Do Lower Top Marginal Tax Rates Slow the Income Growth of Workers?

Top marginal tax rates are positively correlated with the pretax income growth of the bottom 90 per cent — those who are not subject to the top rates. To explain this correlation, this paper presents and tests a model in which executives can increase firm profitability by (i) increasing the firm's level of technology and (ii) decreasing labor costs. In the model, higher marginal tax rates may reduce pretax inequality by increasing the average income growth of workers. This hypothesis is tested by examining the effect of top marginal tax rates on (unobserved) relative bargaining power between labor and firms and, therefore, on the income growth of workers in the USA. Bargaining power, in both the theoretical and the empirical models, is proxied by private‐sector unionization and use of offshore labor resulting in higher imports.     

对外直接投资对母国收入差距的影响效应——基于跨国面板数据的研究

本文将企业异质性理论引入内生增长模型，讨论对外直接投资（OFDI）对母国收入差距的影响机理，并基于1981~2015年85个国家（地区）的面板数据，同时运用静态模型与动态模型验证了二者间存在"倒U型"关系，即随着对外直接投资强度的提升，母国收入差距呈现先扩大再缩小的态势；OFDI一方面通过促进母国的技术进步与产业结构升级、挤出部分国内投资等渠道加剧了收入不平等程度，另一方面以推动母国的金融发展与教育拓展等方式对收入差距产生削减效果；OFDI对收入差距的影响在不同经济发展水平、不同地理区位的国家中具有异质性：当人均GDP小于5767.53美元时，对外直接投资强度显著地扩大了母国收入差距，当人均GDP超过5767.53美元时，二者之间不存在显著的线性关系；欧洲国家的OFDI与收入差距之间呈现出"倒U型"关系，美洲、亚洲国家的OFDI促进了母国收入差距的扩大，非洲国家的OFDI对收入差距无显著影响；此外，OFDI对母国收入差距的影响具有跨期效应，随着时间推移与OFDI存量增加，其间接效应的边际效果有所减弱。     

LABOR‐ AND CAPITAL‐AUGMENTING TECHNICAL CHANGE

I analyze an economy in which firms can undertake both labor‐ and capital‐augmenting technological improvements. In the long run, the economy resembles the standard growth model with purely labor‐augmenting technical change, and the share of labor in GDP is constant. Along the transition path, however, there is capital‐augmenting technical change and factor shares change. Tax policy and changes in labor supply or savings typically change factor shares in the short run, but have no or little effect on the long‐run factor distribution of income. (JEL: O33, O14, O31, E25)     

Short‐Run Subsidies and Long‐Run Adoption of New Health Products: Evidence From a Field Experiment

Short‐run subsidies for health products are common in poor countries. How do they affect long‐run adoption? A common fear among development practitioners is that one‐off subsidies may negatively affect long‐run adoption through reference‐dependence: People might anchor around the subsidized price and be unwilling to pay more for the product later. But for experience goods, one‐off subsidies could also boost long‐run adoption through learning. This paper uses data from a two‐stage randomized pricing experiment in Kenya to estimate the relative importance of these effects for a new, improved antimalarial bed net. Reduced form estimates show that a one‐time subsidy has a positive impact on willingness to pay a year later inherit. To separately identify the learning and anchoring effects, we estimate a parsimonious experience‐good model. Estimation results show a large, positive learning effect but no anchoring. We black then discuss the types of products and the contexts inherit for which these results may apply.     

Do Interactions between Finance and Labour Market Institutions Affect the Income Distribution?

This article analyses the linkages between financial development, labour market institutions and market income inequality for 18 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries over the 1980 to 2012 period. With the help of a dynamic panel data model with an interacted term, one crucial contribution of this article is to analyse the interacted impact of labour market institutions (i.e. union density and employment protection legislation) on the one hand and financial development on the other hand on the income distribution. Our results indicate that changes in the financial/credit and labour market regulation affect the income distribution. Estimates of the marginal effects show that by increasing labour market regulation one also weakens the impact of the flexibilization in the financial/credit market on the increase in income inequality.     

Trends in Danish Income Distribution

Most of the available evidence on income distribution in Denmark is based on cross‐section studies for a number of specific years, which are difficult to compare owing to major changes in definitions and concepts. The data base for the present study is an existing longitudinal sample of 5 percent of the adult Danish population containing a great number of background variables for the individuals. Based on this, new results on Danish income distribution, using both individuals and married couples as the income unit, are presented. We concentrate on the impact from female participation and from unemployment. In the final parts of the paper we include some semi‐lifecycle distribution measures based on work in the Danish Economic Council and relate our results to earlier long–run estimates of inequality in Danish income distribution.     

The Determinants of Child Labour: The Role of Primary Product Specialization

Abstract. The paper tests predictions of a traditional intra‐household bargaining model which, under reasonable assumptions, shows that lack of bargaining power in the value chain significantly reduces the capacity for obtaining benefits from increased product demand arising from trade liberalization and therefore is positively associated with child labour. Cross‐sectional and panel negative binomial estimates in a sample of emerging countries support this hypothesis. They show that proxies of domestic workers’ bargaining power in the international division of labour (such as the share of primary product exports) are significantly related to child labour, net of the effect of traditional controls such as parental income, quality of education, international aid, and trade liberalization. The positive impact of the share of primary product exports on child labour outlines a potential paradox. The paradox suggests that trade liberalization does not always have straightforward positive effects on social indicators and that its short‐run effects on income distribution and distribution of skills and market power across countries need to be carefully evaluated.     

