A preliminary inquiry about the problem of second births outside the plan]

In 1981, the population growth in China was revived and showed a new trend towards a rapid increase. In general, the rate of numerous births in one household was down, the rate for a second birth outside the plan was up sharply, and the number for a second birth outside the plan exceeded the number for multiple births in average families. As a result, how to control the second birth outside the plan has become a crucial problem for population control. Under present conditions, numerous births in each household are normally related to the financial situation of each household, the sex of earlier births, and the educationa background of the parents. The current increase in second births is not caused by financial reasons. Instead, it is caused by social and psychological reasons. The traditional belief in favor of having more male children for security in one's old age and for continuation of one's family line is still deeply rooted in the people's minds. In order to eliminate such tradtional influence, more work in ideological education is needed so that the common people may understand the need for birth control and change their traditional view on population. With the establishment of a responsible production system in the rural areas, measures for economic restriction and reward should be taken. In addition, late marriages should be enouraged, and a new tax system based upon population count in each household should be adopted so that additional revenues may be collect for educational and other expenses, and social insurance for old people should be expanded. If all these measures are taken successfully, the problem of second births outside the plan can be solved.     

A preliminary inquiry into the population thought of Comrade Mao Ze-dong]

A summary of Mao's thinking on birth control is presented. The author states that although Mao originally believed a large population and rapid population growth were beneficial, the results of the 1953 Chinese census caused him to change his mind and advocate population control. However, political conditions prevented the implementation of this policy change, which only began to be effective in the 1970s following Chou En-lai's endorsement, official endorsement by the State Council, and inclusion of population plans in the fourth Five Year Plan in 1971.     

A census of one billion people (summary)]

The national census which was conducted in 1982 has provided reliable population data for formulating policies and plans in China's modernization process. A great deal of experience has been acquired from this census. (1) The census was based upon China's practical situation and a unique system of methods suitable to China's situation was used. (2) Census workers have found appropriate methods through practical experience and also learned the skill of using computers in handling census data. (3) The general public was very cooperative and worked closely with the leadership and professional cadres. (4) Measures were taken to ensure the quantity and quality of the census work so that the goal of promoting the data's quantity and quality could be reached. (5) The spirit of patriotism was developed, and the people realized that the national census is a necessary measure to be taken for China's construction and modernization. The work of the 1982 national census was successful. The unfinished work which lies ahead is still very heavy. The census should keep on learning from the successful experience of foreign countries and try to overcome difficulties so that the work on China's population statistics may be pushed forward.     

A preliminary inquiry into the problem of floating population in Shanghai city proper]

Shanghai's geographic location and socio-economic status make it the most attractive city for transient population from all over China. As a result of the country's rapid economic development and policy of "openness and domestic economy vitalization, "Shanghai has increased its economic, scientific, and cultural communication with other Chinese cities and foreign countries. The transient population has also increased greatly. Between January and June, 1984, the transient population reached 136,880,000. A study conducted at midnight on August 10, 1984 surveyed the transient population, with the following results: 1) Based on random sampling of data collected by the 46 Household Registration Committees, temporary visitors in Shanghai's residences totaled between 315,286 and 359,602 persons 2) Hotel residents: 125,000 3) People residing on boats: 19,000 4) Temporary residents in 10 suburban areas: 20,000 5) Other transient population consists of temporary factory and construction workers and farm produce vendors: 79,000 the total transient population at midnight on August 10, 1984 was 586,000 persons. 41.6% were visiting friends and relatives or came for medical assistance. 45.9% came from other provinces, 38.8% from local farm villages, 14.3% from nearby towns, and .93% from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan. The transient population has contributed to the development, productivity, and supply of commodities to Shanghai, and increased the city's communication with other provinces, but measures should be taken to properly manage it. To better manage this problem, the following steps must be taken: 1) Survey the population -- number, composition, distribution, sources, and activity patterns; 2) Classify by profession and centralize management; 3) Establish methods for proper distribution and diversification of market and entertaining areas; and 4) Improve roads, communication, and hotel facilities.     

