Child Spacing in the Philippines: The Effect of Current Characteristics and Rural Development

In this study the effects of characteristics current at the beginning of the birth interval on the time elapsing before the next birth are examined. The child-spacing process is viewed as affected by time-varying and fixed characteristics of the community, household, and individual. In the model on which the empirical research is based sociological and economic antecedents are used. The study is based on data from two panels of the Bicol Multipurpose Survey collected in 1978 and 1983. These furnish detailed histories of pregnancy and contraception, together with an extensive set of socio-economic data. Detailed information on services and facilities available in each of the 100 sample communities is also available. Because of the large rural development programme introduced in various sub-areas of the Bicol region, substantial changes in the rural infrastructure and in availability of health and family planning facilities and services occurred between 1976 and 1980, the period on which the analysis is focused. Our results clearly show that current characteristics at the individual, household, and community levels have significant and interpretable effects on the lengths of birth intervals.     

The Effect of a First Born Child on Work and Childcare Time Allocation: Pre-post Analysis of Australian Couples

This paper uses Australian data from a national representative sample of Australian couples having their first child. Using data from before and after the birth of the child on a range of variables, including economic resources, gender attitudes, workplace flexibility, and availability of non-parental childcare, we first model the factors are associated with the decision to remain in work or not after the birth of the first child. The main finding here is that childbirth has a major impact on mothers’ paid work-time, whereas for fathers it has very little impact. Factors that are related to a mother’s decision to remain in work or not include the absolute (but not relative) pay of each parent, the father’s workplace flexibility, and paid parental leave available to the mother. We then model the factors that govern, for those mothers remaining in paid work, how much paid work they undertake. We find that changing employers is related to mothers’ work hours, as are absolute post-birth salaries, as is the relative pay of each partner. As with the decision to work or not, the availability of paid parental leave to the mother is significantly related to the amount of work-time for those mothers that do continue to work. Similarly, the use of external childcare is positively associated with maternal work hours. Finally, we model the factors that determine childcare time allocation and find that for neither parent do pre-birth economic resources significantly affect childcare time, once a decision about basic work patterns has been made. Gender role attitudes affect childcare time decisions, unlike work time decisions.     

Modern and traditional value orientations and fertility behavior: A social demographic study

Modern versus traditional value orientations based on the Kluckhohn and Strodtbeck schema are related to family size preferences and birth control effectiveness. Value orientations are viewed as mediating the relationship between socioeconomic status and the fertility behavior variables. Interviews with a probability sample of women in Lexington, Kentucky, provide the data for testing the hypothesized relationships. The results indicate that both value orientations and socioeconomic status are related to fertility behavior. The inference can be made that value orientations aid in interpreting the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility behavior but that other status-related variables are operating.     

Child Mortality in Beirut: Six Indirect Estimates Based on Data Collected at the Time of a Birth

Six indirect techniques for estimating child mortality were applied to information on survival status of all children ever born, provided by a sample of 1,252 women delivered at the Maternity Unit of the American University of Beirut Hospital. The results were compared, using as a reference the estimate derived from partial birth histories (ages of surviving children, ages at death of children who have died). Their dispersion is minimal for the probability of dying between birth and fifth birthday, estimated at 48 per thousand. For each mother, the ratio of the observed number of children who have died, to that expected given the lengths of exposure of the children to the risk of mortality, was used as a dependent variable in a multiple regression analysis. Educational level of mothers had a significant effect, but not occupational status of father, religion or consanguinuity.     

An economic analysis of pregnancy resolution in Virginia: specific as to race and residence

This study analyses an economic model of pregnancy resolution; that is, a model of the choice by a pregnant woman to abort her fetus or carry it to term. This analysis, using an analytical model derived from the household utility framework, adds to previous research by presenting race and residence specific estimates of how individual characteristics, history of abortion, and the community-based factors determine women's choices of giving birth vs. abortion. The main data for estimating the model were drawn from the 1984 vital statistics of all induced abortions and live births in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The major findings indicate that low parental education, high maternal age, previous early abortions, and the availability of abortion providers all significantly reduce the probability of choosing the live birth option. Married status and the availability of family planning clinics significantly increase the probability of the live birth option. The findings also suggest that women's choices between abortion and live birth vary substantially with race (white vs. black) and residential (urban vs. rural) location.I am very grateful to Professors Michael Grossman and Theodore Joyce at CUNY/NBER for their advice and comments on earlier version of this paper, to Professors William Hsiao at Harvard and Richard Ernst at USC for their supportive encouragement and insightful comments, and finally to two anonymous referees for their constructive suggestions in revising this analysis.     

