基于RS与ANN的上市公司财务困境预测模型的实证研究

本文以中国上市公司作为研究对象,采用粗糙集理论(RS)客观选出预测模型指标体系,以因财务状况异常而被列为特别处理公司(ST公司)作为界定上市公司的财务困境标志,采用人工神经网络(ANN)寻找最佳的利用公开财务数据预测中国上市公司财务困境的模型。我们的研究结果表明,总资产报酬率等18个包括现金流量类指标的财务指标有较强的区分财务困境公司和财务健康公司的能力;行业类型和资产规模对于上市公司财务困境预测具有至关重要的作用;运用ANN建立的神经网络模型有较强和较稳定的预测能力。     

概率神经网络在财务预警实证中的应用

建立切合企业实际的财务预警系统,具有降低企业经营风险、投资风险以及防范金融危机的积极作用.在充分考察财务困境研究领域现状的基础上,建立一套适合于我国企业的财务状况识别指标体系.本文将概率神经网络(PNN)应用在财务困境研究领域,建立了财务预警模型.结果表明,该预警模型具有较高的预测准确率和良好的操作性.其短期(一年期)和中期(三年期)预测准确率分别为87.5%和81.25%.     

企业内部评价指标体系的重建

<正> 企业内部评价指标体系是指企业从其经营管理的需要出发,建立起的一系列体现企业经营、财务状况的指标体系,这些指标侧重于为企业提供预警的功能。该内部评价指标体系有别于为投资人、债权人等外部关系人提供的一般财务分析指标体系。 企业内部评价的主要目的在于提供消费者期望与企业经营目标是否协调一致的信息,企业内部评价指标体系的重建,应以这一目的为基础,反映企业最关心或最应     

企业集团运行机制研究:掏空、救助还是风险共担?

为什么企业集团能够在发展中国家发展壮大?一个重要的原因在于,企业集团风险共担机制代替了发达市场的部分有益功能,弥补了发展中市场的缺失。为了检验风险共担假说,本文对证券交易所2011～2015年流通的公司债券进行研究,发现当大股东财务状况或相对于公司财务状况较好时,投资者预测到资源会从大股东流向公司,降低了债券成本;相反,大股东财务状况或相对于公司财务状况较差时,投资者预测到资源会从公司流向大股东,增加了债券成本。此外,本文还发现,公司不确定性风险越小,大股东财务状况与债券成本之间的负相关关系越弱。这给我们的启示是市场制度环境会对企业组织形式产生重要的影响,不能生搬硬套美国等发达市场的经验。     

地方政府财务状况评价模型的构建研究

已有很多研究试图通过财务状况的概念来探索改进地方政府财务状况的措施.然而,衡量财务状况时,需要解决两个棘手的问题:构建财务状况模型时应该考虑还是排除社会经济环境因素的影响;衡量提供公共服务水平所需的地方政府财务状况保障.笔者构建了一个模型来衡量地方政府的财务状况,包括一个衡量公众接受公共服务质量的变量,并提出衡量社会经济环境变量的新举措,使财务状况和社会经济环境可以同时考虑.用该模型评价地方政府的财务状况能尽量减少社会经济环境的影响,并最大化基准的价值,使地方政府之间的比较更加简单和有效.     

基于港口业上市公司财务状况的模糊综合评价

本文根据港口业上市公司的经营特点,创建了包括偿债能力、盈利能力、经营能力和成长能力4类3层的财务状况评价指标体系.在确定各类及其各项指标的权重系数和创建各项指标隶属度函数的基础上,建立了港口业上市公司财务状况的模糊综合评判数学模型,实现了对企业财务实力的总体评价.由此,为制定提升企业财务实力的经营战略提供了科学依据.     

财务分析中动态图表模型的设计与应用

一、引言 财务分析是指以财务会计报表的有关数据资料为依据,对一定时期企业的财务状况和经营成果进行分析,以评价、判断企业在经营过程中的利弊得失、财务状况及预测发展趋势,为改进企业未来财务管理工作提出整改举措的书面报告.     

新冠肺炎疫情下涉农中小企业财务困境预测

运用国泰安数据库创业板中涉农中小企业的财务数据,对其2018—2020年的财务状况进行分析,使用Z值计分法和LPM方法预测其财务状况,经互相比对,得出11家中小企业2018—2020年财务状况均遭受重大打击的结论。面对严重的财务困境,需要政府和金融机构有针对性地采取帮扶措施,以助涉农中小企业渡过难关。同时,涉农中小企业自身亦须调整产品结构,强化技术创新,推进生产、经营、管理方式的转型升级,增强企业核心竞争力,实现发展振兴。     

基于BP神经网络的上市公司财务预警研究

文章采用BP神经网络方法,以263家制造业上市公司的截面财务指标作为学习样本,并使用76家制造业上市公司作为检验样本,建立了制造业上市公司财务预警模型.研究结果表明与没有区分行业的通用预警模型相比,分行业的BP神经网络财务预警模型的预测精度有了较大提高,为广大投资者和监管机构预测公司财务状况提供了可靠的依据.BP神经网络在分析和研究我国上市公司的财务状况方面,具有广泛的应用前景.     

对现金流量表与利润表结合的合并报表的分析

本文主要探讨利用现金流量表的信息来分析企业现金流量状况、财务状况及企业战略管理情况，并结合企业其他报表等相关资料及传统的财务分析成果，从理论上分析了现金流量表的优点，并且构建了基于现金流量表的合并报表指标体系。     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.