中国制造还具有劳动力成本优势吗

本文利用2002-2011年的制造业数据核算比较了中国与主要竞争国家的制造业单位劳动力成本,发现我国单位劳动力成本已经高于印尼、泰国和马来西亚等东南亚国家。具体地,东部地区单位劳动力成本2002年以后高于印尼,2007年超过我国中西部地区和泰国,2011年超过马来西亚;中西部地区单位劳动力成本2002年以后高于印尼,2009年超过泰国,2011年超过马来西亚,主要原因在于我国小时劳动力成本上升过快。因而,与印尼、泰国、马来西亚等东南亚国家相比,我国已不具有劳动力成本优势,再加上近年来我国人口红利的消失,中西部地区劳动力成本也已高于东南亚国家,因而,可以解释我国中西部地区为何没能及时接收东部地区的产业转移。     

Nineteenth and early twentieth century statistics: Some New Zealand connections

William Stanley Jevons published his statistical analysis of the climate of Australia and New Zealand, in 1858. Florence Nightingale advised Sir George Grey to collect statistics on M a ori health. Frederick William Frankland published a significant study of mortality in New Zealand, in 1882; and in 1890 George Hogben pioneered the application of statistics to seismology. These people all contributed to statistical knowledge in New Zealand, but were not New Zealanders. Earnest Rutherford, Leslie John Comrie and Alexander Craig Aitken were born and educated in New Zealand, but they worked mainly in the UK. In 1911 Rutherford made very effective use of statistics in discovering the nuclear structure of atoms; in 1937 Comrie pioneered the use of punched-card machinery for large-scale statistical analysis; and Aitken did very important work in mathematical statistics.     

Likelihood ratio-based distribution-free sequential change-point detection

Most existing control charts are for monitoring location or scale parameters, rather than any change in process distribution such as shift in shape. Goodness-of-fit (GOF) test can detect any change in distribution. This paper develops a new distribution-free control chart by integrating a powerful two-sample nonparametric likelihood ratio GOF test into the effective change-point model. Our proposed chart is easy in computation, convenient to use, and very efficient in detecting any change in process distribution, including shifts in location, scale, and shape. It is also robust in detecting various magnitudes of shifts and especially powerful in monitoring any distributional change involving a decrease in scale.     

Teacher shortages, teacher contracts and their effect on education in Africa

Summary.  To enhance primary enrolment rates, many African countries have launched large teacher recruitment programmes in recent years. Given tight budgetary constraints, teachers are no longer employed in civil service positions, but on the basis of (fixed term) contracts typically implying considerably lower salaries and a sharply reduced amount of professional training. We analyse the effect of this change on educational quality in Niger, Togo and Mali, on the basis of very informative data, which are comparable across these countries. We use a variety of estimation techniques, including a non-parametric estimation of quantile treatment effects. Our results demonstrate that contract teachers tend to reduce inequalities in student outcomes. Overall, the effects are positive in Mali, somewhat mixed in Togo and negative in Niger. This ordering is consistent with theoretical expectations related to the manner in which contract teacher programmes were implemented differently in each of the three countries under study.     

中国省际资本边际报酬估算

 资本边际报酬是决定投资和资本配置的重要因素。本文利用中国省际宏观数据,估算了1990-2006年中国各省的资本边际报酬。结果显示,我国各省、直辖市的资本边际报酬呈现出东部沿海地区较高,而中西部地区较低的状况。同时,部分较落后地区的资本边际报酬不断增加,甚至已经超过了大部分沿海省份,而沿海省份的资本边际报酬增长趋势不再明显,很多省份呈现持平甚至下降趋势。这一结果说明,我国固定资本投资极不平衡的现象与中国省际的资本边际报酬估算结果是一致的,但是根据资本边际报酬的变化趋势,该问题在今后或许可以得到缓解。     

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.     

A Review of Laura S. Young's Bookbinding & Conservation by Hand: A Working Guide

Abstract

University librarians in China face many of the same challenges related to serials management that confront librarians in the United States. The authors discuss the importance for librarians in the United States, especially those working with serials, to establish and build ties with librarians in other countries, such as China. Benefits of an exchange could include sharing information about best practices, exchange of serial materials, and working together on mutually advantageous projects. Acknowledging the growing interest in international library exchange programs, the authors relate their own institution's efforts to build international ties with Fudan University in Shanghai, China, and Shaanxi Normal University in Xi'an, China. In establishing these ties, the authors have traveled to China and interviewed librarians about serials acquisition, processing, and management.     

