A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

中国人口性别结构的区域差异及演变动态分析

人口性别构成是影响人类婚姻、人口再生产的基本因素，也影响国家经济、政治、文化、教育等方面的发展，也是编制经济、文化、教育、科技、卫生、人民生活、劳动、城乡建设等发展规划的重要依据。同时对于中国当前正在进行的和谐社会建设也具有重要意义。利用中国五次人口普查资料及2005年1％人口抽样资料分析了中国总人口性别比演变动态及地理分布特征。表明：（1）中国在历史上是一个性别比偏高的国家，新中国总人口性别比呈下降趋势；（2）1953到2005年，年龄性别比曲线越来越平稳，性别比最高峰值呈现有低龄组向中龄组及高龄组转移的趋势；（3）各省区之间及城乡之间的性别结构差异由大变小；（4）山区性别比高于平原。重工业城市高于其他城市。大城市高于小城市。     

An analysis of baby boom characteristics in China

This article analyzed the 3rd Chinese baby boom and its causes by focusing on the fertility intensity of women and the number of births per year. The 3rd baby boom is expected to end in 2002 and to peak in 1995. The baby boom in urban areas will last a much shorter time than in rural areas. Particular differences are manifested between provinces: 1) The baby boom will last 3-4 years in Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin, and will last 10 years in Liaoning, Jilin, and Jiangsu. In other provinces, the boom will last 15-23 years; 2) The peak years are different between provinces; 3) The base number of births curves are province-specific; 4) The absolute base birth numbers are different between provinces (Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan 700,000; Beijing, Tianjin, Qinghai, and Ningzia 100,000); and 5) The shapes of progressive increases for base number of births are province specific. The increase in the number of childbearing-age women, the unplanned higher parity births, and early marriage and childbearing have all contributed to the current baby boom. Recommendations to control the problem include controlling higher parity births, observing birth spacing, and controlling the age of marriage and childbearing.     

苏南经济发展与外来人口增长

2005年苏南地区凭借着占全国0．29％国土面积、1．74％的人口．创造了全国6．26％的GDP．2000—2005年苏南人均GDP以15％以上的年速增长。苏南地区的良好社会经济发展态势得益于苏南得天独厚的天时地利人和．其中农民工是苏南地区经济建设、社会发展不可缺少的重要组成部分之一。苏南也是我国计划生育工作开展最早、最好的地区之一。但是现在苏南的出生人口越来越少、家庭规模越来越小,劳动力严重缺乏。2000—2005年苏南年平均人口自然增长率为1．54‰,为全国平均水平的1/3。苏南社会经济的发展,特别是建筑业制造业的发展．吸引了大量的外地劳动力。2005年人口抽样调查表明,苏南流入人口占苏南居民人口的比重由5年前的22％增长到28％。2000—2005年苏南流动人口年均增长6．7％。流动人口为苏南市政建设、经济建设提供了38％以上的贡献份额：同时也加剧了公共资源的紧张程度．     

Ilocos region: BSPO paramedics: training in Abra pays off

The study entitled "the comprehensive Baragay Medical System in Arba: An Evaluation" analyzed the performance of trained paramedics and found that the effectiveness of barangay service point officers (BSPOs) as outreach workers depeded on: the knowledge and skills they acquired after traning, which helped them meet the medical needs of community residents; their acceptability to the community; and their positive attitude toward their job. The study indicated that adquate training for the job was crucial to the effective performance of outreach workers. The study compared the performance fo BSPO paramedics and BSPO nonparamedics in metting the health care and family planning needs of residents of the communities the served. BSPO paramedics fared much better as outreach workers in the tasks they were trained for -- rendering services in family planning and health care -- than BSPO nonparamedics wo were not given that kind of training. The study was conducted in the towns of Sallapadan, Pilar, and Danglas for BSPO paramedics and in Manabo, Villaviciosa, and La Paz for BSPO nonparamedics. Interviewed were a sample group of married adults in the areas, 15 BSPO paramedics, and 15 BSPO nonparamedics. The BSPO paramedics had undergone training in preventive medicine, environmental sanitation, and treatment of minor illnesses. The were taught advanced first aid techniques, over the cunter dispensing of medicines, and basic laboratory analysis. The nonparamedics were not trained in these functins. The residents preferred to approach BSPO paramedics for both family planning and medical servies, and more community members also derived the "highest degreee of satisfaction" from the paramedics' services. The BSPO paramedics also served more family planning clients and provided community residents more kinds of medical services. These included medical checkup, the distribution and sale of medicines, curing illnesses, and assisting in child delivery. In terms of job satisfaction, 13 out of every 15 BSPO paramedics interviewed indicated that they were "very satisfied" with their jobs, while only 6 of 15 nonparamedics gave the same rating. The survey findings suggest that the Arba Comprehensive Barangay Medical System can be a viable model for outreach workers in remote communities.     

