国际权力基础与伊拉克战争

本文考察国际权力在不同历史时期的基础及其变化,并提出,各国围绕国际权力竞争的背后是各国围绕国际权力基础的竞争,国际权力基础随着时代不断发生变迁。作为国际政治的一个重要变量,国际权力基础反映出国际政治单位之间所享有的国际权力差异。自威斯特伐利亚条约以来,国际社会见证了数次国际权力基础变化。在第二次世界大战以前,国际权力的基础是常规武器水平;冷战期间核武器成为了新的基础;冷战结束后,各国之间的竞争围绕着综合国力展开;伊拉克战争爆发以后,国际权力基础又变迁为国家独立行动能力。     

三极化稳定——中、美、俄之间未来的核关系

冷战的结束和苏联的解体带来了两极化核平衡的结束,也带来了国际政治中东西方划分的结束。继两极之后将出现什么样的情况呢?多极化是一种可能性,权力和核武器分散到欧洲、亚洲以及中东的多个权力中心,单极化则是另一种可能性,美国与其他大小不等的国家之间权力差异的鸿沟日趋扩大,第三种可能性是三极化,美国和前苏联之间为扩大影响和核安全所进行的竞争,被美国、俄罗斯与中国之间三方参加的竞争所替代。     

复杂的中间地带：海湾阿拉伯国家在网络安全规范之争中的立场与动因

随着大国战略竞争加剧和全球政治多极化发展,海湾阿拉伯国家在全球网络安全治理格局中的地位逐渐不容忽视。本文考察了六个海湾阿拉伯国家在国际网络安全规范之争中的定位及其网络安全治理实践,认为海湾阿拉伯国家选择了一条符合中间地带利益的网络安全治理道路。在国际网络安全治理平台,海湾阿拉伯国家呈现出介于网络大国之间的混合性立场。在国内层面,海湾阿拉伯各国的制度框架为本国国家权力的行使保留了较大灵活性;在区域层面,非正式合作和次国家层面的对话协调机制正成为海湾阿拉伯国家区域网络安全合作的主要形式。对政治、文化和社会安全的考虑,地区竞争和冲突新形式的出现,经济和数字化转型催生的安全漏洞及对网络安全的巨大需求,以及国际层面的联盟关系及其变化,是影响海湾阿拉伯国家在国际网络安全规范之争中立场的重要因素。     

多维理论视域中的能源政治与安全观

关于国际能源政治及其安全的各派理论观点虽视角各异,但其相互间实际上是互为交叉和影响,并日益呈现出共同特征.随着冷战后世界经济全球化进程的加速,各国在能源领域的相互依存日渐加强,既竞争又协调成为国际能源政治的主流.由此各方越来越重视能源领域的国际合作及其国际机制的建设,主张通过国际合作与协调来实现能源安全,将维护能源安全与实现经济和社会的可持续发展、与国家的对外政治和经济关系紧密联系起来.     

沙特与伊朗在地区博弈中的代理人战略

近年来,沙特与伊朗在中东地区经常利用代理人战略开展竞争和博弈,具体表现为支持内战国家的代理人来改变战争进程与结果、扶植代理人进行权力竞争、利用代理人进行外交角力等。沙伊之间运用代理人进行博弈,既是两国的地缘政治对抗、教派纷争等结构性矛盾使然,也是由于代理方本身需借助外部力量实现政治与宗教目的。不过,受直接冲突与战争高成本及外部环境的约束,两国之间的博弈不会走向正面军事冲突。截至目前,沙伊的代理人战略加剧了中东政治生态的恶化,加快了地区阵营化、冷战化格局的演进,加深了中东国家政治的对抗性烈度。可以预见,施动方、代理方以及域内外大国关系的演绎将会对沙伊的代理人战略走向产生重大影响。     

联合国改革缘何举步维艰

冷战结束后,联合国的改革问题一直是国际社会关注的焦点。2005年3月,联合国秘书长安南正式向联大提交了联合国改革报告,呼吁各国一揽子接受有关发展、安全、人权和联合国机构改革等方面的改革建议,并希望在9月联合国各成员国首脑峰会上对此进行表决。这样,一场围绕联合国安理会     

国际关系理论的发展——现实主义与自由主义之争

20世纪,人类经历了两次世界大战和长达四十年的冷战。残酷的现实引发了学者对国际政治的思考,催生了国际关系这门学科。自国际关系成为一门学科以来,学者们已经建立了或者正在建立各种各样的理论,来解释世界政治中纷繁复杂的变化。迄今为止,最有影响力的当属现实主义理论和自由主义理论。尤其是发生在上世纪80年代的这两个学派之间的论战,更是主导了整个国际关系理论发展的方向。     