Expectations of additional children by race,parity, and selected socio-economic characteristics,United States: 1967

This is a study of fertility expectations of wives in relation to selected demographic and social and economic characteristics. The data for this study were obtained from a special survey conducted in 1967 from a probability sample of 30,000 households. The analyzed data show that the number of children expected in the next five years is inversely related to parity. Because of the inverse relationship, the expectations of additional children tend to be inversely related to age at marriage of wife, number of years married, and similar temporal variables. The data show also that there exists an inverse relationship between expectations of additional children and selected socio-economic characteristics, such as education of wife, occupation, and income of husband.     

Changes in cohort wealth over a generation

Empirical computation of expected wealth is hampered by two problems: mortality risks vary in the population and over time; and observation of net estates for most cohorts is truncated, as some individuals in a cohort survive the calendar date on which observation is terminated. These two problems are solved in estimating cohort wealth for a sample of Wisconsin taxpayers. Hazard rate models of differential occupational mortality risks were estimated from the occupational information on the tax records. Values of net estate are simulated for individuals in each birth cohort who survived. Survivors have characteristics that imply greater wealth holdings than the deceased in every birth year covered by the study (1890-1924). Because of this, estimates of wealth-age relationships produced by the estate multiplier method for any given year will have a serious downward bias. Longitudinal data imply that dissaving does not occur after age 65.     

基于空间数据的出生性别比偏高影响因素研究

以出生性别比升高机理为基础,应用空间计量技术分析2000年份地市横截面数据和地理空间数据,实证研究各因素对出生性别比偏高的影响。结果表明:社会经济文化因素通过影响生育决策和生育行为进而引起出生性别比偏高,影响出生性别比升高的各因素存在空间相互作用,其空间自相关属于高高-低低类型;传统文化、公共政策、城镇化水平以及良好的社会法制环境将抑制出生性别比升高;经济发展水平、家庭收入、受教育程度和医疗发展水平将促使出生性别比升高;生育政策对出生性别比升高的影响不具有统计显著性。     

A new technique for measuring preferences in demographic studies

In this article, we introduce an alternative technique to the single-sentence question for measuring preferences for number of children, age at marriage, length of first birth interval, length of employment, and years of schooling. This new measurement procedure utilizes a graphic scale rather than verbal responses, and it places family size decisions within the context of several other major life cycle decisions. One month reliability data for the measurement technique were obtained from a sample of 107 school children. Reliability results are compared to data from a previous study of teenagers.     

SNAP Benefits and Pregnancy-Related Emergency Room Visits

Pregnant women are likely to be sensitive to daily fluctuations in nutritional intake. To see if income constraints at the end of the month limit food consumption and trigger health problems, we examine how the date that benefits are issued for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) changes the probability that a woman will go to the Emergency Room (ER) for pregnancy-related conditions using administrative data from SNAP and Medicaid from Missouri for 2010–2013. SNAP benefits in Missouri are distributed from the 1st through the 22nd day of the month based on the birth month and the first letter of the last name of the head of the household, making timing of SNAP issuance exogenous. We estimate probit models of the calendar month and SNAP benefit month on the probability of a pregnancy-related ER visit for women age 17–45, or the sample at risk of being pregnant. We also examine the relationship between SNAP benefit levels and ER visits. We found that women who received SNAP benefits in the second or third week of the calendar month were less likely to receive pregnancy-related care through the ER in the week following benefit receipt. Results suggest that SNAP benefits might be related to patterns of pregnancy-related medical care accessed through the ER. Since SNAP issuance date is within state control in the United States, states may want to consider the health effects of their choice.     

The temporal relationship of marriage,conception, and birth in Massachusetts

An investigation into the timing of first births in relationship to the date of marriage in Massachusetts confirmed the finding of previous national and local birth timing studies that first births likely to have been conceived before the marriage of their parents constitute a substantial proportion of all first births. The differential frequency of premaritally conceived births among various subgroups appeared to account for the variation noted in the overall timing patterns of first births after marriage. Data were gathered through linkage of certificates of birth of a sample of legitimate first children with the marriage record of their parents. Analysis of the marriage-first birth interval by maternal age and race, type of marriage ceremony, and occupation of the bride and groom were conducted and comparisons with previously published data were made. Separate consideration was given to the frequency and characteristics of those births likely to be premaritally conceived and those likely to have been conceived after the wedding.     

