控制权、破产风险与我国民营公司负债行为

以2001~2004年的经验数据为样本,对负债的股权非稀释效应和破产监督效应进行了实证检验。结果表明,与非民营企业相比,我国民营企业倾向于采用更高的负债率,这主要是由于受负债融资的股权非稀释效应的激励。就民营公司全样本而言,家族持股比例与负债水平的关系不显著,进一步按持股比例的不同区间将民营企业划分为多个子样本进行检验,均发现家族持股比例与负债水平负相关,而且家族持股比例位于20%~30%的民营企业负债率显著高于其他民营企业。以上2种效应都得到了实证结论的支持:股权非稀释效应激励家族控制能力较弱的公司采用较高的负债率以集中投票权;破产监督效应迫使家族控制能力较强的公司采用较低的负债水平以规避破产风险。     

负债融资与企业投资决策：破产风险视角的互动关系研究

本文以中国上市公司为样本,研究了破产风险视角下负债融资与企业投资之间的动态作用关系.结果发现,在整体上负债融资会通过对破产风险的正向影响负向地作用于企业的投资决策,反过来.投资支出会负向地影响企业的破产风险,从而有利于负债融资的增加.在代理冲突下这种互动关系会产生异化:在低成长情形下,破产风险一方面会导致控股企业过度投资,另一方面会对非控股企业过度投资产生治理效应;由于低成长企业股东或经理过度投资问题,投资不会降低企业破产风险;在高成长情形下,破产风险会导致绝对控股企业投资不足;高成长情形下,只有相对控股企业的投资具有显著的风险抑制效应.     

不确定环境下战略性债务融资与寡头竞争的互动研究

本文通过构建一个两阶段的博弈模型,考虑不确定环境下企业的产品市场竞争策略和资本市场上债务融资策略之间的内在战略关系,并在战略性债务融资的框架下,分析了市场进入中企业的竞争策略与融资策略的选择.得出二者之间存在双向互动关系的结论.     

负债企业控制权转移的时机和均衡价格

应用实物期权博弈论和一般均衡理论,推导出了负债企业在信息不完美条件下控制权转移最优时机和均衡价格的解析解, 并对最优时机和均衡价格的主要影响因素进行敏感性分析。研究结果表明: 在其他条件不变的前提下, 目标企业的规模越大、兼并双方购买沉没成本越小、控股比例越高、购买者期望协同效应越大、息票率越高,税率越高, 则均会导致控制权转移越快, 转移的均衡价格越低。目标企业所处的产业增长率和波动率越高, 则控制权转移越快, 转移的均衡价格越低,并具有双重效应。控制权转移的时机和转移均衡价格不是控制因子的单调函数。     

抵押贷款证券的效用无差别定价

当前抵押贷款证券化产品定价方法主要是现金流贴现取平均的方式,其本质是一种风险中性定价,忽视了不同投资者的风险态度在资产定价中的决定作用。本文运用Hodges and Neuberger(1989)提出的效用无差别定价原理,提出抵押贷款证券化衍生产品定价的一种新的方法。假设投资者具有对数消费效用,本文得到了易于实现的抵押贷款证券化产品定价计算公式,给出了Monte Carlo数值计算方法和应用举例,并进行了比较静态分析。     

基于税收利益与破产成本的企业投融资决策互动关系研究

本文以实物期权方法为工具,从税收利益与破产成本视角分析了企业投融资决策的互动关系。通过分析发现,企业最优投融资决策会因为税收利益和破产成本而产生一种相互作用的关系,但在股东债权人利益冲突下,股东会倾向于追逐更多的税收利益而产生过度投资的问题,并因此产生更高的负债融资成本,最终导致企业融资决策的非效率。然而,负债代理冲突下的过度投资会因资本折旧的税盾替代效应而有所缓和,并因此降低企业因过度投资产生的融资决策非效率。     

创新水平差异对融资方式选择影响——基于风险资本与银行债务资本的比较研究

本文通过构建一个模型分析了在存在双重道德风险的情况下,项目的创新水平对企业家选择融资方式的影响,研究认为在较低的创新水平下企业家将会选择银行债务融资;较高的创新水平企业家将会选择风险资本融资。模型进一步分析了创新水平对风险资本融资融资契约中风险资本家股权份额分配的影响,研究认为创新水平的增加将会引起风险资本家股权份额的增加。     

Competing on Time: An Integrated Framework to Optimize Dynamic Time‐to‐Market and Production Decisions