A summary of the fecundity for the Zang nationality in the Muli region]

The Zang nationality in the Muli region is a major branch of the Tibetan people now living in Sichuan Province. Before 1949, the social economy in the local area was rather backward, public health was poor, the infant mortality rate was high as 50% and the overall population growth was slow. Since 1949, because of changes that have taken place in the social and economic system, the development of the population has also changed on a large scale. According to a recent survey, numerous households are still trying to change their poor financial condition through a population increase. Conversely, there are also some households with a better financial situation who prefer not to have too many children. In addition, fecundity also differs between women with some education and those who are illiterate, and the social impact on fecundity is very obvious. The influence from traditional concepts and psychological factors is also strong. At the present time, the national ploicy of China is for family planning and birth control to prevent an unlimited population growth. Ideological education and propaganda are needed to alter the people's traditional outdated concept of birth so that the common goal of controlling population growth may be achieved.     

Curved versus straight scissors to avoid 3rd and 4th degree perineal tears: A randomised feasibility study

BackgroundSevere perineal tears sustained during childbirth cause significant distress and morbidity amongst women. The objective of this study was to compare the use of straight scissors for cutting an episiotomy with the use of curved scissors, which are designed to curve away from the anal sphincter.MethodsWe used a single-centre, randomised feasibility trial. The intervention was the use of curved scissors. Women were recruited during a prenatal visit and randomised in the delivery suite, when it became clear that an episiotomy was required. The feasibility outcomes were the proportion of women able to be recruited, randomised and followed up. We also calculated the incidence of obstetric anal sphincter injury when either straight or curved scissors were used to cut an episiotomy. Other outcomes assessed were pain, length of hospital stay, perineal infection and perineal dehiscence.ResultsOf the 155 patients recruited in the prenatal period, only 20 (12.9%) were eventually randomised at birth. The main reasons for the high loss were that women either did not have a vaginal delivery (38, 24.5%), or they did not need an episiotomy (72, 46.5%). Rates of obstetric anal sphincter injury and other outcomes were similar between groups.DiscussionAnal sphincter injury during childbirth remains an important problem. Although the use of curved scissors provides a theoretical solution, we found that the high attrition rate made feasibility of conducting a suitably powered, randomised trial using the current design untenable. Alternative strategies have been suggested to make any future study more viable.     

[An inquiry concerning the birth model].]

The author modifies the parity progression model of fertility by using the parity progression ratio as a control indicator of fertility. A regression equation is used to calculate the total fertility rate for China at parity one.     

公元前三世纪中国兵马俑尺寸研究

2200年前守护中国历史上第一个皇帝秦始皇陵墓的地下兵马俑的尺寸与现代军队中有最低身高要求的步兵极为相似。这种最低身高要求的规定使士兵身高的分布偏离正态分布,而兵马俑就是这样。假定中国古代士兵招募自一个身高正态分布的人口,而且其标准差与现代值相同,那么,2000多年前中国人的身高估计在162～171厘米之间。     

A preliminary inquiry into the interrelationship between population growth and economic development in Hong Kong]

Hong Kong includes Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territory, and more than 230 islands. During World War ii, the population of Hong Kong decreased sharply, and the total number decreased to less than 600,000. Since the war ended in 1945, the population of Hong Kong has been increasing rapidly at an annual rate of 20%. By the end of 1981, its total population had increased to 5.2 million, including 1.25 million newly arrived immigrants. The average age is 24.8. People above the age 65 constitute only 6% of the total population. This shows that there is a sufficient supply of labor for local economic development. Because of continued economic growth, there has been a constant demand for more labor. Low wages provide an excellent condition for high-speed industrial development. An improved quality of professional workers and management personnel also contributes much to Hong Kong's industrial modernization. Because of high employment among the labor population, the general population earns income and spends a great deal, and this has created a rather active economy. General population growth trends include: 1) continued population growth will bring the total population to 6.3 million by the end of 1981, and the housing problem will become more serious; 2) a stable decline in the natural population growth rate will gradually change the population pattern to a low birth, low death, and low natural growth situation; and 3) improvements in science and technology, health care, and living conditions will reduce the death rate, and the average age will lengthen, and with the increase in old people, the demand for social welfare will also increase; and 4) there will be a shortage in experienced labor (professional technicians and high management personnel) in the 1980s. Facing the new situation, Hong Kong's economic structure needs reform, moving from a labor intensive enterprise to a capital-technological intensive enterprise. The market will be expanded and Hong Kong will earn more profit in China's mode rnization process.     

An inquiry concerning the regularity of the spatial distribution of the population]

A general review of the relationship between the spatial distribution of the world's population and the distribution of the forces of production is presented from the Marxist perspective. The role of man as consumer and producer, as well as the influence of population density on production and distribution, is discussed.     

