LIVE AID REVISITED: LONG‐TERM IMPACTS OF THE 1984 ETHIOPIAN FAMINE ON CHILDREN

In 1984, the world was shocked at the scale of a famine in Ethiopia that caused over half a million deaths, making it one of the worst in recent history. The mortality impacts are clearly significant. But what of the survivors? This paper provides the first estimates of the long‐term impact of the famine 20 years later, on the height of young adults aged 19–22 years who experienced this severe shock as infants during the crisis. An innovative feature of the analysis is that famine intensity is measured at the household level, while impacts are assessed using a difference‐in‐differences comparison across siblings, and compared with an IV cross‐section, using rainfall as an instrument for the shock. We find that by adulthood, affected children who were aged of 12‐36 months at the peak of the crisis are significantly shorter than the older cohort, and their unaffected peers, by at least 5 cm. There are no significant effects on those in utero during the crisis, although we cannot rule out that for this cohort, the selection effect dominates scarring. Indicative calculations show that for the affected group such height loss may lead to income losses of around 5% per year over their lifetime. The evidence also suggests that the relief operations at the time made little difference to those who survived.     

Life Expectancy,Schooling, and Lifetime Labor Supply: Theory and Evidence Revisited

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the role of life expectancy for optimal schooling and lifetime labor supply. The results of a simple prototype Ben‐Porath model with age‐specific survival rates show that an increase in lifetime labor supply is not a necessary, or a sufficient, condition for greater life expectancy to increase optimal schooling. The observed increase in survival rates during working ages that follows from the “rectangularization” of the survival function is crucial for schooling and labor supply. The empirical results suggest that the relative benefits of schooling have been increasing across cohorts of U.S. men born between 1840 and 1930. A simple quantitative analysis shows that a realistic shift in the survival function can lead to an increase in schooling and a reduction in lifetime labor hours.     

Immigrants' Relative Earnings in Sweden — A Cohort Analysis

Abstract. This paper examines the earnings assimilation of immigrants in Sweden by applying a quantile regression approach on pooled data during the period 1990–99. Immigrants from Nordic and Western European countries have a smaller entry earnings disadvantage and slower rate of assimilation than other groups of immigrants. For some cohorts of immigrants from European countries the initial earnings disadvantage disappears after 15–20 years in Sweden, but as non‐European immigrants suffered from very large entry earnings disadvantages, their earnings will not catch up with the earnings of natives during their first 20 years in Sweden. More recent non‐European immigrant cohorts had a larger entry earnings disadvantage than previous ones. The immigration policy, discrimination, and the economic conditions may have contributed to the decline in the earnings assimilation of non‐European immigrants.     

Do the Falling Earnings of Immigrants Apply to Self‐employed Immigrants?

It is well known that the earnings of recent cohorts of immigrant men have fallen further behind native‐born men. Using several years of Canadian Census data, this study finds that immigrants have turned to self‐employment at a much faster rate than the native born. In addition, the earnings gap between self‐employed immigrant and native‐born men has not grown with successive cohorts, but rather has followed a cyclical movement: narrowing at the peak, and widening in times of weaker economic activity. However, immigrants choosing self‐employment still face challenges, as their earnings are far below native‐born earnings, and convergence is a lengthy process.     

Dynamic Female Labor Supply

The increase in female employment and participation rates is one of the most dramatic changes to have taken place in the economy during the last century. However, while the employment rate of married women more than doubled during the last 50 years, that of unmarried women remained almost constant. To empirically analyze these trends, we estimate a female dynamic labor supply model using an extended version of Eckstein and Wolpin (1989) to compare the various explanations in the literature for the observed trends. This dynamic model provides a much better fit to the life‐cycle employment pattern than a static version of the model and a standard static reduced form model (Heckman (1979)). The main finding using the dynamic model is that the rise in education levels accounts for about 33 percent of the increase in female employment, and the rise in wages and narrowing of the gender wage gap account for another 20 percent, while about 40 percent remains unexplained by observed household characteristics. We show that this unexplained portion can be empirically attributed to cohort‐specific changes in preferences or the costs of child‐rearing and household maintenance. Finally, the decline in fertility and the increase in divorce rates account for only a small share of the increase in female employment rates.     

Changes in Union Membership Over Time: A Panel Analysis for West Germany

Abstract. Despite the apparent stability of the wage bargaining institutions in West Germany, aggregate union membership has been declining dramatically since the early 1990s. However, aggregate gross membership numbers do not distinguish between employment status and it is impossible to disaggregate these sufficiently. This paper uses four waves of the German Socio‐economic Panel in 1985, 1989, 1993, and 1998 to perform a panel analysis of net union membership among employees. We estimate a correlated random‐effects probit model suggested by Chamberlain (Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. II, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1984) to take proper account of individual‐specific effects. Our results suggest that at the individual level the propensity to be a union member has not changed considerably over time. Thus, the aggregate decline in membership is due to composition effects. We also use the estimates to predict net union density at the industry level based on the IAB employment subsample for the time period 1985–97.     

