Business cycles and fertility dynamics in the United States

Using recent developments in time-series econometrics, this paper investigates the behavior of fertility over the business cycle. The sex-specific unemployment rates, the divorce rate and the fertility rate are shown to be governed by stochastic trends. Furthermore, fertility is determined to be cointegrated with the divorce rate.In the bivariate vector-autoregressions between fertility and unemployment, an increase in the female or male unemployment rates generate a decrease in fertility, which is consistent with the findings of previous time-series research concerning the procyclical behavior of fertility. However, when the models include the divorce rate and the proportion of young marriages as additional regressors, shocks to the unemployment rates bring about an increase in fertility, implying the countercyclicality of fertility. This outcome holds for the time period 1948–1982, as well as 1972–1982.I would like to thank Clive Granger, Michael Grossman, Theodore Joyce, Salih Neftei, Jeffrey Zax and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Any errors reflect my shortcomings only. This paper is the revised version of the National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 3177. It has not undergone the review accorded official NBER publications; in particular, it has not been submitted for approval by the Board of Directors.     

Comparative study on demographic-economic model-building for three selected countries of the ESCAP region

The research project involves building models for 3 selected ESCAP countries, Indonesia, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, which are at different stages of demographic transition. This project involves country level research workd esigned, implemented, and monitored with the assistance of ESCAP. Accordingly the 1st Study Directors' Meeting was held in Bangkok during November 16-30, 1979 in a series of informal interactive working sessions for Study Directors, modelling experts, and resource persons. The participants were Study Directors from the above mentioned countries and a few experts from Malaysia, Thailand, ILO, UNRISD, and IBRD. The main objective of the meeting was to help finance the basic model framework in order that National Study Directors will be able to commence their modelling work after the Meeting. As evidenced by the Report of the 1st Study Directors' Meeting, this objective was achieved. Following this meeting, the 3 case studies are being simultaneously undertaken in countries by national study teams with technical support provided by ESCAP.     

How China plans births

Dr. Deborah Oakley, a Zero Population Growth Board member who has visited China recently, reports that birth planning in that country has been very effective, resulting in a decline in the birthrate to almost the level of the U.S. birthrate. The Chinese officials informed Oakley and the rest of her party that birth control is "ideological work," and 3 slogans predominate in this work - marry late, prolong the spacing between children, and have few children. The persuasion and the actual pills to accomplish "birth planning" are dispensed by health workers and commune leaders in every work place or community. Oakley relates that she saw no evidence of the more coercive family planning measures reported by some China travelers and notes that every married woman not breast-feeding or trying to have a child appears to be using contraception.     

Evaluating the demographic impact of societal events through intervention analysis: The brown vs. Board of Education decision

Using intervention analysis--a time-series technique gaining increasing use for analyzing the impacts of policy decisions/historic events--this paper reexamines the hypothesis offered by Rindfuss et al., that one consequence of the Brown vs. Board of Education decision in 1954 was a temporary decline in childbearing by white southerners. With data from the 11 former Confederate states, alternative Box-Jenkins/intervention models were estimated to identify/quantify such a decline, but no statistical evidence of a temporary shift in southern white fertility could be found.     

The European Defence Agency on Europe's Future in a Globalizing World

For a number of years the European Union has been building a common European security and defense policy. The European Defence Agency (EDA) was established in 2004 “to support the Member States and the Council [of Ministers of the EU] in their effort to improve European defence capabilities in the field of crisis management and to sustain the European Security and Defence Policy.” A report prepared by EDA under the title An Initial Long‐Term Vision for European Defence Capability and Capacity Needs was submitted to the Agency's Steering Board (the decisionmaking body on which the Defense Ministers of the Agency's 24 participating member states sit) on 3 October 2006. The report was endorsed by the Board “as a reasonable foundation for the EDA's medium‐to‐long‐term agendas.” The 28‐page document addresses its topic with a 20‐year perspective in a global setting. It finds the perspective “sobering, with the central predictions of demography and economics foreshadowing a Europe which, two decades hence, will be older, less pre‐eminently prosperous, and surrounded by regions (including Africa and the Middle East) which may struggle to cope with the consequences of globalisation.” Excerpts from the report are reproduced below. Paragraph numbers have been omitted. The full report is accessible at « http://www.eda.europa.eu/ltv/ltv.htm ».     