An inquiry into the formula of calculation of the planned total population]

Population planning is considered to national economic planning. In order to plan population properly, there must be a correct method of calculation. If the method is not scientific, then the results are difficult to verify; if it is not perfect, then the results will be imprecise. If inaccurate results are used as the basis for economic activities, then there will be adverse effects on a country's economic development. Mathematical calculations must be scientific, i.e., the contents being calculated and the results must all be logical. Currently the most commonly used calculations cannot be called scientific and logical. A mathematical formula is developed which fulfills 3 necessary criteria: 1) it is seientific, i.e., the indicators and the formula conform to the needs of statistical work, the implied meaning is valid, and the results conform to objective needs and the goals of the calculation; 2) it is simple, i.e., it does not involve complex mathematical operations and it gets answers relatively quickly without the use of a calculator; further, it can predict population totals for relatively long periods of time; and 3) it is applicable to calculating any population total of a future period and can be used on a national or local level.     

Yet another inquiry into the trustworthiness of eighteenth-century London's Bills of Mortality

This is an enquiry into how eighteenth-century London's Bills of Mortality were compiled. It concludes that while they remain tolerably accurate in aggregate, particularly when considered over a number of years, they are liable to be very misleading if particular localities or parishes are considered. They are a record of registered burials-not deaths-of most of those who had been baptised as Anglicans, so they omit some burial grounds within London, and some dissenters. Crucially, they are most misleading guides to those who had died in one parish but whose family chose to have them buried in another. Several London parishes deliberately undercut their neighbours by charging lower burial fees to attract custom; others opened extra-parochial burial grounds. St Martin-in-the-Fields offers an example of the latter from 1806, but the scale of the new burial ground was not large and it was mainly confined to those who had died in the workhouse. Much more significant was the neighbouring parish of St Anne Soho, which at its peak period in the 1760s to the 1790s was alone handling the equivalent of between 2 and 5 per cent of all Anglican burials within the total area of London's Bills of Mortality. This was only one, though perhaps a particularly egregious, London parish, while the export of corpses to one's erstwhile 'home' parish demonstrates why the Bills cannot be trusted in their detailed geography, as well as providing a warning to all English population historians confronted with a sudden fall or rise in their burial totals.     

Preliminary inquiry into the difference in sex ratio at birth in China]

Based on population statistics from China's 2nd and 3rd national censuses, China's unusually high male/female birth rates are examined. It appears that the lower male/female birth rates are generally found in China's minority-populated autonomous regions. Xizang Autonomous Region (Tibet) has the nation's lowest male/female birth ratio of 101.3; the highest ratio, 112.5, is in Anhui province; the national average for 1981 was 108.47. Although geographic, socioeconomic, and other factors may be attributed to regional differences, it is maintained that the high male/female birth rate is universal throughout China. The significant difference between the relatively high male/female birth rate in China's urban areas in 1981 (109.9), and the lower rate in the rural areas (107.6) is challenged by the author, who suggests that China's urban statistics are unquestionably more reliable than the rural statistics. The author suggests that factors such as the importance of raising male offspring, China's traditionally male-dominated family system, and the desire for male farm workers is strongest in China's rural sector. The current male/female birth rate is not a recent trend; prior to 1949, the male/female birth rate ranged from 110 to 115.     

General liberalism and social change in post World War II America: A summary of trends

There has been a general shift towards liberalism during the post World War II period. A plurality of attitude trends have moved in the liberalism direction. There is, however, some evidence that this liberal shift has weakened, but not reversed during the last decade. Topical disaggregation show that the liberal movement has not been uniform across subjects. Attitudes towards abortions, civil liberties, race relations, and religion have moved most consistently in the liberal direction while crime/violence and spending/taxation items have showed more conservative trends. The main causes of the general liberalism trend were modernization and liberal idealism assisted by the New Deal Realignment and institutional leadership. The main countervailing forces to liberalism were found to be stagflation, taxation level, and crime. Despite the waning of liberalism in recent years there is no evidence to support the idea that most liberal advances over the past four decades will be reversed in the immediate future.     

