谈经济增长方式转型

转变经济增长方式,首要的是深化改革。收入分配、腐败、消费比重过低、外贸不平衡等问题,需要通过深化改革加以解决。如果将双轨制改革遗留的弊病革除掉,形成一个有效的市场,经济增长会很快,产业也会继续升级;在产业升级的过程中,政府发挥作用,经济增长是可以持续的。我国经济持续高速增长的潜力很大,而且在经济增长的过程中,收入分配会持续改善,消费比重也会提高,投资比重则会下降,并且生态环境也会随着我国进入高收入国家行列、经济结构向服务业逐渐转型以及实施环境治理而不断改善。     

Economic Circumstances and Family Outcomes: A Review of the 1990s

This review documents the economic context within which American families lived in the 1990s. Despite nearly full employment and growing income and wealth for many Americans, problem areas included persistent racial gaps in economic well‐being, growing inequality, and declining wages for young men. Women showed stronger income growth than men in the decade, and 2‐earner households became increasingly associated with advantage. We review the consequences of these trends and of economic well‐being generally on 4 dimensions of family outcomes: family formation, divorce, marital quality, and child well‐being. Despite hypotheses suggesting that women's earnings might have different effects on family outcomes than men's earnings, generally the review supports the expectation that both men's and women's economic advantage is associated with more marriage, less divorce, more marital happiness, and greater child well‐being. Important issues regarding measurement, reciprocal relations between family structure and economic well‐being, and race and gender effects remain unresolved.     

Low Income Families' Utilization of the Federal "Safety Net": Individual and State-Level Predictors of TANF and Food Stamp Receipt

Two of the primary programs through which the federal government provides benefits to low income families are the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program and the Food Stamp program. However, many eligible low income families do not actually receive these benefits. We combined state-level policy data with rich data on a national sample of low income families to investigate family and state-level predictors of TANF and Food Stamp receipt. Our findings indicate: 1) families experiencing more economic hardship and health challenges are more likely to receive benefits, and 2) states' coverage is associated with families' receipt of TANF, but not Food Stamps. Implications for policy and research are discussed.     

Family Structure and Economic Success Across the Life Course

This paper examines the role that family structure plays in long-run economic outcomes across the life course. Using nearly 30 years of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we find that youths who grow up with both biological parents earn more income, work more hours each week and are more likely to be married themselves as adults, compared to children raised in single-parent families. Many of these differences continue to be statistically significant even after we control for family income experienced as an adolescent. In addition, the implied size of the income transfer that children growing up with a single parent to equalize lifetime economic outcomes would need—about $42,000—is markedly larger than the income transfers now available to families in USA.     

INEQUALITY AND GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES: EVIDENCE FROM A NEW STATE-LEVEL PANEL OF INCOME INEQUALITY MEASURES

This paper introduces a new comprehensive panel of annual state-level income inequality measures spanning the postwar period 1945–2004. For many states, the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after World War II, followed by a substantial increase in inequality during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper also presents an examination of the long-run relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Our findings indicate that the long-run relationship between inequality and growth is positive in nature and driven principally by the concentration of income in the upper end of the income distribution. ( JEL D31, O40)     

Family Structure and Children's Behavioral and Cognitive Outcomes

We used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine the effect of various family structures on behavioral and cognitive outcomes for children aged 7 to 10. We extended previous research by using a longitudinal definition of family structure and by exploring multiple mechanisms through which family structure may affect children in 2 outcome domains. We found that family income, mother's psychological functioning, and the quality of the home environment are particularly important for children's behavior, whereas family income and mother's aptitude have notable effects on children's cognitive test scores.     

