The United Nations on World Population in 2300

The Population Division of the United Nations biennially issues detailed population estimates and projections covering the period 1950–2050. The most recent revision of these estimates and projections, the 2002 assessment, was released in February 2003. At irregular intervals, the Population Division also publishes long‐range projections. The most recent of these, covering the period up to 2150, was issued in 2000, based on the 1998 assessment. On 9 December 2003, the Population Division released the preliminary report on a new set of long‐range projections, dovetailing with the 2002 assessment, that extend over a much longer time span: up to 2300 ( http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm ). Unlike previous long‐range projections, which, apart from China and In‐dia, were prepared for large regional groupings only, the new projections are elaborated separately for 192 countries. Given the enormous uncertainties of the character of demographic trends over such an extended period, the information content of these projections is somewhat elusive. However, they are expected to be used to provide the demographic input for long‐range models of global climate change. Long‐range population projections also serve to demonstrate the unsustainability of certain seemingly plausible assumptions as to the future course of particular demographic parameters. In the present case, for example, the high‐fertility projection, reflecting a sustained total fertility rate at the relatively modest level of 2.35, by 2300 would yield a population of some 32 billion in the countries now classified as less developed. Or, in a yet more extreme exercise 0/reductio ad absurdum, maintaining constant fertility at present rates would result in a population size of some 120 trillion in the countries now classified as least developed. Apart from the “high fertility” and “constant fertility” models just cited, the projections are calculated for three additional instructive variants: “low fertility,”“medium fertility,” and “zero growth.” Underlying each of the five variants is a single assumption on mortality change: expectation of life at birth creeping up, country‐by‐country, to a 2300 level ranging between 88 and 106 years. International migration is set at zero throughout the period 2050‐2300 in each variant. Thus the projections are unabashedly stylized and surprise‐free, providing a simple demonstration of the consequences, in terms of population size and age structure, of clearly stated assumptions on the future course of demographic variables. Reproduced below is the Executive Summary of the preliminary report on the UN long‐range projections presented to a UN technical working group on long‐range projections at its December 2003 meeting in New York and slightly revised afterward. A full final report on this topic by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat will be published later in 2004.     

United Nations/World Health Organization Meeting on Socio-Economic Determinants and Consequences of Mortality,Mexico City, 19-25 June 1979

The objectives of the United Nations/World Health Organization (WHO) Meeting on Socioeconomic Determinants and Consequences of Mortality, held in Mexico City in June 1979, were the following: to review the knowledge of differential mortality and to identify gaps in the understanding of its socioeconomic determinants and consequences; to discuss the methodological and technical problems associated with data collection and analysis; to consider the policy implications of the findings presented and to promote studies on the implications of socioeconomic differentials in mortality on social policy and international development strategies; to formulate recommendations and guidelines for the utilization of the 1980 round of population censuses for in-depth studies of mortality differentials; and to stimulate national and international research on differential mortality. Participants discussed the state of knowledge of socioeconomic differentials and determinants of mortality and described the socioeconomic measures available, the methods of data collection and analysis used, and the findings themselves. A number of characteristics had been employed in the study of differential mortality, and these could be grouped under the following headings: occupation; education; housing; income, wealth; family size; and place of residence. The techniques or methods used to analyze mortality were direct and indirect methods, and these are examined. Inequalities in mortality were found to be closely associated with inequalities in social and economic conditions. Any effort to reduce or remove those inequalities would have to be based on a clear understanding of their causes and interrelationships in order to succeed. Participants indicated a desire to see a resurgence of mortality research, and some research suggestions are outlined.     

Major studies on population authorized by United States Congress

The Office of Technology Assessment, acting on a request from the U.S. Congress, will undertake 2 major population studies in the near future. The goal of the studies will be to facilitate U.S. policy formulation over the next couple of decades. The 1st study will attempt 1) to assess the impact of efforts make by national government to alter birth rates between 1960-1980; 2) to predict the effects of population growth utilizing different assumptions concerning family planning; 3) to identify the types of population issues which will emerge in the period 1980-2000; and 4) identify research priorities aimed at clarifying these issues. The 2nd study will 1) investigate current contraceptive technology; 2) attempt to define a perfect contraceptive; and 3) examine the prospects of contraceptive technology between 1980-2000.     