论当代国际格局变化下的印度中东外交

冷战时期,印度对中东的外交政策,基本上奉行了支持巴勒斯坦解放组织、支持阿拉伯联盟和反对以色列的中东外交政策,但在冷战缓和时期也有些变化;冷战结束后,印度在试图维持与中东国家的传统关系基础上与以色列建交,在试图与西方大国的协同中谋取在中东的利益最大化.印度的中东外交受到多极化力量和单极化力量角逐的影响,但其中东外交的角色转变基本上围绕与美以加强合作,它属于介于西方与伊斯兰两种国际力量间的游移势力.     

变化中的世界石油体系与石油权力:兼论美国、沙特、阿美石油公司的三角关系

世界石油体系主要由消费国、产油国和国际石油公司三类行为体构成,三者构成了一种独特的三角关系,这是世界石油体系的结构性特征。世界石油体系的核心是石油权力,石油权力可以划分为资源(供应)权力、市场(需求)权力、输送(通道)权力、定价权力、技术与管理权力、金融权力等六种子权力。凌驾于石油权力之上的是国家安全(包括能源安全)。当代世界石油体系的变迁主要围绕国家安全及上述六种权力的争夺展开。三类行为体均有影响世界石油市场的关键手段,其在不同阶段拥有权力的大小决定了三角关系的结构性变化,典型案例便是当代美国、沙特和阿美石油公司之间的结构性石油权力及其转换。而近年来的美国"页岩革命"、沙特与俄罗斯牵头形成的"欧佩克+"、石油制裁与反制裁等事件,预示着世界石油体系和石油权力的新一轮变化。     

二战后的国际形象建构

二战以后世界各国都纷纷要求营造一个良好的国际形象,积极调整国家的对外关系,重塑国家的国际形象,进而影响整个国际关系体系。在国际形象的战略指导下,我们从历史的视角来挖掘二战后不同历史时期的国际形象,从而来深刻认知国际形象的不同定位。二战以后国际形象因受不同时期的政治、经济和外交等因素的影响而呈现不同的特色,贯穿于世界变化发展的始终,影响着国家的发展。特别是在二战结束后渴望和平独立的呼声日益高涨,世界各国人民亟需在和平独立的环境中生存,因此渴望和平独立构成当时的国际潮流。然而从40年代到冷战结束,又呈现了美苏超级大国两极争霸的局面,世界各国再度处于局势紧张状态,国际形象又以美苏争霸的形象为主流。20世纪90年代以来,"全球化"进程日益成为国际体系中最让人注意的亮点。在这种时代大背景下,世界各国为了生存和发展的需要,积极探索新出路,谋求新发展,适应新时代的潮流,主动推进国家的国际政治走向全球政治,这就构成了当时的国际新形象。塑造良好的国际形象对全球化发展具有重要的战略意义。     

Why Are So Many U.S. Families Adopting Internationally?

Abstract

This paper uses social exchange theory to explain the increase by which U.S. families are adopting internationally, compared to domestically. Benefits of adopting internationally appear associated with a preference for infants, confidential adoptions, race/ethnic similarity and shorter waits. Costs are related to generally higher expenses and a greater likelihood of developmental and other health risks among the children. While international adoptions can be expected to increase on this basis, trends may be slowed as a result of social context factors (for example, recent policies governing international adoptions) and greater awareness of inequity in power relations within the adoptive family triad. Implications for practice related to policy advocacy are discussed.     

国际贸易中间商、贸易交易方式与贸易监管制度改革

国际贸易中间商不仅为国际贸易学者所关注,而且也是一个主要的实践问题。从国际贸易中间商产生的角度出发,分析跨国公司与国际贸易中间商之间的关系,国际贸易中间商形成的贸易交易方式以及这种贸易交易方式下的贸易制度需求都是值得关注和研究的问题。     

The power and pay of international union officials

Secondary data are used to examine the relationship between the power of international union presidents and their pay. The analysis supported the hypotheses that (1) power and pay were positively related and (2) the relationship is more pronounced in unions that are larger and are less effective in bargaining as well as during periods characterized by conflict over the president’s role. While highlighting the political dimensions of union organizations, the data also support previous studies that found international union officers’ salaries to have a “rational” basis in the union’s bargaining effectiveness. I am indebted to Gabriella Belli for help with a number of statistical issues.     

