流动人口的生育意愿与生育行为差异研究

文章利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心于2009年在北京朝阳区、广东东莞市和浙江诸暨市组织进行的流动人口调查数据,分析了流动人口的生育意愿与生育行为之间的关系。研究发现,流动人口中既存在生育意愿与生育行为悖离的一面又有一致的一面,在4个维度上均有所表现,在时间、间隔和性别上二者更多的表现为悖离,在数量上更多的表现为一致。研究还发现,年龄、初婚年龄、初育年龄、受教育程度、职业角色、已有孩子的性别结构等对生育意愿与生育行为的悖离有显著影响。     

Publicity and education are fundamental to China's family planning programme

This article summarizes and discusses the documents concerning family planning promulgated by the Communist Party, National People's Congress and the Government of China since the start of China's family planning program. In 1955 a document was issued entitled the Directive Concerning Population Control pointing out that the public should be made aware of birth control. In 1965 the summary of the 2nd Conference on Urban Work discussed ways of explaining the significance of family planning, to make it a voluntary action of the people. In 1980 the necessity of 1 child per couple was pointed out and policies were formulated regarding ideological and political education. During the 80's several documents were issued which stressed the voluntariness and initiative of the people in practicing birth control, and that any type of coercion was prohibited. For 30 years the fundamental practice of strengthening publicity and education and opposing coercion has remained unchanged no matter how birth policies have been scored in population control since 1979.     

广东人口意愿生育数量的影响因素分析

本文利用广东省人口与计划生育委员会与中山大学人口研究所2004年10月进行的题为"广东省人口生育意愿研究"的抽样调查数据,分析了个人因素、政策因素以及生育目的对广东人口意愿生育数量的影响.     

中国流动人口梯次流动的实证研究

利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心2009年在北京朝阳区、广东东莞市和浙江诸暨市组织进行的流动人口调查数据,对中国流动人口梯次流动进行实证研究。研究发现,流动人口的地理梯次流动、职业梯次流动和家庭梯次流动均不同程度地存在,地理梯次流动受到个人特征、流动经历和父辈的"探路者"效应的影响,职业梯次流动受到流动经历、职业稳定性以及与流入地居民来往状况的影响,家庭梯次流动受到家庭成员特征、耕地面积、流动经历、流入地亲人数量的影响。     

The population growth in the city of Beijing and our present tasks (author's transl)]

Concern for the rapid population growth since 1949 of China's second largest city, Beijing, is discussed in terms of population control, migration, and rises in the productive development of the city. From 1949 to 1963 the natural rate of population increased from 7.5 to 35.3%; however, after the introduction of a birth control program in 1971, the natural increase of population declined to 4.02% in 1977. From 1949-1978, the average birth rate was 145,000/year while the average death rate was 46,500/year, leaving the annual average increase in population at 98,000. The natural population increased by 2,340,000 from 1949-1978. The massive population growth since 1949 affected the economic development of the city as well as the country. Cultivated land near Beijing increased from 1949-1952, but because of urban development the land for cultivation decreased by 1,527,000 market acres from that available in 1949 (7,965,000 market acres). Population density increased from 430 persons/ square kilometer in 1962 to 506 persons/ square kilometer in 1978. From 1953 to 1978, production and consumption rates fluctuated with a net balance of only 2020 million catties in the 26 years, causing the need for products to be imported from other areas of the country. Unemployment is exacerbated by the lack of jobs and increasing numbers of people. Transportation problems also have developed. New efforts are being made to inform people of population control by the Beijing Population Association begun in 1979, because Beijing's population will continue to increase until 1989 due to the baby boom years during the fifties which created a 2nd boom in the late 1970s as well as the lack of education on population control. Other programs are being developed to, 1) educate people on economical measures of reducing the population, 2) promote governmental departments to improve birth control programs by means of social security services, child health agencies, and nursing schools, 3) propagandize eugenics and genetic education to enhance the population, and 4) reinforce the propaganda on birth control and technical guidance.     