Population education: a life experience course for the young

The Philippines is the 1st country to adopt an extensive population education program at an early stage of its national population program. Population education is a "life experience" course with the following 5 areas of study: 1) demography, 2) determinants of population growth, 3) consequences of population growth, 4) human sexuality and reproduction, and 5) planning for the future. Many institutions in the Philippines are teaching the course materials and training teachers for the course. Difficulties encountered in initiating the course are: 1) lack of administrative support, 2) lack of cooperation from conservative parents, and 3) an overcrowded curriculum. It has been decided to integrate the aspects of this course into existing areas of the curriculum. Topics for future research in population are outlined. Use of the research was also covered.     

Biological and social determinants of body size across the life span

The accuracy of demographic models designed to project future trends of population-level health and disease can be improved by incorporating biological data. One barrier to this process are quantitative characteristics of the data themselves. Biological data are characteristically time-dependent phenomena that behave in a nonlinear fashion. To develop accurate projections of the morbidity, disability, and mortality experience among future cohorts in late life, research needs to focus on development of models that create the opportunity to distinguish all-or-none, boundaries, and latency aspects of biological factors driving demographic phenomena, development of methods to identify time-dependent effects, and development of genetically informative samples. This presentation focuses on the biology of adult body size, its behavior as a variable in statistical analyses, and strategies for the incorporation of this variable into demographic models of population aging in the United States. First, several examples of generally observed quantitative characteristics of biological variables are reviewed. To illustrate the nonlinear character of biological data, three general patterns of change with aging are presented. Next, issues concerning the measurement of body size are discussed. Scenarios describing body size over the adult life span are described. By the end of this process, recommendations for starting a dialogue between researchers interested in biological endpoints (individual weight change, disease risk) and those interested in demographic outcomes (population-level disease and disability issues) using body size will be presented.     

三峡库区人口预测与和谐长江三峡构建研究

研究了中国长江三峡库区人口容量现状。结合三峡工程建成后库区实际,利用人口动力学方法建立了三峡地区人口发展预测数学模型,由此可以定量化地预测长江三峡库区未来人口发展状态。根据我国人口政策,提出了人口发展预测和控制,推进人口发展方式转变和管理体制创新是构建和谐三峡之首要任务的建议。     

Intergenerational transfers in US county-level CO2 emissions, 2007

Research has shown that increases in carbon emissions and resulting climate change are not driven by population size alone, but also associated with industrialization, urbanization, and economic development. Further, industrialization and development may, in part, be driven by changing demographic structure, and in particular the process of population aging. Fluctuations in age composition shape aggregate production and consumption. Viewed through this lens, the carbon dioxide emissions of an analytical unit (county, province, state, nation) can be considered a product of its age composition. This analysis tests several demographic theories of age-specific production and consumption on US county-level carbon dioxide emissions. Using a modified STIRPAT framework, econometric estimates identify a positive correlation between county-level labor force participation and total carbon dioxide emissions. These effects are a result of general economic activity as opposed to growth only in energy intensive industrial sectors, a relationship that is widely hypothesized but under-developed in carbon emission estimates. In addition, results show larger households are associated with lower aggregate emissions, confirming the hypothesis that areas of declining household size will experience higher future emissions. In general, this research demonstrates the importance of adding nuance to emission estimates by integrating demographic dimensions beyond population size and growth.     

Bioecological Theory, Early Child Development and the Validation of the Population-Level Early Development Instrument

The Early Development Instrument (EDI; Janus and Offord in Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 39:1–22, 2007) project is a Canadian population-level, longitudinal research project, in which teacher ratings of Kindergarten children’s early development and wellbeing are linked to health and academic achievement variables at the individual level, and to demographic, cultural, and socioeconomic variables at the community level. In this article, we draw from Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory of human development to create a coherent theoretical framework for guiding validation research within a population-level approach to child development research in general and for the EDI project in particular. The discussion draws from a range of social and health sciences as well as validity theory. The paper seeks to align complex conceptual, theoretical, methodological, and psychometric considerations, to provide specific design, methodology, and validation recommendations for a population-level approach to studying children’s development and wellbeing, and to discuss the strengths and challenges of this approach.     

