A survey of population in the ESCAP region

In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.     

Asian and Pacific population targets

2 population targets for the Asian and Pacific regions were established in 1981-82: 1) by the Asian Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development at Beijing, China to attain 1% population growth rate for the Asian region by the year 2000, and 2) by the 3rd Asian and Pacific Population Conference at Colombo, Sri Lanka, to attain replacement level of fertility by the year 2000. In an attempt to ascertain whether these targets can be achieved and/or related, the Population Division of the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) prepared population projections in which the 2 targets are achieved. These projections were prepared by aggregating the total population of member countries. When net reproduction rate (NRR) equals 1 (replacement level fertility) it will lead to a stable population with a growth rate of zero. In the short-term a population with replacement level fertility will continue to increase if it has a young age structure due to previous higher levels of fertility. Some projections for the period 1980-2005 are: 1) population growth rate will decrease from 1.78% to 1.05%, 2) total fertility rate will decrease from 3.63-2.11, 3) male life expectancy will increase from 59.8-67.3, and 4) infant mortality rate will decrease from 67.3-34.5. For the ESCAP region, a target of NRR of 1 would be easier to achieve than a growth rate of 1%. The UN projects the total population of the region to be 3,382,000,000 in the year 2000. If the NRR can be lowered to 1 by then, however, the total population would be 3,342,000,000 and if the growth rate can be reduced to 1% by the end of the century the resulting population would be 3,300,000,000. Major demographic benefits will be attained in terms of the age structure of the population if a 1% growth rate is achieved; the proportion under age 15 was 37.1% in 1980 but will be 27.2% in 2000 with a dependency ratio of 48.8 compared to 70.8 for 1980.     

The demographic transition in the Korean peninsula, 1910-1990: South and North Korea compared

North and South Korea have both experienced demographic transition and fertility and mortality declines. The fertility declines came later in North Korea. In 1990, the population was 43.4 million in South Korea and 21.4 million in North Korea and the age and sex compositions were similar. This evolution of population structure occurred despite differences in political systems and fertility determinants. Differences were in the fertility rate and the rate of natural increase. The total fertility rate was 2.5 children in North Korea and 1.6 in South Korea. The rate of natural increase was 18.5 per 1000 in North Korea and 9.8 in South Korea. Until 1910, the Korean peninsula was in the traditional stage characterized by high fertility and mortality. The early transitional stage came during 1910-45 under the Japanese annexation. Health and medical facilities improved and the crude birth rate rose and then declined. With the exception of the war years, population expanded as a function of births, deaths, and international migration. Poor economic conditions in rural areas acted as a push factor for south-directed migration, migration to Japan, and urban migration. Next came the chaotic stage, during 1945-60. South Korean population expanded during this period of political unrest. Repatriation and refugee migration constituted a large proportion of the population increase. Although the war brought high mortality, new medicine and disease treatment reduced the mortality rate after the war. By 1955-60, the crude death rate was 16.1 per 1000 in South Korea. The crude birth rate remained high at 42 per 1000 between 1950-55. The postwar period was characterized by the baby boom and higher fertility than the pre-war period of 1925-45. Total fertility was 6.3 by 1955-60. The late transitional stage occurred during 1960-85 with reduced fertility and continued mortality decline. By 1980-85, total fertility was 2.3 in the closed population. The restabilization stage occurred during 1985-90, and fertility declined to 1.6. In North Korea, strong population control policies precipitated fertility decline. In South Korea, the determinants were contraception, rising marriage age, and increased use of abortion concomitant with improved socioeconomic conditions.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

The population control helping sustainable economic development in Shantong province

A brief overview is presented of the impact of population control on sustainable economic development in Shantong Province, China. Family planning education was initiated in 1970. Birth control is now widely accepted among the population. The birth rate in 1995 was 9.82/1000 population. The natural growth rate was 0.335%. The population growth rate was below the national average. The total fertility rate was 1.1 children/woman. Shandong Province has a total population of 81 million people. Shandong's share of Chinese total population declined from 8.4% in 1949 to 7.2% in 1995. Gross domestic product in 1995 was 500 billion yuan. The annual urban expenditure was 4000 yuan/person, which was an increase of 1500 yuan from 1991. The annual rural net income was 1650 yuan/person, which was an increase of 680 yuan from 1991. During 1971-95, expenditures for bearing children declined by 492 billion yuan. The party secretary of the province stressed that population quality is desired now that the birth rate is under control.     

