PROFIT SHARING, WAGE BARGAINING, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

The Paper examines the effects of profit sharing in an economy with decentralized wage bargaining. Profit sharing makes workers' income more sensitive to wage changes, and this leads to wage moderation. But economy-wide profit sharing may also improve worker's outside income opportunities, and this strengthens the union's hand in bargaining and tend to raise wages. It turns out that equilibrium unemployment is reduced by profit sharing as long as the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital is less than one, whereas unemployment is increased if the elasticity of substitution is greater than one.     

CATASTROPHE THEORY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

We use the approach of R. Thom's "Catastrophe Theory" to construct a generalization of Kaldor's 1940 trade cycle. The model allows for cyclic behavior which exhibits either rapid recoveries (recessions) or slow recoveries (depressions) .     

WAGE REDUCTION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND SPECIFIC HUMAN CAPITAL

This paper re-examines the specific human capital hypothesis concerning short-run employment variation to analyze the circumstances in which wage reductions and/or layoffs will occur. By relaxing the usual assumption of downward wage rigidity, we show that the specificity of training influences the attractiveness of wage reduction compared to job separation. The choice of adjustments is analyzed and implications are drawn concerning the impact of the level of specific skill and of other factors on the choice and on the magnitude of such wage reductions as occur. These implications are tested with data on the Seattle recession of 1970-72.     

ENTRY AND EXIT,PRODUCT VARIETY,AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

We study the stochastic behavior of a dynamic general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition. Each seller sells his product in the consumption goods as well as the investment goods market and has market power in both. Consumers derive utility from a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) aggregate of all the consumption goods and augment their capital stock by a CES aggregate of all the investment goods. We analyze the equilibrium of this economy allowing for an endogenous determination of the number of firms and therefore of products. The principal effect we wish to highlight is the endogenous propagation and magnification of technology and preference disturbances through product space variations. (JEL E32, D43, L16)     

GENERAL WAGE ESCALATOR CLAUSES AND THE INFLATION UNEMPLOYMENT TRADE OFF

The purpose of this paper is to determine empirically the effect of general wage escalation, which is practiced in Israel, on the inflation unemployment trade off. Wage escalation is introduced by including a cost of living allowance variable in the wage equation which turns out to be very significant. It makes the long run Phillips Trade off relation much more inflationary, but does not obliterate it. A comparison with a wage price block for the U.S. suggests that the long run trade off is more inflationary in Israel and that wage indexation is one of the reasons for this bias.     

INSTITUTIONS,HOUSEHOLD CREDIT COMPOSITION,AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

We show that the negative effect of household credit growth on subsequent economic growth documented in the recent literature is not the same across countries. The effect is stronger in countries with weak institutions where the fraction of consumer credit in total household credit is greater. That is an important nuance as consumer credit is a sizable part of household credit in many emerging markets and its rapid buildup should be observed with the same caution as a rapid buildup in housing credit. (JEL G21, E32, E44)     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF MINIMUM WAGE LEGISLATION

Two questions are addressed in this paper. (A) Why do labor unions and certain employer organizations respectively promote and impede minimum wage legislation? (B) Do these groups have significant impacts on minimum wages? Question (A) is examined in the context of models that identify the economic self-interest of unionized skilled workers and capitalists in legal wage floors. Question (B) is approached by a median legislator utility maximization model that leads to Tobit estimation of the relationship between state minimum wage rates and measures of statewide organized labor and capital and average hourly earnings.     