Population change in the former Soviet Republics

Demographic trends in the former Soviet Republics and Russia are summarized and discussed in this publication. The former Soviet Republics in Europe as well as Georgia and Armenia had completed or almost completed their demographic transition before October 1991. Other Central Asian republics experienced reduced mortality, but, despite rapid declines, fertility is still above replacement level (at 3-4 children per woman). The economic and social dislocation of the breakup of the republics has hastened fertility decline. The annual population growth rate of the USSR in the mid-1980s was 0.9%; this rate declined to 0.4% in 1991, and the decline has continued. The 1991 population of the USSR was 289.1 million. Between 1989 and 1991, the crude birth rate was 18/1000 population, and the crude death rate was 10/1000. The net migration rate of -4/1000 helped to reduce growth. Total fertility in the USSR was 2.3 children in 1990. In Russia, fertility declined from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. The preferred family size in Russia was 1.9 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1993. This decline occurred due to lack of confidence in the economy and insufficient income. Only 19% of women used contraception in 1990. Marriages declined after 1990. Age pyramids were similar in the republics in that there was a narrowing in the proportion aged 45-49 years, and the male population aged over 65 years was diminished, due to the effect of World War II. The cohort of those aged 20-24 years in 1992 was very small due to the small parental birth cohort. The differences in the republics was characterized as broad-based in the younger ages because of high fertility. The number of childbearing women will remain large. Life expectancy has been 70 years since the 1950s and has declined in some republics due to substandard health care, lack of job safety measures, and alcoholism. Some republics experienced increased life expectancy, but, after 1991, mortality increased. Tajikistan had the highest infant mortality of 47/1000 live births in 1993. A demographic profile provided for each republic offers several population projection scenarios.     

Preliminary inquiry into changes among women in mountainous regions with regard to marriage and birth]

Research objectives were in China study the changes in marriage, birth, and birth and birth control of mountain women in the last 43 years. The methodology used was random sampling. The sample was taken based on 1% of the agricultural population. The findings show that the unmarried rate of women is currently very low. Remarriage occurs because of the loss of a spouse rather than divorce. Early marriage occurs more frequently with mountain women since they have gradually strayed from the traditional belief of marrying only once. Within the last 40 years, the average age when one married has gradually increased. The percentage of early marriages has decreased and the percentage of late marriages has increased. Prior to 1975, the birth rate was high and now it has decreased. The decrease in the birth rate in 1960 was due to natural disasters; however, the current decreases in the birth rate are due to family planning. The major factors influencing marriage of mountain farmers and birth rate are traditional feudalistic influences, economic life, marriage laws, population policies, culture, and education. The survey was conducted from August 1982 to April 1983. There were 20,174 women ranging from the ages of 15-67 who participated. Findings show that the majority of the unmarried women are now under the age of 25. The percentage of 1st marriages under the legal age reached 2.89%. The average 1st marriage age of women in the 1940s was 19.03. Between 1980-1982 it was 22.30, an increase of 3.27 years since 1940. The percentage of 1st marriages under the age of 18 in the 1940s was 35.96%. It decreased to 2.28% in 1980. The rate of 1st marriages over the age of 23 before 1970 remained approximately 5%. It increased to 56.84% in the early 1980s. The traditional feudalistic influences have greatly affected marriage of mountain farmers. The ratio of more than 1 child per couple reached a rate of over 40%. The improvement of economic life also increased the aggregate birth rate. It reached 7 in the 1950s. With the emphasis no longer on marriage laws and population policies but on family planning, the early marriage rate decreased to below 15% from a previous rate of 40%.     