State and Institutional Correlates of Reported Victimization and Consensual Sexual Activity in Juvenile Correctional Facilities

This article uses multi-level analysis to model the effects of both institutional and state characteristics on juvenile reported sexual behavior (both consensual and forced) in 118 juvenile correctional facilities across 36 states. Data are taken from the 2012 National Survey of Youth in Custody (NSYC). We examine three dimensions of reported sexual contact including: forced sexual contact between juveniles and other institutionalized juveniles; forced sexual contact between juveniles and staff; and alleged consensual contact between juveniles and staff. At the institutional-level, facility capacity is the most consistent significant predictor of reported sexual contact. Findings also indicate that state-level variables such as median income and state-level violent crime rates are significantly associated with some types of reported incidents. Privacy protections of the available data make it impossible to look at individual level factors; however, we suggest this as a future step in important research.     

UNRAVELING THE ECONOMIC PARADOX OF FEMALE-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS IN MEXICO: The Role of Family Networks

An extensive amount of research has shown that female-headed households are among the most disadvantaged in the United States. By contrast, households headed by single mothers in Mexico have median per capita income levels that are the same or higher than those headed by men and are no more likely to be living in poverty. These findings are surprising, given the many disadvantages that Mexican women face in the labor market and the added difficulties for single mothers of managing work and family life. We propose four explanations for the relatively high income levels of female-headed households in Mexico: (1) female heads' more advanced stage in the life course compared to male heads, (2) the greater financial support they receive from extended family members, (3) the international migration of the partners of female heads, and (4) a selection process whereby only women with sufficient income head their own households, while others move into households headed by someone else. Using a nationally representative survey we find that economic transfers from relatives living within the country and abroad, as well as a selection effect explain female-headed households' relatively high income.     

Migrant Remittances as a Source of Financing for Entrepreneurship

The aim of this research is to analyse the likelihood of small business ownership by households receiving remittances in Uzbekistan. As such, this research has important policy implications. Small businesses are crucial for job creation and economic growth. This research shows that households receiving remittances invest in family business only when this inflow is supplemented with sufficient income or savings. Therefore, financial constraints are of paramount importance for a small business and these could be especially hard to overcome in rural areas. The article also finds evidence that remittance senders direct their funds into special business projects.     

The relationship between inequality and labor market performance: Evidence from U.S. states

A central issue facing society is the equity/growth trade-off. Conventional economic theory suggests enhanced incentives associated with income inequality should increase growth, but at the expense of “fairness.” Recent theories challenge this notion by contending that inequality reduces human-capital investment and increases instability. Nevertheless, empirical evidence from U.S. states and across countries suggests an ambiguous relationship between inequality and income growth. Yet, at the state level, because inequality is related to many disamenities including crime, it can lead to lower utility and out-migration. The disamenities may produce compensating differentials that increase income. Given the inconsistencies regarding income, this study extends the literature by instead examining employment growth. Namely, long-run job growth is closely associated with net migration and any utility gains from migration. Thus, examining relative employment growth indicates whether inequality is associated with netutility gains from a vibrant economy or net-losses from disamenities. The results suggest that state-level inequality is associated with greater long-run job growth, or enhanced incentives appear to be the dominant factor.     

Income Inequality and Chronic Health Conditions: A Multilevel Analysis of the U.S. States

Recently, scholarly work has examined the effect of rising income inequality on health outcomes. However, this work is somewhat inconclusive. The mechanisms that could produce such an association are still being sorted out. Much of this work focuses on mortality outcomes with little attention to how this process operates for actual health conditions, including chronic health problems—arguably the main public health concerns of the developed world. In a series of multilevel binary logistic regression models using data from the 2005 and 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we examine the association between state-level income inequality, poverty, and social welfare measures on spending and policy to examine the association between these factors for three chronic health outcomes: diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease. We find that income inequality is conditionally positively related only to the diagnosis of diabetes and hypertension, and only in 2007. However, absolute poverty is related to the outcome across all three dependent variables. Certain social welfare measures attenuate the effects of both income inequality and absolute poverty, suggesting that some policies reduce this association.     