MOONLIGHTING OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we examine the cyclicality of moonlighting by gender. We estimate a random-effects Tobit model of moonlighting among working men and women and find that while male moonlighting behavior does not fluctuate significantly with the business cycle, female moonlighting does. The cyclicality of female moonlighting has, nonetheless, varied over the course of the past 35 yr. Female moonlighting seemed to behave countercyclically during much of the 1980s and early 1990s, confirming the popular media belief that moonlighting is more likely to occur during periods of economic distress. Yet, this countercyclical behavior disappears during the 1993–1999 period to become procyclical by the early twentieth century. The recent procyclicality of female moonlighting supports the idea that female workers respond to a need for just-in-time employment following the economic upturn of the mid- to late 1990s. ( JEL J2, E32)     

SKILLED‐UNSKILLED WAGE INEQUALITY AND URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT

The impact of trade liberalization on the labor market in the North has drawn tremendous attention in the face of the growing skilled‐unskilled wage gap but in the South it has been somewhat neglected. One of the key structural differences between the North and the South is that the South experiences a pronounced rural‐urban migration in the presence of urban unemployment. We introduce this feature in the structure of a simple general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of trade liberalization and fragmentation on employment and the skilled‐unskilled wage differential in the South. In particular, we show that while fragmentation necessarily improves the unskilled wage and the skilled wage, more lucrative global opportunities for the skilled final product, in the absence of fragmentation, can reduce the rural wage and increase urban unemployment. The effect of fragmentation, ceteris paribus, on the skilled‐unskilled wage gap is sensitive to the degree of substitutability between land and unskilled labor. As such, fragmentation can magnify the increase in the skilled‐unskilled wage gap resulting from an improvement in the terms of trade. It is also shown that a technological progress in the intermediate goods sector increases the skilled‐unskilled wage gap and raises urban unemployment. (JEL F1, O1, F11, F12)     

BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS WITH THE DIVISION OF PERMANENT AND TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT

In the mainstream real business cycle (RBC) model, labor can be viewed as temporary employment since the firm's demand for labor behaves directly in response to stochastic productivity shocks in each period. This paper provides a tractable way of analyzing fluctuations in permanent and temporary employment over the business cycle, as well as the underlying driving forces. This inclusion of heterogeneity helps reconcile the RBC model with the U.S. data given that temporary employees in general only account for a small proportion of total private‐sector employment (about 2%–3%). We draw an explicit division between permanent and temporary employment and resort to this separation to account for stylized facts that characterize a two‐tier labor market. In particular, with regard to the U.S. labor market, our benchmark model can well explain the motivating facts: (1) temporary employment is much more volatile than permanent employment, (2) the share of temporary employment (the ratio of temporary to aggregate employment) exhibits strong pro‐cyclicality, (3) permanent employment lags by two quarters on average, and (4) the correlation between temporary employment and output is stronger than that involving the permanent counterpart. The quantitative analysis suggests that our proposed channels explain the main facts well and the model further provides plausible reasoning for a firm's labor hoarding. (JEL E24, E32)     

PARETO IMPROVING MINIMUM WAGE LAWS

By increasing the expected wage in low skill jobs, a minimum wage law can reduce the incentive for low skill workers to imitate high skill workers in the signalling process. The gain from reduced investment in the signal can more than offset the loss from unemployment among low skill workers so that total output increases. Moreover, with an appropriate poll tax on workers to compensate owners of capital, the law can make all workers and owners of capital better off.     

INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND WORLD BUSINESS CYCLE

Understanding international transmission mechanism that generates the world business cycle is of immense interest. In this paper, we compile a rich global dataset and utilize a trade‐linked structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a relatively realistic identification scheme to construct a worldwide dynamic interdependency system. Empirical results indicate that the trade‐linked SVAR system can largely capture the common dynamic properties of national business cycle fluctuations, providing a meaningful transmission foundation to the world business cycle derived from dynamic factor models. Based on the worldwide trade‐linked SVAR system, we further shed light on three crucial topics in international economics. The findings and methods in this paper help to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of recent trade dispute between world major economies. (JEL F41, F44, O19)     

THE MONTE CARLO CYCLE IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY

NBER business"cycle" reference dates and aggregate economic time series are examined for evidence of regular cyclic behavior. A simple contingency table test is used on the reference dates, and aggregate series are fit with a second-order autoregression. The results are negative. Apparently the business "cycle" is an optical illusion or, as Irving Fisher called it, a "Monte Carlo cycle." These are the cycles superstitious gamblers believe govern their luck.