The Philippine population program: a stocktaking

Summarizes findings of the Special Committee to Review the Philippine Population Program, created by the Commission on Population to evaluate population related programs and recommend program directions for the future. The Committee conducted a 2 part study: an indepth review and analysis of existing policies and programs, evaluation of their effectiveness, and identification of organizational, statistical and policy or program related gaps and bottlenecks; and recommendations on policy and program thrusts for the next 5 years. Along with specific recommendations on program operations, service delivery, and research, the Committee made a number of important policy recommendations. Chief among these were a call for the development of a broader popultion policy, not focused only on growth but encompassing demographic, manpower, and welfare components; recognition of the need for the program to advocate an ideal family size and a desirable age for marriage; and redesign of the program on a broad scale to integrate it fully with national development plans.     

我国农村特困老人供养的研究述评

近年来,关于特困老人养老问题国内外都有一些探讨。总结国内外学者的研究成果,有利于为进一步研究提供指导。通过研究发现,国内学者特困老人养老的研究主要从特困养老制度变迁、特困养老模式、特困养老存在的问题等角度进行研究;而国外学者则更加关注孤寡老人和孤寡老年妇女养老的研究。这可以为日后理论与实践研究提供建议和研究方向。最后从加强基础理论研究、细化特困对象、强化特困老人需求研究和统筹协调相关制度等四个层面提出了未来研究的建议。     

Aging in the United Kingdom: a review of demographic trends,recent policy developments and care provision

"Although the U.K.'s population is not predicted to grow very much in the future, the population structure is changing and there is a shift towards a much older age distribution. The characteristics of demographic aging in the U.K. include a marked reduction in fertility rates, increasing rates of life expectation at birth..., increasing dependency ratios and variations in mortality and social class in old age. The U.K.'s demographic context has important implications for aged care policy and planning. This paper documents the demographic trends, reviews recent major policy changes and their impact on care provision, and discusses some of the emerging implementation issues that challenge the potential of such policies to meet the needs of an aging population."     

A review of the studies on fertility transition in China]

This article is a summary of papers and analysis in recent years on fertility transition and the association between fertility decline and socioeconomic development in China. These papers discuss the causes of fertility decline and the role of family planning programs in demographic transition. The major points are: 1. The demographic transition in China has the same characteristics as in the countries that have completed the transition. The transition had already started in the more developed areas or completed in a few large cities before family planning programs were implemented. 2. The role of family planning programs is to lead and to accelerate the demographic transition, which is the key idea of the "induced fertility transition". 3. The socioeconomic development and family planning programs worked together to affect the fertility decline, however socioeconomic development is the fundamental factor. Without the existence of the socioeconomic development, which included the changes in the function of family, traditional ideas on fertility, increased level of education, the status of women and social security system; the family planning program is not likely to make an impact.     

Household demographic factors as life cycle determinants of land use in the Amazon

This paper seeks to broaden the application of demographyto environmental studies by complementing existing macro-level approaches, which feature aggregate populations, with a micro-level approach that highlights household life cycles. I take up the case of small farm households in the Brazilian Amazon to present a theoretical framework that identifies demographic characteristics which dispose families to engage in different forms of land use as household age structures change. Empirical models show that net of theeffects of farmer background, neighborhood context, institutional context, and off-farm incomes, demographic variables indicative of the household life cycle exert significant effects on the prominence of land uses with distinct environmental ramifications. The findings not only reveal micro-level demographic factors which affect Amazon land cover, they yield implications forfuture changes in rainforest landscapes in northern Brazil, and suggest household life cycle models as an avenue for further demographic research on environmental change in Latin America and other contexts.     