The geometric mean of the age-specific death rates as a summary index of mortality

Even though a single summary index of mortality can never replace the set of age-specific death rates, it has been found to be extremely useful for a wide variety of purposes. Such indexes are generally one of two types: aggregative indexes, such as directly standardized rates which reflect absolute differences between corresponding age-specific mortality rates; and average of relatives indexes which reflect proportional differences between those rates. The choice of index depends upon the purposes for which it is to be used, and is important as different indexes can produce very different results. While directly standardized rates are widely used, they depend upon the selection of an appropriate standard population and give disproportionately heavy weight to the high ages. Average of relatives indexes give equal weight to all ages, but are infrequently used as no index of that type has gained wide acceptability. This paper recommends the use of the geometric mean of the age-specific mortality rates as such an index, and shows that this index is readily calculable, unbiased, needs no standard population, is directly comparable to all other indexes so calculated, and accurately reflects exponential mortality patterns.     

Structure and change in causes of death: An international summary

Abstract Model patterns of the cause structure of mortality at different levels were established for males and females, based on data for 165 national populations. These patterns suggest that the cause of death most responsible for mortality variation is influenza/bronchitis, followed by 'other infectious and parasitic diseases', respiratory tuberculosis, and diarrhoeal disease. Together, these causes typically account for about 60 per cent of the change in level of mortality from all causes combined. Their respective contributions have not depended in an important way on the initial level of mortality. These results - especially tbe importance of the respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases - imply that past accounts may have over-emphasized the role in mortality decline of specific and well-defined infectious diseases and their corresponding methods of control. There is strong statistical support for the suggestion that most of the remainder of mortality variation should be ascribed to changes in cardio-vascular diseases, but that methods of cause-of-death assignment in high-mortality populations have often obscured the importance of these diseases. When death rates from 'other and unknown' causes are held constant, changes in cardio-vascular disease account for about one-quarter of the decline in mortality from 'all causes'.Although the causal factors are poorly established, corroborative results have been demonstrated cross-sectionally in the United States. The composition of the group of populations most deviant from the structural norms is apparently dominated by differentials in the mode of assigning deaths to cardio-vascular disease. However, when broad groups of regions or periods are distinguished, more subtle differences emerge. Controlling mortality level for all causes combined, diarrhoeal diseases are significantly higher in non-Western populations and southern/eastern Europe than in overseas Europe or northern/western Europe. These differences are probably related to standards of nutrition and personal hygiene, but may also reflect climatic factors. Much higher cardio-vascular mortality in overseas European populations than in non-Western populations at similar overall levels probably reflects variation in habits of life. Regional differences in death rates from violence, maternal mortality, respiratory tuberculosis and influenza/pneumonia/bronchitis are briefly noted and commented upon. Cause-of-death structures at a particular level of mortality display some important changes over time. Respiratory tuberculosis and 'other infectious and parasitic diseases' have tended to contribute less and less to a certain level of mortality. They have in part been 'replaced' by diarrhoeal disease, specifically in non-Western populations. These developments reflect an accelerating rate of medical and public health progress against the specific infectious diseases, and a disappointing rate of progress against diarrhoeal disease. Western and non-western populations have shared to approximately the same extent in the accelerating progress against infectious diseases, and developments during the post-war period are more appropriately viewed as an extension of prior trends rather than as radical departures therefrom. For males, cardio-vascular disease and cancer have significantly increased their contribution to a particular level of mortality, while no such tendency is apparent for females. These developments may be related to changes in personal behaviour and in environmental influences whose differential impact on the sexes has been demonstrated in epidemiological studies. Although we have avoided an explicit treatment of age by having recourse at the outset to standardization, certain of the results are apparently reflected in studies of age patterns of mortality. The joint occurrence in non-Western populations and Southern/Eastern populations of exceptionally high death rates from diarrhoeal disease may explain why the 'South' age-pattern, with it high death rates between ages one and five, is often the most accurate referent for use in Latin America and Asia. The fact that the list of populations with the least deviation cause structure is almost exclusively confined to members of the 'West' group of Coale and Demeny may account for the lack of persistent deviation in this group's age patterns. Finally, tbe increasing importance of cardio-vascular disease and neoplasms in cause-of-death structures for males but not females is probably associated with the changing age patterns of male mortality noted by Coale and Demeny.     

A note on the analysis of parity progression ratios

Contingency table modeling procedures are proposed to examine the effects of independent variables on parity progression ratios. The methodology is outlined and an incremental-factorial linear model is developed.