In-Store Experimental Approach to Pricing and Consumer Behavior

This study assessed how, and to what extent, it is possible to use behavioral experimentation and relative sales analysis to study the effects of price on consumers' brand choices in the store environment. An in-store experiment was performed in four stores to investigate the effects of different prices of a target brand on consumers' relative buying behavior using an alternating treatment design with baseline. The intervention consisted of periodically reducing the target brand's price by 17–26%. Price reductions generally had none or minor effects. However, data for one store showed lower relative sales for the price reduction condition. These are surprising results and they underline the need to examine all of the marketing mix factors, not only price.     

不同交叉销售结构情境下竞争供应链运营决策研究

不同的销售主体可以销售不同的产品数量。考虑竞争供应链系统由两个制造商和两个零售商组成,下游每个零售商都可以选择垂直上游制造商或者对方的制造商进行产品订购,构建了排他性、单交叉和双交叉三种销售模型,研究不同的竞争强度如何影响零售商订货策略、制造商批发价格和系统绩效。结果表明,当纵向竞争强度不变时,排他性销售下供应链的系统利润随着横向竞争强度的增大而逐渐减小,单交叉销售下供应链的系统利润随着横向竞争强度的增大而逐渐增大。而双交叉销售下供应链的系统利润的变化不仅与横向竞争有关,而且也与纵向竞争相关。     

Interactive Multiple Objective Decision Support for Sales Force Sizing and Deployment*

An interactive decision aid is introduced for the deployment of two sales resources: salespeople and sales support staff. The aid consists of a normative sales resource allocation model with five objectives and an interactive multiple objective programming solution procedure. The specific decision problem addressed involves the assignment of salespeople and sales support people to customer accounts and the allocation of the time they spend on these accounts. The authors contribute to the existing sales resource modeling literature by dealing with the deployment of two sales resources and interactively solving this problem with respect to five short-run and long-run objectives of the firm. This approach differs from existing sales force modeling efforts in which the solution is found noninteractively by optimizing a single sales resource model with respect to a single objective, often short-run sales. An application of the decision aid to the deployment problem of an industrial sales force manager is presented. Furthermore, useful extensions of the basic sales resource allocation model are discussed.     

Universal equation for the relative change in profit of manufacturing company

In contemporary conditions of the company's business operations, where high dynamics of costs, sales volume and change of production programme is present, it is of crucial importance to investigate their effects on the change of profit. Starting from cost–volume–profit equation, the aim is to arrive at a universal equation that will simultaneously measure a relative change in profit for a number of products, not only under the influence of change in sales volume but also of other relevant variables, such as sales price, fixed and variable costs. The basic hypothesis is that it is possible to establish in a form of universal equation the dependence between the change in profit and change in influential variables. In this investigation, first it was observed the partial influence of some variables on the change in profit and their dependence was determined for a single product, and then for more than one product. Finally, by summing up all those effects, a universal equation of profit change was obtained. The derived universal equation for the relative change in profit along with simultaneous effects of several variables makes possible for the company management to more simply determine the profit for diverse conditions of business operations. The universal equation for the relative change in profit was applied in one company and the results obtained confirm its significance.     

What Happens When Manufacturers Perform The Retailing Functions?

This study examines the effects of a relatively new channel structure on prices and sales in a large department store, which in recent years has switched the management of many of its product categories from a traditional retailer‐managed system to a manufacturer‐managed system. We find that the change caused overall retail prices to decrease. However, there was significant heterogeneity in the response across brands. In the cell phone category, brands with high market shares and inelastic demand did not change prices. In the watch category, the retail prices of relatively low‐end brands decreased while the prices of premium brands increased substantially after the switch. In addition to sales increases due to lower prices, we find that the channel structure change further caused sales to increase by 9–10% in the cell phone category and by 11–17% in the watch category. These results are consistent with previous theoretical predictions. We believe that our results provide important academic and managerial implications due to the increasing prevalence of manufacturer‐managed systems in the retail industry.     

