1980 ASEAN programme roundup: a model in the making

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) experts and heads of national population programs held their 4th meeting in Singapore from November 24-28, 1980. Program heads resolved to take steps to link their national activities in the population field with those of the ASEAN Population Program and carry out studies and a joint programming exercise in 1981. Progress reports on the following Phase 1 projects were given: 1) integration of population and rural development policies and programs in ASEAN countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand; 2) development of an inter-country modular training program for personnel in population and rural development; 3) multi-media support for population programs in the context of rural development in ASEAN countries; 4) utilization of research findings in population and family planning for policy formulation and program management in ASEAN countries; and 5) migration in relation to rural development. Phase 2 projects approved by ASEAN country participants were also discussed: 1) institutional development and exchange of personnel, 2) women in development, 3) developing and strengthening national population information systems and networks in ASEAN countries, 4) population and development dynamics and the man/resource balance, 5) studies on health and family planning in ASEAN countries, 6) population migration movement and development, and 7) development of ASEAN social indicators.     

ASEAN to have common population projects

The ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) agreed to cosponsor population programs, especially for the rural and underprivileged. An attempt will be made to integrate population programs with development programs. The feasibility of using research findings for developing and implementing family planning programs will be studied. The development of an intercountry personnel training program for pouplation and development programs will be considered. Multimedia support for population programs will also be studied.     

Assessment of ASEAN population programme

The objectives of the 5th meeting of the ASEAN Heads of Population Program, held at Chiang Mai during November 1981, were the following: to discuss and consider the midterm reviews of some of the Phase 1 projects; to discuss and consider the ASEAN population experts' views on the progress made in the rest of the phase 1 projects; to discuss and consider the progress made in the implementation of the phase 2 projects; to discuss and consider the ASEAN population experts' recommendations on the ASEAN population program in the 1980s based on the report of the programming exercise submitted by the consultant in the expert group meeting; and to discuss administrative and other problems faced by the program implementors in the operationalization of the ongoing ASEAN population projects and provide appropriate directions to solve such problems. As a result of the programming exercise, the meeting established the directions for the future ASEAN population program and strongly recommended the continuation, intensification, and expansion of the ASEAN population program. A total of 12 projects comprise the ASEAN population program: 5 projects under phase 1 and 7 under phase 2. Under phase 1, 1 project has been completed, and the 1st parts of 2 other projects are in the process of implementation. Phase 2 projects, which started in September/October 1980, are all in the process of implementation. The following phase 1 projects are summarized: integration of population and rural development policies and programs; modular training for trainers of population and development agencies in ASEAN countries; multi-media support for population programs in the context of rural development in ASEAN countries; and migration in relation to rural development. The following phase 2 projects are also summarized: institutional development and exchange of personnel; women in development in ASEAN countries; and migration in relation to rural development. The following phase 2 projects are also summarized: institutional development and exchange of personnel; women in development; developing and strengthening national population information systems and networks in ASEAN countries; population and development dynamics and the human resource balance; studies on health and family planning in ASEAN countries; development of ASEAN social indicators; and population migratory movement and development.     

Determinants of Infant Mortality in Older ASEAN Economies

Infant mortality in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been declining, yet disparities remain between the nations. This paper therefore explores the determinants of infant mortality in the older ASEAN-4 economies, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Error Correction Model framework. The key findings of the study are: First, there is evidence of long-run relationships among infant mortality, education, female fertility, income and access to healthcare. Second, the determinants of infant mortality vary between countries. Female fertility emerged as the main determinant of infant mortality in Malaysia, while access to healthcare matter for infant mortality in Indonesia, and to a lesser extent for the Philippines. The income effect is significant for reducing infant mortality in Malaysia, while female education is important for Indonesia and Thailand. Third, the speed of adjustment of infant mortality rate is comparatively low in ASEAN-4.     