Incorporating husband-wife differences in place utility differentials into migration decision models

This paper extends the micro-level empirical literature on migration decision making by investigating the manner in which husbands' and wives' subjective place utility expectations jointly feed into migration decisions in a low-income country. The authors use expectational data relating to four place utility dimensions and stated migration intentions of 376 village-resident Egyptian couples to test alternative decision models. An ordinal probit estimation technique is employed. The results of the analyses support the hypothesis of husband dominance in migration decisions in this context. The authors conclude with a discussion of the implications of the paper for further theoretical refinement and for migration survey design in this and other developing countries.Dr. McDevitt is a Research Associate of the Carolina Population Center, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Dr. Gadalla, former Director of The Social Research Center of The American University in Cairo, is currently Visiting Distinguished Professor of Sociology-Demography, San Diego State University, San Diego.This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1984 annual meetings of the Population Association of America and cited throughout as McDevitt and Gadalla (1984). The authors wish to acknowledge helpful discussions with Amos Hawley in the early stages of the development of the paper and the guidance of David Guilkey and Larry Taylor with the statistical techniques employed in the work reported in the paper. The research was supported in part by grants 1-R01-HD14943 and 1-T32-HD07168 from the National Institutes of Health.     

The first years of a consultation bureau for homosexuality

The COC's attempt to form a consultation bureau which would supply social aid to homosexuals is presented. The details and problems of forming such a group, including financial matters, type of aid to be supplied, and staffing, are discussed. In conclusion, the total reformation of the bureau in the 1980's is explained. The reformation reflects the change in social tolerance toward homosexuality in The Netherlands.     

基于多样性指数的云南省民族人口发展态势分析

文章基于1990、2000、2010年人口数据对云南省县域尺度的民族多样性指数及其变异指数、民族贡献率对云南省民族人口发展态势作了分析。在民族多样性层面上,云南省具有较高的民族多样性指数,在空间上呈现先由东北部向中部上升再向南、北部上升的趋势,反映了民族人口增长的“东北部-中部-南、北部”差异趋势;基于三个截面数据民族多样性变异指数的分析表明民族多样性指数变化与区域内原本的多样性指数基础有极强的关联,云南省民族多样性在总体上呈上升趋势的同时区域间民族多样性差距呈减小趋势,区域间民族人口差距缩小;基于民族多样性民族贡献率的分析表明汉族对民族多样性的贡献集中于东部、东北部、西部地区以及东南部局部地区,少数民族对民族多样性贡献率较高的区域呈现了多民族贡献率显著的特征,不同民族人口增长情况存在明显区域分异特征。     

基于行业人口的广东省区域空间结构分析

以核心-边缘理论为基础,采用各行业门类人口的统计资料,运用主成分分析和聚类分析的方法,对广东省124个县、市、区的空间结构特征进行了分析,认为第一核心区主要分布在珠江三角洲和大城市的中心区,第二核心区主要分布在第一核心区的周围和一些中等城市的中心区,向上过渡区主要分布在珠江三角洲的外围和各中小城市中心,向下过渡区则主要分布在粤北、粤西等地区,资源边疆区分布在广大边远的县级行政区。随后将广东省各区域分为6种类型分析了其区域空间结构形态特征,结果认为广东省的各区域以聚集形结构形态为主,同时在珠江三角洲地区形成了扩散性结构形态,从广东省总体来看,还没有形成均衡性的结构形态。     