Consensual Versus Heterogeneous Conceptions of Nationhood: The Role of Citizenship Regimes and Integration Policies Across 21 European Countries

Conceptions of nationhood (i.e., who is accepted as a member of the national ingroup) are known to be more open in countries with inclusive citizenship and integration policies. Yet, surprisingly, up to now no research has investigated whether the sharedness of these conceptions is related to national policies. Therefore, relying on data from the 2013 International Social Survey Programme, the present study examined to which extent individuals living in 188 regions of 21 European countries share similar conceptions of who is a “true” member of the nation. Both ethnic (e.g., having national ancestry) and civic (e.g., respecting national laws and institutions) criteria were considered. Multilevel analyses revealed that in countries with more inclusive policies (with inclusive citizenship regimes, and where immigrants are granted more political rights) the average regional importance granted to ethnic criteria was lower, and conceptions were more heterogeneous (i.e., less shared). Civic criteria—that are achievable—were deemed more important. This can explain the lower heterogeneity of civic conceptions of nationhood and the lack of impact of national policies (though the average regional importance of these criteria was higher where immigrants had more rights). Overall, these results suggest that inclusive as opposed to exclusive settings leave more room for differing worldviews.

     

Did fertility go up after the oklahoma city bombing? An analysis of births in metropolitan counties in Oklahoma, 1990–1999

Political and sociocultural events (e.g., Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 and the German reunification in 1989) and natural disasters (e.g., Hurricane Hugo in 1989) can affect fertility. In our research, we addressed the question of whether the Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995, a man-made disaster, influenced fertility patterns in Oklahoma. We defined three theoretical orientations--replacement theory, community influence theory, and terror management theory--that motivate a general expectation of birth increases, with different predictions emerging from time and geographic considerations. We used two different empirical methodologies. First, we fitted dummy-variable regression models to monthly birth data from 1990 to 1999 in metropolitan counties. We used birth counts to frame the problem and general fertility rates to address the problem formally. These analyses were organized within two design structures: a control-group interrupted time-series design and a difference-in-differences design. In these analyses, Oklahoma County showed an interpretable, consistent, and significant increase in births. Second, we used graphical smoothing models to display these effects visually. In combination, these methods provide compelling support for a fertility response to the Oklahoma City bombing. Certain parts of each theory helped us organize and understand the pattern of results.     

Drag queens' use of language and the performance of blurred gendered and racial identities

Building on Barrett (1998), this study provides a sociolinguistic analysis of the language used by Suzanne, a European-American drag queen, during her on-stage performance in the southeastern United States. Suzanne uses wigs and costumes to portray a female character on stage, but never hides the fact that she is biologically male. She is also a member of a predominantly African-American cast. Through her creative use of linguistic features such as stylemixing (i.e., the use of linguistic features shared across multiple language varieties) and expletives, Suzanne is able to perform an identity that frequently blurs gender and racial lines.     

Caring for vulnerable populations: curricula in U.S. internal medicine residencies

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) encourages internal medicine training programs to include specific curricula devoted to health care issues of vulnerable populations. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of curricula involving selected vulnerable populations among U.S. Internal Medicine residencies. We conducted a survey of Program Directors of all US Internal Medicine Residencies assessing whether the program had a curriculum for six vulnerable populations (racial and ethnic minorities, non-English speaking patients, lesbians, gay men, victims of domestic violence and patients with substance abuse problems). Most residencies address substance abuse and victims of domestic violence, while there remains a lack of dedicated teaching on other vulnerable populations, including lesbians, gay men, racial and ethnic minorities and non-English speaking patients.     

Fertility and eugenics: Singapore's population policies

Singapore, after serving for two decades as a model for Third World birth control and economic development programs, is now abandoning its earlier population policies in favor of encouraging dramatic population growth. The initial eugenics-based program introduced in 1984 sought increased fertility for university-educated women and provided major subsidies for the voluntary sterilization of poor and uneducated parents. These much publicized and internationally discussed programs have now been abandoned in favor of new population programs seeking to encourage fertility in lower as well as better educated groups. A forty percent population increase is being set as a goal. To accomplish this the effective Singapore Family Planning and Population Board has been abolished and Housing Development Board policies are in the process of being reversed to encourage rather than discourage fertility.The research reported here was partially funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and by a grant from the Population Council's International Research Awards Program on the Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries, a program funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.     