Managerial Delegation under Alternative Unionization Structures

This paper studies the effects of managerial delegation in a duopoly game under alternative unionization structures. Introducing managerial delegation in a framework with centralized unionization leads to incentives for sales, lower profits and higher consumer surplus as well as overall welfare. In contrast, delegating output decisions to managers in the presence of decentralized unionization produces opposite results unless unions are strongly employment‐oriented. Moreover, managerial delegation makes unionization structure neutral in relation to consumer surplus and overall efficiency. Finally, the timing of moves in the three‐stage game proves to be important for obtaining the above qualitative results under decentralized unionization.     

UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE US WAGE DISTRIBUTION: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

In this paper, we propose an analytically tractable overlapping‐generations model of human capital accumulation and study its implications for the evolution of the US wage distribution from 1970 to 2000. The key feature of the model, and the only source of heterogeneity, is that individuals differ in their ability to accumulate human capital. Therefore, wage inequality results only from differences in human capital accumulation. We examine the response of this model to skill‐biased technical change (SBTC) theoretically. We show that in response to SBTC, the model generates behavior consistent with some prominent trends observed in the US data including (i) a rise in overall wage inequality both in the short run and long run, (ii) an initial fall in the education premium followed by a strong recovery, leading to a higher premium in the long run, (iii) the fact that most of this fall and rise takes place among younger workers, (iv) a rise in within‐group inequality, (v) stagnation in median wage growth (and a slowdown in aggregate labor productivity), and (vi) a rise in consumption inequality that is much smaller than the rise in wage inequality. These results suggest that the heterogeneity in the ability to accumulate human capital is an important feature for understanding the effects of SBTC and interpreting the transformation of the US labor markets since the 1970s.     

The Dynamics of Inequality

The past forty years have seen a rapid rise in top income inequality in the United States. While there is a large number of existing theories of the Pareto tail of the long‐run income distributions, almost none of these address the fast rise in top inequality observed in the data. We show that standard theories, which build on a random growth mechanism, generate transition dynamics that are too slow relative to those observed in the data. We then suggest two parsimonious deviations from the canonical model that can explain such changes: “scale dependence” that may arise from changes in skill prices, and “type dependence,” that is, the presence of some “high‐growth types.” These deviations are consistent with theories in which the increase in top income inequality is driven by the rise of “superstar” entrepreneurs or managers.     

Union–Firm Bargaining,Productivity Improvement and Endogenous Growth

This paper presents a growth model with two sectors. In the high‐tech sector, R&D increases productivity and union–firm bargaining determines wages, but in the traditional sector there are neither R&D nor labour unions. The government is able to regulate union bargaining power. The main results are as follows. Because firms try to escape wage increases through the improvement of productivity by R&D, the increase in union bargaining power boosts R&D and growth. It is welfare enhancing to strengthen (weaken) unions when the growth rate is below (above) some critical level. A specific rule is presented for when de‐unionization is socially desirable.     

Higher Education Levels,Firms’ Outside Options and the Wage Structure

Abstract. We analyze the consequences of an increase in the supply of highly educated workers on relative and real wages in a search model where wages are set by Nash bargaining. A key insight is that an increase in the average education level exerts a negative externality on wages through its positive externality on the firms’ outside option. As a consequence, the real wage of all workers decreases in the short run. Since this decline is more pronounced for less educated workers, wage inequality increases. In the long‐run a better educated work force induces firms to invest more in physical capital. Wage inequality and real wages of highly educated workers increase while real wages of less educated workers may decrease. These results are consistent with the US experience in the 1970s and 1980s. Based upon differences in legal employment protection we also provide an explanation for the diverging evolution of real and relative wages in Continental Europe.     

A Causality Analysis of Economic Growth and Union Density in European Countries

In this paper, we analyse the relationship between union density and economic growth using a Granger causality analysis and shocks analysis with vector autoregression model. We find that the Granger causality goes from the growth rate to the unionization rate in four of the 11 European countries under study. France bucks the trend: it is the only country in which union density influences economic growth, moreover in a positive way.     

Educational Inequality

Abstract. This paper develops a theoretical model of the inequality in wages and salaries associated with differences in years of schooling (educational inequality, for short). Our model assumes that in the long run individual decisions to become more educated equalize the lifetime earnings of more educated workers and comparable less educated workers. Given this assumption, our model implies that innovations that increase the relative demand for more educated labor, and which cause short‐run increases in educational inequality, in the long run induce offsetting increases in the relative supply of more educated labor. But our model also has the novel implication that innovations that increase differences between the wages and salaries received by workers with the same years of education who are more or less able (ability premiums, for short) cause a smaller fraction of workers to choose to become more educated. Consequently, innovations that increase ability premiums in the long run also cause educational inequality to be larger than otherwise. In applying our theory to recent changes in educational inequality in the USA, we suggest that, to the extent that innovations that increase ability premiums are contributing to educational inequality, the increases in educational inequality during the 1980s and 1990s are unlikely to be reversed soon.     