弹性城市化与农民工反贫困：基于城乡统筹的视角

主流观点认为农民工问题的根本出路不在农村而在城市．支持通过加速城市化进程的方式来解决农民工问题。但在中国人口整体规模过大情况下,完全实行人口自由流动或迫使人口向城市流动的政策,结果只能是贫困人口向城市的搬迁和聚集。较现实的方式是：长期稳定和完善中国农民自己创造的城乡间往返流动模式．即弹性城市化模式。这在一定程度有效地平衡了市场条件下的城市化限制与农村低收入之间的矛盾,降低城市严重贫困化的风险。     

韩国人口老龄化过程及其启示

韩国人口老龄化的过程与中国有很多相似之处,经历了20世纪50年代的高生育率和死亡率降低、60年代以后的生育率下降直到目前的超低生育率,韩国人口在世纪之交快速进入老龄化阶段。预计初婚年龄的升高、持续的低生育率和育龄妇女数量的减少将会使韩国人口进一步老化。快速的人口老龄化已经为韩国社会带来了一系列的经济和社会问题,应对老龄化带来的挑战成为国家面临的重大问题。韩国的老龄化过程、现状以及采取相应的对策,将对中国具有启示意义。     

Determinants of fertility control in Korea

The objective of this study is to examine the socioeconomic and intervening determinants of fertility control in Korea. The conceptual framework applied here is based on the synthesis framework of fertility control developed by Easterlin and Crimmins. The data came from the 1974 Korean National Family Survey, which was conducted as part of the World Fertility Survey. The study focuses on the relative importance of the socioeconomic factors and intervening variables in the determination of fertility control. The most interesting finding is that there are only small differentials in fertility control by socioeconomic factors. The analysis emphasizes the importance of examining the determinants of fertility control in terms of the intervening variables, which include the components of natural fertility, desired family size, and costs of fertility control. These intervening variables provide general support for the theoretical predictions. Moreover, most of the coefficients for these variables are statistically significant at the .05 level. The analysis also shows that motivation for fertility control is an important factor in determining use of fertility control.     

Population development and changes of China's minority nationalities]

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is a nation composed of many ethnic groups. After the Communist victory of 1947, the government announced that there were 55 minority nationalities. The 1982 census provides demographic statistics concerning the position of those minorities within the population of the PRC. Since 1964, minority population has increased more rapidly than the population of the Han majority. Between 1953 and 1982, China's population increased 73.2%. The Han population increased 71.2%, the minorities, 90.4%. According to the 1982 census, the total fertility rate of the village-dwelling minorities in 1981 was 5.1%, while the fertility rate of the majority was 2.7%. The mortality rate of the various minorities decreased to the level of that of the Han. Consequently, the percentage of minorities in the total population also increased, from 5.8% of the total population in 1964 to 6.7% in 1982. The reasons for this increase include the following: the change in population reproduction brought about by democratic and socialist reform; the identification of minorities; improvement in health and medical facilities; the reinstatement of and change in racial minority policy promulgated in 1978; and intermarriage between minorities and Han Chinese. Although the minorities account for only 6.7% of China's total population, their distribution constitutes 62.5% of the nation's total area. In the past, the minorities have scattered to the various parts of the country and mingled with other ethnic groups. The high density of minorities is concentrated in the plains where the climate is mild and agricultural produce, such as wheat, rice, and corn, are cultivated. The lowest density areas with respect to the minorities are the inland highlands, deserts, and cold pastoral areas. The age structure of the minorities is young; the marriageable population is numerous; and the fertility rate is high. The educational standard of the minorities has been greatly enhanced, but is still lower than that of the Han Chinese.     

