The strength of sensitivity to ambiguity

We report an experiment where each subject’s ambiguity sensitivity is measured by an ambiguity premium, a concept analogous to and comparable with a risk premium. In our design, some tasks feature known objective risks and others uncertainty about which subjects have imperfect, heterogeneous, information (“ambiguous tasks”). We show how the smooth ambiguity model can be used to calculate ambiguity premia. A distinctive feature of our approach is estimation of each subject’s subjective beliefs about the uncertainty in ambiguous tasks. We find considerable heterogeneity among subjects in beliefs and ambiguity premia; and that, on average, ambiguity sensitivity is about as strong as risk sensitivity.     

Predicting children's internalizing symptoms across development from early emotional reactivity

Current methods of assessing children's emotional reactivity fail to capture individual differences in emotion across contexts that may be meaningfully related to youth psychopathology. We therefore explored the utility of modeling variability in young children's positive and negative emotion across emotionally evocative laboratory tasks to predict later adjustment. At age 3, 409 children completed a battery of laboratory tasks eliciting either positive or negative affect. We used latent difference score (LDS) modeling to predict children's caregiver-reported internalizing symptoms across ages 3, 5, 8, and 11 from variability in their observer-rated positive and negative emotion across laboratory tasks. We found that sex moderated the association between both average and variability measures of children's negative emotion at age 3 and trajectories of their anxious-depressive symptoms across childhood. Measures of emotion variability predicted children's internalizing symptoms above and beyond measures of average emotion. Variability indices also provided unique information about the trajectories of children's symptoms. We discuss implications for the utility of LDS modeling in assessing children's emotional reactivity.     

A parsimonious model of subjective life expectancy

On average, “young” people underestimate whereas “old” people overestimate their chances to survive into the future. Such subjective survival beliefs violate the rational expectations paradigm and are also not in line with models of rational Bayesian learning. In order to explain these empirical patterns in a parsimonious manner, we assume that self-reported beliefs express likelihood insensitivity and can, therefore, be modeled as non-additive beliefs. In a next step we introduce a closed form model of Bayesian learning for non-additive beliefs which combines rational learning with psychological attitudes in the interpretation of information. Our model gives a remarkable fit to average subjective survival beliefs reported in the Health and Retirement Study.     

The education of children in care and children in need: Who falls behind and when?

We seek to explain the development of the educational gap between children in “out‐of‐home care” (CLA), children deemed in social need (CIN), and other pupils. A cohort of 642,805 pupils aged 16 in 2013 was used to chart the educational progress of the full cohort, the CLA (n = 6,236), the CIN in 2012 or 2013 but not CLA (n = 20,384), and a sample individually matched with the CLA (n = 11,084). At age 7, attainment of the CLA and CIN was approximately 1 standard deviation lower than the cohort average and predicted attainment at 16. At this point, the persistent “CIN” (those with earlier and persistent needs) had the lowest attainment relative to others, and this declined further during secondary school. Those entering care before or during primary school had very low attainment at age 7, but their relative attainment did not decline. Attainment of CLA and CIN at age 16 likely reflects early environment, special educational needs, and poor relationships with secondary school. Policy, research, and intervention should focus on CIN as well as CLA, do so before entry to care, and take account of the onset of, and probable reasons for, educational difficulties.     

An experimental investigation of the impact of ambiguity on the valuationof self-insurance and self-protection

We build two experimental markets to examine individual valuations of risk reductions with two risk-management tools: self-insurance and self-protection. We find no positive evidence that the risk-reducing mechanisms constitute a “frame.” Ambiguity in the probability on average affects valuation only weakly, and changes in the representation of ambiguity do not alter valuation. Finally, unlike the results obtained by Hogarth and Kunreuther for the case of market insurance, our findings do not provide a strong support for the “Anchoring and Adjustment” ambiguity model.     