Pakistan: re-organization at the top

New measures for population program planning have been introduced in Pakistan. 3 wings were added in the Population Planning Council: administration, coordination, and planning; operation; and technical. New elements in the program include: 1) setting up of new directorates; 2) opening of more family welfare clinics, model clinics, and sterilization centers; and 3) expansion of training facilities for medical and paramedical personnel. 2 national training institutions have been established: the Population Training Centre at Lahore, and the National Institute of Advanced Training at Hyderabad. 16 centers have training courses for doctors performing sterilization. There has been a restructuring of the information, education, and communication aspects of the program. The commercial distribution of contraceptives has become an important element. There are efforts to relate the program to other development programs.     

The research of population science must initiate a new situation]

The basis for initiating a new situation in population research lies in Hu Yaobang's address at the 12th National Congress when he said that the population problem is of extreme importance and that birth control is a basic national policy. The rapid population growth, he continued, influences income, food, clothing, shelter, education and work, and it might even influence the stability of a society. Thus, birth control work, particularly in the countryside, must never be lax. But if the work is done well, then population control can be successful. There already exists a good basis for population research. Since the 1970s, demography developed rapidly, whether it was in population theory, population control, disseminating information, training cadres for census work, projecting population, or in developing professional relationships on an international level. The Population Association of China, established in 1981, was followed by population associations in the provinces, cities, and autonomous regions. In the last 2 years, the Population Association of China convened 5 specialized meetings. Currently China has a Population Research Center and 217 offices, plus demographic studies at the People's University and Fudan University. In initiating a new situation in demography, one should study new situations, sum up new experiences, and solve new problems. The national policy is to control population numbers and raise population quality. This can be done by educating peasants that female babies are worthwhile, protecting mothers who bear female babies, and encouraging eugenics.     

流动人口带眷流动意愿研究

文章利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心于2009年在北京朝阳区、广东东莞市和浙江诸暨市组织进行的流动人口调查数据,分析流动人口带眷流动意愿。研究发现,流动人口最愿意带迁自己的配偶、父亲和子女;社会认同、长期居留意愿和年龄因素对于流动人口的带眷流动意愿有着较为显著的影响,其他因素如性别、担心父母的养老、受教育程度、住房来源和来流人地的时间等因素对于流动人口带迁不同家庭成员有显著影响。     

People's Republic of China Law on Population and Birth Planning

Plans by the Chinese government for drafting and passing a national law on population and birth planning were first reported in 1978. Progress toward that politically sensitive goal has been, however, very slow. During the past two decades, the legal basis of China's birth planning program was limited to provincial legislation. By the late 1990s, birth planning was the only major national policy area that did not have national enabling legislation. In January 2000 the State Birth Planning Commission sent a draft of the law on population to the State Council for interagency review and party approval. At the end of 2000, the National People's Congress placed the law on its 2001 agenda. After the required multiple reviews, and with some changes, the Standing Committee of the NPC passed the Law on Population and Birth Planning on 29 December 2001, and on the same day President Jiang Zemin signed and promulgated the Law. The Law is to come into effect on 1 September 2002. The background and significance of this legislation are discussed in detail in the opening article in the present issue of this journal. The author of the article, Edwin A. Winckler, also prepared an English translation of the Law on Population and Birth Planning. This translation is reproduced below. It is followed by a note by the translator.     

An Empirical Study on the Laddering Migration of China’s Floating Population

Using data collected by Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China in 2009 in Chaoyang district of Beijing, Dongguan city of Guangdong province and Zhuji city of Zhejiang province, this paper does an empirical study on the laddering migration of China’s floating population. The findings indicate that floating population’s geographical laddering migration, occupational laddering migration and family laddering migration exist in the process of migration. Geographical laddering migration is influenced by demographic characteristics, migration experience and pathfinder effect of parents. Occupational laddering migration is influenced by migration experience, stability of occupation and social interaction with local residents in destination. Family laddering migration is influenced by family member’s characteristics, area of arable land, migration experience and the number of relatives in destination.     