Adolescent fertility programs: responding to the needs of today's youth

The 1983 conference on Adolescent Fertility Management in Asia and the Pacific provided a forum for sharing information and experiences. The project was designed to stimulate interest in and strengthen existing programs on adolescent fertility in participating countries, i.e., Bangladesh, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Sri lanka, and Thailand. Specifically, the conference sought to identify adolescent fertility problems and share experiences in managing adolescent fertility programs, identify gaps in the development and implementation of adolescent fertility programs and projects, and formulate plans to meet the adolescent fertility needs of the participating countries. Capsule presentations of the experiences of the participating countries are presented. Focus is on the projects they have undertaken and proposed activities. In Bangladesh Jatio Tarum Sangha, the national youth organization, seeks to get youth involved in family planning activities through information/education/motivation programs and community development projects. Fiji proposes to establish a youth center to be operated by the Ministry of Health to reduce the incidence of unplanned pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases in adolescents and to make them more aware of sex-related health problems and the importance of responsible sex. India's Family Planning Association has initiated population education programs for youth. Several projects have been launched in Jakarta to cope with adolescent fertility problems including the adolescent health project, the Consultation Center for Adolescents, and the university-based family health project. The Family Planning Association of Nepal has completed some major programs under its youth project. The Philippines' proposed youth centers are planned to respond to the fertility related needs and problems of Filipino adolescents. Innovations of the center are: the operation of several youth-serving government and private agencies under 1 roof, and encouragement of youth participation in designing and running the center. Sri Lanka does not have much of an adolescent fertility problem. Virtually all fertility is said to occur within marriage. A study on adolescent fertility is planned. Thailand has launched several government and nongovernment programs to reach adolescents both in and out of school. Government programs include counseling services and the National Family Planning Communication for Premarriage adolescents. Key issues are identified and recommendations are made.     

Population growth,economic development and family planning

This report discusses research conducted to determine whether reduction in population growth rates contributed to the rapid economic growth of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The 5-year research projects, jointly sponsored by the UN Fund for Population Activities, the Nihon University Population Research Institute, and the East-West Population Institute, concluded that development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in these countries. The project examined 3 factors that influence the long-term productive capacity and growth of the 4 Asian economies: savings, the size of the labor force, and the quality of labor (measured by educational attainment). Available evidence indicates a strong positive contribution of population decline toward growth of savings, a growth in labor force concurrent with a decline in fertility rates which enables per capita income to rise, and an increase in 2ndary education enrollment ratios as fertility is lowered. Development factors by themselves explain no more than 1/2 of the decline in fertility observed, suggesting that family planning programs particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia since 1976 have had an important impact on fertility and economic development.     

Integrating family planning with nutrition and parasite control

At the Inter-Governmental Coordinating Committee Workshop on an Integrated Approach towards Family Planning and Health Programs held at Kuala Lumpur from March 23 to 25, 1977, the feasibility of integrating family planning with nutrition and parasite control through the proper planning of motivational considerations, resource allocation and coordination was studied in detail. Discussion focused on the experience of participating countries in generating community participation in total health programs. Malaysia reported that in the expansion of the national program into the rural areas functional integration has been the approach. In Indonesia nutrition has been an important objective of maternal and child health services. A total integrated development approach has been the objective in the Philippines where family planning information-education-communication has been integrated with nutrition programs and a pilot project on integration of family planning and parasite control has been conducted. Thailand reported on the introduction of an integrated family planning and parasite control program, while Sri Lanka reported on an integrated approach that included family planning with maternity and child health services. A recommendation of the meeting was that experimental pilot projects be established which include nutrition and parasite control elements within the framework of family planning services.     

Philippines: Association of Population Correspondents formed in the Philippines

2 major decisions were reached at the December 1979 National Workshop for ESCAP Population Correspondents in the Philippines. The first was to set up an Association of Population Correspondents in order to enhance sharing population information at the national level. A newsletter was identified as a priority. The second decision was to set up a task force under the leadership of the Executive Secretary of the Commission on Population. The task force will be responsible for the preparation of a project proposal to establish a national population information clearing-house. Associated tasks will be the organization of a baseline study of the existing agencies, their capabilities and potential roles in the future national clearing-house. Participants stated specific needs for information. Information is needed from Thailand on community-based family planning programs and Indonesia on community participation and evaluation studies on contraceptive technology. The special needs of each member nation should be identified and then fed back to them for obtaining the required information. Participants requested a list of trainers for community-based programs; listing of specific linkages between private and government agencies involved in population work; and listing of international funding agencies on research and action programs.     