When political values and perceptions of deservingness collide: Evaluating public support for homelessness investments in Canada

Citizen attitudes toward welfare state investments are often explained by their ideological values and their perceptions of deservingness of welfare recipients, yet recent experimental research has led to the theorization that clear deservingness cues can overwhelm otherwise strong ideological beliefs. We tested these claims with respect to homelessness in Canada using a vignette survey experiment and found evidence that citizens with very different political beliefs can support similar government investments, indeed from a shared sense of deservingness as suggested by recent experimental studies, but that support is anchored by rather different reasons. Key Practitioner Message: ? Citizen support for homelessness investments is jointly mediated by ideology and a sense of the “deservingness” of the beneficiary. ? Emphasizing the broader cost savings to taxpayers from “Housing First” does not make conservative‐leaning citizens more supportive of investments. ? Emphasizing the personal attributes of persons experiencing homelessness rather than abstract statistics may unite progressives and conservatives on “deservingness”.     

The Ecology of Terror Defense

We draw on an ecological metaphor to analyze terror defense by governments and individuals. Governments can combat terror in part by targeting what we call the “stock of terror capacity” accumulated by a terrorist organization. The optimal control of terror stocks relies on both periodic cleanup and ongoing abatement, a lesson derived from the optimal control of other stocks of public bads, such as pollution. Citizens can protect themselves from terror by avoiding exposure to threats and by reducing the harm they suffer if an attack occurs—actions we call “avoidance” and “amelioration,” respectively. Such measures may exert positive or negative externalities on other individuals. A simple model shows how individual responses to collective threats may undermine the effectiveness of government policies to address such threats. The model uncovers a strong analogy between the problem of individual responses to terror and the familiar congestion externality.     

It's written all over their faces: Preschoolers' emotion understanding

Emotion understanding is a multifaceted construct made up of several components. To identify how several common components of emotion understanding relate to one another, five emotion understanding tasks were compared within the same group of children. Fifty‐four preschool children (M = 3.81 years, SD = 0.40) were asked to display the typical facial expression of six emotions after hearing their corresponding emotion label. They were then read six vignettes and asked to: “use your face to show how [the protagonist] would feel,” provide an emotion label for the main character, and “choose a picture of a face that would look like [the main character].” Finally, they were asked to provide a label for emotions presented to them in photographs. For all tasks, six emotions were examined: happiness, sadness, anger, fear, surprise, and disgust. With the exception of the two modeling tasks, results show correlations among the emotion understanding tasks. There was a significant interaction between task and emotion category for emotion understanding accuracy. However, there was some consistency in the pattern of discrete emotion categorization emergence across the tasks. Additionally, accuracy scores (representing emotion understanding) across tasks were not equivalent. Findings are discussed in the broader context of emotion understanding.     

Autism and theory of mind in everyday life

The theory of mind account of autism suggests that the key social, communicative and imaginative impairments which characterise this disorder result from an inability to represent mental states. While this account has been largely confirmed by experimental work, there has, as yet, been little examination of autistic children's theory of mind outside the laboratory. The present study used the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales to measure real life social adaptation, through the report of care-givers. In particular, we were interested to find out more about the real life competence of those few autistic subjects who do pass tests of theory of mind. Autistic, mentally handicapped and normally developing children were tested with two standard theory of mind tasks. Groups of subjects who passed or failed these tasks were contrasted. We supplemented the Vineland Scales with items designed to distinguish social behaviour which necessitates theory of mind (termed Interactive) and social behaviour which could be learned (Active). We also asked about maladaptive behaviour of two sorts: Bizarre behaviour typical of autism, and Antisocial behaviour at least some of which would appear to require consideration of beliefs (e.g. deception). We found that the normally developing and mentally handicapped children showed a great deal of evidence of “mind-reading” in their everyday lives, regardless of theory of mind task performance. By contrast, in the autistic group, only those individuals who passed the false belief tasks showed insightful Interactive and Antisocial behaviour. These passers also had better verbal and communication abilities. The autistic subjects who failed the laboratory tasks showed little or no evidence of understanding mental states in their everyday lives, but many did show a high degree of simple Active sociability. Closer analysis showed that only some of the passers showed good evidence of theory of mind in their real life behaviour, and that even these were somewhat impaired relative to their age and developmental level. Implications for the theory of mind account of autism are discussed.     