Worker and Firm Heterogeneity in Wage Growth: An AKM Approach

This paper estimates a wage growth equation containing human capital variables known from the traditional Mincerian wage equation with year, worker and firm fixed effects included as well. The paper thus contributes further to the large empirical literature on unobserved heterogeneity following the work of Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis [1999; Econometrica 67(2): 251–333]. Our main contribution is to extend the analysis from wage levels to wage growth. The specification enables us to estimate the individual‐specific and firm‐specific fixed effects and their degree of explanation on wage growth. The analysis is conducted using Danish longitudinal matched employer–employee data from 1980 to 2006. We find that the worker fixed effect dominates both the firm fixed effect and the effect of the observed covariates. Worker effects are estimated to explain 7–12 per cent of the variance in wage growth whereas firm effects are estimated to explain 4–10 per cent. We furthermore find a negative correlation between the worker and firm effects, as do nearly all authors examining wage level equations.     

The Effects of Group Incentives in an Indian Firm: Evidence from Payroll Data

Abstract. This paper estimates the effects of group incentives on productivity, pay and employment in a large unionized firm in India. Using plant‐level monthly time‐series data from the payroll office for the period 1985–95, and controlling for both (plant) fixed effects and (contract) time effects, the paper provides econometric evidence on the effectiveness of both the level and intensity of incentive pay on the outcome measures. In addition, the relative performance of two types of group incentives defined on the basis of group size is also analysed. The results generally confirm predictions from theory that productivity returns to incentives are non‐linear and concave in shape and that the effectiveness of incentives is decreasing in group size. It is argued that the latter is most likely due to the lessening of the free‐rider problem and the increased effectiveness of peer monitoring associated with smaller groups. The results also point to a negative relationship between the level of incentives and employment over time.     

Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Evidence from Italy

Individual data from eight waves of the European Community Household Panel are used to investigate the impact of cohort size on age‐earnings and employment profiles of Italian male workers. Evidence that over the life cycle cohort size depresses employment opportunities of men with low education and earnings and employment rates of men with intermediate and high qualifications born into large cohorts is found. These results are used to carry out a simple simulation where the average future wages of Italian male workers are projected for the next 4.5 decades. According to this simulation, the wages of Italian male workers will follow a hump‐shaped pattern in the next three decades, before slightly increasing again.     

Unequal Opportunities for Young People with Immigrant Backgrounds in the Swedish Labour Market

Abstract. This paper investigates labour‐market performance for ‘young people with immigrant backgrounds’ and those ‘born in Sweden with native‐born parents’ in the Swedish labour market. It focuses on young people who were aged 18–20 during 1990, and their labour‐market status after 8 years, in 1998. The results indicate that young people of immigrant descent have lower annual wage income and are at higher risk of not being employed than those born in Sweden with native‐born parents. Differences in human capital characteristics cannot explain these results. Other theories, which stress the effect of discriminatory behaviour and the power of social network composition, are discussed as alternative interpretations. Having one native‐born parent is considered to be important to labour market success. However, having a native‐born father rather than a native‐born mother is associated with better labour‐market achievement.     

THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON THE STRUCTURE OF WAGES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM BRITAIN

Immigration to the UK, particularly among more educated workers, has risen appreciably over the past 30 years and as such has raised labor supply. However studies of the impact of immigration have failed to find any significant effect on the wages of native‐born workers in the UK. This is potentially puzzling since there is evidence that changes in the supply of educated natives have had significant effects on their wages. Using a pooled time series of British cross‐sectional micro data on male wages and employment from the mid‐1970s to the mid‐2000s, this paper offers one possible resolution to this puzzle, namely that in the UK natives and foreign born workers are imperfect substitutes. We show that immigration has primarily reduced the wages of immigrants—and in particular of university educated immigrants—with little discernable effect on the wages of the native‐born.     

Separation and Divorce: Effect on Family Structures and Life Conditions

The aim of this paper is to supply some basic data on separations and divorces in Italy in order to evaluate their impact on the family system both from a quantitative and qualitative point of view. The focus is on the role played by marital disruption in the observed recent increase in the number of ‘new families’ and its effects on the life conditions and economic well‐being of the women and children involved.     

MORE MISSING WOMEN,FEWER DYING GIRLS: THE IMPACT OF SEX‐SELECTIVE ABORTION ON SEX AT BIRTH AND RELATIVE FEMALE MORTALITY IN TAIWAN

This study finds that the introduction of sex‐selective abortion in Taiwan due to the legalization of abortion when prenatal sex‐detection technology was already available increased the fraction of males born at higher parities and changed the composition of mothers choosing to give birth. Controlling for compositional changes, we find that access to sex‐selective abortion reduced relative neonatal female mortality rates for higher‐parity births.     

Last‐In First‐Out Oligopoly Dynamics

This paper extends the static analysis of oligopoly structure into an infinite‐horizon setting with sunk costs and demand uncertainty. The observation that exit rates decline with firm age motivates the assumption of last‐in first‐out dynamics: An entrant expects to produce no longer than any incumbent. This selects an essentially unique Markov‐perfect equilibrium. With mild restrictions on the demand shocks, sequences of thresholds describe firms' equilibrium entry and survival decisions. Bresnahan and Reiss' (1993) empirical analysis of oligopolists' entry and exit assumes that such thresholds govern the evolution of the number of competitors. Our analysis provides an infinite‐horizon game‐theoretic foundation for that structure.     