THE APPLICATION OF A DYNAMIC FORECASTING MODEL WITH INVENTORY CONTROL PROPERTIES

This article summarizes the application of a forecasting model. Forecasts are made of monthly sales of products which do not change in style on an annual basis. The model is an exponential smoothing model. Adjustments of the parameters of the model are made whenever the average forecast error over the previous four periods is too large to be explained solely by unassignable causes. The efficiency gained in using the model is measured by the ratio of the standard deviation of the forecast errors to the standard deviation of sales. If this ratio is less than one, then the safety stock level that is carried for a given product can be reduced if sales are forecasted with the model and the standard deviation of the forecast errors is used to determine the safety stock level. The net effect is the reduction in the cost of carrying safety stocks. The results of the proposed model are also compared to a similar set of results generated from a basic, exponential model.     

Profitability improvement using quantitative techniques: the case of a paper mill

This paper discusses the attempts made to improve the profitability of a paper mill. The preliminary analysis on the company's management practices revealed that current sales forecasting, production and sales planning methods and inventory policies are potential areas for profitability improvement. Appropriate Box-Jenkins models were selected for sales forecasting. A linear programming model is developed to obtain an optimal production and sales plan. Inventory policies of class “A” items are revised to cut down ordering and holding costs. An analysis is made to decide on the optimal operating strategy when demand is less than production capacity. The total anticipated annual savings as a result of the study are very significant.     

A SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN INVENTORIES AND SALES OF MERCHANT WHOLESALERS

In this study cross-spectral methods are used to test the hypothesis that inventory investment leads sales of merchant wholesalers through the short-term, seasonal frequencies, but sales lead inventories through the long-term, cyclical frequencies. An intuitive explanation and a time-domain, generating model for the reversal phenomenon are given.     

基于Vidale-Wolfe模型的多市场广告预算分配决策模型

广告决策问题很长时间以来都是营销经理和学者们关注的热点。随着社会经济发展,越来越多的企业面对多个市场。如何在多个市场、广告总预算固定的状况下,合理分配各个市场广告预算以收到最优广告效果,是一个企业关心的较为重要的问题。经过比较,选择Vidale-Wolfe模型作为广告反应模型,在此基础上建立了多市场广告预算分配决策模型。考虑到一些营销策略对某些市场有特殊销售速率要求,该模型分为无特殊销售速率维持要求的多市场广告预算分配决策模型和有特殊销售速率维持要求的多市场广告预算分配决策模型两类,后者探讨了销售速率变化与达到指定销售速率两种要求下的广告预算最优分配问题,构建了优化模型,提出了模型参数取值与模型求解方法,最后给出了一个算例。     

节能信息曝光度对绿色消费行为影响的实证分析——来自电商数据平台大规模文本数据的判据

随着中国绿色消费群体快速增长,绿色消费在拉动消费升级的同时体现出巨大的环境价值,节能信息曝光度对绿色消费行为的影响也引起学者关注。本文将数据驱动与模型驱动方法相结合,采用自然语言处理技术构建节能信息曝光度指标,采用倾向得分匹配与分位数回归对我国电商平台5,889种节能家电消费数据与评论数据进行实证研究。结果发现,我国现阶段电商平台整体节能信息曝光度不高,节能信息曝光度对节能家电销量的边际效应呈现单调上升趋势,信息冗余拐点尚未出现;同时,节能信息曝光度对不同销量规模节能家电产品的影响呈倒"U"型变化,其对中等销售规模的节能家电产品具有更大影响;最后,本文进一步验证了"平台效应"对于节能信息曝光度的调节作用,为基于大规模多源异构数据的绿色消费行为研究提供借鉴。     

A Two-Period Repeated Game Advertising Investment Model for Oligopolistic Markets with an Application to the Beer Industry*

This paper proposes a simple analytical model of advertising competition in oligopoly markets. The widely used log-log sales response function underlies the model specification. Advertising carryover effects are assumed to persist for one period following the period in which the expenditure occurs. Firms are assumed to be engaged in a repeated competitive game in which in every period advertising levels are set such that they maximize current and next period (i.e., two-period) profits. A Nash equilibrium solution is sought for the game. Compared with previous empirical studies of advertising competition in a game theoretic framework, the proposed model offers the following advantages: (1) oligopoly, not duopoly, markets are analyzed; (2) industry sales is allowed to vary over time as a function of advertising expenditures; (3) non-zero discount rates are used for the players. An empirical application is provided using data from the beer market on sales and advertising expenditures of Anheuser-Busch and Miller Brewing. Comparisons are provided with policies that ignore the dependence of next period profits on current advertising levels, reaction function strategies and spending levels obtained from a market share game. Extension of the model formulation to multiple marketing instruments is briefly discussed.     

