Family fertility: suggested and implemented model; a discussion paper

The author suggests that the "best" fertility rate is in the range close to simple replacement. He suggests that since actual and expected fertility in Poland today is close to this "best" rate, there is no need for social policies that would attempt to affect current population trends     

CO-tucker: a new method for the simultaneous analysis of a sequence of paired tables

Relationships between species and their environment are a key component to understand ecological communities. Usually, this kind of data are repeated over time or space for communities and their environment, which leads to a sequence of pairs of ecological tables, i.e. multi-way matrices. This work proposes a new method which is a combined approach of STATICO and Tucker3 techniques and deals to the problem of describing not only the stable part of the dynamics of structure–function relationships between communities and their environment (in different locations and/or at different times), but also the interactions and changes associated with the ecosystems’ dynamics. At the same time, emphasis is given to the comparison with the STATICO method on the same (real) data set, where advantages and drawbacks are explored and discussed. Thus, this study produces a general methodological framework and develops a new technique to facilitate the use of these practices by researchers. Furthermore, from this first approach with estuarine environmental data one of the major advantages of modeling ecological data sets with the CO-TUCKER model is the gain in interpretability.     

Developing a Liu estimator for the negative binomial regression model: method and application

This paper introduces a new shrinkage estimator for the negative binomial regression model that is a generalization of the estimator proposed for the linear regression model by Liu [A new class of biased estimate in linear regression, Comm. Stat. Theor. Meth. 22 (1993), pp. 393–402]. This shrinkage estimator is proposed in order to solve the problem of an inflated mean squared error of the classical maximum likelihood (ML) method in the presence of multicollinearity. Furthermore, the paper presents some methods of estimating the shrinkage parameter. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, it is shown that if the Liu estimator is applied with these shrinkage parameters, it always outperforms ML. The benefit of the new estimation method is also illustrated in an empirical application. Finally, based on the results from the simulation study and the empirical application, a recommendation regarding which estimator of the shrinkage parameter that should be used is given.     

Assessing a changepoint in a sequence of repeated measurements with application to a low-energy emission therapy sleep study

We describe a test statistic for a changepoint in a sequence of repeated measurements. This statistic is non-parametric, and may be motivated from either frequentist or Bayesian considerations. We apply this procedure to data arising from a clinical sleep study of low-energy emission therapy.     

Modeling demographic relationships: an analysis of forecast functions for Australian births

"This paper discusses the problem of modeling demographic variables for the purpose of forecasting." Two empirical model selection procedures, a time series approach and a sequential testing procedure, are applied to suggest final-form forecasting equations for an Australian births series, namely, first nuptial confinements. The models are compared with the method used to construct the Australian government's IMPACT demographic module. Comments by Joseph B. Kadane, Ronald Lee, Roderick J. A. Little, John F. Long, and Kenneth F. Wallis are included, together with a rejoinder by the author.     

Erratum to the paper: a note on reference prior for the scaler skew-normal distribution

Liseo and Loperfido [A note on reference priors for the scalar skew-normal distribution. J Statist Plann Inference. 2006;136(2):373–389] studied some peculiar features of default Bayes analysis of the scalar skew-normal model. In particular, they showed that, by considering the simplest model with a single unknown parameter λ of skewness, the reference – or Jeffreys’ – prior for this parameter is proper. They proved that tails of Jeffreys’ prior are of order O(λ^?3/2). But they made a mistake in their proof. In this note, we will modify their proof.     

Central limit theorem for the empirical process of a linear sequence with long memory

We discuss the functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for the empirical process of a moving-average stationary sequence with long memory. The cases of one-sided and double-sided moving averages are discussed. In the case of one-sided (causal) moving average, the FCLT is obtained under weak conditions of smoothness of the distribution and the existence of (2+δ)-moment of i.i.d. innovations, by using the martingale difference decomposition due to Ho and Hsing (1996, Ann. Statist. 24, 992–1014). In the case of double-sided moving average, the proof of the FCLT is based on an asymptotic expansion of the bivariate probability density.     

A new method for generating distributions with an application to exponential distribution

A new method has been proposed to introduce an extra parameter to a family of distributions for more flexibility. A special case has been considered in detail, namely one-parameter exponential distribution. Various properties of the proposed distribution, including explicit expressions for the moments, quantiles, mode, moment-generating function, mean residual lifetime, stochastic orders, order statistics, and expression of the entropies, are derived. The maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters cannot be obtained in explicit forms, and they have to be obtained by solving non linear equations only. Further, we consider an extension of the two-parameter exponential distribution also, mainly for data analysis purposes. Two datasets have been analyzed to show how the proposed models work in practice.     

