The Inequality Effect of Urbanization and Social Integration

On the basis of the China Social Survey (CSS2011) and related urban statistics, this article conducts an analysis of the “unequal” effects of urbanization and of problems in rural migrants’ social integration with urban residents in the course of their urbanization. We found that although the increased rate of population urbanization did not produce a significant difference between “rural migrants” and “city people” in terms of income, migrants fare considerably worse than city people with regard to social security, cultural life, psychological acceptance and status identification. This kind of inequality transforms the original urban/rural dual structure into a new dichotomy that divides urban dwellers into the migrant population and residents with urban household registration, thereby impeding social integration. This finding will help us understand the causes of the social barriers in current urbanization and may provide theoretical and empirical reference material for “new-type urbanization,” particularly as it relates to the transformation of the rural migrant population into urban citizens.     

大城市超先增长的理性思考

在当今世界和中国的城市化进程中,无论人们的认识有怎样的分歧,大城市超先增长是事实,是不以人们的意志为转移的。大城市之所以超先增长是因为这种模式具有经济、社会和人口的聚集优势,在城市化进程中有辐射和扩散作用,有比较完整的城市化内涵。然而大城市在其增长过程中也有自身的矛盾和问题。研究城市化进程的客观规律,发现困扰大城市发展的矛盾焦点是城市人和城市区位的矛盾。     

方言距离与城市流动人口犯罪的同群效应——基于广州、深圳、东莞三市的实证分析

在快速城市化过程中,由人口流动带来的区域文化碰撞在推动经济增长的同时,也深刻影响着社会融合。基于中国裁判文书网、《汉语方言大词典》、2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查的数据,本文以广州、深圳、东莞三大人口超千万的人口净流入城市为例进行实证分析,以方言距离为文化差异的代理变量,研究其如何影响城市流动人口的同乡团伙犯罪行为。研究表明,方言距离与流动人口同乡团伙犯罪显著正相关,同群效应是文化差异增加流动人口同乡团伙犯罪率的主要途径之一。本文从方言距离视角解读城市化过程中文化隔阂对城市社会和谐稳定的影响,丰富了文化影响移民犯罪及治理的理论探索,对推进以人为本的新型城镇化具有一定借鉴意义。     

Deforestation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Cross-National Investigation of Intervening Mechanisms

Objective . We draw on ecological modernization theory and international political economy arguments to examine the sources of an environmental Kuznets curve (or EKC) that produces an inverted U-shaped rate of deforestation relative to economic development. Method . We use ordinary least squares regression with White's (1978) correction for possible heteroskedasticity to examine the rate of deforestation (1980–1995) in less developed countries. Results . Net of controls for initial forest stock and the quality of deforestation estimates, we find strong evidence for an EKC driven by (1) agglomeration effects linked to the level of urbanization, (2) rural-to-urban migration that partially offsets rural population pressure, (3) the growth of services-dominated urban economies, and (4) strong democratic states. We find little evidence that foreign debt or export dependence influence the deforestation rate. Conclusions . Although deforestation continues to pose pressing and potentially irreversible environmental risks, there is evidence of self-corrective ecological and modernization processes inherent in development that act to mitigate these risks.     

Urban Risk Generalization in China: Space and Governance*

As an issue in Chinese urban development, handling urban risk generalization invites reflection on the structural features and internal development of the immediate or potential risks entailed in rapid urbanization across the globe. As part of research on national governance modernization, China has reached a consensus on managing urban risks. A study of spatial theory indicates that urban risk generalization in China is essentially a structural issue arising from an immature system of generalized benefits in urban space rights and interests along with an unbalanced spatial structure, functional disarray and ecological disruption arising from inequitable and unbalanced urban spatial development, readjustment and renovation. As an innovative form of modern urban public management with its target shifting from the pursuit of material things to people-centered development, spatial management enlists actors including government, business, society and citizens to seek a “community of shared spatial interests” with a rational structure, effective functions and an optimized environment at the level of spatial production and interest distribution. We need innovation in the spatial structures, drivers and mechanisms of urban public management and cultural ecology to realize their institutionalization, synthesis and reordering, strategically forestalling and resolving urbanization risks and realizing a spatial governance vision of the scientific, fair and sustainable allocation, growth and renovation of urban space in the risk era.     

都市化趋势中的襄樊市城镇生态环境建设策略

到21世纪中叶,襄樊市城镇人口占全市总人口的70%左右,现有县城逐渐成长为中等城市,集镇数量减少,沿交通干线形成中心城市都市带。快速城市化过程中的水污染、噪声污染和固体废弃物将增加,而大气污染随着城镇能源结构的改变将会好转。针对城市化过程的生态环境压力提出都市功能区、城镇与环境互动的治理策略。     