广州市人口空间分布变动与郊区化研究——兼与北京、上海的比较

利用第三、四、五次人口普查资料,对广州市人口的空间分布变动进行了详细的分析。结果表明自1980年代以来,广州一直处于城市化和郊区化并存的阶段,一方面大量外来人口的进入使都市区的总人口急剧增加,另一方面从1990年代起中心城区的人口出现较明显的郊区化现象。但与北京、上海相比,广州人口郊区化进程显得较为迟缓,其主要原因是自然条件的限制、行政区划的制约和城市空间发展政策的影响。     

Bangladesh: programs geared to meet population goals; communication as a major factor in UNFPA funded projects

The population policy of Bangladesh is aiming for a zero population growth rate at a suitable level of equilibrium. It is hoped that a net reproductive rate of 1.0 will be achieved by 1990, and that by 1985 fertility will be reduced to replacement level. Various measures to attain these goals have been suggested and they include such ones as the integration of family planning programs with other development efforts through a multisectoral approach and the introduction of incentives and disincentives for acceptance of the idea of the small family. Communications by radio and television play a critical role in the program to reduce fertility. UNFPA-funded projects emphasize education, motivation, and communication with the hope of creating a favorable attitude towards family planning and the concept of the small family. Numerous projects in progress are mentioned with regard to their current status. These projects include: rural development cooperatives and population education; pilot projects for family planning motivation and services in industry and on plantations; population education in agricultural extension; strengthening (IEM) information, education, and motivation and training; population awareness for out-of-school youth; a population education program for the Ministry of Education; and a national population information service.     

Philippines: decentralized approach shows results

In the Philippines several steps have been taken to meet the challenge of increasing population growth. Commencing with the Republic Act 6365, known as the Population Act (1971) program directives focus on achieving and maintaining population levels most conducive to the national welfare. In 1978 a Special Committee was constituted by the President to review the population program. Pursuant to the Committee's findings certain changes were adopted. The thrust is now towards longterm planning to ensure a more significant and perceptible demographic impact of development programs and policies. Increasing attention is paid to regional development and spatial distribution in the country. The 1978-82 Development Plan states more clearly the interaction between population and development. The National Economic and Development Authority, the central policy and planning agency of the government, takes charge of formulation and coordinating the broader aspects of population policy and integrating population with socioeconomic plans and policies. At present the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) is implementing a project known as the Population/Development Planning and Research (PDPR) project with financial support from the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). This project promotes and facilitates the integration of the population dimension in the planning process. It does this by maintaining linkages and instituting collaborative mechanisms with the different NEDA regional offices and sectoral ministries. It also trains government planners in ways of integrating population concerns into the development plan. PDPR promotes the use of population and development research for planning purposes and policy formation. The Philippine Development Plan, 1978-82, recognized that an improvement in the level of 1 sector reinforces the performance of the other sectors. Since the establishment of the National Population Program 12 years ago, population and family planning have been successfully integrated with various development sectors, notably, labor, health, and education. Through the policies of integration, multiagency participation, and partnership of the public and private sectors, the Commission on Population uses existing development programs of government and private organizations as vehicles for family planning information and services and shares the responsibility of implementing all facets of the population program with various participating agencies in the government and private sector.     

World Population Day '93 observed

President Abdur Rahman Biswas inaugurated the World Population Day '93 at the Osmani Memorial Hall in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on July 11. He stressed the importance of reducing the national population growth rate from 2.03% in 1923 to 1.82% by the 1995. The event was organized jointly by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the Directorate of Family Planning, and the United Nations Population fund (UNFPA). The president expressed his deep concern over the population growth rates in developing countries, which are much higher than resources. He noted with satisfaction that 40% of the eligible couples in the country practice family planning (FP) and expressed hope that this could be raised to 50% by 1995. If the program becomes successful, ideal families would consist of two children by 2005. He later presented prizes and certificates to field workers, ulemas, traditional birth attendants, FP depot holders, and the workers of nongovernmental organizations for their commendable services in Fp and maternal-child health services. The Health and Family Welfare minister in his speech warned that if the current population growth is not checked, the consequences would be disastrous, which could be averted by adopting new strategies. The deputy minister for Health and Family Welfare illustrated the threat of population escalation and recounted some of the recent government control measures. The secretary, Ministry of Health Family Welfare, said that at the present rate of growth the Bangladeshi population would double in 34 years. The director general, Directorate of Family Planning, said that the FP program has become accountable with a system of incentives and disincentives. Earlier, the UNFPA country director in his speech remarked that it was crucial for the entire world to solve the population problem. In the morning, in the main cities, hundreds of people involved in national FP activities paraded to demonstrate the social legitimacy of the Bangladeshi Fp program.     

