At the nexus of risk and time preferences: An experimental investigation

Although many economic decisions involve choices between uncertain outcomes occurring at different times, most theoretical and empirical work restricts attention to one dimension or another. In this paper, we investigate whether both risk and time preferences can be represented by a single parameter. We collect experimental data to estimate models which allows for a disentanglement of risk and time preferences. Results reveal that the discounted expected utility model assumption, that risk and time preferences can be explained by a single parameter, is not supported by the data. The model estimates imply people prefer to delay the resolution of risky outcomes.     

Asymmetric discounting of gains <Emphasis Type="Italic">and</Emphasis> losses: A query theory account

People discount delayed gains (where the default is to receive a smaller gain sooner) more than accelerated gains (where the default is to receive a larger gain later). For losses, the pattern reverses—people discount delayed losses less than accelerated losses. In Study 1, confirming a Query Theory process account, this sign by direction interaction is mediated by the prominence of thoughts in favor of the default. Thoughts in favor of the smaller, sooner amount are more prominent in delay scenarios than acceleration scenarios, and this increases discounting for gains and decreases discounting for losses. Study 2 confirms the causal role of the order of option consideration. Participants considering thoughts in the natural order (pro-default thoughts first) replicate the sign by direction interaction, whereas participants considering thoughts in the opposite, unnatural order (pro-alternative thoughts first) do not. Reversing the order of option consideration eliminates the sign by direction interaction.     

Competence effects for choices involving gains and losses

We investigate how choices for uncertain gain and loss prospects are affected by the decision maker’s perceived level of knowledge about the underlying domain of uncertainty. Specifically, we test whether Heath and Tversky’s (J Risk Uncertain 4:5–28, 1991) competence hypothesis extends from gains to losses. We predict that the commonly-observed preference for high knowledge over low knowledge prospects for gains reverses for losses. We employ an empirical setup in which participants make hypothetical choices between gain or loss prospects in which the outcome depends on whether a high or low knowledge event occurs. We infer decision weighting functions for high and low knowledge events from choices using a representative agent preference model. For gains, we replicate the results of Kilka and Weber (Manage Sci 47:1712–1726, 2001), finding that decision makers are more attracted to choices that they feel more knowledgeable about. However, for losses, we find limited support for our extension of the competence effect.     

Looking ahead: Subjective time perception and individual discounting

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We disentangle hyperbolic discounting from subjective time perception using experimental data from incentive-compatible tests to measure time preferences, and a...     

Stake effects on ambiguity attitudes for gains and losses

We test the effect of stake size on ambiguity attitudes. Compared to a baseline condition, we find subjects to be more ambiguity seeking for small-probability gains and large-probability losses under high stakes. They are also more ambiguity averse for large-probability gains and small-probability losses. We trace these effects back to stake effects on decisions under risk (known probabilities) and uncertainty (unknown probabilities). For risk, we replicate previous findings. For uncertainty, we find an increase in probabilistic insensitivity under high stakes that is driven by increased uncertainty aversion for large-probability gains and for small-probability losses.     

Welfare implications of non-unitary time discounting

Theory and Decision - This study proposes a model of non-unitary time discounting and examines its welfare implications. A key feature of our model lies in the disparity of time discounting between...     

Ambiguity attitudes and social interactions: An experimental investigation

This paper reports the results of experiments testing prevalence of non-neutral ambiguity attitudes and how these attitudes change as a result of interpersonal interactions. To address the first question we conducted experiments involving individual choice between betting on ambiguous and unambiguous events of the subject’s choice. We found that a large majority of subjects display ambiguity neutral attitudes, many others display ambiguity incoherent attitudes, and few subjects display either ambiguity-averse attitudes or ambiguity-seeking attitudes. To address the second question we designed a new experiment with a built-in incentive to persuade. We found that interpersonal interactions without incentives to persuade have no effect on behavior. However, when incentives were introduced, the ambiguity neutral subjects were better able to persuade ambiguity seeking and ambiguity incoherent subjects to adopt ambiguity neutral choice behavior and, to a lesser extent, also ambiguity averse subjects.     

Reflections on gains and losses: A 2 × 2 × 7 experiment

What determines risk attraction or aversion? We experimentally examine three factors: the gain-loss dichotomy, the probabilities (0.2 vs. 0.8), and the money at risk (7 amounts). We find that the majority display risk attraction for small amounts of money, and risk aversion for larger amounts. Yet the frequency of risk attraction varies according to the gain-loss dichotomy and the probabilities. Kahneman and Tversky studied gain-loss reflections. We submit that a reflection can be decomposed into a translation and a probability switch. We find significant translation and switch effects, which are of comparable magnitude, a result that is equidistant from the diverging two popular views inspired by Prospect Theory: the gain-loss asymmetry, and the fourfold pattern.     

Aspirations as reference points: an experimental investigation of risk behavior over time

This paper examines the importance of aspirations as reference points in a multi-period decision-making context. After stating their personal aspiration level, 172 individuals made six sequential decisions among risky prospects as part of a choice experiment. The results show that individuals make different risky-choices in a multi-period compared to a single-period setting. In particular, individuals’ aspiration level is their main reference point during the early stages of decision-making, while their starting status (wealth level at the start of the experiment) becomes the central reference point during the later stages of their multi-period decision-making.     

Probability weighting for losses and for gains among smallholder farmers in Uganda

Theory and Decision - Probability weighting is a marked feature of decision-making under risk. For poor people in rural areas of developing countries, how probabilities are evaluated matters for...     