The United States at mid-decade

This report examines the demographic forces at work in the US that will influence the country's future. A profile of the US population in the mid-1990s reveals that the US is the third most populated countries in the world and one of the fastest growing of the industrialized countries. 70% of this growth is due to natural increase and 30% to immigration. The first topic covered in this report, geographic patterns of growth and change, includes a consideration of regional patterns, population growth by state, residential patterns, and the increase in the number of minorities living in suburban areas. The second topic is the changing age structure, which is characterized by an aging of the population and an increase in the number of children. Racial and ethnic diversity is discussed in terms of fastest growing groups, where minorities live, the Native American population, and the impact of this diversity on political participation. Immigration is analyzed to reveal sources and destinations, linguistic diversity, effects on schools and the labor market, and socioeconomic effects. The section on American families focuses on trends in marriage and divorce, types of households and families, and household patterns by race/ethnicity. The last topic looks at the distribution of income and poverty as well as at regional and state differences, race/ethnicity differences, the effects of marital status on income, who constitutes the poor, and how income is distributed. In conclusion, it is noted that America's social and economic future depends upon whether current demographic trends will lead to a fragmented and divisive society or to a stronger nation built upon diversity.     

Indigenous Peoples and Indicators of Well-being: Australian Perspectives on United Nations Global Frameworks

One of the major tasks of the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues (UNPFII) following its establishment in 2000 has been to establish statistical profiles of the world’s Indigenous peoples. As part of this broad task, it has recommended that the Millennium Development Goals and other global reporting frameworks should be assessed with a view to incorporating greater recognition of Indigenous concerns, interests, and interpretations of development and well-being. This article reviews the conceptual basis for this recommendation and compares the activities of the UNPFII towards the development of appropriate indicators with the practices of the Australian government in measuring disadvantage among Indigenous peoples in that country. Indigenous peoples’ own perceptions and understandings of well-being are seen to extend beyond and sometimes conflict with conventional reporting frameworks with the latter constructed more around processes of governmentality than Indigenous priorities.     

Population Association of China (PAC)

In the past 3 years, the Population Association of China, an independent, academic, and nongovernment organization established in February 1981, organized demographers throughout China to tackle the population problems that emerged in the course of the nation's socioeconomic development. Thus, by organizing and promoting exchanges, the Association did help to push forward the vigorous development of population science. Now PAC has over 500 individuals and organized units as members. It has 90 council members and 19 permanent council members. Its annual tasks and research priorities are discussed and decided by the permanent council, and then implemented in various departments and localities by its council or association members. The Population Association has organized various academic activities among demographers to study the characteristics of different periods. 1983 is an important year for the reform of social and economic systems in China. The new situation and problems brought about by the reform are bound to affect the control of population growth. Consequently, the Association decided to emphasize the control of population growth in rural areas. At the same time, the Association advocated a style of study which required people to delve into the realities of life and to investigate and study these realities thoroughly. For this purpose, 3 discussions were either financed or authorized by the Association in a single year. At the symposiums, demographers and field workers, proceeding from their country's reality and by applying the Marxist point of view, tried to find effective solutions to the demographic problems. As a result, they produced a number of valuable academic reports. In the last few years, PAC played an important role in international academic activities and exchanges. Reviewing the past and looking ahead to the future, PAC will further unite China's demographers to make new contributions to the development of the country's population science and the control of her population growth.     

Population and water resources: a delicate balance

Various avenues exist to minimize the effects of the current water crisis in some regions of the world and the more widespread problems that will threaten the world in the future. Active management of existing water resources and a reduction in population growth in water-scarce areas are needed to minimize the effects of the water crisis. National boundaries do not effect water systems. Cooperation and commitment of local, national, and international governments, institutions, and other organizations are needed to manage water systems. Development in each country must entail conscientious and effective balancing of unavoidable manipulations of the land and the unavoidable environmental impacts of those manipulations. The conditions of environmental sustainability must include protection of land productivity, ground water potability, and biodiversity. Humans must deal with these factors either by adopting methods to protect natural systems or by correcting existing damage and reducing future problems. They need to understand the demographic forces in each country so they can balance society's rising needs for clean water with the finite amount of water available. Factors affecting future needs at all levels include rapid rural-urban migration, high fertility, and changing patterns of international population movement. Given an increased awareness of global water systems, demographic trends, and active management of resources, the fragile balance between population and water can be maintained.     