源于身份的隔阂:人口多样性、社会信任与犯罪

本文以2014年中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据为基础，构建了一个人口多样性指数，并将其与288个城市的数据相匹配，检验了人口多样性与犯罪率之间的关系。实证结果表明，人口多样性是导致城市犯罪率上升的原因之一，且这一发现是稳健的。作用机制检验结果表明，社会信任是一个重要的中介变量，即人口多样性通过削弱社会信任水平导致犯罪率的上升。进一步，从地区制度环境和民生支出水平两个角度展开的实证检验发现，产权保护越完善、民众对法庭越有信心，政府在公共教育和社会保障上的财政支出越高，人口多样性对犯罪率的影响越弱，说明良好的制度和较高的社会福利支出具有显著的犯罪治理效应。本文的发现为城市化进程中我国各级政府的犯罪治理政策选择提供了经验证据，有助于科学把握犯罪治理的着力点。     

论城市转型与经济发展模式的关系

尽管国际金融危机对我国的经济增速造成了一定的影响,但由于我国仍处于高速工业化和后工业化阶段,城市化的进程仍然不会放缓。面对经济周期的＂后危机＂时期,我国城市的转型发展正迎来新的机遇,即：可以充分吸取世界先进城市转型的经验、教训,并对国内城市在转型发展方面的探索进行评估,依据当前中国处在城市化加速期的阶段性特点,转变经济增长方式,以集约发展、清洁发展的理念来推进城市的科学的转型发展。     

浅析人口城市化与城市社会问题

目前,我国已经进入到城市化快速发展的阶段。随着城市经济的发展以及人口的迅速增长,城市贫困、社会分化、心理失调、以及环境污染等城市社会问题也逐渐浮现,而有效的缓解以上问题是城市的建设者与管理者必须要面对的解决的。     

Development Strategy,Urbanization and the Urban-Rural Income Gap in China＊

本文从政府发展战略的视角,研究中国城市化滞后、城乡收入差距持续扩大的原因。结果发现,旨在鼓励资本密集型部门优先发展的政府战略,造成城市部门就业需求的相对下降,进而延缓城市化进程,农村居民不能有效地向城市转移,城乡收入差距扩大。以技术选择指数作为政府对资本密集性部门政策倾斜程度的度量指标,利用1978-2008年中国省级面板数据,对理论假说进行了实证检验。研究还发现,中国城乡收入差距在经济发展过程中呈现出先下降、后上升的u型规律。     

京津冀一体化对首都人口规模的影响

京津冀区域一体化人口规模预测的主要功能,是反映该区域经济、社会、人口发展的基本走势,包括未来集聚的程度、增长速度、主要结构变动的情况。本文首先对该区域现有的人口数据进行了必要的校核;其次,对京津冀区域总人口增长和城镇化发展的历史轨迹与特点进行分析,阐述未来影响区域总人口增长和城镇化发展的主要因素和变化趋势;最后,采用多模型预测,给出了区域及各城市总人口规模的预测值。     

Special Issue: Language Studies and Methods from the Cross-Disciplinary Perspective*

New-style urbanization is not only a major national strategy for today but also an inevitable trend of social development. It supplies a broad stage for the development of urban citizens’ linguistic competence, which in turn constitutes the basis and motive force of the new-style urbanization and plays a pivotal role in its construction. Proceeding from linguistic competence is an effective measure for dealing with some of the thorny problems arising in the course of new-style urbanization, while new-style urbanization offers an opportunity for the improvement of urban citizens’ linguistic competence.     

Social disorganizations and crime rates in U.S. central cities: Toward an explanation of urban economic change

Little attention has been paid to the simultaneous impacts of urban economic change, in particular the effects of industrial restructuring from manufacturing to service industries in central cities and the suburbanization of employment, on both central-city social disorganizations and crime rates in central cities. This study first assumes that urban economic decline aggravates central-city social disorganizations (family disruption, and population mobility). Second, this study proposes that urban economic decline increases central-city crime rates (seven index crime rates). This study used four predictors of economic transformations in an intrametropolitan area between 1980 and 1990 to measure urban economic change. Three of these measures were indicators of central-city economic change (changes in central-city employment ratio of service to manufacturing sectors, unemployment rate, and poverty rate), and one was an indicator of suburban economic change (suburban employment rate). Results from a sample of 153 central cities confirmed that a rise in the central-city employment ratio accelerated suburban population mobility. After including two measures of social disorganizations, urban economic change had a significant effect on central-city crime rates, in which a decline in manufacturing employment, relative to service employment, increased three central-city crime rates: aggravated assault, larceny, and burglary rates. Two central-city crime rates, rape and larceny, increased with a rise in central-city poverty rate, as well. In contrast, suburban employment growth was related to a decrease in central-city violent crime rates.     

