Demography of Indian aging, 2001-2051

India is the second largest country in the world, with 72 million elderly persons above 60 years of age as of 2001, compared to China's 127 million. One of the objectives of this paper is to assess the emerging scenario of elderly for the first half of the 21st century. According to projections, the elderly in the age group 60 and above is expected to increase from 71 million in 2001 to 179 million in 2031, and further to 301 million in 2051; in the case of those 70 years and older, they are projected to increase from 27 million in 2001 to 132 million in 2051. Among the elderly persons 80 and above, they are likely to improve their numbers from 5.4 million in 2021 to 32.0 million in 2051. The increasing number and proportion of elderly will have a direct impact on the demand for health services and pension and social security payments. Mobilizing resources for geriatric care and providing sufficient maintenance for the elderly will emerge as a major responsibility for heath-care providers and pension economists.     

Policymaking for Diversity Among the Aged in India

Abstract

Population aging is occurring rapidly in India, and the implications of an aging society are likely to be experienced in an adverse manner unless immediate steps are taken to provide social security for all of India's older population. Current provision by central and state governments is grossly inadequate. This article analyzes the major Indian states across three income groups and describes the differences and inequalities across states and rural/urban areas with regard to income, living arrangements, pension benefits, etc. The efforts by central and state governments to meet the needs of older persons are outlined and critiqued. Suggestions are made for the establishment of more equitable income security, and health and social services schemes.     

Employment Population Age-Share Differences: An International Comparison of the Economic Impact of Population Aging

International comparisons of the economic impact of population aging across nations can give valuable insights regarding which policies are most effective in addressing aging-related economic issues. Traditional old-age dependency ratios, by not accounting for differences in labor force participation rates, can be misleading. A new measure, the difference between an age group's share of total employment and its share of the total adult population, is developed and shown to be empirically sensitive to different policy actions. The analysis is built upon readily available and comparable International Labour Organization age-group data on population and labor force participation rates.     

Aging in Asia: A cultural,socio-economical and historical perspective

Asia has about 60% of the world population and population aging is occurring more rapidly in Asia than in Western countries. The group aged 65 years and above will increase from 207 million in 2000 to 857 million in 2050, a staggering increase of 314%. The diversity in economic, demographic, religious, cultural and geo-political factors in Asia is unparalleled by any other continent, and is, in part, contributory to the rapid rise in population aging. By 2050, those under 15 years old will have shrunk from 30% in 2000 to 19%, while those aged 65 years and above will increase from 6% to 18%. In addition, the gender divide still persists with 100 elderly women to 70 elderly men. These projected demographic changes pose three major challenges: 1) how best to address the rising population of the group aged 65 years and above, 2) how to address the shrinking population of the young as well as the working adults, and 3) how to address the problems arising from the disproportionate increase in older women than men. From now to 2050, it will be expeditious for each country in Asia to look into ways of reversing the decline in total fertility rates (TFRs) and restore to replacement levels. If not, at least introduce measures to halt its free fall. Due to the complexity of factors that have influenced the fall in TFRs in Asia, it will be a daunting task to reverse this fall. There is no “single size fits all” solution to this complex problem. Research work in this short-term strategy in addressing the aging population is urgent. In the longer term, the East-West Centre have suggested four modalities, 1) establish policies and programmes that enhance traditional Asian systems of family support for the elderly; 2) introduce policy reform that encourages the elderly who are still capable of remaining in the work force; 3) create institutions and systems that support high levels of personal saving; and 4) formulate public programmes, including pension schemes and national healthcare systems. We need to work while there is time.