On correlation analysis of many‐to‐many observations: an alternative to Pearson's correlation coefficient and its application to an ecotoxicological study

Correlation studies are an important hypothesis‐generating and testing tool, and have a wide range of applications in many scientific fields. In ecological studies in particular, multiple environmental variables are often measured in an attempt to determine relationships between chemical, physical and biological factors. For example, one may wish to know whether and how soil properties correlate with plant physiology. Although correlation coefficients are widely used, their properties and limitations are often imperfectly understood. This is especially the case when one is interested in correlations between, say, trace element content in sediments and in marine organisms, where no one‐to‐one correspondence exists. We show that evaluating Pearson's correlation coefficient for either site‐specific means or composite samples results in biased estimates, and we propose an alternative estimator. We use simulation studies to demonstrate that our estimator generally has a much smaller bias and mean squared error. We further illustrate its use in a case study of the correlation between trace element content in sediments and in mussels in Lyttelton Harbour, New Zealand.     

The sensitivity of estimates of the change in population behaviour to realistic changes in bias in repeated surveys

Summary.  The first British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL) was conducted in 1990–1991 and the second in 1999–2001. When surveys are repeated, the changes in population parameters are of interest and are generally estimated from a comparison of the data between surveys. However, since all surveys may be subject to bias, such comparisons may partly reflect a change in bias. Typically limited external data are available to estimate the change in bias directly. However, one approach, which is often possible, is to define in each survey a sample of participants who are eligible for both surveys, and then to compare the reporting of selected events that occurred before the earlier survey time point. A difference in reporting suggests a change in overall survey bias between time points, although other explanations are possible. In NATSAL, changes in bias are likely to be similar for groups of sexual experiences. The grouping of experiences allows the information that is derived from the selected events to be incorporated into inference concerning population changes in other sexual experiences. We use generalized estimating equations, which incorporate weighting for differential probabilities of sampling and non-response in a relatively straightforward manner. The results, combined with estimates of the change in reporting, are used to derive minimum established population changes, based on NATSAL data. For some key population parameters, the change in reporting is seen to be consistent with a change in bias alone. Recommendations are made for the design of future surveys.     

中国劳动力调查的另一种四层次样本轮换方法

针对中国劳动力调查在部分省级单位内采用的四阶段抽样设计,构造了一种四级单元连续调查五次时的四层次样本轮换方法。该方法中,一级单元采用样本轮换模式40 in,二级单元采用样本轮换模式20 in,三级单元采用样本轮换模式10 in,四级单元采用样本轮换模式5 in。该方法保证了各级单元的样本量在轮换过程中不发生变化,同时还保证了四级单元在相邻两个季度和相邻两年的相同季度时均具有一定的拼配样本。     

得失与启示：我国统计学博士学位论文选题统计分析

 统计学博士是统计科研的中坚力量之一,其博士论文在一定程度上反映了当时我国统计学科研的热点和前沿,代表着我国统计教育的先进水平。本文通过对1987-2009年509篇统计学博士学位论文的选题及其研究内容进行统计,分析其变动规律和特点,总结选题的得失与启示,为今后科学选题以及进一步深入开展统计学术研究提供参考依据。     

中国非正规经济的就业效应研究———基于投入产出模型

随着我国经济由高速增长向高质量发展转型,非正规经济在促进我国劳动就业方面的作用不断凸显。本文通过编制2002-2017年包含非正规经济部门的投入产出序列表,采用投入产出模型,定量测度制造业、建筑业、批发零售住宿餐饮业、交通运输仓储邮政业、居民服务其他服务业等5个行业非正规部门发展对我国劳动就业的直接和间接效应。研究结果显示:①各行业非正规部门对就业的直接贡献均高于同期同行业的正规部门,而且以批发零售住宿餐饮业为主的第三产业非正规部门的就业效应高于以制造业、建筑业为主的第二产业非正规部门;②由于制造业和建筑业两个行业非正规部门均存在较强的后向关联效应,因而对就业的间接贡献高于以批发零售住宿餐饮业为代表的第三产业非正规部门;③各行业非正规部门产出变化对就业的间接贡献主要集中于农林牧渔业、制造业、批发零售住宿餐饮业、租赁和商务服务业等行业,在建筑业、交通运输仓储邮政业、居民服务其他服务业等行业的表现不容乐观; ④动态来看,样本期内5个行业非正规部门产出变化对就业的直接和间接贡献均呈下降态势。     

A residual-based test for autocorrelation in quantile regression models

Quantile regression (QR) models have been increasingly employed in many applied areas in economics. At the early stage, applications in the QR literature have usually used cross-sectional data, but the recent development has seen an increase in the use of QR in both time-series and panel data sets. However, testing for possible autocorrelation, especially in the context of time-series models, has received little attention. As a rule of thumb, one might attempt to apply the usual Breusch–Godfrey LM test to the residuals of a baseline QR. In this paper, we demonstrate analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations that such an application of the LM test can result in potentially large size distortions, especially in either low or high quantiles. We then propose a correct test (named the QF test) for autocorrelation in QR models, which does not suffer from size distortion. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the proposed test performs fairly well in finite samples, across either different quantiles or different underlying error distributions.     