Communique of the State Family Planning Commission on a nationwide fertility sampling survey of every person per thousand

In 1982, the Chinese State Family Planning Commission conducted a nationwide fertility survey of 1 person/1000 in 28 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. 815 sample units were selected and 310,462 women aged 15-67 were interviewed, 99.9% of those identified. 252,094 (24.77%) were of childbearing age (15-49) with 24.76% 15-19 years old. Among women of fertile age, 31.46% were unmarried, 64.53% were married to their 1st husbands, 2.89% were remarried, .19% were divorced, and .94% were widowed. Average age of 1st marriage increased from 18.4 in the 1940s to 22.8 in 1981. Total fertility rate dropped from 5.44 in the 1940s to 2.63 in 1981. In 1981, the birth rate was 85/1000 women of fertile age. Fertility was much higher among minority nationalities. 118 million of China's 170 million married couples of reproductive age (69.46%) use birth control at present; 50.2% use the IUD, 25.4% tubal ligation, 10.0% vasectomy, 8.2% oral contraceptives, and 2.0% condoms. About 21 million married women should have begun using contraception but have not. 14 million or 42.3% of 33 million 1 child couples have pledged to have only 1 child. If the fertility level of 1981 is maintained and the average woman continues to have 2.63 children, 2.91 in rural areas, China's population will reach 1.2 billion by 1993 and will exceed 1.3 billion by 2000. The Central Committee has a target population of 1.2 billion by 2000.     

Population statistics] as of Oct 1, 1995

The publication of these statistics is part of an effort to provide current demographic estimates for Thailand every three months. The tabulated data pertain to October 1995. Estimates are provided for the following demographic measures: total population (59,627,000); male population (29,796,000); female population (29,831,000); urban population (18,830,000); rural population (40,797,000); population by region: northern region (11,978,000), northeastern region (19,413,000), southern region (7,464,000), central region excluding Bangkok Metro (12,936,000), and Bangkok Metropolis (7,836,000); population by age group: under 15 years (17,172,000), 15-59 years (38,102,000), 60 and over (4,353,000), 6-21 years (19,939,000), 18 years and over (38,528,000), 20 years and over (36,259,000), and women aged 15-44 years (15,393,000); crude birth rate per 1000 population (17.6), crude death rate per 1000 population (5.2); natural growth rate (1.2%); infant mortality rate per 1000 live births (30.8); male life expectancy at birth (66.6 years); female life expectancy at birth (71.7 years); male life expectancy at age 60 (18.8 years); female life expectancy at age 60 (22.0 years); total fertility rate (1.95); contraceptive prevalence rate (74.0%); and projected population for the year 2012 (71,860,000). A chart gives the estimated percentage of cumulative deaths from AIDS by age group in 2000 and 2005.     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Population change in the former Soviet Republics