Brief

This brief article discusses population dynamics, contraception, and abortion in Shanghai, China. China's policy of rapidly developing medium and small cities and towns is coming to fruition. China now has 666 cities, of which 75 are megacities, 192 are medium-sized cities, and 399 are small cities. It is expected that there will be about 800 cities by the year 2000. Population movement of the floating population has increased. During 1990-95 the domestic migrant population was 3.02% of total population. 24.44 million (67.1%) were floating population who moved within provinces, and 11.98 million floated between provinces. Population is affected by declines in the supply of water. The Yellow River spans 5400 km and passes through nine provinces, including the two most populous provinces of Henan and Shandong. The Yellow River empties into the Yellow Sea, when the river is flowing. Since 1972, stretches of the Yellow River have run dry for as many as 683 km. The driest stretch of the river tends to be from Kaifeng City in Henan Province to its mouth at the Yellow Sea. The river bed has been dry for as many as 136 days. The lack of water from the Yellow River impacts on the millions who live along its banks near the Yellow Sea. The Shanghai Population Information Center reports that married women's abortion rate has declined and unmarried women's abortion rate has increased. An information program on contraception and contraceptive services for unmarried women is planned for completion by Spring 1998. It is hoped that the family planning program will be as successful in decreasing abortion rates among the unmarried as among the married. In the community of Pengpu New Village, Zabei District, a new family planning program was established which promotes the concept of family planning among nongovernmental organizations, the unemployed, and the floating population.     

A fresh look at family planning communication

As a step toward development of a national information, education, and communication (IEC) plan, a reassessment of such efforts practiced by the agencies involved was undertaken. A paper published in 1978 by the Research Utilization Unit of the Population Information Division, Population Center Foundation, reviewed materials used and accounts of experience in conceptualizing and communicating family planning messages by 12 private and public sector agencies. The most common concepts employed by the agencies were small family size, responsible parenthood, family welfare, community and national development, birth spacing, delayed marriage, contraceptive use-effectiveness, "manliness," delayed 1st pregnancy, value and rights of children, human behavior and social environment, and population dynamics. Most of the messages were conceptualized and developed through formal and informal consultation with field staff. The need to consider the specific needs of target audiences was considered crucial, and thus decentralization of IEC production was recommended. Such decentralization has been a goal of the Philippine program since 1976, but the effort has been hampered by lack of local training and resources, and of studies to support successful implementation. Mass and mixed media approaches were found to be used by most of the agencies, although a reliance on interpersonal approaches was found to be most prevalent in rural areas. Among recommendations for policy makers were development of a systematized data base for IEC materials, regional capabilities in research and development, and studies of funding and existing resources.     

Population education: a life experience course for the young

The Philippines is the 1st country to adopt an extensive population education program at an early stage of its national population program. Population education is a "life experience" course with the following 5 areas of study: 1) demography, 2) determinants of population growth, 3) consequences of population growth, 4) human sexuality and reproduction, and 5) planning for the future. Many institutions in the Philippines are teaching the course materials and training teachers for the course. Difficulties encountered in initiating the course are: 1) lack of administrative support, 2) lack of cooperation from conservative parents, and 3) an overcrowded curriculum. It has been decided to integrate the aspects of this course into existing areas of the curriculum. Topics for future research in population are outlined. Use of the research was also covered.     