Systematic Innovation,Comprehensive Development and Going Global: Some Thoughts on the Construction of an Innovation System for Philosophy and Social Sciences in China during the “12th Five-year Plan” Period

Abstract

30多年来,中国思想解放、改革开放的伟大实践推动着哲学社会科学的创新取得了五大成就, 开启了理论创新的时代。“十二五” 时期, 中国哲学社会科学研究将步入系统创新的新阶段, 将从个别观点、个别结论的创新转换到基础理论、理论体系和方法论的创新; 从单一学科、单一视野的创新转换到综合创新、交叉创新和新学科群的崛起; 从无序竞争转换到有序推进。作为创新型国家建设的重要内容, 哲学社会科学创新体系、创新能力建设与自然科学同为 “鸟之两翼” 、“车之两轮” , 同样重要。中国哲学社会科学创新规划应当强化“国家意识”、建立“国家目标”、设立 “国工程” 。系统创新、全面发展、走向世界, 这是当代中国哲学社会科学的基本任务。关键词: 哲学社会科学 创新体系 创新能力 学科群

In the past three decades, the great practice of intellectual emancipation and reform and opening up in China has given rise to five achievements in philosophical and social science innovation, opening a new era of theoretical innovation. The 12^th Five-year Plan period (2011-2015) will witness the arrival of a new stage of systematic innovation in philosophical and social science research: innovation in individual opinions and conclusions will develop into innovation in fundamental theories, theoretical systems and methodologies; the innovation of individual disciplines and perspectives will give way to the rise of new groups of subjects and to innovation based on synthesized and interdisciplinary studies; and disorderly competition will be replaced by orderly progress. As an important component in the construction of an innovative nation, the building of an innovation system and innovation capacity is as important in philosophy and social sciences as in their counterpart, the natural sciences; they are like the two wings of a bird or two wheels of a cart. Our innovation plan for philosophy and social sciences should strengthen “national consciousness,” establish “national aims” and launch “national projects.” Systematic innovation, comprehensive development and going global constitute the basic tasks of contemporary Chinese philosophy and social sciences.     

The International Political Significance of Chinese and US Foreign Aid: As Seen in United Nations General Assembly Voting

The effect of China’s rapid development on Sino-US relations and the existing international order is an important theoretical issue in current international relations research. We use empirical research methods to explore whether and how China has influenced the results of US “vote-buying” in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) through foreign aid. We find that through the mechanisms of foreign policy preferences, vulnerability and credibility, Chinese foreign aid has decreased US manipulation of UNGA voting. However, this is not a subjective strategic choice on China’s part but the objective result of Chinese economic development. Taking the game of Sino-US foreign aid in international politics as the entry point and squarely facing the structural contradictions and competition that exist between China and the US will help us understand not only the problems and obstacles China will encounter on its future developmental path, but also the necessity and difficulty of risk control in Sino-US relations.     

Simple belief elicitation: An experimental evaluation

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We present a method for eliciting beliefs about probabilities when multiple realisations of an outcome are available, the “frequency” method. The...     

Market Transition and Gender Segregation in Urban China*

Objectives. This article analyzes the impact of the new form of economic segmentation, which emerged in urban China during the market transition, on gender segregation and earnings differentials. Methods. I compare both over‐time and across‐city change in gender segregation, and use a series of multi‐level cross‐classified models based on data at three levels: a 1995 national sample of individual workers, industry‐sector data for 1990 and 1995, and city‐level data for 1995. Results. Gender segregation by ownership sector has declined over time now that the state sector has become differentiated and its relative economic advantages wanes. Both earnings differentiation and gender segregation among industries have increased with marketization. In the most marketized cities, the earnings of workers of both sexes in jobs with high rates of female entry are penalized, indicating that marketization exacerbated the negative effect of job feminization on earnings. Conclusions. These findings lend support for the “queuing” perspective that a decline in jobs' relative wages leads to feminization. The making of the Chinese market economy has created a new set of institutional arrangements, which includes that between job feminization and wages.     