Care Arrangement Decisions for Frail Older Women: Quantitative and Qualitative Perspectives

ABSTRACT

This study uses both quantitative and qualitative methods to investigate how a range of care arrangement decisions for frail older unmarried women are made. Quantitative data from the 1989 National Long-Term Care Survey provides information concerning factors that predict the probability of five categories of care arrangements, including self only care, nursing home care, informal only care, formal only care, and a mix of formal and informal care. Qualitative interview data provides information on what occurs during care arrangement decision-making processes. Results are combined to explain the choice of care arrangements for a small sample of chronically disabled older unmarried women. Results show that need factors, such as age and disability, are strong predictors of the need for assistance. Family members played a central role in determining care arrangements and often helped an older woman to avoid an unwanted care arrangement. The use of a broad measure of impairment resulted in high levels of disability for the sample participants. Both disability status and care arrangements were transitory in nature.     

Care arrangement decisions for frail older women: quantitative and qualitative perspectives

This study uses both quantitative and qualitative methods to investigate how a range of care arrangement decisions for frail older unmarried women are made. Quantitative data from the 1989 National Long-Term Care Survey provides information concerning factors that predict the probability of five categories of care arrangements, including self only care, nursing home care, informal only care, formal only care, and a mix of formal and informal care. Qualitative interview data provides information on what occurs during care arrangement decision-making processes. Results are combined to explain the choice of care arrangements for a small sample of chronically disabled older unmarried women. Results show that need factors, such as age and disability, are strong predictors of the need for assistance. Family members played a central role in determining care arrangements and often helped an older woman to avoid an unwanted care arrangement. The use of a broad measure of impairment resulted in high levels of disability for the sample participants. Both disability status and care arrangements were transitory in nature.     

Birth Intervals and Health in Adulthood: A Comparison of Siblings Using Swedish Register Data

A growing body of research has examined whether birth intervals influence perinatal outcomes and child health as well as long-term educational and socioeconomic outcomes. To date, however, very little research has examined whether birth spacing influences long-term health. We use contemporary Swedish population register data to examine the relationship between birth-to-birth intervals and a variety of health outcomes in adulthood: for men, height, physical fitness, and the probability of falling into different body mass index categories; and for men and women, mortality. In models that do not adjust carefully for family background, we find that short and long birth intervals are clearly associated with height, physical fitness, being overweight or obese, and mortality. However, after carefully adjusting for family background using a within-family sibling comparison design, we find that birth spacing is generally not associated with long-term health, although we find that men born after very long birth intervals have a higher probability of being overweight or obese in early adulthood. Overall, we conclude that birth intervals have little independent effect on long-term health outcomes.     

Demographic implications of the New United States certificates

To assist in developing uniform reporting of vital events among the fifty states, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, the United States government prepares standard certificates of birth, fetal death, death, marriage, and divorce. These model forms are revised, with the assistance of the states, approximately every ten years. Revisions are now being prepared by the National Center for Health Statistics which will become effective beginning January 1, 1968. Important new source material for demography will be introduced.Most changes will appear in the Standard Certificate of Live Birth and in the Standard Certificate of Fetal Death. An item on education of father and mother will provide detailed national data on education and fertility. The date of the last live birth to the mother and the date of the last fetal death will provide information on previous pregnancy outcome and on child-spacing. The recording of state file numbers for mates born alive and dead in the same delivery will make it easier to match live birth and fetal death certificates for the preparation of detailed tabulations on multiple births. Several new items related to maternal and child health have also been added. No significent changes were planned for the Standard Certificate of Death.The Standard Certificate of Marriage will include as new items the education of the bride and groom, the date on which the last marriage, if any, ended, and specification of the officiant as a religious or civil official. The Standard Certificate of Divorce or Annulment will obtain information on the education of husband and wife, the approximate date on which the couple separated, the mode of dissolution of the previous marriage, and the total number of living children. It is anticipated that most of the new items will be included in the certificates of all the states. The National Center for Health Statistics will provide detailed tabulations related to these items, beginning with data year 1968.Demographers are making an increased use of vital records and at the same time are extending their contacts with state health departments; in some states collaborative projects have been undertaken. Because of the importance of the source documents, which in some cases have not been exploited fully, demographers should increase their contact with the state vital statistics offices which develop, collect, and process the records. By indicating an interest in vital registration and by making their research needs known, demographers can encourage the acceptance of new concepts and collaborate in the improvement of vital records for demographic research purposes.     