《九章算术》中的统计学思想探究

《九章算术》是中国历史上最著名的一部数学经典,该书以应用问题求解的形式为成书体例,而这些问题基本都与社会经济有关,因此书中蕴涵了丰富的统计学思想。本文从统计范围和统计思想的角度对书中的统计知识进行了分析,探讨了书中诸如统计分组、抽样推断、线性回归分析及比例关系等统计理论,并据此对当时中国古代统计思想的发展状况进行了研究。     

Characterizing persistent disturbing behavior using longitudinal and multivariate techniques

Persistent disturbing behavior (PDB) refers to a chronic condition in therapy-resistant psychiatric patients. Since these patients are highly unstable and difficult to maintain in their natural living environment and even in hospital wards, it is important to properly characterize this group. Previous studies in the Belgian province of Limburg indicated that the size of this group was larger than anticipated. Here, using a score calculated from longitudinal psychiatric registration data in 611 patients, we characterize the difference between PDB patients and a set of control patients. These differences are studied both at a given point in time, using discriminant analysis, as well as in terms of the evolution of the score over time, using longitudinal data analysis methods. Further, using clustering techniques, the group of PDB patients is split into two subgroups, characterized in terms of a number of ordinal scores. Such findings are useful from a scientific as well as from an organizational point of view.     

西南联大时期的许宝騄与戴世光

许宝騄、戴世光是我国近现代数理统计和社会经济统计领域的两面旗帜。他们二位在上世纪30年代分别留学英国和美国，获得统计学博士和硕士学位。抗日战争爆发后，分别在1940年、1938年回到昆明，任教西南联大。在极其困难的条件下，他们不仅在算学系、经济学系系统讲授数理统计和社会经济统计等课程，而且作出了有重大国际影响的研究成果。艰苦而乐观的生活趣事既反映了当时特殊的时代背景，更彰显出他们高尚的人格品德。     

中国省际贸易矩阵的估计与应用

基于2012年中国31省市的投入产出表,借鉴国内资金流量表、投入产出分析方法和社会核算矩阵理论编制了中国省际贸易矩阵,估计和分析了各地区省际间贸易往来规模及特征,并进行了各地区贸易往来影响效应的比较。结果发现：北京、海南等省际贸易依存度较高,四川、山东等省内贸易比例较大,江苏、北京等省际贸易总量较大,而青海、西藏等省际贸易总量较小;北京、上海等发达省份之间的贸易往来较为密切,同时一些中部省份是贸易流入的主要地区;北京、上海等呈现较强的影响力和感应度,浙江、江苏等沿海省份有着较强的感应度和较弱的影响力,宁夏、陕西等西部省份呈现较强影响力和较弱的感应度。     

中国经济正在趋向服务化吗？

就中国总体及多数省区市而言,经济服务化趋势以名义增加值、就业和消费支出衡量显著提高,以实际增加值衡量并未明显变化,以服务进出口比重衡量则显示出“逆服务化”倾向。服务相对价格指数上升既可解释服务业实际增加值比重上升乏力,同时也是导致居民服务支出比重上升的首要因素;服务业劳动生产率增长相对滞后是服务业就业份额增长较快的主因;中国在服务消费方面已显露出“成本病”迹象。各省区市服务业实际增加值、就业和消费支出比重等经济服务化数据均支持绝对收敛假说,但服务业实际增加值比重的收敛速度大于其就业,城市居民服务消费支出的收敛速度大于农村地区,各地工业化收敛速度大于其服务化收敛速度。     

Two tests for sequential detection of a change-point in a nonlinear model

In this paper, two tests, based on weighted CUSUM of the least squares residuals, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the literature but for the linear models. It is tested under the null hypothesis, at each sequential observation, that there is no change in the model against a change presence. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is given and its convergence in probability to infinity is proved when a change occurs. These results will allow to build an asymptotic critical region. Next, in order to decrease the type I error probability, a bootstrapped critical value is proposed and a modified test is studied in a similar way. A generalization of the Hájek–Rényi inequality is established.     

A review of some adaptive statistical techniques

We present several methods for full, partial, and practical adaptation. Selector statistics that are measures of skewness, peakedness, and tailweight are used, primarily in estimating loca-tion in some single-sample situations. We note several practical adaptive techniques in current use, including illustrations in-volving stepwise regression, analysis of variance, ridge regres-sion, and splines. We suggest some areas in which future develop-ment of adaptive methods is needed:density estimation; M, R, and L estimation in regression; and dependent data. There is also a need to develop better selector statistics.