Demographic trends in the former Soviet Republics and Russia are summarized and discussed in this publication. The former Soviet Republics in Europe as well as Georgia and Armenia had completed or almost completed their demographic transition before October 1991. Other Central Asian republics experienced reduced mortality, but, despite rapid declines, fertility is still above replacement level (at 3-4 children per woman). The economic and social dislocation of the breakup of the republics has hastened fertility decline. The annual population growth rate of the USSR in the mid-1980s was 0.9%; this rate declined to 0.4% in 1991, and the decline has continued. The 1991 population of the USSR was 289.1 million. Between 1989 and 1991, the crude birth rate was 18/1000 population, and the crude death rate was 10/1000. The net migration rate of -4/1000 helped to reduce growth. Total fertility in the USSR was 2.3 children in 1990. In Russia, fertility declined from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. The preferred family size in Russia was 1.9 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1993. This decline occurred due to lack of confidence in the economy and insufficient income. Only 19% of women used contraception in 1990. Marriages declined after 1990. Age pyramids were similar in the republics in that there was a narrowing in the proportion aged 45-49 years, and the male population aged over 65 years was diminished, due to the effect of World War II. The cohort of those aged 20-24 years in 1992 was very small due to the small parental birth cohort. The differences in the republics was characterized as broad-based in the younger ages because of high fertility. The number of childbearing women will remain large. Life expectancy has been 70 years since the 1950s and has declined in some republics due to substandard health care, lack of job safety measures, and alcoholism. Some republics experienced increased life expectancy, but, after 1991, mortality increased. Tajikistan had the highest infant mortality of 47/1000 live births in 1993. A demographic profile provided for each republic offers several population projection scenarios.     

Thailand population statistics

A few statistics on population for Thailand are reported for April 1, 1993. Total population is determined to be 58,113,000 of which 29,039,000 are males and 29,074,000 are females. The urban population was 17,852,000 and the rural population was 40,261,000. Regional distribution showed population in the north to be 9,443,000, in the northeast to be 19,590,000, in the south to be 7,107,000, and in the center excluding Bangkok to be 14,517,000. The population of Bangkok Metropolitan area was 7.5 million. Age distribution was 16.7 million under the age of 15 years, 19.4 million 6-21 years, 37.1 million 15-59 years, 4.2 million 60 years and older, and 35.3 million 20 years and older. There were 15,002,000 women in the reproductive ages of 15-44 years. The crude birth rate was 17.4/1000 population. The crude death rate was 5.9/1000 population. Infant mortality was 35.5/1000 live births. The natural growth rate was 1.15%. Life expectancy at birth was 66.4 years for males and 71.8 years for females. Life expectancy at 60 years was 17.9 years for males and 21.2 years for females. The total fertility rate was 2.2/woman. Contraceptive prevalence was 75.0%. Estimated population in the year 2012 is expected to be 71,310,000. A graph provides the projected number of living children per 1000 aged 12 years or younger who would be born to mothers with HIV infection and the number who would be orphans between 1990 and 2000. 350,000 children 12 years and under are expected to be born to HIV-infected mothers in the year 2000.     

ESCAP migration study gathers momentum

A comparative study is being conducted in the ESCAP (Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) region on the relationships of migration and urbanization to development. The 1st stage of the study will entail the preparation of country reports on the census analysis of migration, urbanization and development. The 2nd stage will involve preparation of a series of national migration surveys. The 3rd phase will involve assisting member governments to formulate a comprehensive population redistribution policy as part of their national development planning. 1st-phase country reports have been completed in Sri Lanka, South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Migration in Sri Lanka has largely been rural-to-rural with little urbanization so far. The picture in South Korea has been the opposite, with rapid urbanization in the 1960s and 1970s; the government is hoping to divert some population to smaller cities away from Seoul. The pattern in the Philippines is 1 of urban primacy with the metropolis of Manila accounting for over 1/3 of the country's total population. Indonesia is characterized by a dense heartland in the Java-Bali regions. However, the rate of urbanization here has been slower. Migrants in all the countries studied are preponderantly young. The sex differential varies from country to country. The influence of migration on subsequent fertility is unknown.     