Population science serves human happiness]

4 areas are covered in this speech delivered on January 10, 1983. 1) Looking back on China's post-Liberation population problems: as early as the 1950s, the Party and scholars such as Ma Yinchu recognized the need to control population growth. For instance, a 1952 directive instructed the Public Health Bureau to encourage the use of condoms and diaphrams. When Ma Yinchu's studies showing alarming population increases were made known to Mao Zedong and published in the People's Daily in 1957, the "new population theory" was formed, which advocated population control. But before this idea gained currency, Ma suffered criticism in 1958 and population studies was virtually halted. Between 1958-61, as China entered difficult times, the birthrate declined. By 1962 the rate increased, leading the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to issue a directive to control population. Again in 1971 the Central Government set population goals and incorporated population policies into national economic planning. When the wrongs of the Cultural Revolution were redressed, Ma Yinchu regained favor and demography entered a new era. 2) The responsibility of demographic studies: one of the most important tasks of demography is to solve the problem of confining the birthrate to 16-17/1000 annually, so that by 2000 the total population would be 1,200,000,000. This can only be done by advocating 1 child per couple, closely con trolling a 2nd birth and discouraging all 3rd births. 3) The contents of demographic studies: both immediate and future problems must be addressed. Areas of study can include sex ratio, marriage, family, population and land distribution, fertility, or an aging society. 4) Science research must embody a scientific attitude: it is best to follow the example set by Ma Yinchu, whose work was based on actual investigations in the field. Any development and production of scientific theory must stem from practical experience.     

Assessment of ASEAN population programme

The objectives of the 5th meeting of the ASEAN Heads of Population Program, held at Chiang Mai during November 1981, were the following: to discuss and consider the midterm reviews of some of the Phase 1 projects; to discuss and consider the ASEAN population experts' views on the progress made in the rest of the phase 1 projects; to discuss and consider the progress made in the implementation of the phase 2 projects; to discuss and consider the ASEAN population experts' recommendations on the ASEAN population program in the 1980s based on the report of the programming exercise submitted by the consultant in the expert group meeting; and to discuss administrative and other problems faced by the program implementors in the operationalization of the ongoing ASEAN population projects and provide appropriate directions to solve such problems. As a result of the programming exercise, the meeting established the directions for the future ASEAN population program and strongly recommended the continuation, intensification, and expansion of the ASEAN population program. A total of 12 projects comprise the ASEAN population program: 5 projects under phase 1 and 7 under phase 2. Under phase 1, 1 project has been completed, and the 1st parts of 2 other projects are in the process of implementation. Phase 2 projects, which started in September/October 1980, are all in the process of implementation. The following phase 1 projects are summarized: integration of population and rural development policies and programs; modular training for trainers of population and development agencies in ASEAN countries; multi-media support for population programs in the context of rural development in ASEAN countries; and migration in relation to rural development. The following phase 2 projects are also summarized: institutional development and exchange of personnel; women in development in ASEAN countries; and migration in relation to rural development. The following phase 2 projects are also summarized: institutional development and exchange of personnel; women in development; developing and strengthening national population information systems and networks in ASEAN countries; population and development dynamics and the human resource balance; studies on health and family planning in ASEAN countries; development of ASEAN social indicators; and population migratory movement and development.     

Binary outcomes and endogenous explanatory variables: Tests and solutions with an application to the demand for contraceptive use in tunisia

Many demographic studies examine discrete outcomes, and researchers often suspect that some of the explanatory variables may be influenced by the same unobserved factors that determine the discrete outcome under examination. In linear models, the standard solution to this potential endogeneity bias is an estimator such as two-stage least squares. These methods have been extended to models with limited dependent variables, but there is little information on the performance of the methods in the types of data sets typically used in demographic research. This paper helps to fill this gap. It describes a simple analytic framework for estimating the effects of explanatory variables on discrete outcomes, which controls for the potential endogeneity of explanatory variables. It also discusses tests for exogeneity and joint determination of the outcomes and the explanatory variables. It summarizes the results of a Monte Carlo study of the performance of these techniques and uses these results to suggest how researchers should approach these problems in practice. We apply these methods to the examination of the impact of fertility intentions on contraceptive use, based on data from the 1988 Tunisia Demographic and Health Survey.