Unions and the Welfare Impact of Foreign Direct Investment — A Wisdom Extension

Abstract. This paper extends the recent literature, e.g. Leahy and Montagna (Economic Journal 110: 80–92, 2000), in relation to the link between unionization, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and country welfare in an oligopoly market structure. It is shown that the common results, that unions may reduce welfare under FDI while multinational enterprises (MNEs) will strictly trade off union wages at each location, are generally driven by the assumption relating to the scope of the bargaining with the union, namely the ‘right to manage’ (RTM). In particular, our extension to efficient bargaining (EB) demonstrates that union power may increase welfare in the presence of FDI, while the MNEs’ choice between FDI and exports will include profit‐sharing arbitrage with unions, in addition to the usual wage comparison considerations.     

A GLOBAL VIEW OF CROSS‐BORDER MIGRATION

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi‐sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm‐level data. Our framework features cross‐country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances, and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of migration to a no‐migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that received a lot of migration—such as Canada or Australia—are better off due to greater product variety available in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run, the impact of migration on average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled natives tend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries with large emigration flows—such as Jamaica or El Salvador—are also better off due to migration, but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration is substantial, at about 5% to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries with large incoming remittances.     

Unions’ and Firms’ Attitudes Towards Research Joint Ventures: When Will the Incentives Be Aligned?

Abstract. This paper studies the relationship between unionization and innovation activity. Under a unionized labour market, we find that when R&D spillovers are relatively low (high), cooperative, as well as non‐cooperative R&D is a strategic substitute (complement). Furthermore, irrespective of the spillover rate, cooperation increases firms’ profits, whereas it increases union utility only if spillovers are sufficiently high. Alignment of incentives between firms and unions requires that firms pay transfers in the form of ‘rent‐sharing’ to make a Research Joint Venture attractive to unions. Our results suggest that if spillovers are low enough, the amount of money that firms give up in order to buy unions’ acquiescence weakens their incentives to form a Research Joint Venture.     

Unionization and Labour‐market Discrimination: A Closer Look at Non‐unionized Workers

This paper introduces a model that examines the effects of unions on pay and hiring gaps between non‐unionized men and women in the context of imperfect competition. Although the model does not question the advantages unions obtain for their members, it does show that (1) unions increase wage and occupational discrimination for non‐unionized workers; (2) the non‐unionized sector does not constitute a good comparison group for use in analysing the impact of unions on gender discrimination; and (3) public policies targeting gender differences in occupational sorting can also have a positive impact on gender wage differentials.     

Flood Risk Management: Exploring the Impacts of the Community Rating System Program on Poverty and Income Inequality

Flooding remains a major problem for the United States, causing numerous deaths and damaging countless properties. To reduce the impact of flooding on communities, the U.S. government established the Community Rating System (CRS) in 1990 to reduce flood damages by incentivizing communities to engage in flood risk management initiatives that surpass those required by the National Flood Insurance Program. In return, communities enjoy discounted flood insurance premiums. Despite the fact that the CRS raises concerns about the potential for unevenly distributed impacts across different income groups, no study has examined the equity implications of the CRS. This study thus investigates the possibility of unintended consequences of the CRS by answering the question: What is the effect of the CRS on poverty and income inequality? Understanding the impacts of the CRS on poverty and income inequality is useful in fully assessing the unintended consequences of the CRS. The study estimates four fixed‐effects regression models using a panel data set of neighborhood‐level observations from 1970 to 2010. The results indicate that median incomes are lower in CRS communities, but rise in floodplains. Also, the CRS attracts poor residents, but relocates them away from floodplains. Additionally, the CRS attracts top earners, including in floodplains. Finally, the CRS encourages income inequality, but discourages income inequality in floodplains. A better understanding of these unintended consequences of the CRS on poverty and income inequality can help to improve the design and performance of the CRS and, ultimately, increase community resilience to flood disasters.     

INSTITUTION‐INDUCED PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES AND PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

This paper studies theoretically how the cross‐country differences in the institutional quality (IQ) of domestic credit markets shape the patterns of international capital flows when such IQ differences also cause productivity differences across countries. IQ affects productivity by changing productivity–agency‐cost trade‐offs across heterogeneous investment projects. Such institution‐induced productivity differences are shown to have effects on the investment and capital flows that are opposite of exogenous productivity differences. This implies that the overall effect of IQ could generate U‐shaped responses of the investment and capital flows. Among other things, this means that capital could flow from middle‐income countries to both low‐income and high‐income countries, and that, starting from a very low IQ, a country could experience both a growth and a current account surplus after a successful institutional reform. More generally, the results here provide some cautions when interpreting the empirical evidence on the role of productivity differences and institutional differences on capital flows. It also calls into question the validity of treating the degree of financial frictions as a proxy for the quality of financial institutions, as commonly done in the literature.