Japan's fertility: effects of contraception and induced abortion after World War II

This report studies the effects of contraception and abortion on crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility rate (TFR) in Japan from 1947-1980. The CBR declined from 34.3 in 1947 to 17.3 in 1957, and the TFR from 4.5 to 2.0 in the same period. Both stabilized (CBR in the range of 17.0 to 19.0 and TFR at 2.0 to 2.1) between 1957 and 1973. This dramatic decline in fertility was initiated under the serious socioeconomic difficulties of post-World War II Japan. At the onset of the postwar fertility decline, fertility within marriage was controlled most strongly by induced abortion, and to a lesser extent, lactation and contraception. During the period of stable low fertility (1960-1980) the effect of abortion decreased and the effect of contraception increased. KAP surveys show that in the late 1970's more than 75% of contraceptive users in Japan employed the condom, while condom use in other Asian countries is generally very low. A shift from traditional to modern methods of contraception is unlikely to alter the already low level of fertility in Japan but would have considerable social, medical, and economic impact.     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 1998

This article presents estimates of relevant population numbers and vital rates in Thailand as of July 1, 1998. Utilizing the standard demographic techniques of analysis, the estimates provided are assured to be the most accurate demographic estimates possible. Total population was estimated at 61,143,000. Estimates by sex, locales, region, and by age group are included. In addition, the crude birth rate per 1000 population was estimated at 18.7; the crude death rate per 1000 population was 6.5. For the natural growth rate the estimate was at 1.2%, and the infant mortality rate was 25.0 per 1000 live births. In terms of life expectancy at birth, the estimate for males was 69.9 years, while for females it was 74.9 years. Additional years in life expectancy at age 60 were 20.3 years for males and 23.9 years for females. The total fertility rate per woman is 1.98, and contraceptive prevalence is 72.2%. The demographic data will be disseminated to Thai and international population researchers and planners.     

Population statistics] as of Jan 1, 1996

Population statistics are given for Thailand as of January 1, 1996. Total population was 59,709,000 (29,837,000 males and 29,872,000 females). Urban population was 18,856,000, and rural population was 40,853,000. Population is concentrated in the Northeastern Region (19,440,000), followed by the Central Region excluding Bangkok Metropolis (12,954,000) and the Northern Region (11,994,000). Population for the Southern Region was 7,475,000, and for Bangkok Metropolis it was 7,846,000. Population included 17,196,000 under 15 years of age and 4,359,000 aged 60 years and older. Most of the population was in the 15-59 age group (38,154,000). There were 15,414,000 women aged 15-44 years. The crude birth rate was 17.6/1000 population and the crude death rate was 5.2/1000 population. The natural growth rate was 1.2%. Infant mortality was 30.8/1000 live births. Life expectancy at birth was 66.6 years for males and 71.7 years for females; life expectancy at 60 years was 18.8 years for males and 22.0 years for females. The total fertility rate was 1.95 children/woman. Contraceptive prevalence was 74.0%. The population projection for the year 2012 is 70,479,000. It is expected that population will reach 60 million in June 1996.     

Sex preferences and fertility in South Korea during the year of the horse

Since antiquity, people in several East Asian countries, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, have believed that a person is destined to possess specific characteristics according to the sign of the zodiac under which he or she was born. South Koreans, in particular, have traditionally considered that the year of the Horse bears inauspicious implications for the birth of daughters. Using monthly longitudinal data at the region level in South Korea between 1970 and 2003, we found that in the year of the Horse, the sex ratio at birth significantly increased while fertility decreased.     

Population statistics] as of January 1, 2000

This table presents the population statistics of Thailand as of January 1, 2000. Thailand has a total population of 61,737,000; 30,726,000 are males and 31,011,000 are females. The urban areas have a population of 18,972,000, while the rural areas have a population of 42,765,000. The population numbers, by region, are the following: northern, 12,117,000; northeastern, 20,164,000; southern, 7,957,000; central (excluding Bangkok Metropolis), 13,654,000; Bangkok Metropolis, 7,845,000. Children (under age 15) numbered 14,764,000; labor force participants (ages 15-59), 41,647,000; the elderly (ages 60-79), 4,974,000; those aged 80 and above, 352,000; the school-age population (ages 6-21), 16,703,000; reproductive-age women (ages 15-44), 16,697,000; and the voting population (ages 18 and over), 43,691,000. The crude birth rate (per 1000 population) is 16.4, and the crude death rate is 6.5. Thailand has a natural growth rate of 1.0% and an infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) of 22.4. Life expectancy at birth among males and females is 69.9 and 74.9, respectively. The total fertility rate is 1.9/woman, the contraceptive prevalence rate is 72.2%, and the ratio of females per 1 male is 1.0 for ages 0-59, 1.1 for ages 60-79, and 2.0 for ages 80 and over.     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 2000