Predictors of satisfaction with housing and neighbourhood: A nationwide study in the Republic of Ireland

The present paper reports results from a nationwide study, based on a representative sample in the Republic of Ireland. It is part of a harmonised study of subjective social indicators which has been carried out in eight member countries of the European Community. The data, which were obtained by survey techniques, are largely subjective or perceptual in nature. However, objective data were also obtained, thus permitting direct comparisons, in many cases, between objective conditions and subjective measures related to housing and neighbourhood to determine which characteristics were most highly predictive of overall satisfaction with housing and overall satisfaction with neighbourhood. In addition, the relationships between housing and neighbourhood variables and more global attitudinal variables (i.e., life satisfaction and anomia) were explored.     

Deworming/family planning project launched on estate

A deworming/family planning project funded by JOICFP was successfully initiated in Kerling Estate, Kuala Kubu Bahru, Malaysia. Rapport between estate management, workers, and the National Family Planning Board helped establish the project. A recent Gotong-Royong or community self-help project had encouraged enthusiasm among workers to clean up the estate. Mothers were exhorted to plan their families and devote attention to the health and welfare of the children. The need for parents to understand the causes of infestation and educate their children to wear slippers or shoes and develop good toilet habits was emphasized by Dr. Nor Laily Aziz. Continuing National Family Planning Board and Government support was pledged.     

“Open to all and everybody”? The Irish Film Board: accounting for the scarcity of women screenwriters

Despite the many social and cultural changes that have occurred in Irish society since the Irish Film Board was re-established in 1993, the Irish film industry remains strongly male dominated. Specifically, Irish women constitute a minority of produced screenwriters and writer/directors. This article contributes to an understanding of the discursive resources that key decision makers in the Irish Film Board draw upon in order to talk about gender. A number of interpretative repertoires are used to rationalize its position in relation to the dearth of women screenwriters, four of which are examined here: evasion and deflection; gender neutrality; project-led funding; and a difficulty making sense of entrenched gender issues, articulated here as “I don’t know.” Within the respondents’ repertoires an ideological dilemma can be identified in the conceptualization of gender as both relevant and irrelevant.     

"You're a what?": family member reactions to the disclosure of homosexuality

The present review summarizes what is known about reactions of family members to disclosure of homosexual identity, both within the family of origin and in families where the disclosing member is a spouse or parent. It is suggested that the traumatic nature of family member reaction consists of two related processes: (a) the application of negative values about homosexuality to the disclosing member, and (b) a perception that homosexual identity negates or violates previous family roles. Future research in this complex and understudied area could reveal much about the nature of both homosexual identity and family relationships.     

An Assessment of EU 2020 Strategy: Too Far to Reach?

In 2010, EU adopted a new growth strategy which includes three growth priorities and five headline targets to be reached by 2020. The aim of this paper is to investigate the current performance of the EU member and candidate states in achieving these growth priorities and the overall strategy target by allocating the headline targets into the priorities and the priorities into the strategy by the use of a composite indicator methodology. The paper determines how far away each member and candidate state is from the targeted levels of the priorities and the strategy by making a distinction between EU 15 and relatively new member states as well. The developed composite indices enable the observation of the performances of the member and candidate states in a single indicator for the overall strategy and each growth priority. The results of the strategy index and three growth priority indices show that Nordic states possess the highest index scores already having reached many of the targets; many new member states performed as good as EU 15 and some EU 15 states are placed at the bottom of the ranking with quite poor performance in reaching the EU 2020 strategy.     