Adaptive Tactical Pricing in Multi‐Agent Supply Chain Markets Using Economic Regimes

In today's complex and dynamic supply chain markets, information systems are essential for effective supply chain management. Complex decision making processes on strategic, tactical, and operational levels require substantial timely support in order to contribute to organizations' agility. Consequently, there is a need for sophisticated dynamic product pricing mechanisms that can adapt quickly to changing market conditions and competitors' strategies. We propose a two‐layered machine learning approach to compute tactical pricing decisions in real time. The first layer estimates prevailing economic conditions—economic regimes—identifying and predicting current and future market conditions. In the second layer, we train a neural network for each regime to estimate price distributions in real time using available information. The neural networks compute offer acceptance probabilities from a tactical perspective to meet desired sales quotas. We validate our approach in the trading agent competition for supply chain management. When competing against the world's leading agents, the performance of our system significantly improves compared to using only economic regimes to predict prices. Profits increase significantly even though the prices and sales volume do not change significantly. Instead, tactical pricing results in a more efficient sales strategy by reducing both finished goods and components inventory costs.     

Computer-aided formulation and optimal control of an integrated production system for competitive products

An integrated production, inventory and advertising system has been formulated based on control engineering principles. In this system, the customer's demand is satisfied from stock, which in turn is replenished from production facilities. But sales reflect the advertising effort, present as well as past. The past effort has been considered as a delay with an assumed delay period. The problem is formulated as a state and observation model. Out of this an augmented model of state and parameters is formed. The parameters describing the model are estimated from MAP discrete filter algorithm. It is shown that sales of product 1 or product 2 at (k + l)th period is effected by sales and advertising of product 1 or product 2 at the kth period, and also by sales and advertising of product 2 or product 1 at (k-θ)th period, where 6 is the delay.     

Self-Efficacy Beliefs and Sales Performance

Self-efficacy theory predicts that people will perform better when they believe they have the skills necessary for success. It also suggests, however, that believing in long-term rewards for success ("response-outcome expectations") does not correlate with adequate performance. This paper supports the generality of self-efficacy theory and provides evidence that self-efficacy beliefs predict insurance sales performance, whereas response-outcome expectations did not. A questionnaire was developed to measure self-efficacy beliefs and response-outcome expectations using 200 insurance sales representatives. Regression analyses were computed on a different sample of 97 insurance sales representatives using four separate dependent variables (calls-per-week; number of policies sold; sales revenue and a composite performance index on which actual sales commission was based). (1) These analyses established a correlation (but no causal relationship) between self-efficacy beliefs and sales performance. (2) The generality of self-efficacy theory in a business setting is suggested by the relationship between self-efficacy and objective measures of sales performance. (3) The relevance of these results, and the importance of integrating them into the practice of organizational behavior modification is discussed.     

考虑消费者退货的制造商入侵策略研究

在考虑消费者退货的情形下，通过构建包括一个制造商、一个零售商和消费者的二级供应链模型，研究了订货量决策以及制造商开通直销渠道的问题。分析提供退款保证和决策顺序对均衡结果以及制造商开通直销渠道的影响。研究发现：在单一渠道供应链中，提供退款保证提高销量，制造商和零售商利润以及消费者剩余；在不提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和零售商利润都随零售满意度递增；在提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和零售商利润都随零售满意度先递减后递增；当直销渠道的成本较高时，制造商将不开通直销渠道；提供退款保证有利于制造商开通直销渠道。在双渠道供应链中：在顺序决策情形下，直销量随零售满意度递增，然而在同时决策情形下，直销量却随零售满意度递减；提供退款保证虽然降低零售商利润但能够提高消费者剩余，零售商利润随直销成本递增，在提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和总利润随直销成本先递减后递增；当零售满意度较高，且直销成本也较高时，提供退款保证使制造商和零售商“双输”，当零售满意度较高，但直销成本较低时，提供退款保证使制造商和零售商达到(win-lose)。     

