship between institutional distance and the likelihood of a firm opting for shared ownership in CBAs. We test our arguments on a sample of 37,588 CBAs involving 52 home and 54 host countries over 17 years (1996–2013).     

The product cycle model of foreign direct investment and developing country welfare

Raymond Vernon's product-cycle model predicts two distinctive kinds of foreign direct investment in developing countries: fist, subsidiaries whose operations are tightly integrated into the parent's strategy to advance its competitive position in international markets; second, subsidiaries toward the host market whose profits help fund the needs of the parent but whose output is not an integral part of the parent's global sourcing network. In practice, the latter are frequently subject to domestic content, joint venture, and technology-sharing requirements; the former almost never are. How do the two kinds of foreign direct investment differ in their impact on host country development? Somewhat surprisingly, to those who may be wary of what Vernon himself reffered to as “captive” plants, foreign investor operations intimately linked into the parent's global sourcing network make a systematically larger and more dynamic contribution to the host economy via the activities of the affiliates themselves, via backward linkages to local suppliers, and via spillovers and externalities. Foreign investor operations impeded from close integration via domestic content, joint venture, and technology-sharing requirement provide a much less positive and sometimes genuinely negative impact, especially if they are protected by trade barriers or other forms of market exclusivity.     

International Strategy and Knowledge Creation: The Advantage of Foreignness and Liability of Concentration

International business scholars increasingly emphasize regional strategies based on an optimal location of downstream sales. There has been less scholarly attention, however, to the relationship between international strategy and upstream knowledge creation including R&D. Building on contemporary strategic management theory and the knowledge‐based view we remedy this. The viability of home‐regional or bi‐regional strategies is based on common assumptions that imply negative consequences of distance and foreignness for downstream sales and marketing and benefits from agglomeration for upstream knowledge creation activities including R&D. In contrast, we propose that upstream knowledge creation, radical innovation in particular, rather gains from distance and foreignness and from being dispersed, suggesting the effectiveness of a global strategy. Based on the resource‐based view and recent research on the economics of strategic opportunities and competitive advantage, we provide theoretical explanations for this. We demonstrate how a global multinational corporation is uniquely equipped with knowledge extensity including heterogeneous social‐identity frames in multiple sub‐units. Thanks to arbitrage advantages between the sub‐units’ separate and often locally embedded knowledge, a global multinational corporation can address complex interdependences and interactions between knowledge sets required for knowledge creation. This suggests that maximum exploration capabilities are made possible by a global rather than a home‐regional or bi‐regional strategy.     

Gender diversity management in foreign subsidiaries: A comparative study in Germany and Japan

Gender (in)equality varies strongly across countries. However, research has not sufficiently addressed how subsidiaries of multinational companies respond to differences in gender equality between home and host countries. Based on interviews with 34 managers, our study explores how subsidiaries experience gender-related challenges in their home and host countries, what kinds of practices they implement to increase gender equality, and which role the headquarters play in the implementation of these practices. We do so by examining the cases of German subsidiaries in Japan and Japanese subsidiaries in Germany, two countries that differ greatly in gender equality. Building on our analysis, we systematically compare how subsidiaries respond to the institutional pressures from their home and host countries and develop a theoretical model that illustrates how gender diversity management in a subsidiary is contingent on the interaction of (1) global integration pressure from the headquarters and (2) the level of gender equality in the home country relative to the host country, linked via different types of collaboration and practice transfer from the headquarters. Theoretical and practical implications of our findings are discussed.     

Global Surveillance and the Value of Information: The Case of the Global Polio Laboratory Network

Effective control and eradication of diseases requires reliable information from surveillance activities, including laboratories, which typically incur real financial costs. This article presents data from a survey we conducted to estimate the costs of the Global Polio Laboratory Network (GPLN), which currently supports aggressive global surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) to detect circulating polioviruses. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) of the World Health Organization (WHO) provides resources for some of the laboratory network costs, but the total cost of the network remains relatively poorly characterized given the limited documentation of national contributions. We surveyed network laboratories to quantify AFP surveillance support costs and provide data for cost estimates of potential posteradication surveillance policies related to the laboratories. We estimate that the GPLN currently requires millions (US dollars 2002) in total support annually, and that half of the support for national and regional reference laboratories comes from external donors through the WHO or bilateral agreements and half from within nations that host those laboratories. The article also presents the framework for considering the value of information from this global surveillance network and suggests that the expected value of surveillance information from the GPLN currently exceeds its costs. We also provided important insights about how the value of information may change after successful eradication of wild polioviruses.     

Country location choices of service multinationals: An empirical study of the international hotel sector

This article examines international country location choices for equity investment undertaken by global hotel chains. Why do certain host countries attract more hotel investment than others? A second underlying issue that we tackle in this article is whether the traditional foreign direct investment determinants used in past studies on manufacturing also apply to services—or whether service sector-specific determinants are better explanatory variables for understanding the distribution of service foreign direct investment across countries.     