We must pay attention to the difference between the original intention and the current status of family planning]

Due to imperfections in the current family planning (FP) policy, and the differences un program implementation in urban and rural areas, the fertility of the urban population with higher IQ scores is under control but this is not the case for the rural population. Among rural couples, one child is rare and two or three are commonplace, while in cities over 70% of couples are having one child. In the metropolitan cities, this figure is about 90%. In the rural areas, provision of education is a serious problem because of insufficient resources, a lack of qualified teachers and inadequate facilities. At the present, at least 3 million school age children in rural areas can not go to primary school. Besides there is a big contrast in FP practice between Han nationality and minorities. Population growth is basically under control among the more advanced Han nationally but not among the less advances minority nationalities. This growth rate among the minority population was about 50.27/1000 in the past five years, which is alarming. Furthermore, the couples given opportunity to have a second child are often those whose first child had birth defects or is mentally retarded, whereas couples with a normal child can have only one child. This has become a vicious circle, since subsequent children are more likely to have the same birth defects. It was discovered from a 1983-85 survey that the prevalence of birth defects was 12.8/1000. The current situation is that the fertility of urban, educated, and healthy people is restricted while the less educated, those living in less developed areas, and those with health defects are having more children. The outcome of this situation is the decline of national population quality, which greatly deviates from the original intention of the FP.     

The participation of non-governmental organizations in the Philippine population program

In 1957 the National Council of Churches in the Philippines (NCCP) established the Family Welfare Center, offering an educational program in family planning; it was subsequently expanded and reorganized into the Planned Parenthood Movement of the Philippines. Since its creation in 1970 the Philippine Population Program has brought together government, private, and religious activities. Under the 1987-92 development plan nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) will be taking a more active role in the implementation of the population program by contributing to the maternal and child health/family planning and the information, education, and communication (IEC) components. There are more than 50 private organizations engaged in such population activities. These include national women's organizations and development NGOs with a mass base. The Family Planning Organization of the Philippines is carrying out a 3-year comparative study of the effectiveness of community volunteers in the acceptance of natural family planning. The Reproductive Health Philippines has completed a follow-up of Depo Provera defaulters in a previous clinical study of Depo Provera acceptors conducted in 1985-87. IEC support from various medical and social organizations also helped advance family planning and population awareness of the program. The Mary Johnston Hospital and Iglesia ni Kristo have been front-runners in sterilization through their mobile teams and regular clinics. On the negative side, funding constraints are threatening the very existence of some NGOs. Even those that do not face such constraints face problems related to cost effectiveness, priority setting, capability building, and staff development. A survey of the Population Center Foundation identified some urgent concerns: sharing experience in self-reliance, enhancement of the managerial skills of staff, and funding problems. NGOs complement the family planning services of the government as well as focus on the smooth flow of IEC activities.     

After the demographic transition: policy responses to low fertility in four Asian countries

In the low fertility countries of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand, policy-makers are concerned about the consequences of low growth. In South Korea, a family planning (FP) program was instituted in the early 1960s, and fertility declined to 1.6 by 1987. Rural fertility is still higher at 1.96, and abortion rates are high. 32.2% of fertility reduction is accomplished through abortion. South Korean population will not stabilize until 2021, at 50.6 million people. The elderly are expected to increase and strain housing, energy, and land resources. Government support for FP is being reduced, while private sector services are being enhanced. Government sterilization programs have been reduced significantly, and revisions in the Medical Insurance Law will cover part of contraceptive cost. Integrated services are being established. Many argue for an emphasis on birth spacing, child and family development, sex education, and care of the elderly. In Taiwan, replacement level fertility was reached in 1983. Policy in 1992 recommended increasing fertility from 1.6 to 2.1. The aim was to stabilize population without pronatalist interventions. Regardless of policy decisions, population growth will continue over the next 40 years, and the extent of aging will increase. In Singapore since the 1960s, the national government focused on encouraging small families through fertility incentives, mass media campaigns, and easy access to FP services. Fertility declined to 1.4 in 1988. Since 1983, government has established a variety of pronatalist incentives. In 1989, fertility increased to 1.8. The pronatalist shift is viewed as not likely to succeed in dealing with the concern for an adequate work force to support the elderly and economic development. In Thailand, fertility declined the fastest to 2.4 in 1993. The key factors were rapid economic and social development, a supportive cultural setting, strong demand for fertility control, and a successful FP program. The goal is to reduce fertility to 1.2 by 1996. Replacement level may be reached in 2000 or 2005. Future trends are not clear.