Investigating a long tail in retail vehicle sales

The concept of the long tail in demand distributions has generated significant research interest because of its potential importance for producers, distributors and retailers. Studies to date have focused on information goods sold through internet channels. Here we study long tail effects in vehicle sales sold through conventional car dealerships. The willingness of customers to compromise on, and/or wait for their requested vehicle specifications are identified as critical factors in vehicle purchases. An extensive empirically based simulation study is conducted to investigate these demand-side factors. The results show how the characteristics of the customer population affect the observed pattern in vehicle sales. The interaction effects of supply-side factors are also highlighted, in particular the effect of the replenishment policy used in the fulfillment system. The study also analyzes the distortion of the underlying demand signal in the sales distribution and the lead time and degree of compromise experienced by different customer populations. Significant managerial implications are highlighted, including the dangers of using the sales distribution as a definitive indicator of demand, the need for the order fulfillment process to align with the characteristics of the market, and the negative effects of focusing replenishment on a small subset of the most popular variants.     

员工动机对双元销售行为的影响研究:传统性的调节作用

营销人员经常面临现有产品销售和新产品销售之间的悖论,需要采用不同的方式来应对两种销售行为之间的冲突。本研究根据内外动机理论,探究不同动机影响下的销售行为,同时揭示国人的传统性对动机与产品销售两者关系的调节作用。本研究开发了中国情境下的双元销售行为量表,具有良好的信度（0.896）。实证结果表明：（1）内在动机与现有产品和新产品的双元销售行为之间呈现显著的正相关关系,外在动机与现有产品和新产品的双元销售行为呈不显著的正向关系。（2）中国传统性对营销人员的产品销售行为的直接影响作用非常显著,但传统性与内外动机的调节作用表现出多样性。（3）传统性与内在动机的交乘项对双元销售行为起不显著的负向调节作用。（4）传统性与外在动机的交乘项对现有产品销售起不显著的正向影响,对新产品销售起不显著的负向影响。     

Product Assortment and Price Competition under Multinomial Logit Demand

The role of assortment planning and pricing in shaping sales and profits of retailers is well documented and studied in monopolistic settings. However, such a role remains relatively unexplored in competitive environments. In this study, we study equilibrium behavior of competing retailers in two settings: (i) when prices are exogenously fixed, and retailers compete in assortments only; and (ii) when retailers compete jointly in assortment and prices. For this, we model consumer choice using a multinomial Logit, and assume that each retailer selects products from a predefined set, and faces a display constraint. We show that when the sets of products available to retailers do not overlap, there always exists one equilibrium that Pareto‐dominates all others, and that such an outcome can be reached through an iterative process of best responses. A direct corollary of our results is that competition leads a firm to offer a broader set of products compared to when it is operating as a monopolist, and to broader offerings in the market compared to a centralized planner. When some products are available to all retailers, that is, assortments might overlap, we show that display constraints drive equilibrium existence properties.     

Measurement of the effect of wool advertising

The paper reports a recent International Wool Secretariat (I.W.S.) study to measure the overall effect on sales of fibre advertising, based on annual data for eight major wool-consuming countries, collected from 1960 to 1970. An economic model of the fibre market is set up, and multiple linear regression is used to demonstrate a significant positive relationship between fibre sales and advertising. The effect of wool advertising is quantified, using the estimated regression coefficients, and its cost is compared with the estimated benefits to the wool industry in terms of increased revenue. Possible drawbacks of the approach described are considered, and aspects of the work requiring further study are also mentioned.     

基于公平关切线上与线下销售渠道演化博弈研究

公平关切影响决策行为,为分析公平关切对线上与线下销售渠道决策行为和竞争策略影响,构建线上与线下销售渠道博弈模型。基于博弈模型,对比分析四种公平关切情况对线上与线下决策变量和利润影响。进一步,为获得线上与线下稳定博弈结果,基于四种公平关切构建演化博弈模型,分析不同公平关切行为对销售渠道参与者决策行为影响。研究主要得到：一方采取公平关切时,会减少另一方收益;一方采取合作公平关切策略与另一方采取公平关切密切相关,也即当一方采取公平关切概率大于某一阀值时,另一方采取不公平关切;线上与线下经过长期演化博弈,演化稳定点为双方都采取公平关切。