Integrating parasite control and family planning

A pilot project started recently in 4 locations by the Family Planning Organization of the Philippines in cooperation with the Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning and the Asian Parasite Control Organization uses de-worming as an entry point to establish credibility for family planning workers among the target population. The ultimate goal of the project is to encourage community participation to such an extent that family planning and related efforts are sustained by the community itself and the field worker is no longer needed. Integrated parasite control/family planning projects have already gone through the 4 principal developmental stages of strategic planning, project design and development, implementation and assessment, and program maintenance in some areas since their beginnings in 1976. Support for such programs has been obtained from 3 international bodies working in family planning, and 2 others have recently indicated interest. Activities to develop criteria for project expansion are now underway. The 4 projects in the Philippines, located in Binakayan, Cavite; San Pedro, Laguna; Caramoan, Camarines Sur; and Davao City, are each staffed by a project manager, doctors, nurses, and medical technologists. The projects, especially the Caramoan project, have been quite successful, and efforts are being made to include nutrition in the integrated program.     

Comparative study on demographic-economic model-building for three selected countries of the ESCAP region

The research project involves building models for 3 selected ESCAP countries, Indonesia, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, which are at different stages of demographic transition. This project involves country level research workd esigned, implemented, and monitored with the assistance of ESCAP. Accordingly the 1st Study Directors' Meeting was held in Bangkok during November 16-30, 1979 in a series of informal interactive working sessions for Study Directors, modelling experts, and resource persons. The participants were Study Directors from the above mentioned countries and a few experts from Malaysia, Thailand, ILO, UNRISD, and IBRD. The main objective of the meeting was to help finance the basic model framework in order that National Study Directors will be able to commence their modelling work after the Meeting. As evidenced by the Report of the 1st Study Directors' Meeting, this objective was achieved. Following this meeting, the 3 case studies are being simultaneously undertaken in countries by national study teams with technical support provided by ESCAP.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

ESCAP migration study gathers momentum

A comparative study is being conducted in the ESCAP (Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) region on the relationships of migration and urbanization to development. The 1st stage of the study will entail the preparation of country reports on the census analysis of migration, urbanization and development. The 2nd stage will involve preparation of a series of national migration surveys. The 3rd phase will involve assisting member governments to formulate a comprehensive population redistribution policy as part of their national development planning. 1st-phase country reports have been completed in Sri Lanka, South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Migration in Sri Lanka has largely been rural-to-rural with little urbanization so far. The picture in South Korea has been the opposite, with rapid urbanization in the 1960s and 1970s; the government is hoping to divert some population to smaller cities away from Seoul. The pattern in the Philippines is 1 of urban primacy with the metropolis of Manila accounting for over 1/3 of the country's total population. Indonesia is characterized by a dense heartland in the Java-Bali regions. However, the rate of urbanization here has been slower. Migrants in all the countries studied are preponderantly young. The sex differential varies from country to country. The influence of migration on subsequent fertility is unknown.     

The timing of entry into motherhood in Asia: A comparative perspective

Abstract This paper examines the determinants of age at first birth from an explicitly comparative perspective in the following Asian societies: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand. The key structural variables have the same (or similar) effects in each of the groups examined. Education through primary school and beyond has a strong delaying effect on age at first birth in all eight populations. Difference of rural-urban origin does not affect the timing of motherhood in any of these societies. We also find a remarkably strong effect of shared cultural heritage. All the Confucian groups tend to behave similarly, as do the Muslim and Hindu groups.     