This study develops a comprehensive framework to optimize new product introduction timing and subsequent production decisions faced by a component supplier. Prior to market entry, the supplier performs process design activities, which improve manufacturing yield and the chances of getting qualified for the customer's product. However, a long delay in market entry allows competitors to enter the market and pass the customer's qualification process before the supplier, reducing the supplier's share of the customer's business. After entering the market and if qualified, the supplier also needs to decide how much to produce for a finite planning horizon by considering several factors such as manufacturing yield and stochastic demand, both of which depend on the earlier time‐to‐market decision. To capture this dependency, we develop a sequential, nested, two‐stage decision framework to optimize the time‐to‐market and production decisions in relation to each other. We show that the supplier's optimal market entry and qualification timing decision need to be revised in real time based on the number of qualified competitors at the time of market‐entry decision. We establish the optimality of a threshold policy. Following this policy, at the beginning of each decision epoch, the supplier should optimally stop preparing for qualification and decide whether to enter the market if her order among qualified competitors exceeds a predetermined threshold. We also prove that the supplier's optimal production policy is a state‐dependent, base‐stock policy, which depends on the time‐to‐market and qualification decisions. The proposed framework also enables a firm to quantify how market conditions (such as price and competitor entry behavior) and operating conditions (such as the rate of learning and inventory/production‐related costs) affect time‐to‐market strategy and post‐entry production decisions.     

过度自信与公平对风险投资契约与绩效的影响研究

从行为金融的视角,研究了在单边道德风险的情况下,企业家的过度自信与公平感受对自利的风险投资家的风险投资契约设计与绩效的影响,即在单边委托-代理模型中,随着企业家过度自信水平的增加,不论企业家是自利型还是不平等厌恶型,风险投资家提供给企业家的最优股权比例都在减少。同时,随着企业家过度自信水平的增加,其付出的努力水平也在增加。在企业家群体中同时存在上述2种类型的企业家时,无论企业家是自利型还是不平等厌恶型,福利水平都将随着企业家过度自信水平的增加而增大。     

汇率对FDI的影响： 基于实物期权的理论分析与中国的实证

基于外商直接投资的期权特性,本文运用实物期权理论就汇率对外商直接投资之间的关系进行建模,理论上证明人民币汇率水平、汇率预期和汇率波动对中国吸收外商直接投资存在的影响.在此基础上运用中国的数据对模型得出的结论进行了实证分析,考虑到2005年人民币汇率形成机制的改革对汇率水平及汇率预期有很大影响,本文将样本分为汇改前和汇改后两段.分段样本的实证研究表明,2005年汇改前人民币汇率的预期一直是影响中国FDI的主要因素,但人民币实际有效汇率及其波动性对FDI的影响不显著;2005年汇改后,人民币汇率预期对FDI的影响变得更大,人民币实际有效汇率对FDI的影响变得显著,但人民币实际有效汇率的波动性对中国FDI的影响仍不显著.基于此,本文提出了相应的政策建议.     

平台企业竞争有效性及投资策略性效果研究

平台企业通常会对其各类市场实施交叉补贴。本文建立一般模型,证明了当双边市场中存在交叉补贴情形的平台企业竞争,将导致受补贴市场的补贴程度下降。这一结论打破了传统理论中竞争降低市场价格,提高市场效率的判定。同时,以降低成本投资为例,研究表明了平台企业策略性效果与传统理论研究的不同:受补贴市场的降低成本的投资,可能令竞争对手的利润增加,而且对自身利润的间接效应与对竞争对手的利润策略性影响可能方向不一致。     

最短时限运输问题及解法

提出了存在于实际中的最短时限运输问题,研究了其解的最优性充分条件,并给出了求解这一问题的具体步骤,最后用实例说明了解法的可操作性,该解法是解决这一类问题的一个好算法。     

组内竞争与组间竞争对企业绩效的影响差异——基于移动壁垒分隔作用的研究

本文基于战略群组理论,通过实证研究探索了组内竞争、组间竞争对移动壁垒内外部企业具有的不同影响。以中国制药业上市公司为样本,采用阶层聚类分析中的Ward法进行战略群组划分,识别行业中的移动壁垒并将其保护功能作为调节变量,然后分别使用POLS和RE回归模型对两类竞争的效果进行了分析检验。研究发现,组内竞争对于移动壁垒外部企业绩效的不利影响显著大于其对壁垒内部企业的影响;相反,组间竞争对移动壁垒内部企业绩效的不利影响显著大于其对壁垒外部企业的影响。上述发现表明,行业中不同类型竞争的效果存在显著差异,而企业相对于移动壁垒的位置是造成上述差异的重要原因。对竞争效果的准确分析需把握以下两方面因素:行业中有哪些移动壁垒,以及竞争发生在组内还是组间。     

Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia

Much evidence suggests that people are heterogeneous with regard to their abilities to make rational, forward‐looking decisions. This raises the question as to when the rational types are decisive for aggregate outcomes and when the boundedly rational types shape aggregate results. We examine this question in the context of a long‐standing and important economic problem: the adjustment of nominal prices after an anticipated monetary shock. Our experiments suggest that two types of bounded rationality—money illusion and anchoring—are important behavioral forces behind nominal inertia. However, depending on the strategic environment, bounded rationality has vastly different effects on aggregate price adjustment. If agents' actions are strategic substitutes, adjustment to the new equilibrium is extremely quick, whereas under strategic complementarity, adjustment is both very slow and associated with relatively large real effects. This adjustment difference is driven by price expectations, which are very flexible and forward‐looking under substitutability but adaptive and sticky under complementarity. Moreover, subjects' expectations are also considerably more rational under substitutability.     