The Economic Returns of Immigrants’ Bonding and Bridging Social Capital: The Case of the Netherlands1

This paper aims at explaining to what extent social capital can help immigrants in the Netherlands make headway on the labor market. Two forms of social capital are identified. Bonding refers to a dense network with thick trust and is measured as the strength of family ties and trust in the family. Bridging implies a crosscutting network with thin trust and is measured as inter-ethnic contacts and outward orientation. It is examined to what extent bonding and bridging for immigrants in the Netherlands can be associated with a higher likelihood of employment and higher income. Results show that (1) bridging networks are positively associated with both employment and income; (2) bonding networks do not affect economic outcomes; and (3) levels of trust (neither thick nor thin) cannot explain economic outcomes.     

Nursing Home Deficiencies: An Exploratory Study of Interstate Variations in Regulatory Activity

This study examines nursing home regulatory activity by the states, assesses interstate variations in the volume and severity of nursing home deficiencies, and explores state-level factors that may account for these differences. Nursing home deficiency citation data over a 5-year period (2000–2004) were obtained from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. We examined interstate variations in regulatory activity and identified predictors of deficiency volume and severity at the state level (demographics, elected officials, industry characteristics, etc.) using the linear mixed model. Deficiency volume remained stable across the 50 states from 2000 to 2004, while deficiency severity decreased significantly. California had the highest volume of deficiencies per nursing home; Wisconsin had the lowest. New Hampshire had the highest percentage of severe deficiencies; California had the lowest. Higher deficiency volume was found in states with lower median household income, a lower proportion of residents aged 85 and older, and a Democratic legislature. Higher deficiency severity was associated with higher median household income and a higher proportion of Medicaid nursing home residents in a state. In contrast, greater state agency funding, higher state standards for nursing home administrators, and a Democratic and more professional legislature predicted lower deficiency severity. Nursing home residents in the United States receive unequal protection from abuse and neglect, and this is partly due to their state of residence. Interstate variations in deficiency volume and severity are due to a complex set of factors beyond nursing home quality.     

Use of Overseas Migrants' Remittances to the Extended Family for Business Investment: A Research Note1

Abstract The extended family's role in economic improvement has been extensively debated. From a modernization theory perspective, the extended family is viewed as an institutional obstacle to economic progress, while a social capital perspective suggests that it is an “engine” insofar as it permits individuals to activate networks and pool resources beyond their own. This paper examines, from these perspectives, extended family influences on the use of remittances from transnational migrants. The research asks whether family influences are positive or negative and are more or less important than other factors in determining business investments. The research draws on interviews with 170 family heads in a small community in Pakistan. The results show that relatively little remittance income from family members working in the Middle East was channeled into business investments, despite government incentives offered to migrant households. Most of the extended family measures used in the research are statistically unimportant in explaining level of business investment. There thus appears to be little support for either modernization theory or social capital arguments on the role of the extended family. Of the five operationalized extended family dimensions only one was related to business investment, and that positively. However, “family” considerations are not irrelevant. The best predictors of business investment were a preexisting level of business exposure/experience within the family and whether or not the family head was aware of business investment opportunities. The results raise questions about the need to reconceptualize family influences beyond the formal dimensions of extended family structure.     

Consumption Patterns of Chinese Children

In the ten-year period from 1990 to 1999, children's consumption has increased dramatically in proportion to family income. In 85% of urban families, children's average consumption is equal to one third or more of the family's income. Resources are being directed to children's food and dietary supplements, toys, travel, computers and other electronic equipment, and educational resources. Children perceive that they have a significant influence on the family's financial decision-making. Problems related to children's consumption include indulgence in unnecessary or harmful purchases, and conspicuous consumption that cannot be sustained by the family's income. While some child-focused spending is viewed as enriching development, other expenditures may harm the family's economic well-being and foster an overly materialistic outlook among children.     