This Mahidol Population Gazette presents Thailand's population and demographic estimates as of July 1, 2000, using the standard techniques of demographic analysis. The paper provides estimates of Thailand's total population, population by sex, population in urban and rural areas, population by region, and by age group. In addition, figures of crude birth and death are listed per 1000 population, natural growth rate, and infant mortality rate per 1000 live births, male and females' life expectancy at birth and at age 60, total fertility rate, contraceptive prevalence rate. The number of the aged population in 2020 is also presented. Presented in a bar graph is a population pyramid for Thailand in the year 2000, illustrating male and females' age and year of birth.     

Population statistics] as of April 1, 1995

A one-page compendium of population data as of April 1, 1995, was provided for Thailand. Total population reached 59,160,000: 29,562,000 males and 29,598,000 females, and 18,683,000 in urban and 40,477,000 in rural areas. Regional distribution of population was 11,884,000 in the North region, 19,262,000 in the Northeast, 7,406,000 in the South, 12,834,000 in the Central (excluding Bangkok Metropolis), and 7,774,000 in Bangkok Metropolis. The age distribution of the population was as follows: 17,038,000 under 15 years old; 37,803,000 aged 15-59 years; 4,319,000 over 60 years old; 19,782,000 aged 6-21 years; 38,226,000 aged 18 years and older; 35,975,000 aged 20 years and older; and 15,273,000 women 15-44 years old. The crude birth rate was 17.4 per 1000 population. The crude death rate was 6.1 per 1000 population. The natural growth rate was 1.1%. The infant mortality rate was 30.9 per 1000 live births. Life expectancy at birth was 66.6 years for males and 71.7 years for females. Life expectancy at 60 years was 18.8 additional years for males and 22.0 additional years for females. The total fertility rate was 1.95 per woman. Contraceptive prevalence was 74.0%. Projected population in 2012 was 70,995,000 persons. Among youth 15-24 years old, 9% of rural single males and females, 25% of other urban single males, and 45% of single Bangkok males lived away from parents. 34% of single other urban females and 31% of single Bangkok females lived away from parents. In rural areas, 36% of married males and 42% of married females lived away from parents. In other urban areas, 64% of married males and 75% of married females lived away from parents. In Bangkok, 99% of married males and 81% of married females lived away from parents.     

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.     

Black America in the 1980s

This Bulletin reviews recent demographic and socioeconomic trends in the US black population in order to assess changes in the status of blacks relative to whites since publication of the 1962 edition of Gunnar Myrdal's 1944 classic "An American Dilemma." Blacks numbered 26.5 million in 1980, 11.7% of the total population, with 85% residing in urban areas compared to 71% of whites. Some suburbanization is now occurring among blacks but the majority remain segregated in central cities. In the 1970s, more blacks moved into the South than moved out in a reversal of the historic pattern. Blacks have shared the baby bust since the mid-1960s but teenage and out-of-wedlock fertility remain much higher than for whites as well as overall fertility (2.3 compared to 1.8 births/woman in 1979). Black infant mortality is still double that of whites and life expectancy is 6 years shorter (68.3 vs. 74.4 years in 1979). Single parents (mostly mothers) with children now comprise 31% of black families compared to 10% for the general population. Divorce and separation have risen faster for blacks than whites. Many of these gaps are related to blacks' continuing socioeconomic disadvantages: median family income is 56% that of whites; the poverty rate is 3.5 times higher; unemployment is twice as high. Occupational status has improved for blacks and their educational attainment is now close to that of whites, but these gains may be slowed and income differentials unimproved if the current administration's reversal of socioeconomic policy remains unchanged. Blacks are also affected more than other groups by the recent surge in immigrants who compete directly for the low-level jobs on which many blacks must still rely. (author's).