修身、成圣与革命：五四时期道德主义者的激进化

五四运动后“救亡”与“启蒙”、“政治”与“文化”的交织与竞逐是我们理解中国近代史的一条线索。既有研究多将恽代英呈现为一个具有道德主义色彩和儒家伦理底蕴的五四知识分子，然而顺着这一思路，我们却难以理解他为何从温和的道德结社转向革命。本文认为，恽代英精神世界中的心学底色，以及他对青年会社会服务经验的借鉴，使他形成了与共产主义者相通的道德认知；道德结社的困境则促使他走向政党运动，以群众运动实践自己的道德理想。恽代英的早期经历为我们呈现了过渡时代具有儒学底蕴的知识分子面对现代政治秩序时的道德困惑，这有助于我们理解中国共产主义革命对德性的强调以及儒家中国的现代转化。     

The Academic History of Literature and Art as a “ Disease of Interpretation”: On the Paradoxical Nature of Interdisciplinary Boundaries

This article represents an academic response to Professor Zhang Jiang’s article “On Imposed Interpretation” published in Russian in the journal October (no. 1, 2015). It argues that the problems observed by Zhang arise from the reality of Western literary criticism over the past decades, and are associated with the contention between philosophy and philology that had its orgins in the West’s Platonic heritage. In outlining the complex symbiotic relationship between the two disciplines in Western literary history, this article finds that two theoretical motive forces catalyzed the process: the “philologization of philosophy” and the “philosophization of philology.” The writer argues that based on a full understanding of the paradoxical relationship between philosophy and philology, which are distinct from and yet attracted to each other, contemporary literary criticism can adopt the principles of “practical conservatism” and “cutting back of methodologies” as a means of healing the ever worsening “disease of intepreretation” in literary history.     

中国人的信仰认同模式以儒教信仰为中心

英语中的“宗教”,就西方基督教而言,是一种制度宗教;汉语中的“宗教”,则不一定指称宗教制度。中国儒教当然不等同于西方语义中的制度宗教,但无疑是一种具有宗教特征的信仰结构。杨庆堃所谓“扩散宗教”的概念,与本文讨论的中国“信仰”,及其在权力秩序和制度宗教之外那种私人、扩散式的信仰认同模式非常相似。为此,本文把儒教的信仰认同模式作为个人信仰与他人信仰、儒教信徒与其他社会成员的互动结果,并以信仰“认同”作为儒教的行动单位,同时亦作为一种分析工具,经由对儒教信仰认同规则的考察,讨论儒教信仰及其信仰群体的建构逻辑,进而分析儒教信仰经纬中中国社会的模式及其演变路径。     

Minimizing Social Desirability Bias in Measuring Sensitive Topics: The Use of Forgiving Language in Item Development

Abstract

Social science research has long been concerned with attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors that are potentially objectionable, immoral, or illegal. These types of topics include, for example, racism, ableism, cheating, and stealing, among others. Referred to as “sensitive topics,” their investigation usually involves questions that require respondents to admit to attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors that violate social norms, making their assessment susceptible to error due to social desirability bias. This article describes an empirical investigation of an approach to minimize this bias, the use of “forgiving language” in survey item development and the effect on item variability. Using secondary data initially collected as part of a measurement development study of mental health providers’ stigmatization of service users, 15 pairs of similar, thematically targeted items, varying with respect to wording approach were tested using a purposive sample of mental health providers (N?=?220). Findings indicate that items crafted in a forgiving manner were not significantly influenced by social desirability bias, in contrast to items developed in more traditional language. Additionally, forgiving language-items produced higher levels of agreement, on average, when compared to those written in more traditional language. More research is indicated, including systematic variation of wording approaches, but these results seem promising.     

A Reason to Believe: Examining the Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming*

Objectives. In this article we examine the causes of both belief and disbelief in global warming among adult Americans. Methods. We use national‐ and state‐level telephone surveys to collect data on individual‐level beliefs regarding climate change and employ ordered logistical regression to measures the relative effect of various factors on those beliefs. Results. The study finds that U.S. views on climate change are being shaped by a combination of personal observations, meteorological events, and physical changes on the planet. The impact of various factors on one's belief in global warming are significantly determined by partisan affiliation, with Democrats and Republicans responding differently to assorted types of evidence. Conclusion. Beliefs regarding global warming are being shaped by individual experiences and weather phenomenon and the processing of such factors is substantially influenced by a person's partisan leanings.