实物期权视角下政治关联与民营企业的成长价值

利用实物期权理论,利用867个民营上市公司样本,实证分析了民营企业先天"出生"和后天"红顶"这2种政治关联形式对企业成长的作用,其中,前者指民营企业家和高管是否拥有政府工作经历,后者指是否拥有人大政协的政治身份。实证结果发现,政府经历型关联提高了企业增长期权价值,但是政治身份型关联却降低了企业增长期权价值。民营企业的政治关联并非必定带来绝对收益,而是具有"得到与付出"双重效应。在经济转型过程中民营企业的战略意图逐渐向市场化倾斜。     

战略联盟的范围、治理与稳定性间关系的实证研究

本文从联盟伙伴间的关系视角出发,分析了战略联盟的合作范围和治理类型对伙伴间关系稳定性的影响.由于稳定性是一个抽象且难以用显性指标直接测量的变量,本文把它构建为一个二阶因子结构,并用企业间信任、相互依赖和冲突解决这三个一阶因子来度量它.在此基础上,通过问卷调查获得127家德国联盟企业的数据,并对提出的假说进行了检验,分析结果表明合资企业比非股权契约联盟更有可能享有稳定的伙伴间合作关系,而联盟的范围即联盟协议中所包含的合作活动的多少对联盟稳定性没有显著的影响.     

转型经济背景下的组织复杂性动因研究:环境不确定性和战略导向的作用

基于468家中国企业的实证研究,考察了不同环境及战略导向对组织复杂性的驱动作用。在分析相关文献形成研究假设的基础上运用实证的方法进行检验。研究结论验证了当前转型经济背景下不确定环境特征和战略导向对企业组织复杂性的不同驱动作用,对企业根据所处环境及其战略导向认识并有的放矢的应对不同组织复杂性有重要意义。     

Clinical Capital and the Risk of Maternal Labor and Delivery Complications: Hospital Scheduling,Timing, and Cohort Turnover Effects

The establishment of interventions to maximize maternal health requires the identification of modifiable risk factors. Toward the identification of modifiable hospital‐based factors, we analyze over 2 million births from 2005 to 2010 in Texas, employing a series of quasi‐experimental tests involving hourly, daily, and monthly circumstances where medical service quality (or clinical capital) is known to vary exogenously. Motivated by a clinician's choice model, we investigate whether maternal delivery complications (1) vary by work shift, (2) increase by the hours worked within shifts, (3) increase on weekends and holidays when hospitals are typically understaffed, and (4) are higher in July when a new cohort of residents enter teaching hospitals. We find consistent evidence of a sizable statistical relationship between deliveries during nonstandard schedules and negative patient outcomes. Delivery complications are higher during night shifts (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.18–1.25), and on weekends (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04–1.14) and holidays (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04–1.60), when hospitals are understaffed and less experienced doctors are more likely to work. Within shifts, we show deterioration of occupational performance per additional hour worked (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01–1.02). We observe substantial additional risk at teaching hospitals in July (OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.14–1.43), reflecting a cohort‐turnover effect. All results are robust to the exclusion of noninduced births and intuitively falsified with analyses of chromosomal disorders. Results from our multiple‐test strategy indicate that hospitals can meaningfully attenuate harm to maternal health through strategic scheduling of staff.     

CEO satisfaction and intended strategic changes: The moderating role of performance cues

How do CEOs react to attainment discrepancies in their organizations' performance? Scholars have generally argued that (only) when performance falls below a certain aspiration level do CEOs intend to change the organization's strategy. However, empirical evidence on this issue is ambiguous and inconclusive. We address this puzzle directly by studying how CEOs' cognitive interpretations of performance (their satisfaction with the firm's performance) affect the magnitude of intended strategic changes, and we explore the moderating effect of the context (performance compared to the industry) on this relationship. Using a sample of medium-sized organizations, we find that CEOs' satisfaction with performance is negatively related to intended strategic changes, as expected, but only in contexts of poor performance compared to the industry. The negative relationship becomes less pronounced when performance compared to the industry reaches a certain threshold and even appears to reverse when the latter is extremely high. Moreover, exploratory post hoc analyses tentatively suggest the existence of two alternative intended change trajectories: contractive as a reaction to dissatisfaction and poor performance, and expansive as a response to satisfaction and high performance. These findings help to contextualize the effects of attainment discrepancies in light of conventional performance feedback theory and alternative theoretical perspectives.     

公司的成长机会、银行债务与资本结构的选择--来自中国上市公司的证据

本文使用参数和非参数检验程序、回归分析检查了资本结构和长期银行债务使用之间的关系,分析了银行审查和监督对资本结构的影响.研究发现,长期银行债务的使用与债务比率显著正相关,且在控制杠杆的其它决定因素下,这个结论是稳健的.本文的一个隐含结论是,我国企业在公司债券融资比重很小的情况下,应减少依赖银行债务,适度增加股权融资比率,这意味着公司有更多的成长机会.