An experimental investigation of risk sharing and adverse selection

Does adverse selection hamper the effectiveness of voluntary risk sharing? How do differences in risk profiles affect adverse selection? We experimentally investigate individuals’ willingness to share risks with others. Across treatments we vary how risk profiles differ between individuals. We find strong evidence for adverse selection if individuals’ risk profiles can be ranked according to first-order stochastic dominance and only little evidence for adverse selection if risk profiles can only be ranked according to mean-preserving spreads. We observe the same pattern also for anticipated adverse selection. These results suggest that the degree to which adverse selection erodes voluntary risk sharing arrangements crucially depends on the form of risk heterogeneity.     

Focal points in pure coordination games: An experimental investigation

This paper reports an experimental investigation of the hypothesis that in coordination games, players draw on shared concepts of salience to identify focal points on which they can coordinate. The experiment involves games in which equilibria can be distinguished from one another only in terms of the way strategies are labelled. The games are designed to test a number of specific hypotheses about the determinants of salience. These hypotheses are generally confirmed by the results of the experiment.     

An experimental investigation of transitivity in set ranking

A decision under ‘complete uncertainty’ is one where the decision maker knows the set of possible outcomes for each decision, but cannot assign probabilities to those outcomes. This way, the problem of ranking decisions is reduced to a problem of ranking sets of outcomes. All rankings that have emerged in the literature in this domain imply transitivity. In the current study, transitivity is subjected to an empirical evaluation in two experiments, where subjects are asked to choose between sets of monetary consequences. After analysis with a Bayes Factor, very few violations of transitivity were found. It can be concluded that transitivity seems a plausible condition for the ranking of sets of monetary consequences.     

An experimental investigation of intrinsic motivations for giving

This paper presents results from a modified dictator experiment aimed at distinguishing and quantifying intrinsic motivations for giving. We employ an experimental design with three treatments that vary the recipient (experimenter, charity) and amount passed (fixed, varying). We find giving to the experimenter not to be significantly different from giving to a charity, when the amount the subject donates crowds out the amount donated by the experimenter such that the charity always receives a fixed amount. This result suggests that the latter treatment, first used by Crumpler and Grossman (J Public Econ 92(5–6):1011–1021, 2008), does not provide a clean test of warm glow motivation. We then propose a new method of detecting warm glow motivation based on the idea that in a random-lottery incentive (RLI) scheme, such as the one we employ, warm glow accumulates and this may lead to satiation, whereas purely altruistic motivation does not. We also provide bounds on the magnitudes of warm glow and pure altruism as motives that drive giving in our experiment.     

Probability and juxtaposition effects: An experimental investigation of the common ratio effect

Several theories explain the common ratio effect as a probability effect resulting from properties of individuals' preference orderings over probability distributions of consequences. In contrast, regret theory explains it as the result of changes in the juxtaposition of consequences in the action/state matrix. This article reports an experiment that allowed probability effects and juxtaposition effects to be separately identified for some common ratio problems, some of which involved real gains and others, real losses. The main finding is that changes in the juxtaposition of consequences have systematic effects on choices in the direction predicted by regret theory.University of East Anglia     

The intrinsic value of choice: The propensity to under-delegate in the face of potential gains and losses

Human beings are often faced with a pervasive problem: whether to make their own decision or to delegate the decision task to someone else. Here, we test whether people are inclined to forgo monetary rewards in order to retain agency when faced with choices that could lead to losses and gains. In a simple choice task, we show that participants choose to pay in order to control their own payoff more than they should if they were to maximize monetary rewards and minimize monetary losses. This tendency cannot be explained by participants’ overconfidence in their own ability, as their perceived ability was elicited and accounted for. Nor can the results be explained by lack of information. Rather, the results seem to reflect an intrinsic value for choice, which emerges in the domain of both gains and of losses. Moreover, our data indicate that participants are aware that they are making suboptimal choices in the normative sense, but do so anyway, presumably for psychological gains.     

Asymmetric or symmetric time preference and discounting in many facets of economic theory: A miscellany

Factual accounts of how different people actually do discount future events and do over-estimate and under estimate the likelihood of future gains and losses are seen to vary with time and place. Lifetime distributions of wealth and income correlate with choices by those who live mostly for the present and against those who think now about differential future outputs. Rates of time discount and degree of optimism (rational vs. irrational) are seen to overlap ambiguously. Each “behaviorist” pattern can be matched by its reversed pattern.     

On the functional form of temporal discounting: An optimized adaptive test

The tendency to discount the value of future rewards has become one of the best-studied constructs in the behavioral sciences. Although hyperbolic discounting remains the dominant quantitative characterization of this phenomenon, a variety of models have been proposed and consensus around the one that most accurately describes behavior has been elusive. To help bring some clarity to this issue, we propose an Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO) method for fitting and comparing models of temporal discounting. We then conduct an ADO experiment aimed at discriminating among six popular models of temporal discounting. Rather than supporting a single underlying model, our results show that each model is inadequate in some way to describe the full range of behavior exhibited across subjects. The precision of results provided by ADO further identify specific properties of models, such as accommodating both increasing and decreasing impatience, that are mandatory to describe temporal discounting broadly.     

Does nurture matter: Theory and experimental investigation on the effect of working environment on risk and time preferences

Building upon the reference dependent preferences model, we develop a theoretical framework to examine the relationship between environment and preferences. To verify the model’s prediction, we use a combined artefactual field experiment and household survey data in Vietnam to investigate whether involvement is risky and has long-run targeted benefits, thereby causing fishermen to exhibit different risk and time preferences than workers in other occupations. Using a structural model approach, we integrate prospect theory and hyperbolic time discounting into a single framework, to simultaneously estimate and correlate the parameters of both risk and time preferences with other demographic variables. The key finding that fishermen are found to be less risk-averse and more patient than others asserts the theoretical prediction about the influence of the working environment on preferences.