Towards a unified approach in macro and micro-level planning

A forum was held among population experts in the ESCAP region to discuss ways of integrating complex, macro-modular planning with micro-level, community-based population programs. The experts mentioned types of planned development projects which might have the greatest impact on fertility rates. The issue of whether population reduction targets are influenced by socioeconomic considerations or whether they, in turn, exert an influence was debated. Examples of programs from the People's Republic of China, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines were cited to point up areas where population and socioeconomic development programs are integrated. Model building and community participation were mentioned as 2 approaches to development planning.     

The United States and Japan pursue a common agenda

In July 1993, the US and Japan formed the "Common Agenda for Cooperation in Global Perspective," an economic alliance to promote health and human development, respond to challenges to global stability, protect the global environment, advance science and technology, and foster exchanges for mutual understanding. A Global Issues Initiative (GII) has been created within this framework to support family planning, HIV and sexually transmitted disease prevention and control efforts, maternal and child health, primary health care, and women's empowerment. Participation in the GII has led Japan to more than double the technical assistance it provides and to broaden its geographic focus from Asia to the entire developing world. The US continues to fund population and health programs in more than 50 countries. The Common Agenda grew out of a US-Japan development assistance policy consultation dialogue known as the "Honolulu process," which sought ways to promote mutual understanding among US and Japanese development assistance personnel (through international internships) and nongovernmental organizations and to identify specific areas for joint or parallel development projects. Cooperative activities are underway in the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, Ghana, Peru, Guatemala, Mexico, and Jamaica. Joint project evaluations have also taken place in Zambia and Ghana. The Common Agenda's Children's Health Initiative has supported such initiatives as achieving child immunization in the Newly Independent States and joint efforts to eradicate polio and micronutrient disorders. The Women in Development initiative enhances girls' education and assists women engaged in small-scale enterprises. After initial difficulties in agreeing on joint strategies, the Common Agenda has been an "overwhelmingly positive" experience with the potential to meet critical challenges, because Japan and the US account for 40% of all development assistance worldwide.     

Integrated family planning/parasite control project: a different approach to community health problems

An obstacle to the acceptance of family planning is the fact that its advantages are not immediately apparent or tangible. A way to get around this obstacle is through the use of "entry points"--projects which yield tangible results in a relatively short time. Through these entry points, the fieldworker builds credibility and wins the confidence of the people in the community he or she is serving. Thus, when the time comes, the people will be receptive to the family planning message. This strategy of the use of entry points is common to integrated projects with a community development program becoming a sort of entry point for family planning fieldworkers. 1 such project, begun quite recently by the Family Planning Organization of the Philippines (FPOP) in 4 pilot sites, uses deworming as an entry point. It is officially known as the Integrated Family Planning/Parasite Control/Nutrition Project. It is 1 of several projects cosponsored and financed by the Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning (JOICFP) and the Asian Parasite Control Organization (APCO) in almost a dozen other Asian and Latin American countries. The immediate objective of the project is to establish or increase the credibility of family planning fieldworkers among the people in a target area. Fieldwork connected with family planning is conducted alongside a related community health effort that can produce immediate and visible results. The ultimate goal is to encourage community participation to such an extent that there will no longer be a need for the fieldworker. Strategic planning involves thinking up the "backbone" and molding the "skeleton" of the project, i.e., its concept and basic policies. As the project goes into the design and development stage, additional people are drawn into it. Project experience in Thailand underscores the need to consult with local leaders. The earliest projects were initiated in 1976, but some are already showing successful results. The overall Philippine experience provided support to JOICFP Director Kunii's reiteration of his belief in the effectivity of parasite control as an entry point for population planners. Integration of the nutrition element in the project is regarded as essential.     