Tests for comparing a sequence of bernoulli random variables to a sequence of known probabilities

The problem of determining whether a sequence of observed Bernoulli variates is consistent with a hypothesized underlying sequence of known probabilities is considered. A family of asymptotically normal test statistics is proposed, members of which are shown to be asymptotically locally optimal against specific types of alternatives. For small samples, a skewness correction is shown to improve greatly the adequacy of the asymptotic approximations to the null distributions of the proposed test statistics. The application of testing for increased cancer risk in families is considered, and modifications to the test statistics which adjust for the method of family ascertainment are indicated     

Vine copula approximation: a generic method for coping with conditional dependence

Pair-copula constructions (or vine copulas) are structured, in the layout of vines, with bivariate copulas and conditional bivariate copulas. The main contribution of the current work is an approach to the long-standing problem: how to cope with the dependence structure between the two conditioned variables indicated by an edge, acknowledging that the dependence structure changes with the values of the conditioning variables. The changeable dependence problem, though recognized as crucial in the field of multivariate modelling, remains widely unexplored due to its inherent complication and hence is the motivation of the current work. Rather than resorting to traditional parametric or nonparametric methods, we proceed from an innovative viewpoint: approximating a conditional copula, to any required degree of approximation, by utilizing a family of basis functions. We fully incorporate the impact of the conditioning variables on the functional form of a conditional copula by employing local learning methods. The attractions and dilemmas of the pair-copula approximating technique are revealed via simulated data, and its practical importance is evidenced via a real data set.     

Testing for a change point in a sequence of exponential random variables with repeated values

Two test statistics are proposed for the change-point problem with repeated values when the data follow an exponential distribution. The properties of these two statistics have been studied and their asymptotic distributions under the alternative have been derived. The powers of the two test statistics are compared. Real-data examples are presented to illustrate the application of these tests.     

Strawderman-type estimators for a scale parameter with application to the exponential distribution

It is shown that Strawderman's [1974. Minimax estimation of powers of the variance of a normal population under squared error loss. Ann. Statist. 2, 190–198] technique for estimating the variance of a normal distribution can be extended to estimating a general scale parameter in the presence of a nuisance parameter. Employing standard monotone likelihood ratio-type conditions, a new class of improved estimators for this scale parameter is derived under quadratic loss. By imposing an additional condition, a broader class of improved estimators is obtained. The dominating procedures are in form analogous to those in Strawderman [1974. Minimax estimation of powers of the variance of a normal population under squared error loss. Ann. Statist. 2, 190–198]. Application of the general results to the exponential distribution yields new sufficient conditions, other than those of Brewster and Zidek [1974. Improving on equivariant estimators. Ann. Statist. 2, 21–38] and Kubokawa [1994. A unified approach to improving equivariant estimators. Ann. Statist. 22, 290–299], for improving the best affine equivariant estimator of the scale parameter. A class of estimators satisfying the new conditions is constructed. The results shed new light on Strawderman's [1974. Minimax estimation of powers of the variance of a normal population under squared error loss. Ann. Statist. 2, 190–198] technique.     

An evaluation of change-point estimators for a sequence of normal observations with unknown parameters

Performance of maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the change-point in normal series is evaluated considering three scenarios where process parameters are assumed to be unknown. Different shifts, sample sizes, and locations of a change-point were tested. A comparison is made with estimators based on cumulative sums and Bartlett's test. Performance analysis done with extensive simulations for normally distributed series showed that the MLEs perform better (or equal) in almost every scenario, with smaller bias and standard error. In addition, robustness of MLE to non-normality is also studied.     

Limit laws for the cumulative number of ties for the maximum in a random sequence

Let {_Xn,n?1}$\{X_n,n?1\}$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables, taking nonnegative integer values. An observation _Xn$X_n$ is a tie for the maximum if _Xn=max{_X1,…,_Xn-1}$X_n=\max \{X_1,\dots ,X_{n-1}\}$. In this paper, we obtain weak and strong laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for the cumulative number of ties for the maximum among the first n$n$ observations.     

Nonparametric empirical Bayes method for comparison of treatment effects with application to stress urinary incontinence data

Hierarchical models are widely used in medical research to structure complicated models and produce statistical inferences. In a hierarchical model, observations are sampled conditional on some parameters and these parameters are sampled from a common prior distribution. Bayes and empirical Bayes (EB) methods have been effectively applied in analyzing these models. Despite many successes, parametric Bayes and EB methods may be sensitive to misspecification of prior distributions. In this paper, without specific restriction on the form of the prior distribution, we propose a nonparametric EB method to estimate the treatment effect of each group and develop a testing procedure to compare between-group differences. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed EB method was more efficient than some standard procedures. An illustrative example is provided with data from a clinical trial evaluating a new treatment for patients with stress urinary incontinence.     

Detection of changes in a random financial sequence with a stable distribution

Quick detection of unanticipated changes in a financial sequence is a critical problem for practitioners in the finance industry. Based on refined logarithmic moment estimators for the four parameters of a stable distribution, this article presents a stable-distribution-based multi-CUSUM chart that consists of several CUSUM charts and detects changes in the four parameters in an independent and identically distributed random sequence with the stable distribution. Numerical results of the average run lengths show that the multi-CUSUM chart is superior (robust and quick) on the whole to a single CUSUM chart in detecting the shift change of the four parameters. A real example that monitors changes in IBM's stock returns is used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.     

Functional version of the delta method and its application

Nonparametric estimation of the time varying parameter of a semimartingal e model is considered. Stochastic version of the delta method is given. Variance process o"f the estimators and the functionals of the estimators are studied in detail. As an application, a new estimate "for the variance of the product limit estimator is proposed.