International factors in the formation of refugee movements

The authors construct a theoretical framework for analyzing factors influencing international refugee movements. "On the basis of detailed case studies by the authors of the principal refugee flows generated in Asia, Africa, and Latin America from approximately 1960 to the present, it was found that international factors often intrude both directly and indirectly on the major types of social conflict that trigger refugee flows, and tend to exacerbate their effects. Refugees are also produced by conflicts that are manifestly international, but which are themselves often related to internal social conflict among the antagonists."     

Deutsch-polnisches Training: Persönliche und professionelle Erfahrungen mit Bikulturalität und Interkulturalität – Anspruch und Wirklichkeit

This report contains several experiences and authentic examples taken from highly professional German-Polish and Polish-German coaching groups. Accordingly, ideas are in part presented from a very personal point of view. Running “Intercultural activities” is very much praised in a world that becomes more and more globalized. But how do these activities work out in practice? The author’s goal is to explain the cultural differences in order for managers to be able to work effectively in international projects. The author illustrates her method and her goals by giving characteristic examples. She talks about demands as far as the personality of the coach is concerned, as well as about interferences within the coaching situation. A prevailing common culture in Europe does not (yet) exist which makes it even more important to talk about differences openly so that they can be understood and be overcome. Useful experiences are shared which shall help to build a ‘working’ trust level between representatives of different cultures. Cultural factors of power usage are described which show how power can be applied in different ways. The influence of language problems is also analyzed in detail. Finally, this paper shows that the most important is to keep an atmosphere based on cooperation: only when such an atmosphere is accepted as a natural daily routine can contacts among participants of different cultures be established as among equals and it is then possible to overcome the challenges related to differences of cultures.     

The insufficient imagery of top-down,bottom-up in global movements analysis

Scholars have shown various ways in which new types of transnational interdependence influence conflicts and resistance. Conventional conceptualization often depicts movements as emerging from the ‘bottom-up’ efforts of distinctive, individual collectives to challenge the ‘top-down’ hegemony of bureaucratic states, multinational corporations, and some international civil society organizations. But globalization scholars, and particularly those developing a framework of world society studies, place interactions among different levels of action and orientation at the center of conflict analysis and show how mobilization and change occurs across complex, interdependent relationships. In this article, I interrogate the different and often contradictory ways that dimensions of mobilization and social change are commonly denoted in this usage. I then explore alternative global theoretical frameworks that give greater explanatory power to the dynamic global–local interface. To move beyond the constraints of binary thinking in global movements analysis, I suggest that future scholarship clearly specify significant attributes of mobilization, identify how attributes vary and co-mingle, and locate social processes among a host of global–local relationships.     

改革国际货币体系,推进人民币国际化——2013“国际货币体系改革”研讨会实录

国际金融危机与国际货币体系的缺陷有关,尤其是与美元作为实际上的本位货币但在发行上又不受约束有关。国际货币体系改革涉及部分主权的让渡,应分析不同集团的需求,寻求最大公约数。在承认现状、继续维持美元为主导的多元化的国际货币体系的基础上,用SDR的价值将美元锚住,可以为现行的国际货币体系提供一个稳定的基础。人民币国际化有全球途径、区域途径、通过合作直接成为国际储备资产、直接成为大宗商品计价货币等多种路径。无论采用什么路径,都是人民币参与国际竞争的一个过程。     

Analogue crisis,digital renewal? Current dilemmas of peacebuilding

ABSTRACT

The international architecture of peacebuilding and statebuilding, with the United Nations’ efforts central among them, is currently responding to a shift from ‘analogue’ to ‘digital’ approaches in international relations. This is affecting intervention, peacebuilding and development. This article analyses the potential that these new digital forms of international relations offer for the reform of peacebuilding – namely, the enhancement of critical agency across networks and scales, the expansion of claims for rights and the mitigation of obstacles posed by sovereignty, locality and territoriality. The article also addresses the parallel limitations of digital technologies, as well as the risk of co-optation by historical and analogue power structures, existing modi operandi and agendas of the United Nations, and other international actors. We conclude that though aspects of emerging digital approaches to peacebuilding are promising, they cannot yet bypass or resolve older, analogue conflict dynamics revolving around the state, territorialism, and state formation.     

Contention and Social Movements in an International and Transnational Perspective: Denmark 1914 – 1995

Ever since the emergence of mass movements as a mode of political organization in the 19th century we have witnessed simultaneous waves of protest in different countries and the diffusion of social movements across nations. After a presentation of data, methods, and theory, this article endeavors to analyse the development of contentious politics in Denmark, 1914 –1995, as a function of the international distribution of power, international political and economic crises, and the diffusion of social movements. The important analytical implication is that social movements and contentious politics must not only be understood in the light of national factors, but the existence of international opportunity structures must also be considered.