Alcoholics anonymous and gay American men

Self-help groups can be powerful tools for self-change. Thus, counselors and other professionals are wise to consider referrals to such groups when possible. In this article, the nature of self-help groups is explored in general, and Alcoholics Anonymous (A.A.) in particular. A.A. was chosen because it is the "grandparent" of all 12-Step groups, it has proven effective over time, and because of the pandemic incidence of alcoholism among homosexual American men. Therefore, professionals should be well aware of this invaluable resource for the treatment of alcoholism. This article explores the homosexual alcoholic man in relation to A.A., as well as how professionals may be supportive of the gay A.A. member. Finally, some suggestions are provided about how rural homosexual alcoholic men might be better treated.     

The future of the Australian midwifery workforce – impacts of ageing and workforce exit on the number of registered midwives

ProblemEnsuring an adequate supply of the midwife workforce will be essential to meet the future demands for maternity care within Australia.BackgroundAim: To project the overall number of midwives registered with the Nursing and Midwifery Board of Australia and the timing of their retirement to 2043 based upon the ageing of the population.Methods: Using data on the number of registered midwives released by the Nursing and Midwifery Board of Australia we calculated the five-year cumulative attrition rate of each five-year age group. This attrition rate was then utilized to estimate the number of midwives registered in each five-year time period from 2018 to 2043. We then estimated the number of midwives that would be registered after also accounting for stated retirement intentions.FindingsBetween 2018 and 2023 the overall number of registered midwives will decline from 28,087 to 26,642. After this time there is expected to be growth in the total number, reaching 28,392 in 2028 and 55,747 in 2043. If midwives did relinquish their registration at a rate indicated in previous workforce satisfaction surveys, the overall number of registered midwives would decline to 19,422 in 2023, and remain below 2018 levels until 2038.DiscussionDue to the age distribution of the current registered midwifery workforce the imminent retirement of a large proportion of the workforce will see a decline in the number of registered midwives in the coming years. Additional retirement due to workforce dis-satisfaction may exacerbate this shortfall.     

Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?

In 2001, more than half of Europe's population lived in countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) at or below 1.3. Use of the adjusted TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney, which takes into account the effects of the ongoing fertility postponement, changes the European fertility map considerably. All 27 countries analyzed had adjusted TFRs in 1995–2000 above 1.4. Thus, the “lowest‐low” fertility in Europe may be interpreted as a temporary consequence of the increasing age at motherhood. However, substantial regional differences in fertility level across Europe persist even when the differential pace of fertility postponement is taken into account. The estimated adjusted TFRs in Europe (1.63) and in the 25‐member European Union (1.71) contrast with the TFR levels of 1.40 and 1.46, respectively. These seemingly small differences have vastly different implications in terms of the potential long‐term pace of population decline.     

Post-1969 Immigration and the Example of the Insolvency of the Social Security System

Advocates of immigration to save Social Security (S.S.) assume that a pay-as-you-go system will work over the long run. That assumption is not shared by the Social Security Board of Trustees. Reflection shows that it would entail ever-larger new cohorts of immigrants to support those who are retiring, in effect, a Ponzi scheme. In fact, the benefits structure of the S.S. system, which pays out proportionately more to low-wage earners than to high-wage earners relative to their contributions, taken together with the income profile of post-1969 immigrants, means that the more immigration which occurs, the deeper into insolvency the system falls.     

Should International Migration Be Encouraged to Offset Population Aging? A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Attitudes in Europe

Concerns about population aging in Europe have occupied the attention of policy makers and demographers for over a decade. Some policy makers have proposed increased immigration to offset the aging of the population (i.e., replacement migration). However, demographers have estimated that a very high (and likely untenable) level of immigration would be required, and little is known about whether the national publics of Europe would support international migration as a potential solution to population aging. Using Eurobarometer data from 2006 and concurrent country-level measures from Eurostat, this study examines individual- and contextual-level factors related to public attitudes toward immigration as an effective solution to the problem of population aging in the current 27 member countries of the European Union. Results from multilevel logit analyses indicate that urban, university-educated, and childless individuals are consistently more likely than others to endorse replacement migration. Countries with more prosperous economies and proportionally fewer foreign-born residents also show more supportive attitudes. Such results echo research on anti-immigrant sentiment, suggesting considerable public resistance to population policies that might encourage large-scale immigration. At the same time, these findings show consistent patterns of endorsement despite demographers’ criticism of the concept of replacement migration and concerns about developing alternative long-term strategies.