Product Differentiation,Multiproduct Firms,and Estimating the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Productivity

This paper studies whether removing barriers to trade induces efficiency gains for producers. Like almost all empirical work which relies on a production function to recover productivity measures, I do not observe physical output at the firm level. Therefore, it is imperative to control for unobserved prices and demand shocks. I develop an empirical model that combines a demand system with a production function to generate estimates of productivity. I rely on my framework to identify the productivity effects from reduced trade protection in the Belgian textile market. This trade liberalization provides me with observed demand shifters that are used to separate out the associated price, scale, and productivity effects. Using a matched plant–product level data set and detailed quota data, I find that correcting for unobserved prices leads to substantially lower productivity gains. More specifically, abolishing all quota protections increases firm‐level productivity by only 2 percent as opposed to 8 percent when relying on standard measures of productivity. My results beg for a serious reevaluation of a long list of empirical studies that document productivity responses to major industry shocks and, in particular, to opening up to trade. My findings imply the need to study the impact of changes in the operating environment on productivity together with market power and prices in one integrated framework. The suggested method and identification strategy are quite general and can be applied whenever it is important to distinguish between revenue productivity and physical productivity.     

Multinational enterprises' Entry Mode Strategies and Uncertainty: A Review and Extension

The issue of uncertainty has been one of the most important topics in the research on multinational enterprises' foreign market entry modes. This paper provides a conceptual review of the literature on the role of uncertainty in entry‐mode strategies. It is found that transaction cost theory has focused primarily on entry modes as a way of minimizing behavioural uncertainty, while research using the more recent real options approach has distinguished between endogenous and exogenous types of uncertainty and provided evidence that managing uncertainty through appropriate entry modes may lead to competitive advantage. By synthesizing the relevant literature, this paper provides some new perspectives and avenues for future research on uncertainty and entry‐mode choices by considering the impact of firm learning, prior experience and host market attractiveness.     

Top employer awards: A double-edged sword?

Organizations often use top employer awards to confirm their quality as employers via an independent third party. At first, the advantages of using awards seem apparent, such as giving the organization an edge in recruitment by increasing the organizational attractiveness for jobseekers. Possible disadvantages accompanying the use of awards have received little attention. We argue that awards can cause potential applicants to pay less attention to information provided in recruitment materials that allow them to assess their organizational fit. Therefore, we investigated the influence of awards on the relationship between person–organization fit and attraction to organization as well as application decision. We include the corporate brand awareness (unknown vs. well-known) as a boundary condition. The results of our experiment show that, while awards increase organizational attractiveness, they also reduce the effect of person–organization fit on organizational attractiveness in the case of well-known organizations. Moreover, we found that awards indirectly affect application decision in the same way. Hence, successful self-selection based on fit is disturbed in this situation. Consequently, the quality of the applicant pool is reduced, resulting in a disadvantage for the well-known recruiting organization. Contrary to expectations, unknown organizations do not appear to be affected by this downside and instead benefit from awards. Our study contributes to the literature in recruiting by focusing on how awards change the impact of other information, while also highlighting potential disadvantages of employer awards.     

Impact of the Minimum Wage on Youth Labor Markets

We study the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes for young workers using US county‐level panel data from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2009. We go beyond the usual estimates of earnings and employment effects to consider how differences across states in the minimum wage affect worker turnover via separations and accessions and job turnover through new job creation and job losses. We find that a higher minimum wage level is associated with higher earnings, lower employment and reduced worker turnover for those in the 14–18 age group. For workers aged 19–21 and 22–24, we find less consistent evidence of minimum wage effects on earnings and employment. But, even for these age groups, a higher minimum wage is found to reduce accessions, separations and the turnover rate.     

Immigration,Growth, and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper examines empirically the interaction between immigration and host country economic conditions. We employ panel vector autoregression (VAR) techniques for a large annual data set on 22 OECD countries over the period 1987–2009. The VAR approach addresses the endogeneity problem by allowing for endogenous interactions between the variables in the system. Our results provide evidence of migration contribution to host economic prosperity (positive impact on GDP per capita and negative impact on aggregate unemployment, native‐ and foreign‐born unemployment rates). We also find that migration is influenced by host economic conditions (migration responds positively to host GDP per capita and negatively to host total unemployment rate).     

Does Formal Education for Older Workers Increase Earnings? — Evidence Based on Rich Data and Long‐term Follow‐up

Governments in Europe, Canada and the USA have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyse if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42–55 at the time of enrolment in 1994–95. The analysis explores longitudinal population register data stretching from 1982 to 2007. The method used is difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including indicators of health and labor market marginalization. Our findings underline the importance of long follow up periods and imply positive effects for women, especially so for women with children, and no significant average earnings effects for men. These results differ from earlier studies but are stable to several alternative assumptions regarding unobservable characteristics. Data further indicate that the gender gap in our estimates may stem from differences in underlying reasons for enrolment.