The socio-economic status of migrant populations in regional and rural Australia and its implications for future population policy

The migrant population living in regional and rural Australia has been growing, partly because of the introduction and expansion of a number of state-specific and regional migration programs by the Australian Government over the period since 1995. The programs were created in response to both the skill shortages in regional and rural Australia and environmental and social critiques of urban migration. This study uses data from the 2006 Census of Population and Housing in Australia to compare five socio-economic measures: labour force participation, unemployment, income, educational attainment, and occupational status, between the migrant and Australia-born populations. The results reveal that the migrant population in regional and rural Australia now records similar values for the labour force participation rate, unemployment rate, median individual weekly income, and proportion in high skill level occupations to the Australia-born population. The most notable difference is that migrants have a substantially higher level of education, particularly university education. The differences between men and women on these socio-economic measures are wider for the migrant population than for the Australia-born. Recently-arrived migrants are significantly more educated, more highly skilled and higher paid than their longer-standing counterparts. The study also discusses the differences between the larger migrant groups living in regional and rural Australia. The improvement in the socio-economic outcomes experienced by the migrant population of regional and rural Australia and their broad similarity to those of the Australia-born living in these regions strengthen the case for increasing the proportion of migrant settlers going to these regions.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区农村居民点分布模式空间统计分析——以甘谷县为例

根据2008年SPOT遥感影像得到甘谷县农村居民点空间分布信息,继而运用样方分析法、最近邻距离指数、K函数、热点探测技术研究了甘谷县农村居民点空间分布格局与模式。结果显示：甘谷县农村居民点的空间分布具有明显的空间依赖性,总体上呈现出轻微集聚分布的特点;随着研究尺度的变大,居民点空间分布的集聚性指数也增大;居民点空间分布的热点区域在微观尺度上具有空间随机性、在中观尺度上具有边界集中性、宏观尺度上具有面状集中性的特点。     

Characteristics of age composition of China's population]

The age composition of Chinese population is analyzed via data collected in the 1982 census, which has been the basis for planning the social and economic life of 1 billion people. The census reflected complete population age composition, by birth, mortality and growth rates, from the time of the Liberation in 1949. The 10% sample, based on the national age composition, did not include the 4,240,000 people in military service which, as .42% of the total population, did not constitute a large differential. The population has grown rapidly since 1949. A few years before and after 1960, growth was reduced due to economic conditions, but the overall growth trend remained unchanged. The census showed that since 1970, growth has experienced a downturn, but the decrease was not related to the sudden drop before and after 1960. The census also showed China's population had changed from 1964's primarily young population to an adult population, but the process of population aging is only beginning, with a still relatively young population. China's population is not a stable one. This increase and decrease were greatly influenced by the changes in social and economic conditions. The disparity in age composition caused by these changes has created problems in social life, education, employment, marriage, housing, health, transportation, and cultural facilities. There are large differences in age composition between regions and ethnic groups. The decreases in birth and growth rate of the eastern coastal provinces were more rapid than those of the southwest and northwest regions. The age composition of minority nationalities is considerably younger than the Han people. Factors that influenced age composition characteristics included reduction of the neonatal mortality rate, the rises and falls of economic development, and the work in planned fertility.     

Population reproduction and migration in Yugoslavia since World War 2]

Yugoslavia is composed of 6 formerly independent countries. Therefore, the economic development and population growth rates are quite different in different areas. The population growth rate varies from .31% in developed areas to 1.37% in mid-developed areas to 2.78% in underdeveloped areas. In developed areas there are large urban populations and more women with higher education and social involvement. The mortality rate in Yugoslavia has been markedly reduced in the last few decades because of the improvement of their health care system. This is especially obvious in mid- and underdeveloped areas. The mortality rate has increased in developed areas because of the increase in traffic accidents, smoking, drinking, and suicides. Yugoslavia is a multiracial country, and the population growth rate differs among the different races. The nationwide family planning program in Yugoslavia is run on a voluntary basis, and they do not have a unified population policy because of their complicated racial and economic situation. After World War 2 a large portion of the population migrated from the country to the cities because of the mechanization of agriculture. The higher living standard in developed areas also attracted people to migrate from mid- and underdeveloped areas. Yugoslavia has a tradition of emigration--a .1 to .2% annual emigration rate. The government encouraged their people to find jobs abroad in the mid 1960's.