黑龙江省城镇化战略研究

城镇化是指一个国家或地区非农业人口非农化和农村生活方式城市化的过程。黑龙江省在城镇化过程中,由于经济发展水平低、城乡分割的传统体制、资源型城市发展接续产业乏力、城镇密度小、农村劳动力素质低等原因,使黑龙江省城镇化进程缓慢。坚持城乡统筹,推进体制改革和机制创新,科学规划,加快小城镇发展,建立与城镇化发展相适应的融资体制,发展职业教育,是加快实施城镇化发展的宏伟战略。     

城市化过程中的农村化现象分析

“农村化”现象是中国城市化过程中出现的一种伴生的现象.农村化主要表现为进城务工人员的“就业非农化、身份农村化”和“生活市民化、身份农村化”两个特征.通过对不同时期不同行政单位的流动人口、城镇经济活动人口和非本地户口人口中农村户口人口的统计和分析得出中国城市化进程中农村化现象不断扩散的结论.同时,本文从人口流动政策、户籍制度、隐性失业和城市化方式四个方面分析了农村化现象出现的原因,并且对农村化现象带来的流动人口与当地居民的融合、市民化问题及解决途径进行了分析和探讨.     

Trends in the urbanization process in Central America in the 1980's

In the 1980s, urbanization in Central America was increasing compared to the three previous decades. By 1990, the urban population reached 42% in Guatemala, 44% in El Salvador, 43% in Honduras, 59% in Nicaragua, 53% in Costa Rica, and 54% in Panama. The urban population increased mostly in the largest cities, in contrast to Latin America, where secondary cities grew fastest. This trend was particularly true in Managua and San Salvador because of the military conflicts. The only exception was Honduras, where the second city underwent stronger growth. The urban population comprised 51.7% women and 48.3% men in Central America. The segregation and polarization of social classes was also increasing because of increased poverty and unemployment during the 1980s. This was partly caused by the increasing privatization of public services, decentralization, and the reinforcement of local governments, which all ensued from the structural readjustment programs of the International Monetary Fund. This neoliberal model of economic development in the short run resulted in increased poverty and unemployment for the urban populations. In 1982, the informal sector represented 29% of the total employment in Central America, and its share reached 40% in Managua and San Salvador. Urban unemployment increased from 2.2% in 1980 to 12% in 1988 in Guatemala; from 8.8% to 13.1% in Honduras; and from 10.4% to 20.8% in Panama. In the political arena, the process of democratization was underway, with civil presidents taking power and promoting privatization and deregulation of the economy. There was a close relationship between the urban social structure, the economy, and politics in the region. In Costa Rica, during the Arias administration between 1986 and 1990, a program was implemented creating 80,000 new homes, and in El Salvador there was an increasing demand to find a negotiated solution to the military conflict. These new political and economic perspectives could lead to genuine popular participation in solving urban problems.     

从人口城市化到农民市民化的演变研究

从人口城市化到农民市民化是时代发展的理论诉求。除了人口城市化含义与测度指标的局限外,从时代发展、政策诉求还有现实理论来看,都有必要全面开展农民市民化研究。通过探讨农民市民化的内涵与外延,归纳了人口城市化与农民市民化的联系与区别,指出农民市民化是人口城市化、人口社会化和人口现代化的统一,是对人口城市化的理论发展。     

推进北京郊区城市化进程的战略抉择

城市现代化和郊区城市化的过程是实现城乡一体化的过程。郊区城市化要打破二元结构 ,缩小城郊之间的差别 ,实现城乡融合 ,协调发展。目前 ,北京郊区还不足以通过农村的经济积累为城市化迅速发展支付必要的成本 ,各省富裕劳动力向沿海地区流动也对本市农村劳动力向非农产业的就业转移产生影响。因此 ,有必要采取一些措施 ,推进郊区城市化进程     

Urban Housing as an Issue of Redistribution through Planning? The Case of Dhaka City

The rapid growth of population, the mushrooming of poor settlements and unplanned urbanization have crucial implications for the efficiency and equity of urban services. The resultant infringements of critical human rights throw into focus the importance of housing as a social policy issue. Urban services are strained in Dhaka city. Urban management has been disrupted as a result of spatial encroachment and environmental degradation. In addition to land scarcity, land speculation and endemic corruption, the high price of land is also a product of the system of land registration. The dearth of valuable urban land, together with delays in urban planning and its implementation, have made the acquisition of land for housing prohibitively expensive for middle and low‐income households. Consequently, the quality of the housing environment is deteriorating. The problem of housing finance is intrinsically linked to its affordability, being currently the prerogative only of the affluent. This article delineates the inherent lack of integrated urban planning, the lacunae within institutions responsible for urban management – and, contextually, the nature of housing as a social policy issue, where reinforced, coordinated planning and administration could ensure distributive benefits even to the poor.     

北京市人口半城镇化研究

改革开放以来特别是实行市场经济体制以来,北京市的半城镇化人口数量和人口半城镇化率整体上呈逐渐增长态势.造成北京市人口半城镇化程度逐渐加重的直接原因,是城市流动人口增长快而流动人口转化为城镇户籍人口的比例低;具体来说,是由北京市经济增长、 产业结构升级带来的对劳动力需求的拉力,其他地区在经济、 社会发展水平上与首都存在的较大差距形成的推力,严格控制城镇户籍人口的政策和不断上涨的房产价格造成的迁移阻力,空间承载力对人口容量构成的现实约束力综合作用的结果.要抑制和缓解北京市人口半城镇化状况,需要采取分流拉力、 化解推力、 减小阻力和提升承载力的综合措施.