具有无标度特性的港航系统网络效应分析

在对复杂网络的形成、特性和代表性研究成果简要总结的基础上,通过对国际航运网络的实证分析,研究了国际航运网络表现出的小世界效应和无标度特性,对其存在的一些个性进行了分析。将港口产业与港航服务企业等效为产品网络中的主导产品与其互补产品,将航运企业等效为消费者,通过对产品网络中网络效应的分析,以及对消费者两阶段预算分配过程的研究,对港航系统产品网络中网络效应特性的内生机理进行了探讨,指出某些特定领域内复杂网络统计特征源于产品系统的网络收益对产品效用的影响。     

高频数据条件下基于ETF基金的股指期货套利研究

利用无套利区间分析方法,构建了高频数据条件下基于ETF基金组合的股指期货套利模型,并对自有资金投资者及融资融券投资者的期现套利过程进行了分析。实证研究发现中国股指期货市场的正向套利机会多于反向套利机会,期现套利过程中的错误定价率较高,表现出非均衡性;融资融券的费率较高使得该类型投资者的无套利区间较大,而该做空机制的引入在一定程度上抑制了市场的过度套利行为。由于季月期货合约的交易时间相对较长,因此该类型合约的套利机会要多于当月交易的其它类型合约。即使交割日有20%的涨跌幅限制,但交割日当天的平均错误定价率、瞬时套利平均收益率与交割日的前三交易日相比基本相同,但连续套利机会有所增加。     

有限套利与盈余公告后价格漂移

本文结合盈余公告后价格漂移(PEAD)对中国股市的有限套利进行研究。市场定价偏误现象的持续存在与经典金融学的套利假说相矛盾,我们认为市场存在套利局限,异象的背后也许其对应了更高的风险、交易成本或者不同的投资者。基于以上考虑,我们构造了交易风险、交易成本以及投资者熟练度的代理变量对PEAD现象进行考察,结果发现定价偏误的程度与套利风险和成本有正关系、投资者熟练程度与PEAD程度负相关,这说明在中国股市机构投资者会降低股价有更大程度漂移。     

Competitive Capabilities among Manufacturing Plants in Developing,Emerging, and Industrialized Countries: A Comparative Analysis

Competitive capabilities have been defined as a plant's actual performance relative to its competitors, with the most commonly investigated capabilities being quality, delivery, flexibility, and cost. However, most research in this realm has investigated capabilities within developed countries, and neglected the context of developing and emerging nations, which are increasingly becoming viable economic entities in global supply chains in their own right. The present study fills this gap and carries out a comparative analysis of competitive capabilities among plants in developing, emerging, and industrialized countries. Basing our arguments on the resource‐based view of the firm, we suggest that the influence of competitive capabilities on each other varies among plants in differentially industrialized regions. Specifically, we suggest that, on average, competitive capabilities tend to influence each other to a greater degree in plants in emerging and developing countries compared to industrialized countries. Along similar lines, we suggest that the influence of the four competitive capabilities on performance improvement is manifested more strongly among plants in emerging and developing countries than among plants in industrialized nations. We investigate these contentions with data from 1,211 plants in 21 countries. The results are particularly important for decision makers as they decide on the increasingly global location of their manufacturing operations or the configuration of their global supply chains.     

Corporate Governance in Russia:: towards a European, US, or Russian Model?

This article analyzes Russia’s emerging corporate governance system taking into account both foreign and domestic influences. It discusses influences on Russia’s corporate governance from other countries, particularly the US, Germany, and France. Aspects of Russian culture and traditions are then examined to see how they might influence the country’s evolving corporate governance system. Although Russia will continue to be influenced by international standards and systems of other countries, the article concludes that Russian corporate governance will evolve into its own unique model reflecting the country’s traditions, values, and culture. Implications for Western investors are discussed.     

The contingent nature of best practices in national competitiveness: The case of American and Japanese innovation processes

We propose that the differences in competitiveness of companies from different countries is not just a question of the adoption of ‘better’ management models, as conventional wisdom would have us believe; rather, we contend that national competitiveness can change radically over time without significant changes in management practices. Contrary to much of the management literature we hold that changes in the global business environment often determine to a large degree the competitiveness of companies. Based on our assumptions we offer four specific lessons of how companies can increase their competitiveness within the constraints of the socio-cultural context in which they operate.     

International adjustment of Brazilian expatriates in the United States of America

The adjustment of expatriates to host countries has been identified as a determinant of their success in international assignments. The literature on expatriates is largely based on cases of expatriates from developed economies; however, given the current global market scenario, companies from developing countries are also assigning expatriates to international assignments. The purpose of this study was to understand the international adjustment of Brazilian expatriates working for Brazilian multinational subsidiaries in the United States of America (USA). The study used an exploratory approach of in-depth interviews with open-ended questions conducted with 11 Brazilian expatriates working for 11 different Brazilian multinationals in the USA. The contributions of this study are twofold: (1) exploration of the adjustment perspectives of expatriates of Brazilian multinational companies, and (2) exploration of the effects of variables from the USA context, as host country, on the international adjustment of expatriates. Findings show that Brazilian expatriates perceived that rules and laws of the USA had a great effect on their international adjustment, while cross-cultural differences influenced leadership styles and interpersonal relationship.     

Global Warming Risk Perceptions in India

Few studies have focused on global warming risk perceptions among people in poor and developing countries, who are disproportionately impacted by climate change. This analysis conducts a comprehensive assessment of global warming risk perceptions in India using a national sample survey. Consistent with cultural theory, egalitarianism was positively associated with global warming risk perceptions. In addition, perceived vulnerability and resilience to extreme weather events were also two of the strongest factors associated with global warming risk perceptions. While worry was positively associated with risk perceptions, it accounted for only a small proportion of the variance, unlike studies in developed countries. Finally, the study also collected global warming affective images. The most common responses were “don't know” or “can't say” (25%), followed by “pollution” (21%), “heat” (20%), and “nature” (16%). The study finds that the predictors of global warming risk perceptions among the Indian public are both similar and different than those in developed countries, which has important implications for climate change communication in India.     

Managing the new global workforce:: Fostering diversity, forging consistency

As a result of rapid foreign investment, many multinational firms now have workforces that are spread across continents and countries, and that include an increasingly complex blend of cultures and nationalities. Their challenge is to capture the benefits of a diverse workforce while also forging necessary consistency around the world. This article explores the concepts of diversity and consistency as they apply to multinational firms, and draws on examples from several leading multinationals to suggest how firms can better manage their global workforces.