Changes in fertility patterns can improve child survival in Southeast Asia

This analysis of 1988 Philippine Demographic Survey data provides information on the direct and indirect effects of several major determinants of childhood mortality in the Philippines. Data are compared to rates in Indonesia and Thailand. The odds of infant mortality in the Philippines are reduced by 39% by spacing children more than two years apart. This finding is significant because infant mortality rates have not declined over the past 20 years. Child survival is related to the number of children in the family, the spacing of the children, the mother's age and education, and the risks of malnutrition and infection. Directs effects on child survival are related to infant survival status of the preceding child and the length of the preceding birth interval, while key indirect or background variables are maternal age and education, birth order, and place of residence. The two-stage causation model is tested with data on 13,716 ever married women aged 15-49 years and 20,015 index children born between January 1977 and February 1987. Results in the Philippine confirm that maternal age, birth order, mortality of the previous child, and maternal education are directly related to birth interval, while mortality of the previous child, birth order, and maternal educational status are directly related to infant mortality. Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines all show similar explanatory factors that directly influence infant mortality. The survival status of the preceding child is the most important predictor in all three countries and is particularly strong in Thailand. This factor acts through the limited time interval for rejuvenation of mother's body, nutritional deficiencies, and transmission of infectious disease among siblings. The conclusion is that poor environmental conditions increase vulnerability to illness and death. There are 133% greater odds of having a short birth interval among young urban women than among older rural women. There is a 29% increase in odds for second parity births compared to third or higher order parities. Maternal education is a strong predictor of infant survival only in the Philippines and Indonesia. Adolescent pregnancy is a risk only in Indonesia. Socioeconomic factors are not as important as birth interval, birth order, and maternal education in determining survival status.     

A worldwide view of population trends

The UN Population Commission held its 20th session in New York from 29 January to 9 February, with an agenda that included reviews of UN action to implement recommendations of the 1974 World Population Conference; of progress in population work by the UN Population Division; and of the medium-term plan, 1980-1983. Of a total of 29 countries and 22 organizations participating, 5 countries were Asian--India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand. The report on monitoring of trends and policies was the most detailed examination of the global demographic situation yet available, and revealed the following facts: 1) 80% of the population of the developing countries are in countries which the governments have considered that a slower rate of population growth would be desirable; 2) among developed countries, nearly all governments preferred their rate of population growth to remain as high as or become higher than at present; 3) among the developing countries, 6 of the 8 nations having a population greater than 50 million wished to reduce their rate of growth; 4) 80% of all countries considered the rate of population growth the be of basic importance for development; and 5) with respect to mortality, about 75% of all governments of developing countries considered the prevailing level to be unsatisfactory; while among developed countries the same proportion considered the prevailing level to be acceptable. As a result of its deliberations on the report, the Population Commission endorsed the Population Information Network concept of a decentralized network for the coordination of regional, national, and nongovernmental population information activities.     

A Common Weight Approach to Construct Composite Indicators: The Evaluation of Fourteen Emerging Markets

This study presents an ongoing project, emerging market (EM) evaluation project, of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER). The purpose of this project is to construct a composite indicator (CI) named as growth potential index (GPI) for selecting the promising EMs, in which to begin new or expand existing business is attractive to governments, firms, and investors. However, weight determination is one of the most difficult tasks in the construction process of a CI. A new approach inspired by the Z score and rooted in data envelopment analysis (DEA) is proposed to objectively determine the common weights for constructing the GPI without requiring data normalisation beforehand. The same dataset is used to compare the proposed common weight approach with the equal weighting method (currently used by the TIER), the widely used DEA-CI model, and the first common weight DEA-CI model. Spearman’s rank correlation test revealed a high positive correlation between the GPIs obtained by the proposed approach and each considered method. The major findings include: (1) China is the most promising EM; (2) Argentina, China, Malaysia, Poland, and Russia are above-average EMs; (3) India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Thailand are below-average EMs; and (4) of the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), China is the best EM, and India is the worst EM.     

Using census data for household projections: an overview of results from the HOMES Project

"This article provides an overview of the household projection model HOMES [a computer model developed to forecast the number and characteristics of households] and presents new household projections for six countries--China, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines. The household projections are based on recently released population projections from The World Bank and on rules governing living arrangements quantified with the latest available census or demographic survey for each country. Growth in the number of households to the year 2030 is projected along with changes in household membership and the dependency burden."