Population Growth and the Distribution of Household Income: The Case of Brazil*

Special tabulations of the 1970 census of Brazil are used to estimate fertility and mortality rates by level of household income. Projections to the year 2000 indicate that the poor population will grow substantially faster than the rich population. Projections that simulate upward social mobility and declines in fertility and mortality levels do not alter this conclusion. Differential rates of natural increase by income strata are shown to contribute to an increase in the proportion of the population in the lower income strata, by the end of the century. Although these differentials could be reduced by a more equitable distribution of income, the style of development in Brazil has yielded only a small increase in the real income of the poor. Analysis of the income elasticity of fertility and mortality at different levels of household earnings suggest that this pattern of economic growth will further widen differences in the rate of natural increase by socioeconomic strata. The analysis of the demographic behavior of population subgroups questions the assumption that a lower rate of aggregate population growth in developing countries necessarily contributes to a more equitable distribution of income.     

Structural adjustment and family policy in Africa: Lessons from Sudan

The economic strategy pursued by a country profoundly influences the well-being of families. This article uses a social accounting model of the Sudanese economy to compare the effects of two alternative development strategies on growth, employment, and income distribution. The first strategy considered is a conventional growth-oriented strategy emphasizing irrigated, export-oriented agriculture and modern, capital-intensive industry; the second one is a traditional agriculture-led development (TALD) strategy focused on enhancing equity and improving family nutrition by expanding food production. The study's findings for Sudan demonstrate that there is no necessary trade-off between growth and equity. The TALD strategy fosters income growth for the most vulnerable families while simultaneously maximizing aggregate growth. It also holds the prospect of enhancing family equity and increasing access to traditional institutions that provide support to families.World BankHer research interests encompass issues related to poverty and inequality in developing countries. She received her Ph.D. from Cornell University.Before joining the World Bank, he was a visiting scholar at the University of Connecticut and acting head of the Department of Econometrics, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan. His research interests span development economics (growth, poverty, and equity), public finance, and economic transition in Eastern Europe. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Pittsburgh.     

Social change and the family: Comparative perspectives from the west,China, and South Asia

This paper examines the influence of social and economic change on family structure and relationships: How do such economic and social transformations as industrialization, urbanization, demographic change, the expansion of education, and the long-term growth of income influence the family? We take a comparative and historical approach, reviewing the experiences of three major sociocultural regions: the West, China, and South Asia. Many of the changes that have occurred in family life have been remarkably similar in the three settings—the separation of the workplace from the home, increased training of children in nonfamilial institutions, the development of living arrangements outside the family household, increased access of children to financial and other productive resources, and increased participation by children in the selection of a mate. While the similarities of family change in diverse cultural settings are striking, specific aspects of change have varied across settings because of significant pre-existing differences in family structure, residential patterns of marriage, autonomy of children, and the role of marriage within kinship systems.     

Why Has China’s Final Consumption Rate Declined Since 1978? Causes and Implications

Along with the rapid economic growth since 1978, there has been a remarkable trend in China, i.e. the steady decline of the share of final consumption expenditure in GDP that has made China one of economies with a low consumption rate in the world for a long time period. This phenomenon is concerned by economists since it is important for economic policies given the key role of consumption in the economic growth. This paper is to explore causes about decline in China’s final consumption rate since the economic reform. Evidence implies four causes: decrease of consumption propensity, adjustment of national income distribution structure, reform of urban housing system and slow growth of rural income.     

Income Volatility and Family Structure Patterns: Association with Stability and Change in Food Stamp Program Participation

Using the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study, this research investigated how income volatility and family structure patterns influence participation patterns of stability and change in Food Stamp Program participation among a sample of young families (n = 1,263). Multinomial logistic regression models suggested that families that experienced significant declines in income were more likely to persistently participate and initiate participation than to never participate. Furthermore, stably married families were more likely to never participate; while other stable family structures (cohabitating couples and singles) and transitional unions were associated with persistent participation compared to other participation patterns. Immigration status, health, multiple indicators of economic hardship, and participant access rates were also significant in predicting patterns of participation. Strategies to increase participation are discussed.