出生缺陷疾病经济负担估算的人口学模型构建

在分析出生缺陷疾病的经济负担时,由于疾病的特殊性(如发病早、可能持续终身、早期死亡比较常见、二胎补偿等),需要注意与以往估算一般疾病经济负担模型不同的几个问题。主要有:相对经济负担和绝对经济负担的区别、估算起始点的确定、参照人群的选择。综合特点和问题,构建出生缺陷疾病经济负担估算的人口学模型,利用生命表原理,考虑了相对一般人群的经济负担、估算起始点提前至胚胎期、考虑人生中家庭的投入和产出等因素,为出生缺陷疾病的终身经济负担估算提供思路。     

Measuring sterility from incomplete birth histories

In this article, methods are presented for measuring the level and age pattern of sterility from incomplete birth histories, such as those that can be collected in demographic surveys of women who may not yet have reached the end of their reproductive span. The characteristics of the methods are examined in a simulation study that demonstrates that estimates based on information about fertility subsequent to a given age are more robust to variations in reproductive determinants, sample size, and sampling variation than the other measures, which include the frequently employed length of the open birth interval. In an illustrative analysis of World Fertility Survey data from sub-Saharan Africa, sterility was found to be high in Cameroon, intermediate in Lesotho and Sudan, and low in Ghana and Kenya relative to an English historical population.     

A probability model applicable to the study of inter-live birth intervals and random segments of the same

Abstract This paper deals with an analytical study of two types of birth intervals, viz. 'closed intervals' and 'open intervals' through the application of simple probability theory. The 'closed interval' stands for the time interval between two successive live births of a woman, and the 'open interval' denotes the interval between the date of last live birth and the date of survey for a married woman in the reproductive age group surveyed at a point of time. The study considers the 'closed interval' as the sum of independent random variables, each representing a particular component like post-partum amenorrhea, waiting time in the susceptible state, etc. Approximations to the patterns of distributions of these component random variables are made from the available data collected in fertility surveys at Gandhigram. The 'open interval' for any parity is studied separately for two different (mutually exclusive) categories of women, viz. those who have at least one more live birth at some time or other during their reproductive period and those who cease childbearing. In the first case the 'open interval' is considered as a random segment or partition of the corresponding 'closed interval'; in the second as a random segment of the interval between the date of birth of the last child and date at which the woman attains 45 years of age. The mean and variance of the 'open interval' is obtained separately in each case, and the moments of the 'open interval' distribution for women chosen at random from the population are obtained as an appropriate mixture of the two types.     

Labor force participation of working mothers and family formation: Some further evidence

This paper offers additional insight and evidence on the well-documented inverse relationship between female employment and fertility. Interviews with 388 working mothers from a probability sample in Robeson County, North Carolina, provide the data for testing the hypothesized relationships. Generally, the results indicate that lower fertility, lower desires and expectations, and earlier use of birth control are associated with work before the first birth and with employment of the longest duration. The timing of the first birth was not differentiated by variations in work experience. The results are conditional in that the relationships hold more for whites than for blacks or Indians.     

Some estimates of the reliability of survey data on family planning

An opportunity to estimate the reliability of survey data on family planning is afforded by a longitudinal study of fertility in metropolitan areas of the United States. A probability sample of mothers was interviewed six months after the birth of their second child. Data were collected on a number of pregnancies, use of contraception, methods used, and the planning status of each pregnancy, in addition to a wide variety of social and psychological characteristics. Three years after the first interview, the same women were interviewed again and identical questions were asked about the same pregnancies. This paper reports an analysis of the consistency of responses in the basic fertility and contraceptive histories. Given the simplicity of the pregnancy histories, the relatively sophisticated sample interviewed, and the intensive preparation of the research, the reliabilities of data on family planning estimated here are assumed to approximate to an upper limit for such data at the present stage of development of survey techniques. Some suggestions for possible future improvement are included.